I was checking out Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) today to see how the stock was reacting after its earnings report. At the time I began writing this, the shares were up over 3% to $10.25 per stub; as I was about to send it off to be published, it was up over 5% to $10.49. The market is kidding me, right?
Melly Alazraki reported on the company's data this morning. The $0.20 per share in adjusted earnings booked for the fourth quarter beat expectations by three pennies. Yeah, I know, beating estimates is the big game on Wall Street. And yes, it is a good thing. However, not every earnings-beat is equal. You have to look at each business carefully and evaluate it relative to the macro environment. Applied Materials will be cutting 1,800 jobs. The market likes that, of course, and believes that cost savings will help profits down the line. However, cutting jobs isn't necessarily a sign that a business is about to get stronger; sometimes, it means the opposite. Also, top-line sales declined by double digits, and with bad news coming from Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC), we know that the slowdown is going to get worse. Furthermore, the market drop earlier today is confirming that bad times will be with us for a while.
In that context, I can't see buying Applied Materials. I mean, up 5%? I know the argument -- you've got to start discounting better times and pick up shares when their cheap. Yeah, right. It is true that the market will do that at some point but we're not there yet. Back in August, I wrote about Applied Materials' Q3 numbers. The stock was higher at that point, and it was working off a higher 52-week low. Now, things have turned south on both counts. And I think they could go further south. At a time when even buying Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) is an exercise in fear-management, I don't think Applied Materials is a tech stock that should be on anyone's list of investment ideas.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.
Minyanville Professor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.
The earnings report from Applied Materials, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMAT) was not solid but the stock sure is, which is what happens when the market starts looking at enterprise value beyond a quarterly EPS report. The stock has been cheap for some time with only the solar catalyst providing occasional lift. Contrary to other noteworthy opinions, I have not heard AMAT call a bottom or "trough" in the cycle for many a quarterly call. It has called for a reduction in the decline in certain product lines, while calling for strength in others. But as far as a broad cyclical "trough" this is the first I heard them utter that since 2005 -- and at that point the company was half right and half wrong.
Lam Research Corporation (Nasdaq: LRCX) had the best report I've seen in the sub-group. If the (SOX) keeps showing strength then I presume the group may be led by the high quality semi-caps possibly through the first quarter of 2009.
Cree, Inc. (Nasdaq: CREE) report was also noteworthy as the shares have really been hammered of late. The company beat and raised revenue guidance by a touch. However, the thing that has kept me out of CREE for more than just an occasional trade is the lack of EPS traction it seems to have, even on higher revenues. And next quarter's guidance is more evidence of that. From time to time CREE can ramp, and when it does, it's usually a compelling move. So I mainly keep the name on the radar as a technical trading vehicle. If CREE were to back fill to the mid $19's I may add a partial.
Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT), a technology company that provides solutions to industries involved with such things as semiconductors, flat panel displays and solar photovoltaic cells, and whose colleagues include KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) and LAM Research (NASDAQ: LRCX), reported earnings for the third quarter on Tuesday.
They weren't great. The top line decreased by 28%, coming in at $1.8 billion. Adjusted earnings per diluted share dropped well over 50% to 17 cents. Although these numbers are horrible, it should be noted that the company at least beat estimates of 14 cents per share.
Well, not to be a downer or anything, but Applied Materials is not the tech stock I want to be in right now. It is suffering through a dismal economic environment, and the growth rates just don't look good. Not only do you have these year-over-year declines, but you've also got sequential-quarter statistics showing a negative trend. Plus, new orders are down significantly, and the gross margin took a dive.
Is there any saving grace to the report? Yes. Cash flow from operations was essentially flat over the nine-month timeframe at almost $1.6 billion. Hey, flat is better than a decline, correct?
LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) is recently trading at $40.25 in pre-open trading, above its close of $33.58. LDK reported Q2 revenue of $441.7 million, up 89.2% quarter-over-quarter. ThinkEquity says: "The shares of LDK offer significant upside, with its impending polysilicon production, which should lower the company's cost structure significantly." LDK August 35 straddle is priced at $3.95. LDK September call option implied volatility is at 74, puts are at 85; near its 26-week average according to Track Data. LDK puts are priced higher than calls because LDK is difficult to borrow.
Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) closed at $18.46 Monday. AMAT is scheduled to report Q3 EPS after the market close today. Kaufman Bros says: "We reiterate our Hold and $19 price target." AMAT August straddle 18 is priced at $1.10, September is at $1.90. AMAT September option implied volatility of 36 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional movement after EPS.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
After hitting a one-year high of $23.00 in August, the stock hit a one-year low of $16.13 in January. This morning, AMAT opened at $17.32. So far today the stock has hit a low of $17.25 and a high of $18.06. As of 12:25, AMAT is trading at $17.654, down 70 cents (-3.8%). The chart for AMAT looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bear-call credit spread above the $22 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 7.1% return in three months as long as AMAT is below $22 at October expiration. AMAT would have to rise by more than 24% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
AMAT hasn't been above $22 since last August and has shown resistance around $21 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out in mid-August) are a positive surprise, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance AMAT might find at its 200 day moving average, which is currently around $19 and falling.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in AMAT.
With the high fuel prices over the past year, solar stocks have been making some nice gains. But there are some signs that they may not be as safe as they appear. Investors' interest in solar companies increased due to soaring crude futures, but there are some factors to take into account before investing money into solar.
The current BusinessWeeklooks at stocks such as First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR), SolarWorld and Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ: ESLR), which have been facing increased volatility based on contract deal news or the lack thereof.
A major impact came in May, with speculation that Germany would lower subsidies given to companies and individuals who install alternative energy equipment. But the cut was not as deep as expected and stocks rebounded nicely.
On Tuesday, microchip equipment maker Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) reported a drop in its fiscal second quarter earnings due in part to a glut of flash memory chips, and organic and natural food retailer Whole Foods Market Inc. (NASDAQ: WFMI) also said second quarter profits fell, due to integrating its Wild Oats acquisition.
Applied Materials posted earnings of $302.5 million, or 22 cents per share, for the quarter ended April 27, compared with a profit of $411.4 million or 29 cents per share in the same period a year ago. Its adjusted net income came to 24 cents per share, beating the average analyst forecast of 22 cents, according to Reuters estimates.
Second-quarter revenue fell to $2.15 billion from $2.53 billion in the previous year. Analysts on average had expected revenue of $2.13 billion.
Shares fell 1.3% after the news but rose 2.7% in after-hours trading to $20.40.
Whole Foods reported that sales surged 28% in the second quarter to $1.87 billion, from $1.4 billion in the previous year. But net income fell 13% to $40 million, or 29 cents per share, in the quarter ended April 13; the acquisition of rival Wild Oats cost it 6 cents per share.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial had predicted a profit of 30 cents per share on revenue of $1.89 billion.
Shares of Whole Foods fell $2.94, or 8.7%, to $30.70 in after-hours trading.
The Wall Street Journal takes an amusing look at the results of SEC efforts to require more detailed and meaningful disclosure about executive pay. Referring to Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT), the Journal reports that "this year, it expanded by 76% the word count of its proxy's compensation section. In all, the compensation section contains 16,245 words -- twice the length of the U.S. Constitution and its 27 Amendments -- along with 10 formulas, 10 tables and 155 percent signs."
The result is a document that's incredibly confusing, full of formulas like this one:
Weighted Score = (Performance Measure 1 x Weight as Percentage) + (Performance Measure 2 x Weight as Percentage).
But in a way, we shouldn't be surprised. Applied Materials has paid its executives millions in compensation, but its stock price is lower than it was in 2001!
The reason that such long pay disclosures are required is that there is no particularly reasonable way to explain why top executives were paid millions while shareholders lost money. To use the random walk analogy, it's like trying to ask a drunk staggering around in a field why he's walking in the path he's walking. He's drunk! It can't possibly make sense.
If a company needs 16,245 words to explain why it paid its executives the amount it paid them, they're most likely full of crap.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: UBS AG, KLA-Tencor and Level 3 Comm were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Keefe Bruyette downgraded shares of UBS (NYSE: UBS) to Underperform from Market Perform as they expect as they expect further write-downs to erase profits in 2008.
Oppenheimer downgraded shares of KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) to Underperform from Perform after checks indicated Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) has chosen Applied Materials' (NASDAQ: AMAT) reticle inspection tool for its entire 32nm node after a long period of evaluation against KLA-Tencor. Oppenheimer believes this represents a $300M shift from KLA-Tencor's dominant market share in reticle inspection.
Jefferies cut Level 3 Communications (NASDAQ: LVLT) to Hold from Buy as they see limited opportunity for near-term share appreciation given the company's integration challenges and the added uncertainty from recent management changes.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Keefe Bruyette downgraded Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS) to Market Perform from Outperform.
Kroger (NYSE: KR) was downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
Minyanville Professor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit 
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