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Chasing Value: Starting 2009 now -- AAUK, APC, DEO, & WFC

Two years ago I assembled a list of stocks for 2007 and last year I did the same for 2008. The first list remains ahead of the market while the latter did poorer than the market at last check. In both cases I owned many of the stocks. In putting together the 2009 list I am doing something different. I own all the stocks in a new portfolio aggregated in the last quarter of this year.

All of them have been written up already. I discussed this in Chasing Value: Annaly Capital Mgmt -- from watch list to buy and later in Chasing Value: Add General Electric to the list. Now I am adding four more stocks to the list which will be completed before the last trading day of this year. All of them have appeared in my Chasing Value column.

Anadarko Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: APC) and Diageo plc (NYSE: DEO) were discussed in Chasing Value: Oil & Booze -- Anadarko & Diageo.

For my view of Anglo American ADR (NASDAQ: AAUK) See: Chasing Value: Anglo American on sale and Chasing Value: Inflation protection with gold & platinum (AAUK).

I have written about Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) many times. In the first quarter I wrote Chasing Value: Wells Fargo may look like a steal in 12 months and most recently I wrote Chasing Value: Wells Fargo the pogo stick.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Starting 2009 now -- AAUK, APC, DEO, & WFC

Chasing Value: Annaly Capital Mgmt -- from watch list to buy

It was only a couple of days ago I posted Serious Money: What's on your watch list? suggesting you had to be ready because you never know when an opportunity might arise to acquire a value proposition.

Then yesterday the market was up but sluggish in anticipation of Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke possibly announcing a cut in the overnight rate, so I pulled the trigger on the one stock I could get at the right right price that was the most interest rate sensitive.

  • Annaly Capital Management (NYSE: NLY) is one of the stocks mentioned in Fortune Magazines "Ten Promising Stocks for 2009" and is currently paying almost a 15% yield at Friday's closing price of $14.92. The company borrows money at short term rates and only invests in long-term Federally backed mortgages. They have avoided subprime loans and derivatives entirely.
I bought NLY for $14.80 per share locking in at an actual yield of 15.01%. Sure enough, Bernanke slashed rates to the bone letting the rate float from 0% to .5% and the DJIA jumped finishing the day up several hundred points, while Annally closed at $15.84, one of my big gainers for the day.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Annaly Capital Mgmt -- from watch list to buy

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Bear needs to play the Fuld card

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says denying liquidity concerns isn't enough. Bear needs mimic Lehman's Fuld and step in as a buyer to stem the talk.

Guess it was only a matter of time before we started hearing about the liquidity problems.

Typical that they start with Bear (NYSE: BSC) (Cramer's Take), it being like the homebuilder who tipped it all off, the first broker that was crushed by a mortgage bet.

Of course the denials come quickly. It's a terrible thing to even have to deny. So much better to keep your mouth shut. But when your stock is being raided down precipitously and your book value of $84 can't be real because what the heck is your stock doing in the $70s, then there's no protection either.

In 1998 it happened to Lehman (NYSE: LEH) (Cramer's Take), and Lehman didn't bottom until Dick Fuld called everyone and his brother not with denials but with bids, as in $31 bid for 1 million Lehman.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Bear needs to play the Fuld card

Analyst upgrades: STD, ACOR, AG, NLY and IMGN

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Banco Santander, Acorda Therapeutics, Agruim, Annaly Capital and ImmunoGen were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • UBS upgraded shares of Banco Santander (NYSE: STD) to Buy from Neutral as they expect the acquisition of ABN Amro Holding NV (NYSE: ABN) assets in Brazil and Italy to boost earnings in 2008 and 2009.
  • Friedman Billings added Acorda Therapeutics (NASDAQ: ACOR) to its Top Picks List, as they have confidence in fampridine-SR's safety profile.
  • Agrium (NYSE: AGU) was upgraded to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC on valuation, as they believe the outlook for wholesale and retail is robust with all three nutrients at historical high levels.
  • Annaly Capital Management (NYSE: NLY) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS, citing likely further FED cuts, benefits from recent secondary, and BVPS growth.
  • RBC Capital upgraded shares of ImmunoGen (NASDAQ: IMGN) to Outperform from Sector Perform based on valuation, growing pipeline, valuable technology platform, and potential as an acquisition candidate.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Annaly: a way to play the slowing economy

You have to be hard pressed to find economic data indicating the economy is not slowing down. Retail sales, almost universally, are weakening, if not in a material decline. Annaly Capital Management Inc (NYSE: NLY) may be a way to play it.

Annaly is a real estate investment trust that invests in mortgage-backed securities backed by Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE). It makes money based on the spread of its cost of capital versus the return on its mortgage portfolio. And it is required, due to its REIT nature, to pay out at least 90% of its profits to investors.

If the yield curve steepens due to the Fed dropping rates, and the longer end of the curve does not change much or rates go higher, Annaly earns more money. The risk to Annaly is if short-term rates go higher. Also, portfolio-management risk exists but the company has a good track record of managing that.

Annaly formerly sold at $21 when the yield curve was considerably steeper. For 2006, Annaly earned a meager $0.44 per share, down from $2.67 in 2002. As one would expect, the dividend last year was lower at $0.57, down from $2.67 in 2002. If the Fed lowers rates by 100 bps, Annaly could earn $2.00 per share and revisit the $20 level. Taking into account the dividend and potential for capital appreciation, not a bad total return.

Cramer has two plays: anti-subprime and paper

On last night's MAD MONEY on CNBC, Jim Cramer said he had a stock that can offer some insulation and even some profits from the blow-up in subprime: Annaly Capital Management Inc. (NYSE: NLY).

The CEO, Mike Farrell, predicted the subprime mess and stuck out his neck to reposition his company to profit. Cramer said it is a liquid stock, and claimed he hasn't always been right about it because he doubted it when he shouldn't have. NLY has a 52-week trading range of $11.83 to $15.90, and shares were up 3.5% at $16.11 after hours. Cramer just interviewed the company on a video on the evening of April 10 when the stock closed at $15.64. It closed at $15.55 the next day and closed unchanged at $15.55 yesterday.

Cramer also said that he has a paper trade based on recent events. The ex-Treasury head John Snow at Cerberus is benefiting from the Chinese coated free sheet paper tariff, but Sappi Ltd. (NYSE: SPP) is the one that will benefit from this. The tariffs are intended to be used for magazines, yearbooks, and the like. Sappi is South African, but they are the largest in the U.S., and most of the other companies doing this are private. Cramer thinks it is a trade rather than an investment. SPP rose 2.9% to $17.27 after Cramer called it, above its $17.08 high over the last 52-weeks.

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-189.2410,275.16
NASDAQ-49.342,126.71
S&P 500-24.601,086.03

Last updated: November 27, 2009: 09:47 AM

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