There has been much fear mongering in Washington over the last year as the financial crisis has built to a boil. But despite the most recent efforts to scare Congress and the American people into action, there has been very little light shed on some basic questions.
And I believe that before another penny of American taxpayers money is spent, our leaders need to spend more time explaining what is going on and why change is required. What we are facing is a crisis of confidence -- we are witnessing the erosion of trust in our leaders and our financial system.
People no longer believe our leaders have our best interests at heart. In the wake of the Auction Rate Securities scandal, people doubt the basic fairness of our system. People do not know the details of their accounts -- for instance few people have read the prospectus of their money market funds. And there is a lack of powerful ideas to sustain people's belief in the system.
Historians are likely to look back on this week as one of the most significant in American economic history. This was the week that the government let Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LEH) fail -- a record $639 billion bankruptcy, lent $85 billion to keep American International Group (NYSE: AIG) from collapsing, and pumped $300 billion into global financial markets to keep them from seizing up. But that turned out not to be enough to keep the markets afloat -- for that Hank Paulson needed the ultimate bailout.
While I don't remember much of the American History I studied in high school, one thing sticks with me today. It always seems that it takes a major crisis to get America to make big changes. It is never possible for leaders to foresee problems and take action to avert them before they turn catastrophic. The averting catastrophe approach always struck me as far smarter than the crisis approach. However, it seems that lawmakers need tangible evidence of prior bad outcomes to make the case that the status quo is deeply flawed and must change.
While he had already loosened up $800 billion in taxpayer money by Wednesday, Paulson needed an even scarier story to get Washington to agree to an additional $500 billion to create an agency to buy illiquid assets from financial institutions. What exactly did he tell Congress and the president to scare them into agreeing to this plan? AP suggests that he described evidence of the global financial market ceasing to function and painted a frightening picture of the economic and political chaos that would ensue if that functioning ceased for an extended period of time.
DealBook reports that Fidelity Investments has agreed to buy back $300 million worth of auction-rate securities (ARS). This settlement is a first in the sense that the previous redeemers were ARS issuers. Fidelity is considered to be "downstream" from the issuers. And its decision to settle puts pressure on other downstream participants such as Oppenheimer and Raymond James.
Exactly what has Fidelity agreed to do? "According to the terms of the deal, the first struck with a 'downstream' seller of these securities, Fidelity will not pay a fine. The firm will buy back auction-rate securities from individuals, charities and institutional investors alike, making no distinction among investor classes, as previous settlements with other firms have," DealBook writes.
Of the $330 billion in ARS that were issued, only 10% have been redeemed so far -- "the big banks have repurchased more than $35 billion of the securities and paid more than $360 million in fines," according to DealBook. I am impressed that regulators are continuing to push hard to get ARS issuers to take care of these investors given all the distraction from the weekly collapse of one major financial institution after another.
The New York Times reports that two Credit Suisse brokers took Auction Rate Securities (ARS) fraud to a new level. They fabricated an ARS-issuing agency -- a made up student loan securitizer -- as they sold investors their most toxic Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) backed by subprime mortgages and mobile home loans. Their deception is not new in concept -- evidence of ARS fraud has already emerged -- but the scope of the fraud is noteworthy.
Since I first began writing about the $330 billion ARS market -- long-term securities whose rates were reset in weekly auctions until they failed -- 6,162 comments have appeared from people trying to get their money back. And many of the issuers have announced settlements with authorities because investigators have found evidence that many of them were actively trying to dump the ARS from their own books into those of unsuspecting individual investors by telling them the ARS were safe and offered slightly higher-than-money-market yields.
But this Credit Suisse fraud reaches a different level. According to the Times, "Eric Butler, [who] sold customers some of the most toxic investments of the subprime age - [CDOs] - in what federal prosecutors characterize as a $1 billion bait-and-switch -- told those investors that they were getting "securities [that] were as safe as cash." The Times wrote that Butler "claimed, [that] the outfit that issued them, Glacier Education Loan, bought student loans guaranteed by the federal government. The problem: there is no such thing as Glacier Education Loan."
Now eight large brokerage firms have settled with Auction Rate Securities (ARS) investors. This afternoon Bloomberg News reports Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and Deutsche Bank settled with state regulators. Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER) announced another prong of its settlement earlier in the day.
What are the terms of the settlement for the latest two? Bloomberg writes that "Goldman will buy back $1.5 billion of the securities and pay a $22.5 million fine. Deutsche Bank will redeem $1 billion of debt and was fined $15 million." In addition to the rogues gallery of big ARS issuers who have yet to settle, investigators are targeting medium-sized brokers -- Charles Schwab (NYSE: SCHW), Fidelity Investments and E*Trade Financial Corp. (NYSE: ETFC).
This leaves major ARS issuers lagging behind their peers. Here are three holdouts (with their 2007 municipal ARS issuance in parentheses):
Bloomberg News reports that Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER) has extended its Auction Rate Securities (ARS) redemption offer in response to what I thought was pressure from New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo who threatened to take Merrill to court. But what is interesting is that Massachusetts Secretary of State William Galvin was the one who announced the settlement.
While the politics of this intrigue me, those who held Merrill ARSs (pun intended) care about the terms of the settlement. Bloomberg reports that Merrill "will begin the buyback on October 15 for individuals, nonprofits and small business with $3 million or less on deposit. Redemptions for clients with $100 million or less start on January 15." This Merrill deal adds to the one it announced on August 7 -- a voluntary buyback of $10 billion worth of ARS. Merrill has a total of "30,000 clients who held an estimated $12 billion" according to Bloomberg.
This leaves many major ARS issuers lagging behind their peers. Here are four holdouts (with their 2007 municipal ARS issuance in parentheses):
In December, 2002, ten of the most prominent brokerage firms in the country agreed to a massive settlement. The charges involved well-documented claims that analyst reports issued by these firms were deceptive. The firms sold out their retail clients to curry favor with their underwriting clients.
The industry unleashed a massive PR campaign. It convinced you that it saw the error of its ways. They had "reformed." You could trust them again with your hard earned assets.
And you did. Money flowed back in the coffers of these firms and others.
The Wall Street Journal reports that Wachovia Corporation (NYSE: WB) is now the sixth major Auction Rate Securities (ARS) issuer to agree to buy back these long-term securities whose interest rates formerly reset in weekly auctions -- until those auctions failed in February. There seems to be a difference of opinion -- between New York's attorney general and the SEC and Missouri -- regarding the terms of Wachovia's deal.
Andrew Cuomo of New York thinks Wachovia will redeem $8 billion worth of ARS in November and will pay a $50 million fine. The SEC and Missouri Secretary of State Robin Carnahan said that Wachovia will buy back $5.7 billion by November 28th. The SEC said Wachovia will buy back an additional $3.1 billion in ARS in June 2009 according to the Journal. Wachovia seems to be leaning more to the two-step process outlined by Carnhan and the SEC.
Meanwhile, today's announcement leaves unredeemed the customers from the following top 10 municipal ARS issuers (their 2007 municipal ARS totals are in parentheses):
Bloomberg News reports that two more big banks -- JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) have made offers of $7 billion to 30,000 holders of Auction Rate Securities (ARS) -- those long-term securities whose yields reset in weekly auctions until the auctions failed this February. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley also agreed to $60 million worth of fines. This brings to five the number of large firms that have settled so far. The Wall Street Journal reports that of the big firms that have yet to settle, Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) is proving to be among the most unhelpful to its clients.
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal's James Stewart, who first got me writing about the ARS catastrophe, has finally broken his silence. And he seems to think that the ARS mess is much worse than he originally thought back in February. Stewart was shocked that brokers were unloading this toxic waste on customers so they could get it off of their books and out of the accounts of their executives. Stewart's reaction struck me as surprisingly naive -- particularly considering his long track record of reporting on Wall Street misdeeds.
Nevertheless, the problems with the frozen ARS continue to stress out investors who fell victim to Wall Street's chicanery. Among the top 10 municipal ARS issuers, the following have yet to offer any restitution to ARS holders (the value of their 2007 ARS issuance is in parentheses):
Bloomberg News reports that banks' subprime write-downs have hit $500 billion. The last time I checked, that figure was $400 billion. Bloomberg reports that New York University economist Nouriel Roubini forecasts such losses will ultimately total $2 trillion. I wonder if he would revise his estimate upwards.
Recently banks have been taking write-downs for their Auction Rate Securities (ARS). Bloomberg reports about $1.9 billion has been set aside so far to cover ARS losses. It notes that UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) set aside $900 million to cover potential losses and Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) and Wachovia (NYSE: WB) each estimate that their ARS buybacks will cost $500 million.
Write-downs have been going hand in hand with capital raising. But banks and brokers have not been able to raise enough capital to offset the losses. Bloomberg calculates that they've raised "$353 billion of capital to cope with the write-downs. The gap between the losses and capital infusions, which stands at $148 billion, has regularly narrowed to about $80 billion as capital raising follows write-down announcements."
Can banks and brokerages raise another $1.7 trillion to keep up with the write-downs that Roubini forecasts? I sincerely doubt it.
CNNMoney notes that Morgan Stanley said it would offer to repurchase all ARS "held by individuals, charities and small and medium-sized business with accounts of $10 million or less at the bank." Morgan Stanley will begin to start buying back $4.5 billion worth of ARS on September 30th and will "make its best effort to provide liquidity solutions" for institutional investors by the end of 2009. But New York attorney general Andrew Cuomo is not satisfied with Morgan Stanley's proposal.
Meanwhile, the list of big ARS issuers that have not settled grows shorter. Here are six holdouts (with their 2007 municipal ARS issuance in parentheses):
Barron's (subscription required) reports that the news this week about Auction Rate Securities (ARS) leaves $220 billion worth of the $330 billion market still frozen. Those among the two-thirds of ARS holders who have not gotten any good news must have mixed feelings -- happy that some of their colleagues have the potential for relief, but wondering when they will get their money back.
The ARS market is complicated because the securities were issued in many different forms. Barron's reports that these issuers include "municipalities, closed-end funds, student-loan trusts and collateralized debt obligations [CDOs]." Many of these issuers have announced little, if any relief for those frozen in ARS hell. For example:
Municipal ARS market has fallen 40% from $175 billion to $105 billion since the beginning of 2008 and only "5% to 8% of muni auctions are proceeding -- at interest rates of 8% to 15%."
Closed-end funds have reduced the amount of ARS outstanding by 37% from $64 billion to $40 billion. For example, Nuveen's closed-end funds sold $500 million of variable-rate demand-preferred shares (VRDPs) last week to replace the same amount of ARS. (VRDPs' interest rates reset in auctions but have a put option that allows an investor to sell the VRDP to the bank running the auction if it fails). Barron's thinks that if the VRDP market functions, "more than 50% of closed-end-fund ARS could be redeemed" by the end of 2008.
After nearly six months of stalemate, things are finally starting to happen for holders of Auction Rate Securities (ARS) -- the $330 billion of long-term debt whose yield used to reset in weekly auctions. This morning, The Boston Globe reports that UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) is poised to announce that it will redeem $19.4 billion worth of ARS and pay $150 million in fines, split between Massachusetts and New York. UBS follows Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) and Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER), which yesterday announced plans to redeem over $17 billion worth of ARS.
Why should you care? If you have money frozen in these securities, the reason is obvious. If not, what's happening here suggests three lessons for investors:
Don't buy without knowing. Before you buy anything a broker is trying to sell you, read the prospectus, find out how the broker will be compensated for the sale, and if you don't understand what you're buying, don't buy it. Many people bought based on broker pitches that ARSs were cash equivalents, highly liquid, and yielded slightly more than money market funds. It turns out that ARS auctions started failing publicly last September.
If your money becomes illiquid, make alot of noise. ARS investors contacted government officials and the media in an organized way. The public attention led to investigations by legal officials. That attention uncovered UBS e-mails demonstrating that brokerage firms decided to dump the toxic waste from their own books to the accounts of their individual customers -- even as their executives dumped the securities from their own portfolios.
Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER) announced that it would follow Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) in redeeming its Auction Rate Securities (ARS). Unlike Citi -- which plans to redeem $7 billion worth of ARS by November -- Merrill will take its sweet time. According to MarketWatch, from January 15, 2009, and through January 15, 2010, Merrill will "offer to buy at par" $10 billion worth of ARS it sold to 30,000 retail clients.
This is good news and it should get the ball rolling. But there are still at least $300 billion ARS which are not yet redeemed. The list of issuers reads like a who's who of the banking world. For instance, the Wall Street Journal reports that the top 10 municipal ARS issuers at the end of 2007 were as follows:
The Washington Post reports that Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) has agreed to buy back $7 billion worth of Auction Rate Securities (ARS) it sold to its clients. Citi will also pay a $100 million civil fine. This is a great move for individuals and companies that bought this toxic waste. The question is -- will the rest of the $330 billion ARS industry follow Citi's lead?
Citi will buy back the debt from 40,000 customers around the U.S. by November 5. And the $100 million fine will be split -- $50 million to New York and $50 million to the North American Securities Administrators Association. Cuomo had accused Citi of "wrongly telling customers that auction-rate debt was safe, liquid and the equivalent of cash." It looks like current CEO Vikram Pandit wanted to clear the decks of a problem he inherited and in so doing help to clear Citi's name.
But the question is whether Cuomo -- having achieved this considerable victory for defrauded ARS customers -- will have the clout to clear the rest of the $330 billion worth of ARSs that were frozen. There are many other firms -- including Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER) and UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) which have their own frozen ARS problems. And until all of these firms make their investors whole, a dark cloud will hang over their reputations.
This cloud could seriously damage their future prospects when the industry recovers a few years hence. The sooner the rest of the industry follows Citi's lead, the better.
Historians are likely to look back on this week as one of the most significant in American economic history. This was the week that the government let 
The 
Now eight large brokerage firms have settled with Auction Rate Securities (ARS) investors. This afternoon 
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In December, 2002, ten of the most prominent brokerage firms in the country agreed to a massive settlement. The charges involved well-documented claims that analyst reports issued by these firms were deceptive. The firms sold out their retail clients to curry favor with their underwriting clients.
The 
After nearly six months of stalemate, things are finally starting to happen for holders of Auction Rate Securities (ARS) -- the $330 billion of long-term debt whose yield used to reset in weekly auctions. This morning, 
Big 3 CEOs drive to Washington to suck up to Congress
GM and Ford ready weak pitches for taxpayer bucks
Cramer on BloggingStocks: A troika of opportunity and trouble 
