The Dow was up nearly 500 points on Friday. Everything's fine, right? Not on your life. It's going to be a lousy Christmas for mall retailers such as Gap (NYSE: GPS) and Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), and it might be especially lousy for AnnTaylor (NYSE: ANN). What a pathetic story this one is.
AnnTaylor reported earnings for the third quarter yesterday, and it's stock closed down more than 9% on better-than-average volume. Here's why: the bottom line broke even on an adjusted basis, the analysts were calling for a penny earnings per share, and same-store sales plummeted -- I mean plummeted -- more than 19%. Those comps fell like the public approval rating of a CEO's compensation package in the context of the current economic quagmire (well, actually, they didn't fall that badly). The fact that the stock dropped only about 9% is pretty amazing. I think the decline should have gone well into the double digits. After all, management at AnnTaylor really has no idea how its Christmas season will ultimately turn out. Well, they have a little bit of an idea. They know it's going to stink. Badly. I suppose it was the euphoria of the day that kept a check on the stock's decline.
Retail is in the doghouse. Even biggies like Walmart (NYSE: WMT) and Target (NYSE: TGT) are going to have to hustle more than ever before to keep ahead of their competitors in this dreadful recessionary environment and hope that they can convince their shoppers to pull out as much of the green stuff as possible at their respective points of sale. It won't be easy. And if the big brand names are finding it challenging out there, then a colleague like AnnTaylor might not have much of a chance of bringing traffic out from the cold and onto the sales floor. As far as the shares go, I think they will be heading lower. I mean, I don't think there's much of a mystery there. I can't see what would possibly make the shares go higher from here. Then again, we have been trading on an irrational playfield as of late, so I do suppose anything is possible. For me, I'll stay away from AnnTaylor and make certain that my portfolio has nothing to do with it.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
Last week, JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) posted a quarterly loss and lowered its guidance. But as interest in alternative energy continues to grow, analysts polled by Thomson Financial are still looking for good things from solar energy concerns scheduled to report earnings this week.
Strong growth at Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) in the third quarter prompted it to lift its guidance back in October. Analysts expect the Chinese company to post profits that are 76.3% higher than a year ago, or $1.18 per share on revenues of $268.4 million (+225.0%). Though Trina Solar missed estimates in the second quarter, analysts on average recommend buying TSL. Shares are down 81.4% from a year ago and trading near an all-time low.
Earnings of rival LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) are expect to have risen 47.9% to $0.71 per share on revenues of $486.7 million (+206.6%). Also based in China, LDK has not missed estimates in recent quarters; in fact, it blew past expectations in the second quarter. Yet the consensus recommendation is to hold LDK. Like Trina Solar, LDK's shares are trading near an all-time low; the share price has fallen 50.0% in the past year.
Analysts anticipate third-quarter earnings for Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) to be a whopping 96.3% higher than a year ago, or $0.54 per share on revenues of $248.0 million (+154.5%). The company easily topped estimates in the previous quarter. ReneSola Ltd. (NYSE: SOL) and Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) are also expected to report earnings growth of 29.7% ($0.37 per share) and 23.8% ($0.42 per share), respectively. All three of these stocks reached 52-week lows last week, and all are considered buys.
All retailers want their workers to operate in an efficient manner. Question is, how should companies like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), Target (NYSE: TGT), and Gap (NYSE: GPS) accomplish the goal of eliminating inefficiencies?
One way is to use productivity software to coerce employees into making sure they are putting forth their best effort. An excellent article at The Wall Street Journal shows how AnnTaylor (NYSE: ANN) is using computer monitoring to ensure that workers are aware of their strengths and weaknesses when it comes to selling. According to the article, employees are made aware of their average sales per hour and the yield per transaction. If you don't pull your weight, you won't get scheduled as much. In fact, the article implies that it isn't unheard of for an employee to go from 30 hours one week to 8 the next. Again, it's all based on your stats. If you sell more, you work more.
It's that simple, and as one might imagine, the adjective "Darwinian" came up in the discussion. That's because this philosophy of linking hours to performance has upped the competitive ante among a store's team. I think this is one of the problems that such a system creates. If employees are at each other's throats trying to score a sale, then the team dynamic disintegrates. That is never a good thing. Indeed, team unity rules in any organization, and it is paramount when it comes to good customer service.
Rival home improvement chains Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) and Lowe's Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) are scheduled to report quarterly results this week. Not surprisingly, given the ongoing housing slump, analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial on average expect both companies to post earnings lower than in the same period a year ago. For Home Depot, that's 61 cents per share, down 20.8%, and for Lowe's, 56 cents per share, down 16.4%. Meanwhile, cabinet maker American Woodmark Corp. (NASDAQ: AMWD), for whom Home Depot and Lowe's are major distributors, is also expected to report lower earnings: 11 cents per share, down 67.6%.
The presidential campaigns have prompted much discussion of energy policy and alternative energy sources. Some solar-energy-related concerns are scheduled to report this week, and expectations seem to be high. Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) is expected to report 81 cents per share earnings, up 67.9%; ReneSola Ltd. (NYSE: SOL) is expected to post earnings of 32 cents per share, up 62.5%; and Suntech Power Holdings Co. (NYSE: STP) is expected to have earnings of 32 cents per share, up 21.9%. Even China Sunergy Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: CSUN) is expected to have swung to a profit of 3 cents per share, from a per-share loss of 14 cents a year ago.
Crude surpassed $126.00 before retreating down by $1.85 to $124.11 late in the day. Many are citing that the interest in owning the dollar is also partly to thank for today's gains. Below are the unofficial closing bell prices for major index levels:
AnnTaylor Stores Corp. (NYSE: ANN) rose today after it forecast that first quarter profit will exceed projections. Additionally, the women's apparel store reported its plans to drop its older women fall line but push the opening of its Loft outlets. Shares were up 16% at $28.50 in the final minutes of trading.
The company said that better-than-expected results at its LOFT stores as well as lower inventories and better expense management overall contributed to the results. Yes, surprising investors is always good, but it's also always good to remain a little cautious with such news. The company itself warned about the rest of the year, leaving its full-year forecast unchanged.
Of course, the question is what's ahead for AnnTaylor. One answer already came today from the company when it said it would shelve a new store concept targeting baby boomers. But following the success of LOFT, the retailer is aggressively launching an outlet version of the brand. Is it smart? It certainly seems that in the current economic climate increasing lower-priced offerings would allow AnnTaylor to keep cash-strapped customers while offering them budget clothes in a familiar brand.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Seagate, Nortel Networks and Ann Taylor were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Thomas Weisel downgraded Seagate (NYSE: STX) to Market Weight from Overweight as they believe the company's growth will be more muted given high existing market share and overall industry growth.
Baird downgraded Nortel (NYSE: NT) to Neutral from Outperform citing checks that indicate deteriorating US Enterprise sales in the last few weeks of Q1. The firm now expects companies to guide flat QoQ instead of up and to make cautious 2H08 comments.
Ann Taylor (NYSE: ANN) was cut to Neutral from Buy at Piper to reflect concerns over the LOFT division as well as consumer spending.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Citigroup lowered TJX Cos (NYSE: TJX) to Hold from Buy.
WestLB downgraded to Hold from Add Novartis (NYSE: NVS).
Barron's Online's "Inside Scoop" column reported that director James Burke purchased $1.1M worth of AnnTaylor Stores Corporation (NYSE: ANN) stock on Friday, marking the first open-market purchase by an AnnTaylor insider in at least five years, according to InsiderScore.com.
OTHER PAPERS:
According to the U.K. Times, British bank Barclays (NYSE: BCS) has invested $1.5B in Golden Key, a fund that has gotten into trouble as a result of the global liquidity squeeze.
Aluminum company Alcan Inc (NYSE: AL) is reportedly in talks to sell its packaging unit to India's Essel Group, reported the Economic Times.
Music publishers have intensified their efforts to shut down popular Web sites that publish song lyrics without permission, reported the New York Post. The publishers are also demanding that Google Inc (NASDAQ: GOOG) and Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) remove all references to the offending sites from their search engines.
A day after women's clothing retailer Ann Taylor (NYSE: ANN) announced a 5 percent drop in same-store sales in July, it was also announced that chief financial officer James M. Smith would be leaving to "pursue other interests" as of the end of September. Ann Taylor is seeking a successor. The share price fell 3.5 percent to $28.44 Friday.
Same-store sales for July 2006 grew from the previous period by about 5 percent. The drop in July 2007 is due in large part to same-store sales of Ann Taylor LOFT, which decreased 9.3%, compared to an increase of 8.3% in the prior year. According to president and CEO Kay Krill: "We are aggressively managing the business through this period of macro-economic softness and, while we continue to believe that we are positioned for a good Fall season, we are prudently planning our business for an uncertain second half."
About Smith's departure, Krill says, "We are grateful to Jim for his service to the company over the past 14 years. We are pleased that he has agreed to stay on to support a smooth transition. ... On behalf of our board and all of our associates, we thank Jim for his many contributions to the company over the years and wish him well as he pursues new opportunities."
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Merck (MRK), McMoRan Exploration (MMR), TheStreet.com (TSCM), Goodrich Petroleum (GDP) and Coventry Health (CVH) were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Cowen is optimistic on Merck's (NYSE: MRK) business momentum, key products, and pipeline, and upgraded the pharmaceutical giant to Outperform from Neutral.
JP Morgan believes the recent discoveries have created a lower risk profile for McMoRan Exploration (NYSE: MMR), upgrading shares to Overweight from Neutral.
Needham upgraded shares of TheStreet.com (NASDAQ: TSCM) to Strong Buy from Buy on the Corsis acquisition as they believe the deal strengthens the company's advertising business.
Jefferies upgraded shares of Goodrich Petroleum (NYSE: GDP) to Buy from Underperform as they believe success at the James Lime development program will grow production and cash flow.
Banc of America upgraded Coventry Health (NYSE: CVH) to Neutral from Sell as they believe the company's three recent acquisitions will accelerate growth beginning next year...
OTHER UPGRADES:
WestLB upgraded Nokia (NYSE: NOK) to Buy from Add.
Bear Stearns upgraded Take-Two Interactive Software (NASDAQ: TTWO) to Peer Perform from Underperform and Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) to Outperform from Peer Perform.
The Dow was up nearly 500 points on Friday. Everything's fine, right? Not on your life. It's going to be a lousy Christmas for mall retailers such as Gap (NYSE: GPS) and Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), and it might be especially lousy for AnnTaylor (NYSE: ANN). What a pathetic story this one is.
Last week, 
All retailers want their workers to operate in an efficient manner. Question is, how should companies like 
Rival home improvement chains 
It's been brewing ever so slowly, but 
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