I have always felt that for all the blabbing we do -- or blogging, in my case -- we should try as best we can to be accountable for our good and bad calls. This report is long overdue, but I will post it anyway since all of my past year's picks and results have been made public.

The market was very harsh in the early part of 2009, filling investors fear and trepidation, and sinking to a March 9, 2009 bottom. Perhaps some of the bleeding has stopped, but the economy has not healed as bears and bulls seem to carry the day, or every other day.

Continue reading Chasing Value™: 2009 Results Crushed the S&P 500

Chasing Value™: 2009 Results Crushed the S&P 500 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 31 Aug 2010 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Ten stocks for 2010 -- Part 9 + Apple

Chasing Value: Ten stocks for 2010 -- Part 9 + Apple originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 10 Dec 2009 15:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Ten stocks for 2010 Part 8: Making some cuts

Chasing Value: Ten stocks for 2010 Part 8: Making some cuts originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 09 Dec 2009 13:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Ten stocks for 2010 -- Part 1

Chasing Value: Ten stocks for 2010 -- Part 1 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 11 Nov 2009 16:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2009 blazing picks -- Q3 review

Chasing Value: 2009 blazing picks -- Q3 review originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 10 Nov 2009 14:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading AAUKY's mysterious delisting follow-up: a small tidbit of news

AAUKY's mysterious delisting follow-up: a small tidbit of news originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 04 Aug 2009 16:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading AAUK: Now you see it, now you don't

AAUK: Now you see it, now you don't originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 03 Aug 2009 16:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The second quarter is now behind us and for the most part it was a positive one in terms of the market pushing higher almost 40%. This is the second review of my 2009 stock picks through June 30 (see: Chasing Value: 9 picks for 2009 -- APC, GE, ISRG, WFC and more). There was a lot of talk about green shoots this past quarter as Wall Street was looking for any small bit of optimistic data to support the market.

The federal printing presses continued to run at full speed pushing the dollar lower and oil prices higher. While the feds were printing money to cover their deficits, the States do not have that same luxury and many of them are having trouble balancing their budgets to the tune of billions of dollars.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 2009 picks 731% better than S&P -- 2nd quarter review

Chasing Value: 2009 picks 731% better than S&P -- 2nd quarter review originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 02 Jul 2009 18:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Serious Money: Anglo American - Xstrata merger?

Serious Money: Anglo American - Xstrata merger? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 22 Jun 2009 09:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Anglo American upgrade/downgrade

Chasing Value: Anglo American upgrade/downgrade originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 27 Feb 2009 17:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Anglo American cuts 19,000 jobs & dividend

Chasing Value: Anglo American cuts 19,000 jobs & dividend originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 20 Feb 2009 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Anybody have capital gains to show this year? I didn't think so. Not unless you were shorting the market, and in particular financials. I got clobbered with everyone else. There were not many places to hide. Picking winners was like guessing where each piece of debris would land after the tornado moved through town.

The average crystal ball is looking quite foggy about now, nevertheless I have rummaged throughout the stock market to select nine stocks that I think offer more reward than risk. The market is priced for the worst in so many cases that I think the list could have included 50 companies without too much trouble.

In 2007 and 2008 I owned some but not all of the picks for the year. This year I own all of the stocks and they were all acquired in the latter part of the fourth quarter for a new portfolio.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 9 picks for 2009 -- APC, GE, ISRG, WFC and more

Chasing Value: 9 picks for 2009 -- APC, GE, ISRG, WFC and more originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 31 Dec 2008 12:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Inflation protection with gold & platinum (AAUK)

Chasing Value: Inflation protection with gold & platinum (AAUK) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 10 Dec 2008 13:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Anglo American (NASDAQ: AAUK) owns a range of assets covering gold, platinum, diamonds, coals ferrous and base metals.

AAUK was up 34 cents to $33.09 in pre-open trading. AAUK has a market cap of $86 billion. Gold is recently trading at $905.90 according to Bloomberg.

AAUK overall option implied volatility of 47 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Option Update: Anglo American volatility flat: Gold traded $905 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 26 Jun 2008 10:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

After five months of tracking my 2008 picks, it is rewarding to finally have a breakthrough -- topping the three major stock indices and Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) too. It has been painful to have to report each month that I was being bested. However, since I have not seen anything contradicting my original rationale for my eight picks I stood my ground.

This past month saw great improvement. For the first time since I posted the original story Chasing Value: Final list -- 8 stocks for 2008, five of the eight stocks are up:

Moving into positive territory by pennies was Loews Corporation (NYSE: LTR). Among its holdings is a 51% stake in Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. (NYSE: DO) that has been doing well as the world remains desperate for more oil and natural gas.

Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) was the other stock to cross the line into the black, while Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), although improving, remains my worst performer. It is still down almost 28% after five months.

The gap between the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the technology heavy NASDAQ Composite Index narrowed substantially so that the three are tracking each other very closely. Stocks like Apple, Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) continue to gain significantly and their outlooks have not been shaken amid overall pessimistic economic forecasts.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 8 stocks for 2008 -- May beats all

Chasing Value: 8 stocks for 2008 -- May beats all originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 02 Jun 2008 13:01:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This month saw great improvement after last month's disaster. Having to conclude my findings on a specific month end day, or any day, depending on the news, sometimes distorts results. For example news on March 31 sent the market down and on April first my picks shot up an unusual amount; hopefully the trend will continue.

My riskiest stock pick Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE: NCT) was down the most in March but recovered about 35% of the loss in April leaving Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) the dubious honor of being my worst performer, down over 30% in the first four months of the year.

April showed improvement as many companies reported positive earnings reports or beat expectations.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained some ground in April as did the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, and the technology heavy NASDAQ Composite Index was up with stocks like Apple, Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) improving significantly on very strong reports. Google is up over 25%.

Most of my picks improved. Higher food prices no doubt helped Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) which recaptured losses moving up 23% from its recent bottom. My two winners Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor, and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) were joined by a third, Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) which had a 10% swing entering positive territory.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 8 stocks for 2008 -- April Bunge's back

Chasing Value: 8 stocks for 2008 -- April Bunge's back originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 01 May 2008 15:58:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

After three months it is time to face the facts: two of the three indices beat my picks handily. I have not made a good showing so far and unlike most investment idea sources, I feel obliged to air my dirty laundry for all to see.

My riskiest stock pick Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE:NCT) is down almost 37% this year, and the energy stocks did almost as poorly even though fuel prices are near all-time highs. The downers were not offset by this months' repeat winners.

March was a seesaw battle, but in the end there was not much to show for it. However, unlike the last day of January (down 370 points in the Dow) and February's last trading day (down 315 points), March had a final day of plus 46.49, which is not very meaningful.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave some ground in March as did the Standard & Poor's 500 Index while the technology heavy NASDAQ Composite Index was marginally up with stocks like Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) improving notably.

Most of my picks sagged a little more, while two remain in positive territory. Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor is up and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) is way up.

Continue reading Chasing Value: March review -- 8 stocks for 2008 -- not so refined

Chasing Value: March review -- 8 stocks for 2008 -- not so refined originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 07 Apr 2008 15:18:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Thomas Weisel upgraded Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) to Overweight from Market Weight, citing a re-set in FY08 expectations and expected growth from Mac market share gains, accelerating iPhone revenue growth and increased iPhone ASPs.
  
• WestLB upgraded shares of AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) to Add from Hold as they believe the company's growth in core franchises are being overlooked.
  
• Citigroup upgraded KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) to Buy from Hold , as they believe several near-term catalysts are likely to develop against an increasingly favorable cyclical backdrop. They think KLAC's near-term business is better than most think and maintain a $56 target on the stock.

• Goldman upgraded Anglo American (NASDAQ: AAUK) to Buy from Neutral and added shares to the Conviction Buy List.
  
• UBS (NYSE: UBS) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill and added to the Europe 1 List.
  
• Jefferies raised comScore (NASDAQ: SCOR) to Buy from Hold.

Analyst upgrades: AAPL, UBS, AZN and KLAC originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 07 Apr 2008 11:08:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• In a deal that values Global Ship Lease at about $500M, the Wall Street Journal reported that Marathon Acquisition Corp. (AMEX: MAQ) is expected to acquire a majority stake, or 66%, in the firm that acquires and charters vessels to container shipping companies.
• Activist investors are moving in on Circuit City Stores Inc (NYSE: CC), which is expected to result in a change of management as the company's turnaround efforts have failed and many investors have jumped ship, according to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street".

• JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE: JPM) was in talks last night about raising its bid for The Bear Stearns Companies Inc (NYSE: BSC) by 500% in order to appease angry Bear shareholders who have vowed to fight the deal, the New York Times reported.

• The mining industry is consolidating, Business Week noted, and investment pro Richard Steinberg, sees Anglo American Plc (NASDAQ: AAUK) as a possible takeover target due to its sizable deposits of platinum and ferrous and nonferrous metals.
• Perfect World Co Ltd (NASDAQ: PWRD), a big player in China for online gaming, has seen its share price shoot up to $37 in October, up from $16 back in July, Business Week reported, and then slide back down to $21.90, attracting investors again.
• Business Week reported that investors are flocking to overseas investments and opportunities as they have become spooked by Bear Stearns' collapse, and the prospect of a protracted U.S. financial crisis or recession. John Maloney, president of M&R Capital Management says it makes sense to put money in non-U.S. investments, particularly in Liberty Global Inc (NASDAQ: LBTYA), a major cable company.

Newspaper wrap-up: JPMorgan in talks to increase offer for Bear originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 24 Mar 2008 07:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Earlier in the week I posted about finding the market bottom using that age-old handheld calculator, a white paper napkin. So, unfortunately it looks like I may be right again. Not exactly something I was hoping for, but if it has to be, it has to be. I wonder if my old napkin can outperform Wall Street super computers?

Is this an auction to the bottom? Are investors bidding things down instead of up? Looks like it from all the negative sentiment. Consumer sentiment is down, and short sellers are all excited, increasing their negative positions to new highs every day.

And here is the all-telling sign of capitulation: the ever-lying overly optimistic government is starting to admit how bad things are and throwing hundreds of billions of dollars at the problem. When does the turnaround come?

Continue reading Dow below 12,000 -- do I hear 11,000? Yes I do!

Dow below 12,000 -- do I hear 11,000? Yes I do! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 07 Mar 2008 15:02:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.