AnnTaylor (NYSE: ANN), whose colleagues include Liz Claiborne (NYSE: LIZ) and Talbots (NYSE: TLB), reported Q2 earnings stats that beat the views of Wall Street. The retailer said it made $0.54 per share in the second quarter versus $0.51 per share earned in the similar period a year ago. These bottom-line results are on an adjusted basis. According to Reuters, analysts were looking for about $0.49 per share. So that's a nice $0.05 beat.
The bottom line may have surprised analysts, but other parts of the story didn't excite me. The top line decreased by almost 4%. Same-store sales took a big dive, declining pretty near 11%. Comps are an important metric for retailers, and a significant decrease like this one always makes investors cautious. Management cited low traffic levels as a driver of the dismal comps. Seems to me like someone at the chain needs to rethink the current marketing campaigns. The gross margin did improve, though, so at least there's that.
After reading through the earnings release, it became quite apparent to me that management is clearly worried about the economy going forward. They're right, I think the rest of the year may indeed be rough on the consumer. With such weak stats, I think it would be hard to make a case for buying AnnTaylor's stock. If you're a contrarian and think the company will consistently beat earnings from this point on, and you turn out to be right, then buying the stock now might make for a good trade. But I'd have to hear good reasons for such a bullish case. I think it's entirely possible that AnnTaylor's shares trend lower from here. No matter what, I won't be putting this retailer on my personal watch list. My advice to the company: get traffic through the door with more innovative promotional schemes.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
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Revenues of $580.3 million had been previously announced. Management also guided FY08 EPS to $2.15-$2.25, versus consensus of $2.17. The CEO noted that the company had become more efficient, having made significant progress in the areas of sourcing and systems. The ANN share price popped through 30-day, 50-day and 200-day moving average resistance on the news and has since begun to define a bullish "flag" consolidation pattern. Stocks frequently exit flags moving in the same direction they were traveling when they entered them. In this case, that would be to the upside.


