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Apple's Jobs: No buybacks or dividends coming

Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) continues to have some of the most sought-after products in the tech world between the iPhone, its iPods and its Mac computers. Although AAPL shares have swooned down 37% in 2008 after hitting $200 earlier in the year, the good news continues for the company at a time when market volatility has hit it hard.

CEO and company co-founder Steve Jobs is sticking to his guns, saying that Apple still has no plans for releasing a dividend to shareholders nor buy back shares to pump up the stock price. In other words, there's no knee-jerk reaction from Jobs based on silly market antics that have depressed the share price of his company. Apple's annual shareholder's meeting happened yesterday at its Cupertino, Ca. headquarters, and Jobs reiterated that the company will indeed sell 10 million iPhones in 2008.

Still, the market has punished Apple's share price in the last 60 days in severe fashion. The company missed its second-quarter financial expectations, creating a market frenzy around a possible slowdown of consumer cash aimed at Apple's products. Then again, Jobs said that the iPhone would be introduced into Asia in 2008 and Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer reiterated that Apple's investments have "not had any material losses to date on (sic) our investment portfolio."

Apple's iTunes set to displace Wal-Mart as largest music retailer in U.S.

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) is the world's largest retailer, and the largest U.S. retailer of music. The retailer sells more CDs than anyone, but that dominance is being threatened in a paradigm shift that's been coming for years now: the digital download.

Apple, Inc.
(NASDAQ: AAPL)'s iTunes online music, video and movie store will likely surpass Wal-Mart as the largest music seller in the U.S. without a single physical product being sold some time this year. Research group NPD estimates that iTunes has moved past discount retailer Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) and consumer electronics retailer Best Buy, Inc. (NYSE: BBY)

"Digital sales were up close to 50% and CD sales were down 20 % last year ... even at half that growth rate in digital sales, Apple will in all likelihood catch Wal-Mart this year," according to NPD. As has been predicted for quite a long time, the CD, while still popular, is slowly fading away, although the transition to an all-digital music future in the U.S. is far from complete.

But, it's happening -- and with teens leading the way (but not owning credit cards in most cases), online music retailers need to make it easier for core customer groups to buy online. If every 15 year-old can go online and buy music without a credit card in the future, the transition will only see more speed.

Apple hires former Wal-Mart exec for int'l iTunes efforts

Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) wants to increase the visibility of its market-leading digital media store -- iTunes -- and has hired a former Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) to do it. Kevin Swint's last position was with the world's largest retailer, where he led the effort to establish the retailer as a destination of digital music and movies. That didn't work out too well insofar as movies, so perhaps Apple will provide Swint with a few more resources to get the job done right at Apple.

Swint's responsibilities at Apple will center around international market share growth for Apple's iTunes movie, television and related entertainment content distribution in markets outside the U.S.

The amount of content available from Apple's separate iTunes presence for various countries offer a widely inconsistent offering of content due to complex international distribution deals regarding digital content.

Although Apple announced movie rentals through its U.S. iTunes store at January's CES, the new service was not launched internationally. Apple CEO Steve Jobs said that the company "was dying" to make that happen though, hence the appointment of Swint to the iTunes international post.

Apple's Mac OS X sees third month of increasing market share

Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) has been taken to task in the recent past for the iPod "halo" effect in which sales of the ubiquitous music player create demand for its PCs. Perhaps the theory is working after all, as the company's Mac OS X has seen its third straight month of operating system market share gains as of the end of January. This was no doubt helped by holiday sales of Mac PCs and laptops.

Net Applications, Inc. declared that Mac OS-based systems were responsible for 7.6% of all website visits to the sites that it uses for tracking operating system market share levels. The same tracking company measured a 7.3% gain for the Mac OS in December as well. Is this due to more web surfers using Apple machines? It could be, but it could also just be a seasonal bump as well. Net Applications says that its figures represent about 160 million visitors to the cadre of sites is uses as the backbone of its measurement system.

What will be impressive is if Apple continually -- but slowly -- builds operating system market share during the first half of 2008 and builds on it further as the year presses on. In January, Microsoft Corp.'s (NASDAQ: MSFT) market share for its Windows operating systems (all versions) stood at 91.5% -- but that's down from 93.3% a year ago. Although Apple's market share is not in the same league at the present, the company is definitely making progress.Throw in Ubuntu Linux into the mix and Windows may have some serious challenges ahead -- although it may take years to see Windows fall beneath the 85% market share level.

Apple iPhone sales discrepancy with AT&T activations is overblown

It seems that market analysts and pundits can't stop pulling out their anal selves from the woodwork to worry about possible sales discrepancies between Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s iPhone sales numbers and accompanying AT&T, Inc. (NYSE: T) iPhone activations. Some have even pointed out what I call the one million plus unit discrepancy.

Is this speculate discrepancy way off the mark? Analyst Ezra Gottheil thinks so. There is some market fear that Apple's iPhone sales not meeting up with AT&T's iPhone activations means that Apple stands to lose out on two years worth of revenue on those "missing iPhones." Apple's sweetheart deal with AT&T gives the tech company a cut of every AT&T iPhone customer's monthly bill, you see.

Does Apple stand to lose future revenue streams by selling iPhones that are not activated by AT&T customers? Sure -- but it's not a huge financial impact to the company according to Gottheil. Although quite a few iPhones have been rumored to have been sold, unlocked (using multiple hacking methods) and used with non-AT&T wireless carriers, these numbers have not been wholly verified by either Apple or AT&T. Has AT&T stockpiled unactivated iPhones that represent Apple's sales numbers and AT&T's lower iPhone activation numbers? That's highly doubtful. Until a solid explanation comes forward, is it that big of a deal to Apple pundits? For the time being, it seems so.

Best Buy plans to ramp up Apple presence in 2008

The largest consumer electronics retailer in the U.S., Best Buy, Inc. (NYSE: BBY), plans to step up the presence Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) has in its stores this year. Best Buy is planning to have twice as many stores displaying Apple's Macintosh PC products, from the iMac to the MacBook. Now, this isn't an official statement more than a highly likely plan, according to a UBS analyst who dug up dirt on 2008 planning from company executives.

If this is true, it would come as no surprise. Apple has garnered an ever-increasing share of the PC market as of late, and Best Buy has been pounding on competitor Circuit City Stores, Inc. (NYSE: CC) with all its force. Best Buy's closest Apple-carrying competitor, CompUSA, is in the process of permanently shutting its doors as well.

Apple's display area in Best Buy stores is very odd, but smack's of Apple's marketing arrogance and the power it has to control the look and feel of its entire presence wherever Apple PC products are merchandised. Apple has "stores within a store" that separate the Apple presence completely from other PC products in an age when all PCs are commodity products anyway.

Oops, except for Apple products -- which do feature a non-Microsoft operating system, industry-leading design and style and superior marketing compared to any global PC brand. Those facts alone dictate Apple PC products be placed in a league all their own. In Best Buy stores, that league it set to expand rapidly in 2008.

Apple facing high expectations at Macworld

While the staff at Engadget prepares for Steve Jobs' verbal onslaught tomorrow at the Macworld conference in San Francisco, investors will be dancing around today with visions of new Apple products in their heads.

This time last year, Jobs dropped the iPhone on the world and the cellphone market hasn't been the same since. Instead of giving into the death grip wireless carriers had on handsets and customers as well, Jobs gave the power to itself and the customer. So the world will be asking today: what exactly is up Steve's sleeve? Answers abound, but probably just a few key people really know what's going to go down this week at Macworld. Right now, Jobs has those people bound and gagged behind his Macworld stage. Just kidding.

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s stock will start the day slightly over $172 per share after touching $200 just a few weeks ago. If there is any hype, it can't possibly be bigger than the iPhone that was rumored to be announced a year ago -- and was. Could there be any higher expectation tomorrow when Jobs announces ... whatever he will announce? Very doubtful. Whatever comes out of Apple's coffers tomorrow during Jobs' keynote will probably disappoint the market compared to the nuttiness the iPhone announcement generated.

Does that mean Apple's future is dimming? Not at all -- but the company may have set itself up for media questions like "is this all Apple could announce?" come tomorrow unless it can surpass the market buzz the iPhone generated. Two candidates have emerged: a mini-laptop that weighs a few pounds and a smaller iPhone that works on faster 3G wireless data networks. Would a newer, smaller iPhone kick the Apple investment community into high gear? Absolutely.

Apple adds Avon's Andrea Jung to board

Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) has wooed Avon Products, Inc. (NYSE: AVP) CEO Andrea Jung to its board of directors, giving the Apple board a count of eight members as of January 2008. At this point in time, this really does make sense for Apple and the decision is a great one. Here's why.

Jung, who has been with Avon for over 11 years, is deeply entrenched into how direct sales and marketing strategies apply to women. Although Apple's iPod has been geek-lust for many teenage boys and 20-somethings (among other demographics), the marketing of the iPod has almost always involved women in some form.

Continue reading Apple adds Avon's Andrea Jung to board

Apple's guidance: Time to be honest?

After witnessing countless Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) conference calls and earnings announcements in the last few years, I think it's safe to say that the hottest consumer tech company goes out of its way to underestimate quarterly numbers so it can "surprise" analysts with one blowout quarter after another. While other companies try to predict exactly how each quarter will go, Apple plays that game like it does consumer marketing: very slick and masterfully smart.

But are those conservative guidance press releases slipping? Is Apple trying to be truer to what it really thinks it will make when upcoming quarterly guidance is released? That's the thought from some market watchers. Analysts picked up on the "undersell" tactic Apple has been using for quite some time and has fed clients the real deal on Apple's expectations.

But when Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer gave out Q1 guidance back in October that seemed to be very aggressive -- with expectations of a $9.2 billion holiday quarter -- was he sandbagging or playing the standard line? Hard to tell. But if some analysts are correct, that expectation could be deceptive.

Continue reading Apple's guidance: Time to be honest?

Will Google and Apple partner for upcoming FCC auctions?

With Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) now saying that it will indeed participate in January's FCC bandwidth auctions, one has to wonder which other non-telecom companies may throw their own hats into the ring. Google, who makes a low-key presence known while it plans to dominate the world's information distribution, may try to trump the establishes, bloated telecom carriers and bring its services directly to customers. In a sense, though, there's another company that would probably love to do that as well -- Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL).

In fact, it's been said as much by Bob Cringely that Apple will be joining Google in bidding for some wireless airwaves come January. The two companies make a rather neat pair. After all, Google CEO Eric Schmidt does sit on the Apple board of directors.

While Apple is all about closed product ecosystems that work exceedingly well and are simple to use for all customers, Google operates in a completely open ecosystem that encourages direct customer interaction over a "walled garden" approach. In a sense, Apple and Google operate different business models. But, when it comes to taking their collective products direct to the customer, the two companies see eye-to-eye.

Continue reading Will Google and Apple partner for upcoming FCC auctions?

AppleTV: One of the company's non-best sellers

Although Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) continues to be the hottest consumer tech company in the world on many fronts, it doesn't always serve up a home run with each and every product it makes, markets and sells. Case in point: the AppleTV product.

I love Apple products and always have. The ease of simplicity and excellent design are marvels of modern electronics. But what's always stuck in my side like a thorn is the inflexibility of the company's non-computer products. It's a reason I don't own a single Apple product.

But, the impending flop of the AppleTV product has just a little to do with inflexibility. Yes, there is a world outside Apple's iTunes, but if you own an AppleTV product, that's the environment you're locked into (with YouTube thrown in for good measure) without hacking your unit. Same goes for the iPod, as we all know.

Continue reading AppleTV: One of the company's non-best sellers

Apple (AAPL) iPhone's major security risk

When I meet fans of Apple, Inc.'s (NASDAQ: AAPL) products, it quickly becomes obvious that these people are in love with the brand. I highly admire Apple myself, although I own none of the company's products. The marketing, design and advertising finesse the company displays has literally no equal in the world right now when it comes to consumer electronics.

But after reading this article about the iPhone's security problems, one begins to think about all the possible time-bombs that are in the clutches of Apple's fans right now. The iPhone product, which sold over one million units in the first three months of launch as reported in Apple's quarterly results this week, is a phenomenon that's still going strong. It has technical shortcomings, but those are easy to ignore given its user interface and 'wow' factor. Evidently, though, there is a major thorn in the side of the product, and it's one that could prove disastrous if the iPhone becomes as ubiquitous as the Windows PC became over a decade ago.

The flaw, as noted by several computer security experts, rests in the way the iPhone's operating system was designed. A popular product -- like Microsoft's Windows, for example -- always becomes a target of digital thieves and hackers, and so far, the iPhone is headed up that scale very rapidly. Security experts liken the problems inherent with Apple's iPhone to the same problems Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) faced when it released Windows 95 over 10 years ago.

Continue reading Apple (AAPL) iPhone's major security risk

Whole Lotta Love: Apple's iTunes store starts pre-order for Led Zeppelin

When the levee breaks ... baby, you gotta buy!

The entire catalog of 1970s rock band Led Zeppelin became available for pre-order on Apple Inc.'s (NASDAQ: AAPL) iTunes Store yesterday, reports Billboard. Fans who want it all will be able to use the $99 "one-click download" for the band's entire 165-song catalog, but that does not become available until November 13, the day when the catalog can be downloaded.

According to Apple and iTunes executives, securing the Zeppelin catalog has been in the works for four years, and is a really "exciting" time, since the band has been one of the most requested. Billboard also comments the addition leaves only The Beatles and Radiohead as the only two major acts not available from the digital store. The "one-click download" or "digital boxed set" is another feature that iTunes is wielding especially for Led Zeppelin, as executive Eddy Cue told Billboard: "We've held this out for the special artists that have a significant fan base. It's probably the best boxed set we've ever done, in any kind of price range."

With the massive, and low-priced iTunes digital boxed set becoming available the same day as the new greatest hits album Mothership, one has to wonder whether it will make any impact on the physical sales of that compilation. Clearly the 2-disc set will be much cheaper than the boxed set, but an offer such as that makes it easy to acquire the band's entire catalog versus a simple 24-track glimpse. It will be interesting to see if this digital boxed set can impact physical sales more than previous entire catalog sets from iTunes as the number of tracks and price are significantly lower than previous "collections" (For comparison, consider the 2006 $199.99 773-track Bob Dylan Collection -- but the track-per-price ratio there is even better.)

Will only hardcore Zep fans want the "boxed" set over the physical CD set? Time will tell. But as a special bonus, fans who pre-order the tunes get entered into a drawing to attend the band's one-off concert in London this November 26. Now that's a whole lotta love.

Apple's new Leopard operating system for sale October 26

Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s newest Macintosh operating system -- Leopard -- will officially go on sale October 26 (just under two weeks from today). Unlike Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), Apple releases new operating systems every year to two years. By contrast, the time difference between the release of Microsoft's Windows XP and Windows Vista operating systems was over five years.

That being said, so Mac users flock to upgrade every time a new operating system comes out? Hard to say, but every Apple fan I know borders on zealot (this is not a bad thing), and they do indeed upgrade every time something new comes out. I sense in many cases this is nothing more than psychological pride over genuine utility addition, but I could be mistaken.

Will Leopard's release bode well for Apple's coffers, then? Sure, but the question of how much is still up for debate. Apple's iPod phenomenon -- and now, iPhone phenomenon -- has translated into a growing market share for Apple PCs, and this "halo effect" has been tracked and followed with journalistic vigor in every nook and cranny of the media and blogosphere. What more could yet another upgrade add to this honey pot?

Apple's shares are sitting at an all-time high at the moment due to the perfectly-timed release of new iPods in September, along with the growing market for the revolutionary (yet already outdated in many ways) iPhone. Adding new eye candy to Apple's PC market will do nothing but help bump the company's stock price to over $200 if holiday sell-through does well. Perhaps the iPod was just a means to get customers flocking to Apple's PC segment, since in the long term, the iPod's remarkable sales sustainability can't keep up the torrid pace it has in the past -- or can it? Regardless, the company wants customers buying new PCs to think "Mac" instead of "Windows," and a newer version that looks and feels better than the last will only help that effort.

Apple (AAPL) price target raised to $180 by Morgan Stanley

Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) continued to see its highest-ever share price this week, closing yesterday right under $163 per share. Right at the time this post was being written, AAPL shares stood at $165.58, up over 2% from yesterday's close. Are the company's shares headed to $200?

In an easy answer, yes they are -- but the question is, will it happen this year? That depends on iPhone sales numbers plus sales for its newer iPod products, released just in time for holiday pickings in standard Apple release schedule fashion.

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) wisely upped its price target on Apple from $150 to $180 this week, citing the iPhone's forecasted ability to drive "more ancillary revenue" than the investment house's previous guess. In addition, Morgan Stanley said that market estimates still are not taking into account Apple's "true operating margin potential."

With the company settled in for yet another blockbuster iPod holiday sales season as well as the impending release of its new Leopard MacIntosh computer operating system, perhaps Morgan Stanley should reconsider its $180 target and go for the jugular at $200. Maybe even that level is too low.

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Last updated: December 02, 2008: 10:49 AM

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