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Nintendo leads the way as video game sales surge

Sony Corp.'s (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 woes continue, as Nintendo Wii continues to pwn the new console. April video games sales rose 20%. PlayStation 3, which was launched alongside the Wii in November, sold just 82,000 units, down from 130,000 in March. Wii sold 360,000 units in the U.S., up from 259,000 in March.

Here's what's most telling: PlayStation 2, which was launched seven years ago outsold the PlayStation 3. Industry observers wondered whether PlayStation 3's price point was prohibitively high, and the continued interest in PS2 indicates that it probably was: Why buy PS2 rather than PS3 if not because of money? Sony will probably cut the price of the new system in time for the holiday season, and hope to recoup some of its investment on software sales.

Nintendo is also beating Sony as a game developer, scoring the top 4 biggest hits of the month. Activision Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) also had a good month.

If you're interested in buying stocks to capitalize on the upcoming sales of games for the next-gen console, here are some other options: Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS), THQ Inc. (NASDAQ: THQI), Take-Two Interactive Software (NASDAQ: TTWO), and Atari Inc. (NASDAQ: ATAR).

Stupid quote of the week: DaimlerChrysler's poor planning

In 2006, Chrysler (NYSE: DCX) lost $1.5 billion as the company failed to adapt to changing trends in the auto industry, focusing on minivans, pickups, and sport utility vehicles. By way of explanation, Chairman Dieter Zetsche offered this, which is probably one of the dumbest quotes I've seen so far in 2007:

"The crucial factor was the unforeseeable shift in demand to smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles, which was triggered by increased gas prices in the U.S." (emphasis added)

Wow. What's next? Will people continue to buy dog food that kills their pets? Will Atari explain the declining sales of the Atari 2600 by saying that "the crucial factor was an unforeseeable shift toward higher quality, more enjoyable video games"?

All I can say is that if the chairman of an automobile manufacturer considers the shift toward smaller cars in light of rising gas prices as unforeseeable, the company probably needs new leadership.

On April 5th, Kirk Kerkorian offered $4.58 billion for the company, so maybe change is on the way.

Wii leads the pack; PlayStation 3 lags

The results for video game console sales for February are in:

  • 335,000 Nintendo Wiis
  • 228,000 Xbox 360s
  • 127,000 Sony PlayStation 3s

This means that 48.5% of the new video game systems sold in February were Nintendo Wiis. That's a big ouch for Sony, whose high-tech new system appears to be struggling for consumer acceptance with Nintendo's less-tech, but more fun, Wii. Interestingly, Sony's PlayStation 2 sold 95,000 units because of its recently reduced price of $129. The strong sales there indicate that the PlayStation 3's launch price of more than $500 was prohibitvely high, and that PlayStation customers are happy to just buy the old system.

In some ways, the slow sales of the PlayStation 3 appear to be a flashback to the launch of the 3DO in 1993. While the unit was way ahead of its time technologically (it was among the first to offer CDs instead of cartridges), its high price point (among other factors) put it at a competitive disadvantage compared to simpler, less expensive systems like Super Nintendo and Sega Genesis.

Continue reading Wii leads the pack; PlayStation 3 lags

Earnings preview on Electronic Arts

Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:ERTS) reports earnings today after the close of the market. Consensus estimates are $0.02 for EPS and $672.25 million in revenues. In August the company forecast a loss of -$0.22 to -$0.28 after items and a break-even result before items on revenues of $635 million to $685 million.

This will essentially be the second throw-away quarter for EA as the bulk of the business is centered around the fourth quarter and first quarter of the calendar. Its updated "Madden Football" game posted sales of more than $100 million its first week out of the chute in August.

So this is the throw-away quarter, and that is a given. Now what we have to worry about is the excessively wide range of estimates that exists for the coming quarter. The street is looking for approximately $0.57 EPS and $1.2 Billion, but the lower and higher ranges are apparently $0.40-0.72 and $1.15B to $1.3B. There is also a discrepancy of consensus estimates from service to service. That means that with the stock back up at the highs, you might have to still worry even if they guide slightly up from mid-points. The other worry is that the company has a history of reporting sporadic results and even more sporadic reactions in stock prices.

With the large Madden numbers you would expect that the revenues were attainable. But in this current quarter we get the release of the two new systems going after Xbox 360's lead. We have the Nintendo Wii and the Sony PS3 coming out within days of each other later this month. Both consoles have sold out as far as pre-orders at GameStop and indications seem to suggest some of the same at Best Buy. EA has roughly 30 games under development as of last month. This is actually the second quarter that JamDat has been a subsidiary of the company for mobile operations, so we may have a better grasp of the mobile gaming segment ahead.


Continue reading Earnings preview on Electronic Arts

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Last updated: July 25, 2008: 06:42 PM

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