Now eight large brokerage firms have settled with Auction Rate Securities (ARS) investors. This afternoon Bloomberg News reports Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and Deutsche Bank settled with state regulators. Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER) announced another prong of its settlement earlier in the day.
What are the terms of the settlement for the latest two? Bloomberg writes that "Goldman will buy back $1.5 billion of the securities and pay a $22.5 million fine. Deutsche Bank will redeem $1 billion of debt and was fined $15 million." In addition to the rogues gallery of big ARS issuers who have yet to settle, investigators are targeting medium-sized brokers -- Charles Schwab (NYSE: SCHW), Fidelity Investments and E*Trade Financial Corp. (NYSE: ETFC).
This leaves major ARS issuers lagging behind their peers. Here are three holdouts (with their 2007 municipal ARS issuance in parentheses):
Bloomberg News reports that banks' subprime write-downs have hit $500 billion. The last time I checked, that figure was $400 billion. Bloomberg reports that New York University economist Nouriel Roubini forecasts such losses will ultimately total $2 trillion. I wonder if he would revise his estimate upwards.
Recently banks have been taking write-downs for their Auction Rate Securities (ARS). Bloomberg reports about $1.9 billion has been set aside so far to cover ARS losses. It notes that UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) set aside $900 million to cover potential losses and Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) and Wachovia (NYSE: WB) each estimate that their ARS buybacks will cost $500 million.
Write-downs have been going hand in hand with capital raising. But banks and brokers have not been able to raise enough capital to offset the losses. Bloomberg calculates that they've raised "$353 billion of capital to cope with the write-downs. The gap between the losses and capital infusions, which stands at $148 billion, has regularly narrowed to about $80 billion as capital raising follows write-down announcements."
Can banks and brokerages raise another $1.7 trillion to keep up with the write-downs that Roubini forecasts? I sincerely doubt it.
Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER) announced that it would follow Citigroup, Inc. (NYSE: C) in redeeming its Auction Rate Securities (ARS). Unlike Citi -- which plans to redeem $7 billion worth of ARS by November -- Merrill will take its sweet time. According to MarketWatch, from January 15, 2009, and through January 15, 2010, Merrill will "offer to buy at par" $10 billion worth of ARS it sold to 30,000 retail clients.
This is good news and it should get the ball rolling. But there are still at least $300 billion ARS which are not yet redeemed. The list of issuers reads like a who's who of the banking world. For instance, the Wall Street Journal reports that the top 10 municipal ARS issuers at the end of 2007 were as follows:
Citigroup (NYSE: C) is in talks with federal and New York State authorities to settle charges that it misrepresented the liquidity of the auction-rate securities that it sold to clients. The financial instruments were presented as being nearly as liquid as cash, but when the market in the paper locked up a year ago, owners of the securities could not sell them.
According toThe Wall Street Journal, Citi conversations with regulators "to resolve allegations of wrongdoing in the auction-rate-securities market could result in its buying back several billion dollars of the illiquid securities from investors and paying a sizable fine."
Leaving Citi aside, banks and brokerage houses could face another substantial series of write-offs if the industry decides to come clean on the auction rate mess. The market totaled about $360 billion. While the paper is not worthless, it may bring only 60% of its face value. The leaves a hole of nearly $100 billion.
Financial companies may not have a choice beyond settling. It appears that both personal investors and corporations were told that they could get the money out of auction rate securities with ease. When banks decided to no longer take on the risk of trading the paper, most of the bonds could not be sold at all.
Investors at banks and brokerage houses should get ready for a new round of write-offs large enough to take their shares back to their recent lows.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
BusinessWeek reports that Wall Street has its eye on a new pot of cash -- your pension. And it's a mighty big pot -- $2.3 trillion. But Wall Street is not looking at the entire pension industry, just a $500 billion portion known as "frozen plans" that are closed to new employees and whose benefits are capped. McKinsey forecasts that frozen plans will triple to a hefty $1.5 trillion by 2013.
As usual, Wall Street's plan to buy these frozen pensions will line its own pockets and it will help companies as well. For example, if Wall Street charged a 2% management fee, that alone would generate $30 billion in revenues by 2013 if it bought all the frozen plans, but that fee income is probably the tip of the iceberg.
Companies are eager to dump their frozen pension plans. Why? These limping plans weigh down corporate balance sheet and new accounting rules will require companies to mark the value of their pension assets to market each quarter. In a down market, that could wipe out a company's operating profits.
After reading an interview in the New York Times with Merrill Lynch & Co. (NYSE: MER) CEO John Thain, I began to wonder whether Wall Street, as it currently exists, needs to change.
What's wrong with Wall Street? Here are five things:
Rewards employees, not shareholders - It pays as much as 76% of its revenues to the people who work there (e.g., in 2006 Merrill paid $17 billion in compensation and its revenue totaled $22.4 billion). That pay is linked to revenue, not how much money their deals make for customers. This encourages them to close big deals fast rather than paying attention to quality.
Puts its own interests ahead of its clients' - One need look no further than how firms pushed their toxic Auction Rate Securities (ARS) off their books and into the accounts of individual investors.
Absorbs talent that could solve more important problems - That money sucks up the world's brightest minds. Those MIT PhDs could have been inventing ways to lessen our dependence on oil and gas instead of Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs).
The Washington Times reports that Phil Gramm, UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) vice chairman and senior economic advisor to John McCain (R.-AZ), thinks we're a nation of whiners. Gramm's UBS is a leader on three important fronts in the effort to destroy the U.S. economy: the $1.3 trillion subprime mortgage catastrophe, the $330 billion Auction Rate Securities (ARS) freeze, and a tax evasion scheme of unknown magnitude.
The Washington Times quotes Gramm as saying: "We have sort of become a nation of whiners. You just hear this constant whining." UBS probably pays Gramm well for his services so I can see where he's coming from. He is making money and he's the only one who matters. But if you think he is helping McCain, think about these things:
The Wall Street Journal reports that the $330 billion auction rate securities (ARS) scandal, which since February has frozen the funds of investors who thought they were getting a low risk place to park their cash, has finally generated its first criminal probe. The charge is that two Credit Suisse brokers lied "to investors about how they placed their money into short-term securities."
I have been following the ARS scandal since February when I first became aware of the situation. Since then, my post has generated 5,036 comments from people whose money has been frozen thanks to the collapse of the weekly auctions that were intended to set the yields on these municipal bonds. These commenters are trying to team up to figure out how best to get back their money.
The Journal reports that the Justice Department's U.S. attorney's office for New York's Eastern District, represents the first known criminal matter stemming from the crumbling ARS market. Up until then, the lawsuits were of a civil nature -- seeking class-action status and more than 80 individual arbitration claims. But a criminal probe based on lying could result in cash damages and jail terms for these brokers.
A number of corporations bought auction rate securities with their excess cash. They believed that since the instruments offered better yield than many market funds, they would be good for balance sheet management. They also thought that since auction-rate paper had been liquid and widely traded since 1985 that moving in and out of the market would be easy.
It was easy until it wasn't.
The investment banks and money center banks which made the market in these instruments pulled out at the beginning of the credit crisis. They did not want to keep risking their own capital to buy the paper and hold it to keep the market trading. Traditionally what was not bought at one auction was picked up by banks and held until the next round of trading. In essence, large financial firms kept the market trading by underwriting the system in exchange for large commissions.
Bloomberg News reports that 10 of the biggest names in investment banking are blocking investors from getting their hands on their share of the $330 billion Auction Rate Securities (ARS) that they were told was as safe as a money market fund.
I first posted about this back in February and now it has 4,325 comments from people trying to get at their money. Bloomberg quotes one victim of frozen ARS syndrome: Franklin Biddar, a 65-year old real estate investor who can't get his $100,000. "I can't do anything," said Biddar, who was so eager to unlock his money that he was willing to accept 11 percent less than what he paid for the securities. "Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) got me into these securities that are supposed to be as safe as a money market, and now they won't get me out."
Here's a list of the banks involved in this money blocking operation and the volume of municipal ARSs they issued between 2001 and 2007:
Now eight large brokerage firms have settled with Auction Rate Securities (ARS) investors. This afternoon Bloomberg News reports Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) and Deutsche Bank settled with state regulators. Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER) announced another prong of its settlement earlier in the day.
A number of corporations bought auction rate securities with their excess cash. They believed that since the instruments offered better yield than many market funds, they would be good for balance sheet management. They also thought that since auction-rate paper had been liquid and widely traded since 1985 that moving in and out of the market would be easy.
Big 3 CEOs drive to Washington to suck up to Congress
GM and Ford ready weak pitches for taxpayer bucks
Cramer on BloggingStocks: A troika of opportunity and trouble 
