Copper was the darling of commodity traders. The price rallied from about $6,400 per ton to a record $10,190 in the past year, The Financial Times reports. Momentum was strong and it looked like there was no end in sight. But now, prices have dropped off a bit and miners are worried that the rally has hit a brick wall. The main concern is that what drove drove prices skyward -- China's demand -- may be slowing, according to the FT.

One indication of the slowdown is the amount of stocks held in exchange warehouses. At the LME Asia + Shanghai exchange warehouses, copper stocks have increased from below 150,000 to over 325,000 tons. That buildup has worried miners. The companies affected are Freeport MeMoRan (FCX), BHP Billiton (BHP), Xstrada (XSRAF), Anglo American and Brazil's Codelco, according to the Financial Times.

Continue reading Miners Hedge Copper Inventories as Demand from China Slows

Miners Hedge Copper Inventories as Demand from China Slows originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 04 Apr 2011 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Founded in 1989, Chesapeake Energy (CHK) has grown to become the second largest producer of natural gas and one of the most active drillers of new wells in the U.S. Chesapeake competes with other oil and gas producers like Exxon Mobil (XOM), ConocoPhillips (COP), Anadarko (APC), BP (BP) and Chevron (CVX). Chesapeake owns interests in around 44,100 producing natural gas and oil wells that are currently producing around 2.4 billion cubic feet equivalent (bcfe), 93% of which is natural gas.

Continue reading Chesapeake Results Confirm Upside; Shale Sale Looks Like a Bargain

Chesapeake Results Confirm Upside; Shale Sale Looks Like a Bargain originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sat, 05 Mar 2011 16:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Alcoa (AA) is the world leader in the production and management of primary aluminum, fabricated aluminum and alumina. The company has a significant presence in all segments of the aluminum industry and operates in more than 31 countries worldwide. The company competes with other international metals and mining giants like Rusal, Rio Tinto (RTP), BHP Billiton (BHP) and Chalco (ACH).

The company recently released its Q4 2010 earnings, and we have updated our price estimate to $17.68 based on a reduction in total debt, an increase in revenues from better product pricing and better cash management leading to cost savings.

Primary Metals the Biggest Driver of Value

The primary metals division produces primary aluminum used by Alcoa's fabricating businesses, and it is sold to external customers, aluminum traders and on commodity markets. While our analysis shows that it was Alcoa's most valuable division in terms of contributor to shareholder's income, we have further increased our estimates for the overall value of the division going forward.

Aluminum prices have increased over the last two years since their sudden decline from peak prices in mid-2008. The 13% increase in global aluminum prices in 2010 has been directly responsible for the observed increase in the division's revenue.

We capture the impact of the aluminum prices on Alcoa's revenues in our forecast for the yearly average price of primary metals.

With demand for aluminum predicted to increase from 10-15% in developing countries like China, South Korea, Thailand and India, Alcoa's estimate of a 12% growth rate for 2011 is well justified. We believe that the demand growth will increase Alcoa's revenue per ton of aluminum sold to as high as $3,400 in coming years from its current value of about $2,500.

See the complete $17.68 Trefis Price estimate for Alcoa's stock.

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Rising Aluminium Prices to Drive Alcoa's Value originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 17 Feb 2011 14:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

U.S. stock futures are mixed this morning, as investors are awaiting economic data on retail sales and manufacturing activity in the New York area. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 3 points to 12,227.00 and S&P 500 futures fell 0.30 point to 1,327.40. Nasdaq 100 futures gained 1 point to 2,382.75.

European markets were mixed today. While STOXX Europe 600 Index has gained 0.12%, London's FTSE 100 Index moved down 0.06%.

Asian markets ended mixed, with Japan's Nikkei Stock Average gaining 0.20% and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 moving down 0.08%.

Continue reading Futures Mixed Ahead of Retail Sales Data

Futures Mixed Ahead of Retail Sales Data originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 15 Feb 2011 08:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Shares of Anadarko Petroleum (APC) gapped higher right out of the gate Thursday morning, thanks to a report that BHP Billiton (BHP) may be eyeing the firm as a potential takeover target. According to the U.K.'s Daily Mail, BHP could be prepping an offer worth $90 per share to acquire Anadarko. However, neither company has issued a formal response to the speculation.

After jumping to a new annual high of $76.50 bright and early Thursday morning, APC is on pace to notch a weekly finish atop the $70 level for the first time since April 23. In fact, if the shares can maintain their positive momentum through Friday's close, the shares could stage their first weekly victory north of $75 since June 2008.

Continue reading Anadarko Petroleum Bounces Higher on Buyout Buzz

Anadarko Petroleum Bounces Higher on Buyout Buzz originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 30 Dec 2010 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

"Commodities are experiencing a long-term bull market that will last for years, despite periodic ups and downs," notes Yiannis Mostrous, editor of The Silk Road Investor.

Mostrous -- author of the just-published The Rise of the State: Profitable Investing and Geopolitics in the 21st Century -- explains, "Our latest new buy is BHP Billiton (BHP) is the world's largest mining company by market capitalization.

Continue reading Mining for Value with BHP Billiton

Mining for Value with BHP Billiton originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 09 Dec 2010 09:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Australian mining firm Rio Tinto (RIO) revealed plans to triple its capital expenditure to around $11 billion. The company also plans to up its iron ore production by more than 50% during the next five years.

The boost in production stems from new drilling and a reevaluation of deposits in Western Australia where the company found an extra two billion tons of iron ore reserves. The expansion of the iron ore division should help RIO take advantage of the "growing demand for raw materials to make steel" in China.

Continue reading Rio Tinto Boosts Iron Ore Output, Ups Spending

Rio Tinto Boosts Iron Ore Output, Ups Spending originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 26 Nov 2010 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Caterpillar Is Not Dirt Cheap

Chasing Value: Caterpillar Is Not Dirt Cheap originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 15 Nov 2010 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Analyst Upgrades

• Citigroup upgraded Mosaic (MOS) to buy from hold and raised its price target to $78 from $64 citing improving ag fundamentals and the potential for BHP (BHP) to issue a higher bid for Potash (POT), which Citi feels would bode well for Mosaic.
• Cowen upgraded VMware (VMW) to outperform from neutral, citing recent share weakness and the company's significant growth opportunity.
• Citigroup upgraded CareFusion (CFN) with a $29 price target, citing valuation and the potential for margin expansion.
• Pfizer (PFE) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Cowen.
• Juniper (JNPR) was upgraded to outperform from perform at Oppenheimer.
• Stryker (SYK) was upgraded to buy from gradually accumulate at Soleil.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: ALKS, AMLN, BAC, CFN, FWLT, MOS, PFE, VMW, WFR ...

Analyst Calls: ALKS, AMLN, BAC, CFN, FWLT, MOS, PFE, VMW, WFR ... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 20 Oct 2010 12:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Potash Mulling Break-Up

Potash Mulling Break-Up originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 11 Oct 2010 09:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Closing Bell: From Green to Red (WFC, JAZZ, HPQ, DELL, PAR, SAFM, POT, BHP)

Closing Bell: From Green to Red (WFC, JAZZ, HPQ, DELL, PAR, SAFM, POT, BHP) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 23 Aug 2010 16:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading What's Potash Worth?

What's Potash Worth? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 23 Aug 2010 13:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Reportedly, Potash (POT) is considering joining forces with global firms that would be able to present an offer to compete with BHP Billiton's (BHP) $38.6 billion bid.

According to The Wall Street Journal, people "familiar with the matter" stated that there could be a global consortium in the works to make a counteroffer for Potash. BHP has gone straight to Potash shareholders with its offer of $130 per share.

Continue reading A Bidding War for Potash?

A Bidding War for Potash? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 20 Aug 2010 12:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Closing Bell: Squeaking By (NFLX, POT, BHP, X, BZH, STP)

Closing Bell: Squeaking By (NFLX, POT, BHP, X, BZH, STP) originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 18 Aug 2010 16:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

In the wake of the BHP Billiton's (BHP) failed $39 billion offer and its new hostile $40 billion takeover bid for Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan (POT), agricultural fertilizer companies, including CF Industries Holdings (CF), are starting to look pretty juicy to investors.

Fertilizer companies have been struggling during the past few years as cash-strapped farmers have been pulling back on their purchases, but the tide appears to be changing.

With rising prices for crops like wheat and corn, it is starting to look like it is going to be a really good year for U.S. farmers, which means they are going to have plenty of money to reinvest in new machinery and more fertilizer.

Continue reading CF Industries Growing as Fertilizers Heat Up

CF Industries Growing as Fertilizers Heat Up originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 18 Aug 2010 10:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

• BMO Capital upgraded Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) to Outperform from Market Perform based on valuation and the company's growth outlook. The firm has a price target of $125 on the stock.
• Morgan Keegan upgraded WESCO (WCC) to Outperform from Market Perform ahead of Thursday's earnings report based on valuation and expectations for stronger than expected sales.
• Keefe Bruyette upgraded Bank of Marin (BMRC) to Outperform from Market Perform with a $40 price target following the company's Q2 results.
• BHP Billiton (BHP) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.
• PPG Industries (PPG) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
• Schnitzer Steel (SCHN) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: ICE, BHP, PETS, GLW, TEL, SFLY

Analyst Calls: ICE, BHP, PETS, GLW, TEL, SFLY originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 20 Jul 2010 13:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

• ThinkEquity upgraded Yahoo! (YHOO) to Buy from Hold based on valuation, checks that indicate Q2 display/search improvement, search stabilization, improved cost structure, and share repurchases.
• Societe Generale upgraded Roche Holding (RHHBY) to Buy from Hold based on expectations Avastin will be approved in breast cancer, despite negative FDA briefing documents.
• FBR Capital upgraded Atheros (ATHR) to Outperform from Market Perform based on valuation and positive checks that indicate powerline networking chips are gaining traction in China. The firm has a $43 price target on the stock.
• Juniper (JNPR) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord.
• Ultimate Software (ULTI) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Roth Capital.
• Liberty Property Trust (LRY) was upgraded to Market Perform at Wells Fargo.

• Auriga downgraded ADC Telecomm (ADCT) to Hold from Buy following the company's merger announcement with Tyco Electronics (TEL).
• TD Newcrest expects Manulife's (MFC) Q2 loss to be worse than expected due to the impact from lower interest rates. The firm cut shares to Hold from Buy.
• Goldman downgraded Perrigo (PRGO) to Sell from Neutral and lowered its target to $50 from $61. The firm cites relative valuation for the downgrade. Target to $50 from $61.
• F5 Networks (FFIV) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord.
• Anglo American (AAUKY) and BHP Billiton (BHP) were downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse.

• QKL Stores (QKLS) was initiated with a Buy rating and $7 price target at Global Hunter.
• Rodman & Renshaw started Rick's Cabaret (RICK) with an Outperform rating.

Analyst Calls: YHOO, ATHR, JNPR, ADCT, MFC, BHP, AAUKY, RHHBY originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 19 Jul 2010 11:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Analyst upgrades:

• Oppenheimer upgraded Goldman Sachs (GS) to Outperform from Perform following the company's $550M settlement with the SEC. Opco has a $213 price target for Goldman shares. BofA/Merrill upgraded Goldman Sachs to Buy from Neutral and raised its price target to $182 from $160.
• Wells Fargo upgraded JP Morgan (JPM) to Outperform from Market Perform following the company's Q2 results citing valuation and lower credit costs. The firm keeps a valuation range for shares of $48-$51.
• Goldman upgraded Murphy Oil (MUR) to Buy from Neutral and has a $61 price target on the stock. The firm cites Murphy's Eagle Ford growth and valuation for the upgrade.
• Precision Cast (PCP) was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Pride International (PDE) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies.
• BHP Billiton (BHP) was upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at HSBC.

Continue reading Analyst Calls: GS, JPM, BHP, HES, VVUS, SNE, PG, MGM, HUM

Analyst Calls: GS, JPM, BHP, HES, VVUS, SNE, PG, MGM, HUM originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 16 Jul 2010 11:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Analyst Upgrades

• Soleil upgraded Starwood Hotels (HOT) to buy from hold, citing accelerating RevPAR comps and valuation. The firm upped its target for shares to $57 from $55.
• TD Newcrest upgraded Ivanhoe Mines (IVN) to speculative buy from hold based on valuation.
• BMO Capital upgraded Power Integrations (POWI) and ON Semiconductor (ONNN) to outperform from market perform based on valuation. The firm has a $45 target on Power Integrations and a $9 target on ON Semiconductor.
• Priceline.com (PCLN) was upgraded to buy from neutral at Goldman.
• Reliance Steel (RS) was upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS.
• AXA (AXA) was upgraded to add from neutral at WestLB.
  

Continue reading Analyst Calls: AXA, BHP, BYI, CAT, DWA, HOT, IVN, JPM, ONNN, PCLN ...

Analyst Calls: AXA, BHP, BYI, CAT, DWA, HOT, IVN, JPM, ONNN, PCLN ... originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 16 Jun 2010 12:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

In my search for value investments among the top twelve stocks by capitalization -- the "super caps" -- I began by reviewing the price-to-earnings and price-to-sales ratios. Today we will move on to examine price-to-book (P/B) and price-to-cash flow (P/CF).

If you are one of the lucky ones that benefited from the market's long rise from the depths of Hades and are now looking to rotate into less volatile positions, or you still remain apprehensive and want to stake out a new position, some of these super caps may be just for you.

Continue reading Serious Money: Buying the Super Caps, Part 2

Serious Money: Buying the Super Caps, Part 2 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 18 May 2010 10:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.