The "cash for clunkers" program, once thought to be a minor, symbolic effort to stimulate the U.S. economy, actually may end up being substantive.

The program, which is designed to give rebates to enable citizens to trade in older vehicles for more fuel-efficient models, thus stimulating auto sales and the economy, ran out of its limited $1 billion allocation Congress approved earlier this year. So the U.S. House moved quickly last Friday to approve an additional $2 billion for the popular plan. Look for the Senate to follow, although the new proposal may be modified.

This morning, Goldman Sachs felt it prudent to up its view of the U.S. auto sector to Attractive from Neutral. The brokerage stated that it would use any current weakness as an opportunity to build positions. If, like me, you are questioning Goldman's strategy, the firm explained, "Despite the significant rally in auto shares since the February lows, we think we are still in the middle phase of a cyclical rebound in the auto sector."

In its note to clients, Goldman Sachs predicted, "improved affordability, improving confidence and significant pent-up demand as likely to offset the impact from gas prices and deliver significantly more upside in the space as auto sales gain momentum."

Analyst upgrades:

• Merriman upgraded Dendreon (NASDAQ: DNDN) to Buy from Neutral on expectations shares will react positively to the full IMPACT data release on April 28. The firm thinks Provenge could represent the first cancer immunotherapy approved in the U.S. and raised its valuation range on the stock to $33-$34 from $18-$19.
• Piper Jaffray upgraded Andersons (NASDAQ: ANDE) as it believes the valuation is attractive, investor expectations are low, and the company's fertilizer and rail segments could recovery in FY10. The firm has a $19 target on shares. Goldman upgraded the auto sector to Neutral from Cautious and added Ford (NYSE: F) to its Conviction Buy list. The analyst does not believe Ford will have to declare bankruptcy and sees the company benefiting from Chrysler share declines and GM's (NYSE: GM) reduced product offerings. Ford's price target is $6
• Banc of America/Merrill upgraded U.S. Airways (NYSE: LCC) to Buy from Underperform.
• Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM) was upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley.
• Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) was raised to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan.

The US markets did have a furious rally, rising 11% on major indexes. Overnight, Japan's Nikkei was up over 14%. The move to put money into banks and credit markets appears to be working.

But, don't forget the recession, which many economists see lasting longer than any downturn since 1974. Unemployment went to nearly 9% then. That is about 50% higher than the current 6.1% rate.

Yesterday, General Motors Corporation (NYSE:GM) said it would cut production more. Who would be surprised if the auto industry cut more jobs? The financial sector has lost tens of thousand of jobs, and as bank mergers go through, that is likely to go up sharply.

If there is on element which could pull the stock market back down, it is the realization that the economy is getting much, much worse and that corporate earnings will suffer accordingly.

A new wave of data about the economy will be coming soon. According to The Wall Street Journal, "The biggest data point is: the Census Bureau's retail sales report for September, on Wednesday. Economists expect sales tumbled for the third straight month, led by abysmal auto sales."

Investors who pour their money back into the market now, do so at their own peril. Don't forget the recession.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Detroit's Big Three, General Motors (NYSE: GM), Ford (NYSE: F) and Chrysler have often been criticized for their bureaucracy, slow decision making, and, at times, outright inertia...even when conditions required bold, decisive action.

There's the joke about the five General Motors executives that go on a camping trip in the Great Midwest. Suddenly, they spot a bear 600 feet away and charging toward where they're seated at the camp site.

Each executive has a rifle and is ready to shoot the bear to defend the campers, and the senior executive says: "Allright, Executives, ready, aim, aim, aim, aim, aim, aim, aim, aim, aim..."

Detroit lost control of its own market last month, as domestic market share fell below 50 percent for the first time in history, and they have no one to blame but themselves. According to USA Today, Paul Ballew, executive director of market and industry analysis at General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) said: "We are not going to cede market share to the competition." What Ballew failed to admit was the fact that they already have, and it's been going on for years.

Foreign automakers have seized the opportunity to take market share during the summer by offering tons of rebates, with Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE: TM) offering a record number of incentives, according to Edmunds.com. Despite the push, overall auto sales last month were down 12.3 percent compared to July 2006. Excluding Nissan Motor Co., Ltd.(NASDAQ: NSANY), BMW and Kia, every major automaker posted a decline in U.S. sales.

Industry experts cited months of higher-than-average gas prices, as well as the problems in the housing market, for soft sales. "Experts" failed to mention that most foreign cars provide tons of incentives, better miles per gallon and have a better reputation than American cars.

With the weakness in the overall industry last month, automakers could start to develop some creative and aggressive marketing ploys, Jesse Toprak, an analyst at Edmunds.com, told USA Today. The real question is will U.S. companies ever realize they need to develop autos that have better mileage, and steer away from building gigantic gas guzzling SUVs? With House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Massachusetts Rep. Ed Markey abandoning their push (subscription required) for an increase in fuel-economy standards, Detroit lacks any reason to even consider it.