Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT - option chain) stock is falling today after company CEO Mike Splinter said that weak demand and high development costs could lead to multiple failures in the semiconductor equipment sector. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on AMAT.

This morning, AMAT opened at $11.87. So far today the stock has hit a low of $11.53 and a high of $11.88. As of 11:30, AMAT is trading at $11.57, down $0.49 (-4.1%). The chart for AMAT looks bullish and S&P gives AMAT a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) reported Q2 numbers earlier in the week. They were dismal, to say the least. According to Jon Ogg's Closing Bell on Wednesday, the semiconductor business saw its top line reduced by 50%, and the adjusted loss came to 10 cents per share. Yes, yes, that met expectations. So what? The article also mentioned that the solar operation wasn't doing so hot.

Looking through the actual earnings release, I don't see a lot of things that would make a shareholder happy. Backlog was down. Applied Materials had to use cash to keep things going over the last six months (obviously investors would rather see cash generated from operations). And CEO Mike Splinter described the current climate as very tough in terms of customer demand.

I was checking out Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) today to see how the stock was reacting after its earnings report. At the time I began writing this, the shares were up over 3% to $10.25 per stub; as I was about to send it off to be published, it was up over 5% to $10.49. The market is kidding me, right?

Melly Alazraki reported on the company's data this morning. The $0.20 per share in adjusted earnings booked for the fourth quarter beat expectations by three pennies. Yeah, I know, beating estimates is the big game on Wall Street. And yes, it is a good thing. However, not every earnings-beat is equal. You have to look at each business carefully and evaluate it relative to the macro environment. Applied Materials will be cutting 1,800 jobs. The market likes that, of course, and believes that cost savings will help profits down the line. However, cutting jobs isn't necessarily a sign that a business is about to get stronger; sometimes, it means the opposite. Also, top-line sales declined by double digits, and with bad news coming from Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC), we know that the slowdown is going to get worse. Furthermore, the market drop earlier today is confirming that bad times will be with us for a while.

In that context, I can't see buying Applied Materials. I mean, up 5%? I know the argument -- you've got to start discounting better times and pick up shares when their cheap. Yeah, right. It is true that the market will do that at some point but we're not there yet. Back in August, I wrote about Applied Materials' Q3 numbers. The stock was higher at that point, and it was working off a higher 52-week low. Now, things have turned south on both counts. And I think they could go further south. At a time when even buying Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) is an exercise in fear-management, I don't think Applied Materials is a tech stock that should be on anyone's list of investment ideas.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Minyanville Professor Sean Udall dares to share the kind of keen insight and actionable information you won't find in any prospectus. For more original thought, visit www.minyanville.com.

The earnings report from Applied Materials, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMAT) was not solid but the stock sure is, which is what happens when the market starts looking at enterprise value beyond a quarterly EPS report. The stock has been cheap for some time with only the solar catalyst providing occasional lift. Contrary to other noteworthy opinions, I have not heard AMAT call a bottom or "trough" in the cycle for many a quarterly call. It has called for a reduction in the decline in certain product lines, while calling for strength in others. But as far as a broad cyclical "trough" this is the first I heard them utter that since 2005 -- and at that point the company was half right and half wrong.

Lam Research Corporation (Nasdaq: LRCX) had the best report I've seen in the sub-group. If the (SOX) keeps showing strength then I presume the group may be led by the high quality semi-caps possibly through the first quarter of 2009.

Cree, Inc. (Nasdaq: CREE) report was also noteworthy as the shares have really been hammered of late. The company beat and raised revenue guidance by a touch. However, the thing that has kept me out of CREE for more than just an occasional trade is the lack of EPS traction it seems to have, even on higher revenues. And next quarter's guidance is more evidence of that. From time to time CREE can ramp, and when it does, it's usually a compelling move. So I mainly keep the name on the radar as a technical trading vehicle. If CREE were to back fill to the mid $19's I may add a partial.

Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT), a technology company that provides solutions to industries involved with such things as semiconductors, flat panel displays and solar photovoltaic cells, and whose colleagues include KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) and LAM Research (NASDAQ: LRCX), reported earnings for the third quarter on Tuesday.

They weren't great. The top line decreased by 28%, coming in at $1.8 billion. Adjusted earnings per diluted share dropped well over 50% to 17 cents. Although these numbers are horrible, it should be noted that the company at least beat estimates of 14 cents per share.

Well, not to be a downer or anything, but Applied Materials is not the tech stock I want to be in right now. It is suffering through a dismal economic environment, and the growth rates just don't look good. Not only do you have these year-over-year declines, but you've also got sequential-quarter statistics showing a negative trend. Plus, new orders are down significantly, and the gross margin took a dive.

Is there any saving grace to the report? Yes. Cash flow from operations was essentially flat over the nine-month timeframe at almost $1.6 billion. Hey, flat is better than a decline, correct?

LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK) is recently trading at $40.25 in pre-open trading, above its close of $33.58. LDK reported Q2 revenue of $441.7 million, up 89.2% quarter-over-quarter. ThinkEquity says: "The shares of LDK offer significant upside, with its impending polysilicon production, which should lower the company's cost structure significantly." LDK August 35 straddle is priced at $3.95. LDK September call option implied volatility is at 74, puts are at 85; near its 26-week average according to Track Data. LDK puts are priced higher than calls because LDK is difficult to borrow.

Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) closed at $18.46 Monday. AMAT is scheduled to report Q3 EPS after the market close today. Kaufman Bros says: "We reiterate our Hold and $19 price target." AMAT August straddle 18 is priced at $1.10, September is at $1.90. AMAT September option implied volatility of 36 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional movement after EPS.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

The current BusinessWeek looks at stocks such as First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR), SolarWorld and Evergreen Solar (NASDAQ: ESLR), which have been facing increased volatility based on contract deal news or the lack thereof.

A major impact came in May, with speculation that Germany would lower subsidies given to companies and individuals who install alternative energy equipment. But the cut was not as deep as expected and stocks rebounded nicely.

• Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 8:00am.
• W.W. Grainger, Inc. (NYSE: GWW) to hold sales conference call at 8:00am.
• XM Satellite Radio Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: XMSR) and Sirius Satellite Radio, Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) to report quarterly earnings; the conference call is at 10:00am for XM and at 4:30pm for Sirius.

• Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 7:30am.
• Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE: TOL) to report preliminary Q2 results and outlook at 2pm.
• Applied Materials, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMAT) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 4:30pm.

• FCC Open Commission Meeting at 9:30am.
• SEC Open Commission Meeting at 10:00am.
• Macy's, Inc. (NYSE: M) to report Q1 earnings; conference call at 10:30am.
• Agilent Technologies, Inc. (NYSE: A) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 4:30pm.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: UBS AG, KLA-Tencor and Level 3 Comm were today's noteworthy downgrades:

• Keefe Bruyette downgraded shares of UBS (NYSE: UBS) to Underperform from Market Perform as they expect as they expect further write-downs to erase profits in 2008.
• Oppenheimer downgraded shares of KLA-Tencor (NASDAQ: KLAC) to Underperform from Perform after checks indicated Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) has chosen Applied Materials' (NASDAQ: AMAT) reticle inspection tool for its entire 32nm node after a long period of evaluation against KLA-Tencor. Oppenheimer believes this represents a $300M shift from KLA-Tencor's dominant market share in reticle inspection.
  
• Jefferies cut Level 3 Communications (NASDAQ: LVLT) to Hold from Buy as they see limited opportunity for near-term share appreciation given the company's integration challenges and the added uncertainty from recent management changes.

OTHER DOWNGRADES:

• Keefe Bruyette downgraded Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS) to Market Perform from Outperform.
  
• Kroger (NYSE: KR) was downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.
  
• Baird cut Network Appliance (NASDAQ: NTAP) to Neutral from Outperform.

Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) closed at $17.93 Friday.

AMAT is scheduled to report Q1 EPS after the market close on February 12.

Deutsche Banc says: "Expecting stronger F1Q08 results, weaker outlook." DBAB has a Hold rating and a $19 price target on AMAT.

AMAT February straddle 18 is priced at $1.10. AMAT March option implied volatility of 42 is above its 26-week average of 36 according to Track Data, suggesting larger movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

MOST NOTEWORTHY:

• Merriman upgraded Sonus Networks (NASDAQ: SONS) to Neutral from Sell following its win at BT Group (NYSE: BT) for its ASX platform, which the firm believes endorses the company's technology.
  
• Cantor upgraded Kenexa (NASDAQ: KNXA) to Buy from Hold. The firm finds the stock being 40%+ off due to the 3Q weak earnings report as quite an overreaction and believes there is more than enough upside to advise buying shares. Management announced a 2M share buyback program.
  
• Shares of Canadian Pacific (NYSE: CP) was upgraded to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer at CIBC, as they believe the strong Canadian Dollar and the delay in STB approval of the DM&E acquisition is priced into shares.
  
• Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at JP Morgan and to Buy from Hold at Citigroup; Citigroup expects capex revisions to start to reverse in mid-08 and views solar as a free option.
  
• Piper Jaffray raised its rating on Powerwave Technologies (NASDAQ: PWAV) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation and seasonally strong Q4 capex trends.

• eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Piper Jaffray.
  
• Morgan Joseph upgraded Perini (NYSE: PCR) to Buy from Hold and Shuffle Master (SHFL) to Hold from Sell.
  
• Goldman upgraded China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (NYSE: SNP) to Buy from Neutral.