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Options Update: REIT volatility elevated on economic pressures; AMB, ESS, AVB

AMB Property (NYSE: AMB), a global developer and owner of industrial real estate, closed at $13.25 Wednesday. Goldman Sachs says: "We remain cautious on REITS." AMB December option implied volatility of 107 is above its 8-week average of 66 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Essex Property Trust (NYSE: ESS), a REIT with the majority of real estate consisting of apartment communities, closed at $74.33 Wednesday. ESS December option implied volatility of 81 is above its 26-week average of 51 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

AvalonBay (NYSE: AVB), an owner or indirect owner of 178 apartment communities containing 50,370 apartment homes, closed at $55.03 Wednesday. AVB December option implied volatility of 83 is above its 26-week average of 54 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

A REIT that was thrown out with the bathwater

It's no secret that the entire real estate market in the U.S. is suffering. For investors owning REITs, we are in the midst of a year of real pain. For long-term investors, some opportunities have arisen in the REIT space.


With people unable to get mortgages, the rental market has proven to be quite strong. Either from people who sold or forfeited their homes, to people who won't qualify for a mortgage, to higher end buyers who believe prices will continue to fall -- everyone still needs living accommodations. That's why I think the market has it wrong with some of the REIT sectors.

REITs dealing with rental markets should be strong, but, alas, their stock has gotten slammed just as bad as everyone else's. It's a classic case of throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

My top pick in this sector is AvalonBay Communities (NYSE: AVB). AvalonBay develops, acquires, refurbishes, leases, and manages apartment complexes. The stock is down over 40% over the last year and currently sports a nice dividend yield of 3.9%. I think long-term investors will be richly rewarded on this stock.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. Disclosure: Writer has no position long or short in any stock mentioned as of 1/14/08.

Analyst downgrades: REITs, BOBJ, ALL and PGR

MOST NOTEWORTHY: REITs, Business Objects, Allstate Corp and P&C Insurance were today's noteworthy downgrades:
OTHER DOWNGRADES:

Analyst upgrades 5-30-07: Coca-Cola upgraded to Buy

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Coca-Cola (KO), Fiserv, Inc (FISV) and several real estate companies were today's noteworthy upgrades:
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • RBC Capital upgraded Texas Roadhouse (NASDAQ: TXRH) to Outperform from Sector Perform, citing valuation and improved EPS outlook.
  • Kenexa Corp (NASDAQ: KNXA) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse, citing valuation and reduced risk from the BrassRing acquisition.
  • Goldman Sachs added Foster Wheeler (NASDAQ: FWLT) added to its Conviction Buy List, citing valuation and leverage to energy infrastructure build and power.
  • Goldman also added ProLogis (NYSE: PLD) to its Conviction Buy list, citing upside to FFO guidance, favorable domestic and international demand and above-average development margins.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Analyst upgrades 5-23-07: COP, FRX, SPLS and SUNW

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Staples, Inc (SPLS), Sun Microsystems, Inc (SUNW), Forest Laboratories, Inc (FRX), AvalonBay Communities (AVB) and ConocoPhillips (COP) were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Soleil upgraded shares of Staples, Inc (NASDAQ: SPLS) to Buy from Hold following the in-line Q1 results, as the firm believes management's initiatives will benefit the company for the remainder of the year.
  • Matrix upgraded Sun Microsystems (NASDAQ: SUNW) to Hold from Sell based on improved profitability and margins due to cost cuts.
  • First Albany upgraded Forest Laboratories (NYSE: FRX) to Strong Buy from Neutral following positive preliminary results for Milnacipran in Fibromyalgia.
  • Bernstein upgraded shares of ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) to Outperform from Market Perform...
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Piper Jaffray upgraded Medtronic, Inc (NYSE: MDT) to Outperform from Market Perform.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-93.7910,197.47
NASDAQ-17.882,149.02
S&P 500-11.271,087.24

Last updated: November 12, 2009: 07:33 PM

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