This is the final review of the seven stocks I picked twelve months ago, and the time has passed quickly. This covers the period from December 28 2006 through December 27 2007. It has been a stock pickers year for sure given that the S&P 500 index moved up only modestly. Having come to this conclusion, I must admit my seven picks were all over the place. Three beat the indices, two performed sorely and two were basically break even except for the healthy dividends.

If the stock you happened to pick was Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), which I included as sort of a "stalking horse" because of its popularity, it beat all else as a portfolio of one. As a matter of fact GOOG beat my picks by a whopping 930% meaning it bested my returns with very little effort with a gain 9.3 times the average of my seven stock picks.

The average of my seven picks fell dramatically in the last two months and I have gone from wonderboy with about a 22% YTD return, to waterboy with about 5.5% return -- UGH! I rode the Chinese market up and down, among the macro events.

Luckily for me I did not stop picking stocks last December. My actual average of all recommendations in 2007 is notably higher, see: Chasing Value: My best and worst picks of 2007.

Highlighting the fact that this year was suited to the stock pickers, James Cramer's average based on his nine picks beat all the indices by a healthy margin. Cramer, as you might imagine, had the most volatile picks. The two best Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Savient Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: SVNT) did spectacularly well. Apple was appreciating most of the year while Savient saved Cramers tush by doubling in the last month due to approval of one of their drug therapies.

Continue reading Chasing Value: 7 for 2007 review: Props to Cramer for his 2007 picks

Chasing Value: 7 for 2007 review: Props to Cramer for his 2007 picks originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 01 Jan 2008 13:13:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

For the most part, this year has portrayed itself as a stock picker's market. If the stock you happened to pick was Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), which I included for fun because of its popularity, it beat all else as a portfolio of one.

The average of my seven picks fell as dramatically in November as it rose in October, reflecting the ebb and flow of the Chinese market. James Cramer's average based on his nine picks sank as well, but not as much. While Cramer managed to stay ahead of all the indices, and I beat the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 and marginally beat the Dow Jones Industrial Average, I lost out to the NASDAQ and the average of the three.

Last month, after reporting spectacular gains, I remained realistic when posting "Of course, this could easily change given recent market volatility. A sharp downturn in the market could reverse our fortunes. A lot can happen in the remaining two months -- I take nothing for granted."

Yes, Google has done well, but Cramer's best, Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) has done much better. It seems to be priced for perfection, as they say, but it also seems to be achieving it so far on the wings of the iPhone, iPod, and growing Mac sales. Warren Buffett voiced his opinion that the Chinese market has gotten bloated, and PetroChina ADR (NYSE: PTR), while still up significantly, dropped back off its all-time highs after becoming the second-largest capitalized company in the world.

Continue reading Chasing Value: After 11 months, AAPL +125%, GOOG +50%, PTR +35%

Chasing Value: After 11 months, AAPL +125%, GOOG +50%, PTR +35% originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 10 Dec 2007 16:55:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

My in-laws have been using Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) computers forever. I have been using Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Windows-based machines, because most of our software and that of our engineering consultants was not supported on Macs. This extended to our home/studio. Well, a few years ago my daughter (remember, the iPhone enthusiast?) got an Apple notebook, then my wife did, then six months ago my 11 year old got one. iMacs are taking over the house.

Apple has made a lot of strides in the past 18 months to make all this switching much more easy. From using Intel processors, to adopting Windows options, to improving the operating system and already having the historically superior machine in terms of stability, anti-virus environment, better graphics and sound integration and more innovation on all levels.

So what does the Microsoft-based Windows PC offer me? As far as I can figure out, there are two advantages. The first is price: Apple charges extra for the cool factor, as it does with everything it produces. Although you have to give Apple credit for innovation and its R&D efforts, that has a cost. Microsoft is not known for innovation. The second thing a Windows PC offers is the greater number of programs available. The second attribute is bound to change as more and more people buy Macs and software companies and developers look to grow with that end of the market.

Continue reading Leaving the Microsoft world for Apple

Leaving the Microsoft world for Apple originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 16 Nov 2007 17:25:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

After all these years it finally happened: My 77-year-old mother decided she wanted to get a computer.

For years, she thought it would complicate her life and waste time (sort of true) so she resisted the idea. But now the time has come for her to enter a life of digital communication. Do you have any holdouts in your family?

Already the complications begin. Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) released its new Leopard operating system October 26, and we were considering setting her up with a laptop and wireless home network. However, I am told that it would be able to help her remotely if we get her a Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Windows based system. I have to check this out. The family debate is in progress.

I have a mixed marriage, with my wife sporting an iMac while I "make do" with a Toshiba notebook. I am the holdout in our family. My kids have Macs. Who knows, next time I may switch. This trend bodes well for Apple.

It appears that my mom was starting to feel left out. Every time one of her friends asks for her email address, she has to explain she is not online -- but now she can add "yet," because she will be soon. For years, we have been sending her faxes of things we wanted to share, so the time has come for one of the last holdouts to get with the program. I wonder when she'll set up her Facebook page? I just hope the world wide web can handle the additional load!

Second Life: When the family matriarch wants her first computer originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 15 Nov 2007 18:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

One of the important reasons to have stock splits when prices get too high is to give the small investor a chance to participate. The recent rise of many company stocks has started to move away from this concept. To the extent that the uninformed private party or small-time speculator is better off not buying individual stocks, this is probably a good thing. Most investors would be better off participating in the stock market through index funds and exchange-traded funds.

This came to mind yesterday as PetroChina ADR (NYSE: PTR) closed at $236.44, meaning that buying a lot of one hundred shares would cost $23,644. This is a lot of money for most people and even for the avid investor, it is a lot to put in one stock. On Monday, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) closed at a mere $126,200 FOR ONE SHARE! But fear not -- you could have bought a single one of Berkshire's 'BRK.B' shares for a paltry $4,229.00. "My pal Warren" has elected not to split the shares of BRK - ever! He believes this promotes shareholders to be longer term investors instead of traders. This has worked out to be true -- sort of -- since due to the high share price, very few shares are traded. Berkshire is an anomaly for another related reason also -- it is the largest company that is not included in the Standard & Poor's 500 index, because there is a required minimum volume of trading, and it does not cross that threshold.

A couple of Stanford grads, now young billionaires, who started a company called Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) have decided to follow Buffett's lead and not split its stock either. Google closed yesterday at $620.11, so you must pay over $60,000 for a hundred shares of this stock. Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), which closed at $166.98, is more likely to split its shares, maybe 2 for 1, from the talk on the Street, but that is just a rumor and it could change its thinking.

Continue reading Pricey stocks keep small investors out: AAPL, BRK.A, GOOG, ISRG, PTR

Pricey stocks keep small investors out: AAPL, BRK.A, GOOG, ISRG, PTR originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 16 Oct 2007 15:14:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Every day we hear business reports speak about consumer spending. Is it up or down? Will consumer confidence remain stable? How will the economy hold up if consumer confidence dips? A lot is riding on these numbers and it remains a symbol of our economic strength.

Among stocks we follow closely on this site Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) seems to be heavily dependent on consumer confidence based on the premium pricing and perceived value in its product line. Yes, Apple just cut prices on the iPhone by $200 but it still costs $399. While the phone seems to be a technological wonder and consumer hit, if times get tough you still can get four free phones with a family plan through the major vendors; for a multi-phone family that is a lot of money. Apple's share price was up notably on Friday, closing at $161.45. While I admire just about everything this company is doing, I think the stock price has advanced passed what I can deem reasonable unless the next 12 months can produce a 50% increase in profits from their current lofty levels. That will not be easy.

Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) would seem less susceptible to weaker consumer demand since it offers an extremely broad base of products, and offers discounts on many items all the time. It also has very deep data on consumer buying patterns and can adjust to changes relatively quickly in a way Apple cannot. Apple has to deal with design, manufacturing, and lead times that leave it much more vulnerable to a downturn in the economy. Amazon's share price was up with the overall market on Friday, closing at $93.43. Having a P/E of 127 (TTM) Amazon's valuation has long since left me behind.

Continue reading Consumer spending: Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) & Wal-Mart (WMT)

Consumer spending: Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) & Wal-Mart (WMT) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 08 Oct 2007 12:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Today Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) is the top Internet search and advertising property there is -- No Question! Yesterday it was something else. Why do investors believe that everything now ends with Google? Have we already reached the end of the internet revolution. Maybe we just think Google has locked up the next stages as well.

Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) started with two graduate students from Standford University and was all the rage. Google started with two graduate students from Stanford University and now it is all the rage. Do we think Stanford is running out of bright graduate students all of a sudden? I would call them and make an inquiry but surely they would not take me seriously.

Has Google perfected Internet advertising? I don't think so, do you? Will Yahoo, Microsoft Inc. (NASDAQ: MSFT), eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY), News Corp (NYSE: NWS) and all the international players concede an inch of ground more than temporarily?

I am not saying that Google won't eventually conquer the Internet world, (because I do not know) but this feat is by no means as certain as the market currently seems to believe: driving the price of GOOG up $95 per share as I write this story, on no news, in about eight weeks.

Continue reading Serious Money: Google (GOOG) has no moat -- beware of false prophets

Serious Money: Google (GOOG) has no moat -- beware of false prophets originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 02 Oct 2007 15:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I think you all have gone mad if you are buying stocks today just because the market is moving up, or you are planning on federal rate cuts yet to be announced, or Hilary Kramer or James Cramer said so, or you are afraid the train is leaving the station without you, or your stock broker or palm reader has become bullish. There is only one reason to buy stocks and that is to make money and secure your future for the long run. To do that you need to have solid reasons that can be accounted for and demonstrated to have a high degree of probablity. I did not see that today.

A friend of mine asked me today whether they should sell their shares of Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) and take profits after it's recent runnup. I told them I had no idea whether to buy, sell or hold. There was no concrete data that has been released since it's last quarterly report (after which it dropped by $50 in one day) so to me it is all wild speculation. If you believe that the rate cuts are good for the overall market which includes Google then perhaps you can hang your hat on that -- I won't be.

I have been touting Huaneng Power ADS (NYSE: HNP) for a long time and those that paid heed to my comments made a ton of money with me, but even though I love this stock I am not promoting it today after it's 45% jump in the last six weeks Volatile Market picks: Huaneng Power (HNP) is my pick for the next 50 years. I like to buy on dips as I wrote when it was down 20% off its high not when it is screaming forward to new highs. I think patience is in order.

Continue reading Throw caution out the window GOOG, AAPL, HNP, ACH, VLO, ISRG -- NOT!

Throw caution out the window GOOG, AAPL, HNP, ACH, VLO, ISRG -- NOT! originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 01 Oct 2007 17:39:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

This Chasing Value post marks my 400th story for BloggingStocks over the last 18 months. I originally agreed to do about five per month, so I have exceeded what I thought was practical, given my other responsibilities. Through this time I have learned a lot about writing, blogging, editing, the internet, AOL, and have continued to improve my investing acumen, which is a never-ending process. Many of our readers have contributed with some thought-provoking commentary and made this time a more interesting journey. I created the Chasing Value section after discussions with Senior Editor Amey Stone, and it seems to have gathered a modest following. This is the latest installment tracking my 2007 picks.

Through September, the market has benefited from a 0.5% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve Board, recovering much of August's losses. This has also stimulated oil and gold prices to new highs and caused the dollar to shrink in value overseas. To some degree I think this resulted in foreign stocks rising significantly, most notably Huaneng Power International ADS which derives 100% of its revenue outside the United States. Last December, I made a strong case for HNP; prior to its recent rise I did so again for our Volatile Market picks: Huaneng Power (HNP) is my pick for the next 50 years.

This year continues to be a stock picker's market, as the volatile James Cramer of TheStreet.com and I have both topped the indices. Cramer made the best and worst picks for the year among those I've been tracking monthly. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is the best performer among all the stocks and indices in this review, and has stabilized what might have otherwise been a mediocre showing. It has been a good year for energy and tech stocks. The past few months have been dismal for the financial sector, and anything lingering near its giant shadow.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is once again approaching its high of 14,000 and looks like there might be room to exceed it. The housing market and subprime loans continue to worry investors, but unlike last month when an interest rate cut was not a certainty, the market seems to be betting now that another cut is not far off.

Continue reading Chasing down 007 picks: AAPL +89%, HNP +46%, PTR & VLO +30%, GOOG +22%

Chasing down 007 picks: AAPL +89%, HNP +46%, PTR & VLO +30%, GOOG +22% originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 01 Oct 2007 13:01:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The markets saw an overall mildly bullish session today. The NYSE had volume of 2.3 billion shares with 2,056 shares advancing while 1,221 declined for a gain of 54.38 points to close at 9,637.55. On the NASDAQ, 1.8 billion shares traded, 1,682 advanced and 1,305 declined for a gain of 8.37 to 2,614.32.

Silver Standard (NASDAQ: SSRI) rose $3.49 (11%) to $33.91. Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: ABX) rose $2.80 (8%) to $36.20. Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) rose $1.80 (8%) to $25.78. Office Depot Inc (NYSE: ODP) fell $1.49 (-6%) to $21.94. Level 3 Communications Inc (NASDAQ: LVLT) fell $0.21 (-4%) to $4.93.

In options there were 3.8 million puts and 4.7 million calls traded for a put/call open interest ratio of 0.82. Level 3 Comm. Inc. (NASDAQ: LVLT) saw heavy volume on the January 7.50 calls (QHNAU) with over 33,900 options trading. Apple Computer Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) had volume on a number of different strikes including the September 150 calls (APVIJ) with over 33,800 calls trading; the September 140 calls (APVIH) with over 41,700 options trading; and the September 145 calls (APVII) with over 33,000 options trading. Motorola (NYSE: MOT) tallied volume on the October 20 calls (MOTJD) with over 30,100 options trading. General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) saw heavy volume on the December 40 calls (GELH) with over 26,000 options trading. SLM Holding (NYSE: SLM) moved volume on the October 50 calls (SLMJJ) with over 24,700 options trading and moved volume on the October 50 puts (SLMVJ) with over 20,100 options trading. AK Steel Holding (NYSE: AKS) traded volume on the October 30 puts (AKSVF) with over 55,800 options trading.

Kevin Kersten is an Options Analyst with InvestorsObserver.com. Disclosure note: Mr. Kersten owns and or controls a diversified portfolio of long and short positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.

Thursday Market Rap: SSRI, GG, ODP, LVLT & GE originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 06 Sep 2007 17:48:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Markets made solid gains today moving well in the green. There are a couple of factors that helped lift the market. It is a natural bounce back from the correction; risk of the sub-prime market is coming off the table with the government's attention and intervention, and the summer is ending and we are headed into the fall a time the market typically does better in.

The NYSE had volume of 2.1 billion shares with 2,321 shares advancing while 995 declined for a gain of 101.66 points to close at 9,698.64. On the NASDAQ, 1.6 billion shares traded, 1,969 advanced and 1,065 declined for a gain of 33.88 to 2,630.24.

SILVER STANDARD RESOURCES INC (NASDAQ: SSRI) rose $1.81 (6%) to $31.02. Eastman Kodak (NYSE: EK) gained $1.26 (5%) to $27.93. Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) moved higher $5.68 (4%) to $144.16.

In options there were 3.5 million puts and 4.5 million calls traded for a put/call ratio of 0.78. There were a couple of options that had heavy volume that cought our attention. BankAmerica Corp. (NYSE: BAC) saw heavy volume on the September 47.50 calls (BACIW) with over 103,000 options trading and the September 45 calls (BACII) moved 90,000 options. BAC pays a dividend, so this may be dividend arbitrage. Apple Computer (NASDAQ: AAPL) saw heavy volume on the September 145 calls (APVII) with over 35,000 options trading. Yahoo! Inc (NASDAQ: YHOO) rose $1.24 (5%) to $23.97. Yahoo (NASDAQ: YHOO) saw heavy volume on the January 30 calls (YHQAF) with over 24,000 options trading and the September 25 calls (YHQIE) moved over 23,000 options trading. Bear Stearns reiterated Yahoo at outperform and tech was strong in general today.

Kevin Kersten is an Options Analyst with InvestorsObserver.com. Disclosure note: Mr. Kersten owns and or controls a diversified portfolio of long and short positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about.

Monday Market Rap: YHOO, EK, SSRI, BAC & AAPL originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 04 Sep 2007 17:42:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Last week Barron's [subscription required] socked it to Mr. Booyah!, James Cramer, with a cover story highlighting his overall mediocre stock-picks performance and the associated antics on his highly rated (for cable) CNBC Mad Money show.

There have been many follow up stories reflecting on the Barron's article and I thought I had to add my voice, not to jump on to the bandwagon, but to share my own take. Differing tracking sites weighed in on how successful Cramer has been (or not) in his stock picking. As I read Barron's own take and the many twisted tales portrayed by CNBC and TheStreet.com, I thought about my own tracking. You see, I have actually been tracking Cramer's nine picks for the year and sharing it with our readers each month. This month I posted Chasing Value 2007 picks : Google (GOOG) runs up, Cramer runs down, indices worse and Cramer did in fact beat the indices through the end of July.

Here is an excerpt:

Continue reading Did Cramer beat indices? Yes and no

Did Cramer beat indices? Yes and no originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 27 Aug 2007 14:05:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

USA Today reported that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone Users Shocked by Huge Bills, but the story is not the headline. The cost of the iPhone is high, both in its initial purchase and its monthly cost, but it is by no means shocking anyone. Most iPhone users love them. The only shocking thing is the lengthy, very detailed statements that on occasion run 50 pages or more!

In relation to customer expectations, it is the physical bill that is HUGE, not the cost. This will work itself out eventually. As is often the case, today's news, is tomorrow's bird cage liner.

My 18-year-old daughter still thinks the iPhone is the coolest, and she's very happy after pounding on it frequently over the past six weeks. She has also just returned from England (yes, dad spoils her), where she found it worked just fine and was able to call home with no trouble.

The iPhone is not for everyone. Among my business associates who have recently acquired phones, the Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) Blackberry Curve is much more popular. I'm still happy with my Motorola (NYSE: MOT) RAZR.

Continue reading Apple (AAPL) iPhone cost is high, but she still loves it

Apple (AAPL) iPhone cost is high, but she still loves it originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 15 Aug 2007 14:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Plenty of investment guru's have suggested buying on fear and selling when greed reaches its pinnacle. Well I think the fear side is self evident but I'm not hearing about many analysts who are brave enough to buy right now. As a matter of fact I only hear that this would be a very foolish time to invest in the financial sector, in particular, any stocks with sub-prime or "Alt-A" mortgage exposure.

For this reason, contrarian that I am, I thought I would speak out about my recent BAD CALLS, or at least very premature calls, and start tracking them for all to see -- accepting the ribbing, tomato-throwing and blunt comments about the error of my ways.

I own four of the five stocks I will be following for the next year, Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC), IndyMac Bancorp Inc. (NYSE: IMB), Popular Inc. (NASDAQ: BPOP), and Washington Mutual (NYSE: WM). I wrote favorable comments on each and in the case of WM, more than once. Needless to say, I am under water on all of them. I do not own Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) but it will make for a fine pace car in the middle of this storm.

Continue reading Buy on fear today? Bear Stearns (BSC), Countrywide (CFC), IndyMac (IMB), Popular (BPOP), Washington Mutual (WM)

Buy on fear today? Bear Stearns (BSC), Countrywide (CFC), IndyMac (IMB), Popular (BPOP), Washington Mutual (WM) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 10 Aug 2007 15:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

July started off so promising and ended in the dumps. After the DJIA triumphantly closed above 14,000 it beat a hasty retreat scared off by a tumbling housing market, continued worries about sub-prime loans, record highs in oil prices, continued turmoil in Iraq and perhaps a dose of summer vacationitus. In addition, market darlings Apple and Google exited the month with a few unanswered questions. Nothing could be more telling than people speculating about a Dow 15,000...16,000...17,000 the moment it passed the 14,000 mark. And silly guy that I am...thoughts of repeating my 29% 2006 return entered my mind when I reached a 24% IRR earlier. That no longer looks like a possibility although I'm still doing fine - so far.

The month of July started off about stock picking and finished about stock picking as James Cramer of TheStreet.com would support. However, among the good picks were plenty of bad ones and anything remotely associated with housing, and sub-prime loans paid a heavy price by month end. Google maintained its leadership but did take a dive after reporting earnings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) set so many new highs that it is not news anymore, but then there was news, most of it bad enough to put doubt in investors minds, and the market traded down. Earnings reports still trickle in but nothing major unexpected affected the market. Mergers and acquisitions are showing some signs of slowing, but deals are getting done. This is my seventh follow-up report. For reference, check out my original Dec. 28, 2006 post on this topic.

Although the DJIA has been the market leader among the indices and may indicate that investors are giving large cap stocks their due, it has retreated lately. It also may indicate that the global economy is doing better as a whole than the national economy, creating opportunity for the multi-national corporations.

Continue reading Chasing Value 2007 picks : Google (GOOG) runs up, Cramer runs down, indices worse

Chasing Value 2007 picks : Google (GOOG) runs up, Cramer runs down, indices worse originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 08 Aug 2007 17:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

According to an article published by Bloomberg Cheapest Stocks in 16 years draws investors, "Investors are preparing to snap up shares of telephone, health-care and computer companies after last week's $2.1 trillion global stock market rout left U.S. equities the cheapest in 16 years."

I am always pondering stock valuations in search of bargains and have been thinking that there are many bargains to be had. Having come to this conclusion though is not based on the relative market strength or weakness, or whether the over all market is cheap or not. I am not interested in bear markets or bull markets. The average investor should view all markets and promoters of said markets as full of bull. The best way to invest in stocks is the same way you invest in friends - one by one, respectfully, fairly and refraining from judging the proverbial book by it's cover. You should look deeper and think long term.

Some companies have reported terrific earnings Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and some have been lackluster Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ). Some have been dismal like housing stocks Pulte Homes (NYSE: PHM) and Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL). While one could make the argument that stock valuations are at a low point there is more to the story.

Since valuations -- think price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios -- are at a cumulative low, and the market prices stocks based on future earnings and growth of equity potential, then one has to assume the brokerage houses, investment banks, hedge funds, institutions and the like have priced in a continuation of the same low interest, high liquidity conditions that lead to this economic situation. I do not have such clarity in regards to this future.

Maybe the headline should not read "Stocks are the cheapest they have been in 16 years", maybe it should read "Large investors are more tenative than they have been in 16 years". After all look how fast they were jumping ship last Thursday and Friday. In any event, I will continue to write about specific opportunities and resist characterising the over all markets.

Who says the stock market is too cheap? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 30 Jul 2007 17:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The word is in from my 18-year-old daughter and she loves it. Several of the early reports in the media editorialized about the Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone after a single user's report, or limited reporting. Some of my colleagues were criticized for writing commentaries from this limited view. My daughter might not be one of the first iPhone "beta testers" if not for the fact that her 18th birthday coincided with the product release date -- and her grandfather was intent on spoiling his granddaughter. I would not have spent the money myself since she already had a Blackjack that she was happy with, but she does like the iPhone better. Here are her comments sent to me via email.

Why I Love the iPhone

1. The screen is bigger
2. The buttons don't press in my pocket
3. The text messaging is more like a conversation because you can see what I write and what the other person writes at the same time just like instant messaging.
4. The calender is more user friendly
5. The ipod plays music out loud when the earphones aren't in
6. The earphones have a speaker so I can receive a call while listening to music
7. The internet is the same as on a computer and very user friendly
8. The weather and stock information allow you to quickly keep tabs on things

Continue reading She loves her Apple iPhone

She loves her Apple iPhone originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 19 Jul 2007 16:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

In the midst of writing a post about how bored I was reading Up & Down Wall Street by Alan Abelson each week in Barron's (subscription required) just to see him warn of the impending bear market again, and again and again, we got a dose today. In general I enjoy Abelson's wit, insights and vocabulary lessons each each week, but after 18 to 24 months of bearish warnings it was much over done.

Today, perhaps he is conjuring up his commentary for next week when he may really have something to taunt investors about. Given that the DJIA ($INDU) is down 148.27 (1.09%) to 13,501.70, the NASDAQ ($COMPX) was down 30.86 (1.16%) to 26.39.16, and the S&P ($INX) was down 21.73 (1.42%) to 1510.12, there is much to think about. As a buy and hold value guy I can ride out any storm, but I will share with you that today 12 of the 13 stocks in our latest portfolio are down. The one excepton is Tata Motors (TTM), closing at $17.94, up 0.21 (+1.18%). The original story: Chasing Value: Tata Motors LTD - patience, patience, GOT IT!

Two market darlings were also up Apple Inc. (AAPL) closed up $2.02 to $132.35 and Google Inc. (GOOG) was up nominally $0.78 to $543.34.

You can read all the trials and tribulations of the day here: Stocks Decline After Downbeat Forecasts, but in summary, oil up, 30 year mortgages up, retail sales down and sub-prime loans still haunting the market.

Those of you who are new to BloggingStocks can check out my other stories and read Chasing Value or Serious Money to find more potential opportunities and verify my track record as well.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the Principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. Check out his other posts for BloggingStocks here.

It's an 'I told you so' day for the stock market bears originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 10 Jul 2007 17:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

For some reason stock trading is still running rampant in the market despite all the evidence to the contrary that it is a bad idea. It is a bad idea to pay fees and taxes (or take losses, even worse) no matter how low because they eat away at your overall returns. It is a bad idea because the basis of the decision to buy or sell has little or no fundamental rationale except momentum, or charts, or news of the day, or analysts' calls, or a Cramer rant. But most importantly to me it is a bad idea because all of the most successful and wealthiest investors do the opposite -- Warren Buffett, Bill Miller, Eddie Lampert and Carl Icahn just to name a few.

Since history has proved over and over and over that day trading is a loser's game, why do it? The only reason I can think of is for the adrenaline rush. It's the sport of it. Just watch Cramer and you can see the crazed sports fanatic looking for a fix. He makes it exciting! He makes it an adventure! He needs something to talk about!

If he followed a process enjoyed by Buffett or Miller his show might be on the air monthly instead of several times a week. Instead of frantic or manic gyrations he would be making a few boring comments and calm suggestions about a few stock possibilities before encouraging his viewers to tune in next month. Cramer and other traders have built up business as a sport and as entertainment. But, if you want to get rich, follow the investors not the traders.

Continue reading Rapid fire trading is more sport than investing

Rapid fire trading is more sport than investing originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 09 Jul 2007 16:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Yesterday evening I went to see the movie Transformers with my 11-year-old son. (I think he will be broadcasting to every kid he sees today that it is a must-see.) Before the movie we visited the Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) store a few doors down from the movie house. It was crowded and the whole store had been transformed into an iPhone store. The wall banners, storefronts, and the first product table by the door were dedicated to the new phone and there was a security guard hovering around the display table.

We played with the phone for a while and it has some impressive features. I think it is clearly a marketing success, and is so different from all the other phone options that it is likely to blow past Apple's projections of sales in the ten million range through the first 12 months. I do not think it would be hard to imagine 20 to 25 million units sold in the first 12 months. Many of my colleagues have been huge Apple stock promoters, the most enthusiastic Georges Yared has taken the lead in this respect. If you followed his lead you made money.

From my own value perspective I could not justify buying Apple but that is not to say that by some measures there is not value. So I decided to take a look at the metrics and here is my read on the stock now.

• Price-to-earnings P/E (TTM) 34.71
• Price-to-sales P/S (LFY) 3.85.
• Price-to-book P/B (LFY) 6.55
• Price-to-cash-flow P/CF 32.20
• Return-on-equity ROE (TTM) 22.85
• Profit margin: 10.3%
• Dividend: none

Continue reading Apple has value, but iPhone misnamed

Apple has value, but iPhone misnamed originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 05 Jul 2007 14:35:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.