The outcome of the Belmont Stakes where Big Brown came in last instead of first is just one more example of the difficulty one has in making predictions. I know little about horse racing, and the only thing I know about the Triple Crown is that there has not been a winner in 30 years (and counting). As irony would have it, the winner of the Belmont was the 38-to-1 long shot Da Tara that went wire to wire.

This event stands out in my mind because I am asked to predict future events on a regular basis (whether it makes sense or not), and because I am in the middle of reading The Black Swan about randomness and uncertainty by epistemologist Nassim Nicholas Taleb. I highly recommend the book to fellow investors and business leaders interested in getting some perspective on risk and the many fallacies we all overlook.

The number of variables that can affect a specific outcome like a horse race are significant, and in the case of the Belmont Stakes, on this occasion something was amiss. When Big Brown turned for home, something wasn't right. Jockey Kent Desormeaux knew the big bay colt was finished. Trainer Rick Dutrow Jr., who guaranteed racing's first Triple Crown in 30 years, knew it, too.

Today was a very gloomy day in the stock market with Oil reaching new highs and everything else losing -- almost. Among the few winners, and I mean very few, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), oil, and specialty steel were up. I went through my watch list and found this very short list of winners:

Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) $78.49, up +$0.95 or 1.23%

Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) $185.90, up +$2.30 or 1.25%

Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) $49.92, +$0.85 up +$1.73%

Precision Drilling TR (NYSE: PDS) $27.90, up $1.13, or 4.22%

Reliance Steel and Aluminum (NYSE: RS) $67.37, +0.$52, or 0.78%

Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) $50.12, up +$0.43 or 0.87%

I've received a few chuckles for investment directions I've suggested in the past, but if you care to review a couple of my previous generalities, I believe that my record has held up fairly well.

I submit for approval the following investment angles for the balance of 2008 and possibly beyond:

Have I suggested investments in water holdings? Yes, I do believe that I have. I believe that going long in water stocks could be an investment hedge of the decade. I also suggest a look into the desalination technology from General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE).

I'd think it's a good idea to stick with the railroads, such as Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE: BNI). I claim that, with all things given, for now, railroads can't fail. Conversely, I think it's a good time to back away slowly from trucking. I think misery lies ahead there.

We have seen this play before, and there are two scenarios as to how it could end. Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) is being challenged like never before, having saturated the market place in some locations it is now facing the challenges of selling expensive coffee in a slowing economy.

Would you rather pay $4 for a cup of coffee or a gallon of gas? You can find cheaper coffee but you have few options to find cheaper fuel. Amid the already difficult operating environment Starbucks is faced with competition from the largest restaurant chain in the world, McDonald's Corporation (NYSE: MCD). McDonald's is looking to steal its morning thunder with competitive offerings at a far lower pricing structure. The threat is very real no matter what spin Starbucks puts on it.

This brings to mind two similar situations both involving Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) and past competitors. Early on there were two word processing programs that together probably had 90% market share. Those were Wordperfect and Wordstar. Both of them were fine programs offering strong features, and now they are nowhere. Microsoft displaced both of them with MS-Word integrated with their Office suite of products, and is now king.

Towards the end of 2007 when the overall stock market was softening, Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) and Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) were still soaring to new highs, and the optimism most assuredly reached euphoria and beyond. What is the next level beyond euphoria -- madness -- and that's the kiss of death!

When the notorious Henry Bloggett proclaimed that GOOG was destined to reach $2,000 I do not think there was a dry eye in the house, either laughing at this ridiculous comment, which by the way offered no time frame or reference point, or crying for the shame of it all -- that was the kiss of death.

When I read about this I could not resist tempering the madness and posted Serious Money: Google (GOOG) $2,000? No way, it's too high now! The madness produced many interesting metrics to prove a point, including that you could have traded Google for both Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) and Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG), two of my favorites, as an even swap (in capitalization only). That would be a heck of deal don't you think?!

Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL) is recently trading down $3.22 to $118.33. AAPL call option volume of 60,675 contracts compares to put volume of 35,477 contracts. AAPL March option implied volatility of 43 is below its 26-week average of 47 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Life Time Fitness(NYSE:LTM) is recently down $8.14 to $32.43. LTM announced inline Q4 EPS of 48c. LTM sees FY08 EPS of $2.05-$2.08 vs. consensus of $2.19. LTM operates 71 fitness centers in 16 states. LTM May option implied volatility of 64 is above its 26-week average of 43 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Sales of Macs may have been so strong over the holidays that Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) earnings could buck the trend of tough tech company numbers.

According to The Wall Street Journal "a slowdown in spending may have left few nicks in Apple, forecast to report a record quarter after the market's close."

According to a recent study from ChangeWave Alliance, Mac sales probably took share from both Dell (NYSE: DELL) and Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) late last year and in the early part of 2008. Steve Jobs recently said that Apple has already sold four million iPhones. The revenue from these is spread over the life of the phone's service contract, so it is hard to calculate how that will affect the company's numbers for the last calendar quarter of 2007.

Estimates for iPod sales run around 24.5 million, up from 21.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2006. The growth of the product has slowed as it faces some market saturation, but if Apple sold 25 million iPods, the market would view it as a positive surprise.

The question now is not whether Apple beat the devil in the last quarter of 2007. The question is how does the company think it will do in the face of a possible recession.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• According to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street," long-running drama at Marsh & McLennan (NYSE:MMC) may finally conclude if the company is able to figure out how to run its core insurance brokerage business more profitably.

OTHER PAPERS:

• Transocean (NYSE:RIG) has already secured contracts to 2010. Kurt Hallead of RBC Capital Markets says RIG, now at $146.08, is undervalued based on its historical P/E ratio of 18, BusinessWeek reported.
  
• BusinessWeek also reported that shares of Nintendo (NTDOY) ended 2007 up 125%, due mainly to the interest in and success of its Wii game console, and analysts still see a long way in the continuing success of the console for the company.

WEBSITES:

• Mobile Today reported, citing sources, that most O2 stores are believed to have missed their iPhone targets by "some distance," with the typical sized store selling just one of the Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) devices per week.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) has been a truly fun company and stock to watch and write about during the course of 2007. Not a bad name to own either. I have probably written a dozen posts for BloggingStocks about Apple, and I have raised my price target five or six times this past year. I think I started out at $85, went to $125, then $150, and so on. I'll make it easy -- for year end 2008, the new price target is $300.

Seems so simple, but let me explain why.

Apple's story is actually stronger today at $200 than when it was at $100. Why? Apple is experiencing massive momentum in all business segments AND it's still early in all its product cycles. This is the amazing part and I must repeat -- IT IS STILL EARLY IN ALL PRODUCT CYCLES.

The December 31 quarter, ending in four short days, will be another blow-out quarter. The estimates call for $9.3 billion in revenue with earnings per share of $1.50 or so. Apple is going to beat these numbers and once again forward estimates are going to go up. Right now I have September 30, 2008 fiscal year estimates at revenues of $31 billion and earnings per share at $5.25; fiscal year 2009, revenues at $38.5 billion and earnings at $6.35 per share.

Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE: WMT) is reportedly aiming to move the music industry right into the anti-piracy technology-free era itself, threatening several label companies that the retail giant will pull their antiquated files from walmart.com if they do not upgrade. Billboard also reported that Wal-Mart's 2% share in the digital store arena may not say much, at least in comparison with Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s iTunes Store, but the chain's CD sales account for a lot of business in the music industry (Billboard estimates 22%).

That large CD sales market for Wal-Mart is big incentive to see the growth of the music industry in the digital market. As CD sales decline, some have speculated that Wal-Mart may begin to re-size the entertainment department in stores, essentially pushing the market online for consumers. Another interest Billboard notes Wal-Mart may have in the "all-encompassing digital format" is the run against iTunes the company and other digital stores could make, like Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN)'s MP3 store. iTunes dominates the digital market, holding 70% of all sales.

It hardly seems "fair" to the record labels and the music industry for retain giants and digital stores to be forcing the change. If these growths and rumors tell us anything, it is that retail chains and digital stores are more attuned to what consumers want than the music industry. This is not a big revelation, but Apple alone has not spearheaded an industry-wide shift away from anti-piracy technology. Apple, Wal-Mart, and Amazon, may not be working together to increase the availability of music, but it appears they have the same goals. They just want sales, and apparently consumers just want easy to access music.

The New York Post reports on Corporate Leader magazine's poll of the top CEOs based on a survey of analysts and investors. Here's my assessment of the top five:

• Steve Jobs, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL). With its stock up 94.4% in the last year -- though 13% below its 52-week high -- Apple's new products this year have been outstanding. But it's a pretty pricey stock; it trades at a Price/Earnings to Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.56 on a P/E ratio of 42.3 and Earnings Per Share (EPS) growth of 27.2% to $6.26 in fiscal 2009.
• Eric Schmidt, Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG). With its stock up 27.8% in the last year -- though 15% below its 52-week high -- Google continues to take share from traditional advertisers while struggling somewhat to profit from all its innovations. But it's a somewhat pricey stock; it trades at a PEG ratio of 1.39 on a P/E ratio of 49.6 and EPS growth of 35.8% to $18.19 in 2008.

During the market disruptions of the past couple of months, we saw Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) fall from a high of $148 to a low of $118 ( man, what an opportunity that was!!). The stock is now back up to $141 and this may be your last chance to buy it here under $150. Why? A lot of catalysts are on the near term horizon.

Apple finishes its fiscal year in 11 days. The September 30 quarter and year-end will wrap up an exceptional year for Apple, yet many would argue that the best is yet to come. I expect the year finishing in 11 days to have final revenue numbers of $24 billion with earnings per share coming in at $3.75. iPhone revenues will be somewhat relevant, but that piece of the Apple story is JUST BEGINNING. As Apple exits fiscal year 2007, the more relevant story is still the overwhelming success of the iPod with the corresponding iTunes store, and of course, the newly revamped Mac computer. Mac is gaining market share in a fairly fluid market.

The iPhone production is ramping up. For the year (calendar year), Apple had planned to produce 3.6 million iPhone units. That number is now at 4.8 million units in planned production. European nations will be rolled out for iPhone availability beginning in the calendar fourth quarter with the UK and Germany getting ready for the onslaught.

ABC News reports that consumers are using web video to voice their complaints with products and services. I am wondering whether this could be the killer application that will open consumers' wallets to buy Web cameras and related software.

Michael Whitford, a systems engineer from Chandler, AZ, posted a smash-and-bash video titled "Macbook Destruction" in which he demolishes his malfunctioning laptop. Whitford was upset when his new Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) Macbook conked out only six months after he purchased it. When Apple refused to fix the computer for free under his extended warranty, Whitford took matters into his own hands.

With a camera and a sledgehammer, Whitford explained his gripe to the audience before systematically smashing the Macbook to bits. He posted the video on the Web site consumerist.com and within four days Apple contacted him, apologizing for the problem and offering up a brand new $1,700 computer.

When Apple Inc.(NASDAQ: AAPL) introduced the Apple TV product earlier this year, fans came out of the woodwork on how this system would finally bridge the divide between PC content and all the viewing and listening greatness on newer flat-panel televisions and surround sound systems There were other choices, but they were largely considered inelegant and not easy to use. Apple, by reputation alone, always makes things that are easy to use, right?

Although the masters of marketing in Cupertino steal the thunder from most other companies, there are success stories outside of that universe. One appears to be from Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), which has stated that downloads of video content (movies) from its Xbox 360 video on-demand service are now growing by double-digits every month. That is growth, folks.

The one minor thorn is that some customers are complaining (naturally) that high-definition downloads are taking hours to complete, which is more of a broadband internet problem than a Microsoft problem, I would surmise. Still, the growth rate of video on-demand content for the Xbox 360 platform is very impressive thus far, so perhaps Microsoft's strategy of making the Xbox 360 a central, living-room entertainment hub may work after all. That is, as long as those internet pipes get faster and faster. Right now, consumer internet, for the most part, is way too slow to start pushing hi-def content to millions of customers.

Today's launch of Apple Inc.'s(NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone (actually, this evening's launch) is sure to set many mobile hands on fire just like every Apple product seems to do these days. In what could arguably be called the most anticipated consumer electronics product launch ever, the iPhone buzz is churning up all kinds of racket, from double-digit percentages of mobile customers leaving current wireless carriers to AT&T (NYSE:T)(just to get the iPhone) to AT&T having a whole army of support and sales personnel ready to face the customer onslaught expected later today and into the weekend. Standard Apple madness, right?

What about the effect all those new subscribers (if they materialize) are going to have on the other wireless carriers in the U.S.? Specifically, Verizon Wireless, Sprint Nextel(NYSE:S), T-Mobile and Alltel(NYSE:AT)? These carriers are the ones that are going to face customer defections en masse if iPhone fever gets wireless subscribers dumping existing carriers for AT&T just to get the iPhone. Who could be the biggest loser here? We're not talking reality shows, but the wireless companies that stand to get hurt the most by not having an iPhone to offer.

Sprint Nextel may have the most to lose, as a Bear Stearns analyst predicts that AT&T will lure almost 1.1 million customers from the carrier to AT&T by next year just due to the iPhone. Sprint Nextel has had three quarters of customer declines (mostly due to the mismanagement of the Nextel customer base and brand), and at the worst possible time, more customers could leave in droves not for service offered, but for a product. Is the iPhone really going to be that revolutionary? The customers who buy it will tell the tale, and if they do believe that it will change the mobile landscape forever, Sprint Nextel will be the first to hear about it-- in the worst possible way.