"There are signs that the credit logjam that's frozen markets around the world in recent weeks may be breaking," states global expert Keith Fitz-Gerald. In his Money Map Reporter, he suggests that investors begin scaling in to new positions in Templeton Emerging Markets Fund (NYSE: EMF).
The advisor explains, "Assuming historical relationships remain true, Asian markets, followed by South American and European markets -- in that order -- have the most to gain coming out of this crisis.
"The other thing that history shows is that deep corrections tend to turn out to have been spectacular buying opportunities in retrospect, particularly when the credit markets that drive them relax. This is usually about six months prior to recognized recoveries.
"Templeton Emerging Markets Fund is trading at a 12% discount to net asset value and offers a 16.9% yield. Fully 58.2% of its assets are concentrated in and around the Asian region, which is running the highest cash reserves as a percentage of GDP on the planet.
"We plan to scale into a position in Templeton Emerging Markets Fund over the next few months. This not only keeps our overall risk down, but it helps us average in cost effectively."
Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com offers a daily look at the latest market commentary and favorite stock picks and investment ideas from the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.
Writing from Japan, while speaking at an economic conference, Mark Skousen looks to opportunities in Japan's stock market for his latest buy.
In his top notch trading service, The Hedge Fund Trader Alert, he says, "Surveying the landscape in Japan, two things are perfectly clear: the market and the currency here are both extremely cheap."
"The Nikkei 225 reached 40,000 back in 1989. Today, almost 20 years later, it is around 12,600 -- more than two-thirds lower.
"The yen also is cheap, due in part to ultra-low interest rates. Many international investors are playing a dangerous game, borrowing money in yen at low rates and lending it out in other currencies at higher rates in order to earn 'the spread.'
"This works fine until the yen begins to surge. Then there will be massive buying of the Japanese currency, as traders rush to cover their bets. That day is not here yet. But when it arrives, we may see one of the most dramatic currency surges ever witnessed in modern financial markets.
"A jump in the yen, however, would not be good for Japan's largest companies. Most of them -- such as Toyota, Honda, Sony, Canon and Mitsubishi -- are major exporters.
Will investors soon get over worries about losses from subprime mortgages? As Doug indicated this morning, the answer for now is "nope." Today overseas markets are definitely paying attention to renewed fears about credit markets. The Dow was down over 56 points yesterday and today, Asian market sectors including banking, brokerage and insurance took a plunge as well. Francis Lun with Hong Kong's Fulbright Securities told MarketWatch, "After the drop on Wall Street, people are wary about further write-downs related to subprime mortgages."
With earnings season just kicking off today with Alcoa's second quarter results after the close, should we also be bracing for worse-than-expected reports from banks and brokerages? Today hat's the sentiment in Hong Kong and other Asian markets, where the Hang Seng index fell 3.2% in overnight trading and the Nikkei lost 2.5%.
Asian regional markets were sitting on the same worries pressuring U.S. markets, according to David Cohen with Action Economics. He posited that most Asian indexes were under pressure "from the same forces weighing upon markets globally, hostage to oil prices, and fears of stagflation." This morning at least, investors are bracing for U.S. markets to get worse before they get better.
Japan's Nikkei Index, the weighted average of 225 stocks in major companies, fell for the 10th day. That has not happened since 1965.
According to the FT, "Rising fears about the impact of inflation on slowing economies took their toll on Japanese and other Asia-Pacific markets." That sounds a bit like the current trouble in the US.
A number of other indicies have had sharp declines lately. The Shanghai Composite has fallen by more than half since late last year. Rising energy and food costs in China have not helped it. Neither have concerns that a recession in the West could cut demand for its exports.
The Nikkei news says two things. The first is that the economies in other large nations may be as troubled as that in the US. Traders often look out several quarters when they make their buying or selling decisions. But, the second, more ominous sign from the Nikkei's decline is that it says that the smart money in Japan believes that the price of oil is not likely to fall. Japan is relies more on imports of crude that the US does.
The tough run for the Nikkei is not restricted to Japan. US and EU markets are likely to set records of their own, and not the kind that traders look forward to.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
"Thailand had a political crisis in 2006, when the democratically elected government was overthrown by a military coup," recalls international investing expert Mike Burnick.
"But the country is emerging from its crisis with a fresh pro-growth mandate," he notes in his Global Market Investor. Here, he looks at a closed-end fund for those seeking to play this trend.
"Thailand experienced a sharp stock market crash and 18 months of political chaos. But now, the crisis appears to have passed. In March, the Thai military stepped aside, and a newly elected government was installed in Bangkok, which looks a lot like Thailand's old government under Thaksin!
"In fact, the newly elected government chose a cabinet that is packed with allies of the former prime minister. Bangkok is also busy pursuing the same pro-growth agenda with an emphasis on tax cuts and government infrastructure spending. . . . And the plan is working.
With the growing interest in investing in China, an increasing number of advisers are spending more of their time in the region, meeting with managements and getting first-hand experience about Chinese companies.
One such adviser is Tony Sagami, editor of The Asia Stock Alert. Back from his latest visit to the region, he has added New Oriental Education (NYSE:EDU) to his portfolio.
The company helps Chinese learn English and other languages. Sagami asks, "How much do I like New Oriental? If there was only one stock that you could own, this is the one."
And while the company has just gone through what is supposed to be its slowest time of year, the adviser notes, "Somebody forgot to tell the people running EDU that business should slow down, because it is still booming."
Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.
China Life Insurance Co. (NYSE: LFC) is the favorite conservative stock for 2007 from Jim Trippon, editor of The China Stock Digest. The advisor, who maintains permanent offices in China, says, "Although the stock has performed strongly in 2006, we still see strong gains ahead.
"China Life is China's largest insurance company; it has written more than 48 million individual and group policies and has a huge sales force of 640,000 agents who operate in 9,300 field offices throughout the world's most populous country.
"China Life first caught our attention as a potentially huge growth engine in December 2005 with its announcement that it had been given the go-ahead by the China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) to set up a pension business as it moves to expand into the fast-growing corporate annuities sector.
"This is a major breakthrough in a nation of 1.3 billion prospects who can no longer rely on the government for their pensions. CIRC expects the country's corporate annuity net premiums to grow by 100 billion Yuan, or US$124 million, annually for the next several years. We expect China Life's historical statistics to move up rapidly as its large sales force is tasked to move aggressively into pension funding."
To see Jim's favorite speculation for 2007, click here.
Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.
United Overseas Bank Limited (Other OTC: UOVEY) is the top speculative idea for 2007 from Yiannis Mostrous. The global expert and editor of The Silk Road Investor -- and author of a new book by the same name -- explains, "United Overseas is a play in the positive changes taking place in Singapore, which continues to improve its image and attract the affluent from across Asia.
"United Overseas has been steadily improving operations and asset quality while expanding into Thailand and Indonesia.The bank has achieved a healthy mix of non-interest and interest-based income, with non-interest income growing strongly -- always a good thing. Its non-performing loan ratio dropped from 8.5% to 5.6% during the past year.
"Though Singaporean banks have been slow growers for sometime, improvement is visible as the economy enjoys strong growth amid a reflationary environment. As a result, loan growth could easily reach double digits next year. Banking stocks should eventually trade at a premium to the market, especially as return on equity improves through growth.
Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.
China Direct, Inc. (OTCBB: CHND) is the favorite speculative idea for 2007 from Jim Trippon. The editor of The China Stock Digest explains, "China Direct invests in companies that need a capital infusion to achieve the next level in their growth.
"Unfortunately, major Chinese banks and other large financial institutions have shunned smaller institutions and typically lend only to the country's very large cap companies. The small to mid-cap investment gap is where China Direct comes in.
"This year China Direct has invested $4 million to acquire controlling interests in five companies, including a chemical maker, a magnesium refiner, a logistics company, a toy producer, and a metals recycling firm. China Direct projects that revenues will double from 2007 to 2008 as it continues its small and mid-cap acquisition and expansion strategy.