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General Motors may decide the fate of Opel

The General Motors' board is starting its two-day meeting today, and it is believed that the company is going to decide what will happen to the German Opel automobile unit. There are other topics to be discussed, including a new marketing campaign and preparation for a public offering of stock so the automaker can repay the U.S. taxpayers.

Nevertheless, the major news will be the company's decision about Opel -- what should General Motors do? Is it smart for the company to give up a portion of its market share in Europe in order to stabilize American sales? Reuters examined several scenarios General Motors might face.

Continue reading General Motors may decide the fate of Opel

Collectible Investments: U.S. auto stock certificates

Can investing and collecting go hand-in-hand? Yes -- especially if you are collecting coins, stock certificates, bank notes, or other rare items of value. Larry Schutts, an expert in investment-related collectibles, will periodically review items of interest from his collection and answer your questions here.

The automobile has had a profound influence on the evolution of American culture. Our freedom to move from place to place in private vehicles is a primary factor in determining where we live, the way we work, and how we socialize. The development of the automotive industry followed the usual pattern. Initial efforts were privately funded, but subsequent improvements touched every aspect of the manufacturing process and ultimately required more sophisticated levels of financing. That led to a wide variety of corporate stock offerings. The old certificates are generally available at reasonable prices and are particular collector favorites. The appreciation levels associated with many of them makes them popular with the investment crowd, too. Compare twelve-year price gains of the specimens discussed below with advances in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+10%) and the S&P 500 Index (+2%) over the same period.

Continue reading Collectible Investments: U.S. auto stock certificates

Americans driving less: Will we stay in 'shock' state?

Just a few weeks ago we were wondering whether falling gas prices meant that Americans would be driving more. The data says: no. (Although the data is, admittedly, nearly two months delayed.) Both gasoline consumption and vehicles miles travelled have fallen every month over the past several months; the miles travelled figure is down 11 months in a row and 4.4% in September.

In the Wall Street Journal, Joseph B. White points out how the cycle is so far following that of the late 1970s and early 80s; gas gets expensive, Americans embrace high-mileage vehicles, less driving, and start thinking about alternative energy sources; demand falls and prices go back down; and then Americans return to their old ways. And complicating this situation is that gas tax revenue goes down when gas consumption goes down; so infrastructure funds dry up. Paradoxically, transportation officials are stuck in the not-so-virtuous cycle: if they encourage behavior that's good for the planet, they'll reduce their income and roads will suffer.

White asks, will we be headed straight back to "trance" state? Will automakers, having embraced development of electric-powered vehicles and other green options, give up in the face of the reality that it's just as cheap to drive a guzzler? Will Americans remember how much they loved their Sunday afternoon drives in the Excursion? Either way, the fallout is complicated.

I really believe that Americans will stay in the shock state. Many of my friends have made significant investment in the low-car lifestyle, buying family bikes and developing new routines around energy conservation. This time, it's not really about the money; I started my car-free lifestyle before prices started rising and the consensus seems to be that we're doing it for the health of the planet and our own health; those values are not to be unpacked for short-term gain. I believe in (some of) the American people. Now our government will have the hard choice of whether to raise gas taxes or find another way to fund the infrastructure shortfall.

Harley-Davidson: Avoid for now

Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) did not have a great third quarter. If you check out the motorcycle-maker's press release, you'll see that management puts all the bad data right in the lead paragraph, with no spin whatsoever. Revenues: down almost 8% to $1.4 billion. Net income on a dollar basis: down 37% to about $167 million. The bottom line on a diluted per-share basis: down close to 34%, coming in at $0.71. Down, down, down.

And is it surprising? No. Consumers aren't really looking for that second chopper these days, I don't think. Although Harley-Davidson is built to leverage the midlife crisis that many men go through when they reach middle age, I doubt that the crisis many middle-aged men are going through currently is purely life-related. I'd be willing to bet it is a crisis based on a hellishly large loss of confidence in the security of their golden years fueled by the declining total value of their retirement accounts. In a world where companies like Ford (NYSE: F) and General Motors (NYSE: GM) are having a hard time moving inventory, you can bet that it's not a walk in the park for a manufacturer of motorcycles.

Continue reading Harley-Davidson: Avoid for now

Even Toyota (TM) is going to struggle

Well, I can't predict when the market will turn, or when Toyota's (NYSE: TM) stock will once again be in favor, but I can tell you that I won't be buying its shares here. According to this article, Toyota may not do as well as it planned in terms of sales in 2008 in the U.S. market. The company told investors that year-over-year growth in the number of cars sold is now in question. In 2007, Toyota moved 2.62 million automobiles in the U.S., and for 2008, Toyota wanted to sell 2.64 million cars.

I probably don't need to say it, but I will: considering the negative trends in oil futures, gas prices, consumer confidence, inflation, recession potential, and the housing industry, the fact that the stocks of Toyota, General Motors (NYSE: GM), and Ford (NYSE: F) are having a really tough time right now is not surprising. Toyota's stock closed down 2% on the news of the sales struggle at the end of Tuesday's trading session. That's not a particularly horrible downward move, and the stock is still a few bucks above its 52-week low, but I think there's a chance the stock will take out that low at some point.

Investing in the auto industry might be a dicey move here. Sure, you could pick up some bounces, but being early in this space could prove depressing for even the heartiest investor. Auto sales might get worse before they get better (they're pretty bad now as it is), so I'll stay away from Toyota and this sector.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned here; positions can change at any time.

CarMax (KMX) profits plunge 55%, shares plunge 16%

CarMax Inc. (NYSE: KMX) is getting squeezed by its own rising cost of borrowing money to finance consumer vehicle purchases, weakening consumer demand spreading across the board, declining customer traffic into sales locations, lower gross profit margins per vehicle, and rapidly accelerating declines in the resale prices of trucks, SUVs and other gas hogs already parked on its lots. All these factors mean that CarMax 1Q FY2009 EPS dropped to $0.13, down 55% from 1Q FY2008.

Don't look for improvement in any external factors in the near future. Nevertheless, CarMax senior management has decided to continue with its aggressive expansion program in order to gain market share across the country. Thus far, CarMax has opened six new used car superstores in 2008 with plans to open eight more. The company is also testing a program to centralize its appraisal and car buying programs into five car-buying centers spread throughout the country. CarMax hopes to obtain more of its used vehicles for resale directly from consumers rather than wholesale auto auctions. The profit margin is higher for CarMax on vehicles obtained directly from consumers.

CEO Tom Folliard has suspended guidance for the rest of FY2009 given so many broad-based economic uncertainties, including continued uncertainty in the subprime lending sector. CarMax's income from financing declined $27 million to $9.8 million in 1Q FY2009. The company is facing higher funding costs and higher loss assumptions. Presently the stock is trading right around $16, but will face an uphill battle just to stay in that price range.

Credit crunch hits used car market; CarMax profits drop 48%

The tightening of access to credit and higher costs associated with financing hit used car seller CarMax Inc. (NYSE: KMX) right in the wallet. The company suffered a huge 48% drop in 4th quarter (4Q) net earnings, the vast majority of which stemmed from growing losses and increasing credit expenses in its auto finance unit. Thus unit posted a $1 million loss in 4Q2008, as compared to a $31.7 million profit in 4Q 2007. CarMax CEO Tom Folliard states the company is willing to tolerate such a loss in order to maintain in-house financing capabilities as a way to help boost sales and grow market share. But for how long? Fiscal Year (FY) 2008 earnings declined 8% as a result of the 4Q plunge.

CarMax is doing a whole lot of things right. 4Q sales increased 9% to just over $2 billion and FY 2008 sales increased 10% to $8.2 billion for used cars, to help counter a 20% decline in new car sales. Comparable store sales increased 3% and market share grew a bit. But in order to hit these numbers, CarMax dropped its gross profit per unit by $120. Average profit per unit sales was just over $2500.

"You can't sell what you can't finance" remains as true in the used car market as in real estate. Despite increasing costs for credit and financing, CarMax plans to continue its expansion plans, opening 14 used car superstores in 2009. Revenue is projected to grow in the 7-14% range based on modest growth in sales per unit volume. FY 2009 EPS is forecast at $0.78-$0.84. Used car retailers will remain in a much stronger financial position than new car retailers, at least for the foreseeable future.

Ford models lead list of 'most delightful vehicles'

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) continues to sit in the pit of lagging sales and mountains of losses, even as some of its vehicles continue racking up awards and industry praise. In the 2007 Strategic Vision report on "most delightful" vehicles, the Detroit automaker won or tied for first in six categories -- the most of any automaker. So, why aren't Ford's sales reflecting all this jubilation? Hard to tell, but you may want to ask Toyota Motor Co. (NYSE: TM) about it.

Here are Ford's results from the six categories it won or tied for first in: Ford's Mazda3 (small car); Ford's Volvo V50 Wagon (medium multifunction); Ford 's Expedition EL (large SUV); Ford's Lincoln MKX (tied for near-luxury SUV); Ford's Land Rover Range Rover Sport (luxury SUV); and finally, the Ford F-250/350 (heavy-duty pickup).

So, it really was not all Ford's nameplate, but a bevy of its brands that helped it achieve record success here. Although rival automaker General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) garnered a decent awards showing as well, Ford took top honors across the board. But then again, 2008 automobile sales in the U.S. are expected to slow down to lead to a flat year of sales growth, so Ford won't be the only one seeing middling success this year in the U.S. new car market. At least it will have some awards to plaster on those showroom marketing plaques.

Ford's Sync is a hit -- the new Focus, not so much

In the words of one reviewer, "it's hard to hide the disappointment" with the new 2008 Focus from Ford Motor (NYSE: F). While the car is "serviceable," it lacks the pizazz of the new compact cars from Honda, Mazda and Volvo. This is particularly annoying since Ford owns Volvo and has a stake in Mazda.

To make matters worse, there is a new Focus made by Ford in Europe which is earning rave reviews. But the American version of the car will not use the more advanced platform of the European model. It's the same old story: American consumers get the boring version of Detroit's global efforts. In this case, they even have to put up with cheesy fake air vents glued to the fender.

The good news is that Ford's new Sync electronics system is getting lots of positive reviews. As our own Brian White noted (Mr. Softy climbs in with Ford), Sync was developed with Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) and allows drivers to use their MP3 players and cell phones in the car with voice-activated software. The reviewer at The New York Times thinks it's a great system, going so far as to say that it is far better than BMW's iDrive. Our pals at AutoBlog agree, and they claim that Sync is actually helping Ford sell more cars. So even though the car itself may be dull, at least you'll have a cool computer system to keep you from noticing too much.

Nissan anticipates more U.S. market share in 2008

Nissan Motor (NASDAQ: NSANY) talked up new 2008 vehicle models yesterday in announcing that it wants to take more market share in the U.S. market next year. With Ford losing share, General Motors raising prices and Toyota facing some harsh PR for a recent, high-profile recall, perhaps it has a chance.

Although the U.S. is set to have a soft sales year in 2008 when it comes to vehicle sales, Nissan North America executive Larry Dominique also indicated that the continuing popularity of large crossover utility vehicles (CUVs) has Nissan thinking of a possible product shift from SUVs to the more popular CUVs.

Nissan did see November 2007 sales up 5.5% over the year-ago month to 978,683 sold U.S. vehicles, which gave the Japanese automaker a whole percentage point more of market share than it had in 2006. Along with other automakers, Nissan's SUV sales have suffered in 2007 although at the same time sales of its new 2007-8 Altima and the subcompact Versa passenger car have increased.

General Motors racing Toyota to 100% electric vehicle

General Motors (NYSE: GM) is setting itself up for what could be the largest unveiling of an electric vehicle ever with its Volt line of electrically-powered vehicles. As gasoline reaches and surpasses the $3/gallon mark nationwide, customers have to wonder why no car manufacturer has fulfilled the need for an electric car; and one that does not have limitations rendering it non-competitive to a standard gas-powered passenger car, like these Zapcars pictured here.

GM executives have recently said that the Volt is on track for sale for late 2010, and it will be a rechargeable vehicle that is 100% electric, not a hybrid. It's not only nice looking, it would eliminate gas as a variable in that daily commute. To some, that means a savings of a few hundred dollars (or more) per month. GM, however, is not going at this effort alone. Toyota is in the race as well, and there will soon be a "showdown" with GM, according to a senior GM executive last week.

The Chevy Volt should be launched in November 2010, according to GM CEO Richard Wagoner and head of global product development Robert Lutz. That's three years from now, and it's still considered an "aggressive" posture by GM's global design and manufacturing teams. Will Toyota be able to beat that deadline and deliver a solid, 100% electric offering within the next three years and once again show up its main global rival? Lutz said that by next April, one company will be able to show a prototype on the street, and the other will take a credibility hit (stating that batteries won't be able to push cars, even in three years). We'll see who is correct in about five months or so.

Ford ready to shelve some autos if sales fall further

Ford Motor (NYSE: F) logoJust when it looked like things might be going right at Ford (NYSE: F), it may be going wrong again. The company, which reported a better third quarter than Wall Street expected, said that a bad U.S. economy might drive sales down and force the company to cut production on some vehicles. The No. 2 car maker has faced double digit sales declines in most of its monthly reports this year.

In statements picked up by Reuters, Ford CEO Alan Mulally said, "The business environment has clearly gotten tougher. It's gotten tougher and we want to be ready to move if we need to."

The comments cannot hearten the UAW, which just gave Ford a nifty new contract. Lower production and idling of plants generally means layoffs. The UAW may have won a big battle, but part of the war now still appears to be ahead.

Ford has reached an interesting tipping point. If it is going to compete with other large car companies in the U.S., it needs to have a full line of cars and light trucks. It also needs to have the capacity to increase production when the markets begin to improve. Ford may cut more workers, layoff more managers, and stop production at more facilities. But at some point, it is only half a car company by size. And that means an end to Ford as it has been known for almost 100 years.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

What kind of car should you buy for your young driver?

Low-price entry level cars from car-makers like Kia may be attractive to a lot of young drivers. They're inexpensive (as low as $11,395 for a Kia Rio) and you still get that new car smell.

You may be able get more value and more safety in a used car but unfortunately, given the frequency of accidents involving new drivers, not enough attention is given to vehicle safety.

According to The New York Times, "A survey released in June by the Insurance Institute found that vehicles bought in anticipation of adding a new driver to the family were more likely to be of sizes and types considered less safe than vehicles already owned."

Experts recommend buying an older mid-size vehicle rather than a newer compact or, heaven forbid, an SUV or van. Studies have shown that the more passengers there are in a car, the more likely a new driver is to crash it.

The most important thing is to stand up to your kid and be the parent. Of course, few kids will feel cool driving a Volvo station wagon (the only kind of car my mother would let me drive), but trading coolness for safety is a deal parents have to be willing to make.

For more information, check out Consumer Reports' guide to Cars for Teen Drivers.

Read this before you buy a car

I'm currently mulling buying a new car, hopefully something that does better on gas than the old Volvo I'm currently driving. Not knowing much about cars, but wanting to be a savvy consumer, I spent a little time Googling around for information on how to shop for a car. There were plenty of how-to guides, mostly filled with fairly obvious advice -- make a decision at your own pace, focus on the price not the payments if you are planning to finance, etc. But there was one article that, in addition to providing some valuable insight into car shopping, was also fascinating reading.

Edmunds.com hired journalist Chandler Phillips to go "undercover" and work at two new car dealerships in the Los Angeles area. He then wrote a 9-part series on the experience, and provides numerous tips for how to beat the car dealers by knowing how they think, how they're paid, and what the job is really like.

Chandler's top 7 things to remember should be planted firmly in your mind next time you go shopping for a ride:

  1. Use the internet to research cars before you go to the dealer.
  2. Take your time -- Don't let the dealer rush you into making a decision.
  3. Trust your gut. Don't work with a dealer/dealership that you don't like.
  4. Know the numbers for the car you want.
  5. Visit more than one dealer before making a purchase.
  6. Remember that even after a deal is agreed to, there is still negotiating to be done.
  7. Never forget: It's your money.

Toyota (TM) on steroids

Toyota (NYSE: TM) announced earnings that were another reason for the rest of the car industry to be concerned. The firm's April-June profit jumped 32.3 percent to a record high for a quarter, lifted by strong overseas sales. Quarterly revenue rose almost 16% to $54.7 billion.

Sales in North American and Europe were particularly strong. According to Reuters, results are also being "powered by a rapid expansion into developing markets such as China and Russia."

Toyota now gets to define how big big can be in the global automotive market. The company's growth will start to come up against the law of large numbers, especially in mature markets like the US where its share is now above 15% and heading higher.

The company has two challenges, at least in the US market. The first is that the overall sales environment could be hurt by high energy prices and problems in the housing sector. The second is that US car companies are fighting for their lives and are in the process of coming out with their own fuel-efficient, smaller cars and SUVs. They may be losing the fight, but they will at least draw some blood from Toyota with improved products and customer incentives.

The hardest part of Toyota's work to keep growing may be ahead of it.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 247WallSt.com.

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Last updated: November 13, 2009: 12:41 AM

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