Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) was the big winner among only four that had appreciated. The following indicates commonly used metrics for tracking and comparing stocks.
Reviewing the stocks in order of lowest to highest P/E ratio (TTM):
It is interesting to note that only two of the eight have a below market P/E ratio, while only two are average. On the other hand, four are double the average and beyond, which leads me to believe the overall market consensus is that it is still very early in the game for these stocks and their futures are yet to be determined. The P/E ratios of the four are also the most volatile as are the stock prices.
This month saw great improvement after last month's disaster. Having to conclude my findings on a specific month end day, or any day, depending on the news, sometimes distorts results. For example news on March 31 sent the market down and on April first my picks shot up an unusual amount; hopefully the trend will continue.
My riskiest stock pick Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE: NCT) was down the most in March but recovered about 35% of the loss in April leaving Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) the dubious honor of being my worst performer, down over 30% in the first four months of the year.
April showed improvement as many companies reported positive earnings reports or beat expectations.
Most of my picks improved. Higher food prices no doubt helped Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) which recaptured losses moving up 23% from its recent bottom. My two winners Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor, and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) were joined by a third, Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) which had a 10% swing entering positive territory.
Since I have been a shareholder of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A), I have enjoyed reading with great interest the musings of company chairman Warren Buffett as he gives almost a play-by-play review of the year in his letter to shareholders. He writes in a tone I would compare to Will Rogers, the writer, actor, comedian, cowboy and former mayor of Beverly Hills.
"My pal Warren" highlights both the triumphs and disasters of the year and his own perspective of the State of the Union and the economy like only he can. I strongly recommend investors take the time to read his letter(s).
One of the most often referred to items in Buffett's letters is regarding the quality of the management at each of the companies that Berkshire owns, or has major stock holdings in. There are many shrewd investors who will make a convincing argument that the quality of management is the highest priority.
He glowingly speaks of the wisdom, integrity and hard work of his management partners. He openly states that one reason that most of Berkshire acquisitions tend to work so well is the mutual appreciation of these character traits they all share. Unlike many companies that look to make money by shaking up the management structure, Buffett bases his investment strategy on keeping the strong management that built the enterprise in place.
It was June 7, 2006 when I set up a tracking portfolio for our great eight stocks. AOL Money & Finance started BloggingStocks with a focus on these companies based on investor interest. Today, they still stimulate a lot of interest, and comments.
The following share prices are from the original tracking date now updated to last Friday's close, April 11, 2008. Earnings season is upon us again. The Iraq war is still in the headlines, as are the presidential elections, energy prices, recession fears and our latest calamity -- the shameful Washington/Wall Street axis of financial evil. Here are the BloggingStocks eight:
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) was $60.00 and is up to $147.14 gaining 145%.
eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) was $32.00 and is down to $30.87 losing 3.35%.
General Electric (NYSE: GE) was $34.50 and is down to $32.05 losing 7.1%.
Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) was $380.00 and is up to $457.45 gaining 20.38%.
Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) was $22.50 and is up to $28.28 gaining 25.69%.
Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) was $17.50 and is down to $14.27 losing 18.46%.
Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) was $47.00 and is up to $54.80 gaining 16.6%.
Yahoo Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) was $31.00 and is down to $28.34 losing 8.58%.
So after 22 months we find four stocks are up and four stocks are down. Apple is the clear winner and remains the company to watch going forward. New trend-setting products are introduced regularly and few companies can match its inventiveness or marketing genius. Steve Jobs has hit a grand slam. Microsoft, the perennial cash generating machine, came in second with very strong results given the current state of the economy.
Among the surprises and the one I have taken the most flack for is that Google has not done very well in my eyes. It has been highly volatile and makes for a good trading stock, but if you add the dividend of 3.48% to Wal-Marts appreciation you have about the same growth with one tenth the downside risk.
eBay and GE are remarkable for having achieved nothing over our review period, and although they are down now I consider them break-even investments because they have been trading a few bucks higher and a few lower the entire period. Lots of promise, little results.
Lastly, Time Warner and Yahoo! are big disappointments. Time Warner (owner of BloggingStocks) has a new CEO and change is in the air. Yahoo! is in Microsoft's cross-hairs and looks like it will be something else in a few months. Ironically the two companies are in the midst of discussions to find a way to help each other out of their stagnation. I hope they succeed. Both have great franchises that are struggling to gain traction. Both must contend with Google and Microsoft.
Going forward Apple may be the best bet and Microsoft will probably continue to mint money. The others may just tread water for a while.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of EBAY, and TWX.
After three months it is time to face the facts: two of the three indices beat my picks handily. I have not made a good showing so far and unlike most investment idea sources, I feel obliged to air my dirty laundry for all to see.
My riskiest stock pick Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE:NCT) is down almost 37% this year, and the energy stocks did almost as poorly even though fuel prices are near all-time highs. The downers were not offset by this months' repeat winners.
March was a seesaw battle, but in the end there was not much to show for it. However, unlike the last day of January (down 370 points in the Dow) and February's last trading day (down 315 points), March had a final day of plus 46.49, which is not very meaningful.
Most of my picks sagged a little more, while two remain in positive territory. Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor is up and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) is way up.
I just finished reading a lively little blog piece furnished by The New York Times, City Room. It would seem that the cute Green NYC logo has come under scrutiny of the corporate lawyers at Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL). Let me just start this by saying it's my opinion that on it's face, this complaint by Apple is stupid. If this sort of thing is what it takes to keep Apple's corporate lawyers busy, the company has far too many law-schooled chair-warmers on payroll.
I won't even dissect the logo issue here for you; I'd pale in comparison to the New York Times piece. What I'd like to do is offer my services to the Apple Inc. legal department as "Solicitor for Stupid Litigation Options." I have prepared a portfolio of possible litigation opportunities. I offer it in lieu of a resume.
First, Apple should file suit against the writers of the Bible. How dare those scribes make the apple to appear such a nefarious fruit. Wasn't Eve told that someday the apple would be a symbol of universal knowledge? Umm wait, I think God did tell her that. So that means we could argue that she acted with malice of intent when she asked Adam to take a bite from the future corporate logo. However, she might then file a counterclaim against Apple, citing her first precedent use of the bitten fruit symbol. We'll have to find mitigating circumstances.
We spend a considerable amount of time trying to figure out where value lies in the market. A lot of last years' favorite high flyers have come back down to earth. Some of them are starting to resemble bank stocks. However, I have read nothing of Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) dabbling in sub-prime mortgages or CDO's. Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG) has not reported any bad news -- and both are down but showing signs of some upside again.
Regardless, the price on any given day is a myth, a story, speculation based on a few truths and many unknowns. There is a lot of huffing and puffing about current and future valuations.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) one of our most inventive, progressive and dynamically promoted companies is down over 35% in one month. Apple euphoria pushed it too high in December, and I think it could be argued that it has become a value play now. My colleague Georges Yared is on record forecasting a one-year price for AAPL shares of $300...10.5 to go. Beltway Greg, one of our frequent AAPL enthusiasts has thrown out a price target of $260, and I am on record with a $225 as the top end. Apple closed at $145.46 $125.48 on Friday.
What is the truth? There is none, until we are looking back at facts instead of forward with best guesses. As of today Apple might even be too high. Hey George, what do you think now?
Don't even get me started on Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) My last post on the subject was Amazon is not worth a penny over $60 - and I think even less! It closed Friday at $73.50 with a P/E around 66. So in case the math is tough for you, AMZN has to increase its net earnings by 100% to achieve a P/E of 33 twelve months out and would then be 22% higher than Apple is today -- go figure. There have been times that AMZN was on sale but for most of it's existence I have thought it was over priced and I do today as well. As best as I have been able to learn AMZN's price is greatly affected by the limited number of shares: Who owns Amazon.com - really?
January and so far February has been a tough month in the stock market but I have positioned for the long term with many value propositions. In the short run I have been the "price is right" winner on a few things like GOOG and ISRG and I don't share many peoples pessimism for the stock market. We have been net buyers in January and February looks to be the same. Who knows, I might even get crazy and buy some Amazon some day.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the design and research principal for an architecture & planning firm. To find potential opportunities and verify my track record read Chasing Value or Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of ISRG.
2007 was not a fun year for many investors. The stock market wasn't just volatile, it was downright manic, swooning between euphoric highs and cataclysmic depressions in the blink of an eye.
Stocks took frequent and at times unjustified beatings as investors fretted about everything from the subprime mortgage crisis to political instability in the Middle East. Nonetheless, the major indices ended the year on a positive note, which indicates that at least some people on Wall Street, including Warren Buffett, see reason for optimism.
For example, the S&P 500 Index ended this year up 3.5%, which should give millions of index fund investors reason to celebrate in their own quiet, conservative way. The big winners were energy companies, which according to Bloomberg News, gained 34% as a group. National-Oilwell Varco Inc. (NYSE: NOV), the biggest oilfield services company, surged 143% through December 28, the most of any company in the index, Bloomberg says, adding that the biggest loser was Countrywide Financial Corp. (NYSE: CFC), not surprisingly.
Bravo to all those Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) shareholders that were looking for the share price to pass $200 this year, because today it did just that! The stock reached $200.96 just before 2:00 PM EST.
I can just picture my colleague Georges Yared smiling at the news since he has been the most fervent Apple supporter. I'm sure one of our frequent commenters "Beltway Greg" is patting himself on the back at his huge call. Both of them envisioned this milestone as realistic, although perhaps not so soon.
Greg even wanted to bet me that Apple would reach the $200 mark within a twelve month period. If memory serves me correct he not only would have won the bet, but done so six months early. Apple closed on the 24th at $198.80 and is up pennies today after trading in a $4 range throughout the day.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer suspects that nimble traders can enjoy real gains on this sector's run into year-end.
Can someone remind me what the bear case for tech was?
Oracle (NASDAQ: ORCL) (Cramer's Take), which has a huge business in financial services, shoots the lights out with a remarkable quarter. And then right on top of it, Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) (Cramer's Take), again laden with financial services, issues a huge quarter that kind of blows the mind after all that it has done already.
Before that we had Adobe (NASDAQ: ADBE) (Cramer's Take), again a much-used product in finance, print a quarter that was so strong that I was surprised the stock didn't leap.
One of the things that has been most exciting about this moment is that there has been no real let-up in tech worldwide. And by the way, I still insist that Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) (Cramer's Take) quarter was not that bad and the emerging growth and financial services businesses aren't enough really slowing or are slowing less than people think.
First, the root cause of all of this is the somewhat off-handed comment about how the financial services industry has cut back on spending for systems.
We never want to hear any company say anything about spending cuts by customers. It is intriguing that the only place where spending was hit was by these customers. It was enough to kill all tech, though.
Is it right? If tech hadn't been so hyped and if tech wasn't so linked to financial services, I don't know how much we would be down.
The Volatility Index for S&P 500 Options (VIX) is down 0.52 to 14.44.
Louisiana Pacific(NYSE: LPX) call volume Heavy, volatility Higher on renewed Chatter. LPX is recently up .28 to $20.77. LPX has been frequently mentioned as possibly returning cash to shareholders or as a candidate for private equity LBO bid. LPX had 2006 total revenue of $2.2 billion. LPX has a market cap of $2.1 billion with long term debt of $644 million. LPX call option volume of 6,927 contracts compares to put volume of 164 contracts. LPX April option implied volatility of 32 is above its 26-week average of 29 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price fluctuations.
Houston Wire & Cable(NASDAQ: HWCC) volatility Flat; call volume heavy on secondary offering. HWCC offers specialty wire & cable. HWCC is recently up .78 to $27.46. HWCC announced a secondary offering of 5.5 million shares to 6.5 million shares. The price of the offering was set at $25. HWCC has a market cap of $569 million with long term debt of $12 million. HWCC reported 2006 total revenue of $323 million. HWCC call option volume of 2,275 contracts compares to put volume of 23 contracts. HWCC May option implied volatility of 47 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price risks.
If you've been following my blog, you know I've recommended Napster Inc. (NASDAQ:NAPS) twice. Once was last June when it was around $3, and again in October when it had gained 50% to $4.50. I had predicted it could get to $6, and I still believe that.
The stock has lost some value since then, but it jumped again earlier this month when it was announced that AOL would make Napster its exclusive provider for AOL Music. Formerly provided by AOL Now, the service has more than 300,000 subscribers and will provide a nice revenue bump for Napster.
The stock has dipped again since the announcement, but I think that was investors taking profits and that doesn't worry me. Napster is still a stock that can continue to make you money. NAPS is still operating at a loss, but its numbers are improving. Revenues for the first two quarters of 2006 were up over the same quarters in 2005. For the six months ending Sept. 30, 2006, earnings were up 20% and operating expenses were down 25% compared to the six months ending Sept. 30, 2005. The digital music industry doubled in 2006 to $2 billion, but it still represents a small percentage of sales, which means there is still plenty of room for growth in this side of the business.
Yes, there certainly is risk here. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) continues to dominate the market, and competition is fierce from rivals like RealNetworks and Rhapsody. But Napster still has a recognized and solid brand name, and is still rumored to be an acquisition target for a company that can use its revenue stream and brand.
Type of stock: A digital music company with growing revenues, a good brand name, and the potential for acquisition.
Price target: I think Napster is still a good buy at $4; especially if you're willing to be patient. If you want to be more careful, wait for it to drop to $3.50. The stock should hit $6 in 2007.
Hilary Kramer is a financial editor and money coach for AOL and an authority on investing. Visit her at www.hilarykramer.com.
My colleague Melly Alazraki wrote a post today about a bar in Des Moines, Iowa, that decided to have a little "iPod Monday" party. Patrons could show up, have a few beers and share their latest playlists or podcasts. Not my idea of a jolly time, but they probably don't have a lot to do out in Des Moines on Monday nights.
Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) somehow got wind of this event, which amused maybe 45 people at most, and issued a cease and desist email to the bar owner telling him to stop using Apple's trademarked names. Jeez. Overreact much? I wonder how much Apple legal counsel bills for this sort of thing.
Seems a lot of companies, in their zeal to protect themselves, shoot themselves in the foot with this sort of small thinking. Word gets out about the company's silly over-reaction, and people start to lose respect. Eventually this takes its toll. Just look at Disney. So much as put a Princess on a Girl Scout flyer and it will swoop down upon you like the Angel of Litigation. Okay, I exaggerate here, but the Walt Disney Co. (NYSE:DIS) is known for its ruthless copyright protection. For a brand built on cartoon characters, it doesn't have much of a sense of humor.
These companies have a right to protect their brands, of course. But a little perspective is in order. Viacom Inc. (NYSE:VIA)'s got a big problem with its product going up for free on YouTube. Apple should not have a problem with a bunch of good ol' boys in Des Moines crying into their beers while listening to Patsy Cline on their iPods.
PR and advertising execs know all about the damage bad public perception can wreak on a company. Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) and Wal-Mart Stores (NYSE:WAL) should understand this, too. Apple has the reputation of thinking big. It should stop acting small.
About a month ago I posted Serious Money: AAPL, EBAY, GE, GOOG, MSFT, TWX, WMT, YHOO -- one more look, covering the original Great Eight stocks we focused on at BloggingStocks. These were based on reader interest, which they do still generate today.
This month saw great improvement after last month's disaster. Having to conclude my findings on a specific month end day, or any day, depending on the news, sometimes distorts results. For example news on March 31 sent the market down and on April first my picks shot up an unusual amount; hopefully the trend will continue.
Since I have been a shareholder of 
After three months it is time to face the facts: two of the three indices beat my picks handily. I have not made a good showing so far and unlike most investment idea sources, I feel obliged to air my dirty laundry for all to see.
I just finished reading a lively little blog piece furnished by 
A lot of last years' favorite high flyers have come back down to earth. Some of them are starting to resemble bank stocks. However, I have read nothing of 
few truths and many unknowns. There is a lot of huffing and puffing about current and future valuations. 
Don't even get me started on 
2007 was not a fun year for many investors. The stock market wasn't just volatile, it was downright manic, swooning between euphoric highs and cataclysmic depressions in the blink of an eye.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer suspects that nimble traders can enjoy real gains on this sector's run into year-end.
If you've been following my blog, you know I've recommended Napster Inc. (NASDAQ:
For blue chip buyers: 'This too shall pass'
With the Fed Funds rate at 2%, why are mortgage rates so high?
Cramer on BloggingStocks: Banks fail to raise money when they could 
