One theory about a recession is that people will not buy cars or refrigerators, but they will buy beer, razors, soap and books. If you can't ride around in a new Chevy, at least you can read about someone who is.
That theory went out the window, at least in part, when Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS) said its same-store sales were down -- a lot.
Last year, the nation's largest book seller made a little money in the quarter ending November 1. It was a very little, $4.4 million. This year, BKS lost $18.4 billion as same-store sales fell 7.4%. Barnes & Noble also dropped its forecast for the next quarter.
The BKS earnings news is particularly bad as the holiday season begins. Companies that sell discretionary items for under $30 have probably hoped that they would benefit, perhaps only modestly, from consumers looking for relatively cheap gifts for grandpa and the kids.
Even cheap is looking expensive this holiday. Although there is Barnes & Noble stock. It is only $12.25 a share.
Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS), a bookseller that competes with Borders Group (NYSE: BGP), Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), and retailers that stock books such as Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), did not do well during the third quarter. Total sales decreased over 4%. A GAAP loss of $0.34 per share was reported versus a GAAP profit of $0.07 per share in the year-ago period. On an adjusted basis, the loss of $0.21 per share missed the call by $0.05, according to this source.
Okay, is it me, or do these numbers basically broadcast loud and clear that Barnes & Noble is not worth one penny of your investment capital? Besides the above, same-store sales took a big dive of 7.4%. That should be the last nail in the coffin of the current Barnes & Noble story, one that reads like a Stephen King novel. Actually, though, it isn't. Another nail to add would be the fact that guidance has been adjusted lower by management. Now, according to CEO Steve Riggio, gross margins are doing okay. I'll skip that chapter, though, as there isn't much substance to it. Who cares about the gross margin at this point. With traffic down and probably due to get worse, a positive tale of the gross margin isn't going to make me want to buy Barnes & Noble as a value play.
Last week, JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) posted a quarterly loss and lowered its guidance. But as interest in alternative energy continues to grow, analysts polled by Thomson Financial are still looking for good things from solar energy concerns scheduled to report earnings this week.
Strong growth at Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) in the third quarter prompted it to lift its guidance back in October. Analysts expect the Chinese company to post profits that are 76.3% higher than a year ago, or $1.18 per share on revenues of $268.4 million (+225.0%). Though Trina Solar missed estimates in the second quarter, analysts on average recommend buying TSL. Shares are down 81.4% from a year ago and trading near an all-time low.
Earnings of rival LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) are expect to have risen 47.9% to $0.71 per share on revenues of $486.7 million (+206.6%). Also based in China, LDK has not missed estimates in recent quarters; in fact, it blew past expectations in the second quarter. Yet the consensus recommendation is to hold LDK. Like Trina Solar, LDK's shares are trading near an all-time low; the share price has fallen 50.0% in the past year.
Analysts anticipate third-quarter earnings for Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) to be a whopping 96.3% higher than a year ago, or $0.54 per share on revenues of $248.0 million (+154.5%). The company easily topped estimates in the previous quarter. ReneSola Ltd. (NYSE: SOL) and Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) are also expected to report earnings growth of 29.7% ($0.37 per share) and 23.8% ($0.42 per share), respectively. All three of these stocks reached 52-week lows last week, and all are considered buys.
So, how will booksellers such as Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS), Borders Group (NYSE: BGP), and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) fare during the holiday season? It's an interesting question, one which is examined in an article at The New York Times. The piece talks about how the current recession seems to be affecting consumers and their desire to buy books. At the beginning of the article, two shoppers are browsing in a bookstore -- one buys, the other doesn't. Both have been affected by the bad economy. What are we to make of this?
I'll give you my take on things. Books, unfortunately, are simply not so glamorous these days. And I do think that booksellers are going to have a hard time this holiday season. With all the competition from video games and other media, the printed page just isn't that exciting to a lot of consumers. I don't think that books will be a top priority as the wallet continues to get squeezed and while job security remains an issue. Our attention spans have been cut so short these days, and they're only getting shorter. In an era of MTV quick-edits and PowerPoint presentations, 100,000-word diversions don't feel so diverting anymore.
Books are probably even less exciting to young people. Seriously, how many kids have books on their Christmas lists this year? They may want the latest Blu-ray cartoon from Disney (NYSE: DIS), or the latest Call of Duty game from Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI), but I'm not so sure they want the latest Stephen King novel (as for me, I picked up King's latest short-story collection Just After Sunset at my local Barnes & Noble). Many kids have been introduced to the joys of reading through the Harry Potter series, but I don't think Potter will be working his magic this season. If parents do cut back this year on presents, I figure they're going to err on the side of making sure that all the non-book gifts are acquired.
Is there anything the booksellers can do about this?
With Borders' (NYSE: BGP) efforts at a sale of the entire company so far producing no results, the company is coming up on an important deadline. Under a deal struck with hedge fund manager William Ackman, if the company doesn't sell itself by October 1, Ackman's fund will receive options to purchase 5.15 million shares of the company's stock at $7 per share. Given that that represents a good chunk of the company's 60.5 million shares outstanding, any deal at a substantial premium would become a lot more expensive after October 1.
The Wall Street Journalreports (subscription required) that since "shares of Borders are trading close to the exercise price of the warrants, Mr. Ackman is likely to wait to redeem them until the shares are well above their current level. If Borders misses the deadline to complete a deal and issues the warrants, Mr. Ackman stands to benefit even more from a sale and may begin to exert pressure on Borders to secure a transaction quickly."
I'm not so sure about that. I think the problem is that no one wants to buy Borders -- Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS) reportedly lost interest after taking a look at the books -- and the higher cost to a potential buyer that will come with the options grant will make a sale much less likely, however badly Ackman wants it.
Ackman already has a 35.6% stake in Borders, and shareholders are lucky to have someone as smart as him on their side, pushing the board of directors to maximize value. But it may be too late.
Barnes & Noble Inc. (NYSE: BKS) surprised Wall Street today by reporting quarterly earnings that did not suck as bad analysts expected, mainly because it was able to control costs. The question is whether this is sustainable.
Net income at the world's largest bookseller fell to $15.4 million, or 27 cents a share, from $18.05 million, or 26 cents, a year earlier. Sales dropped 1.6% to $1.2 billion from a year earlier when J.K. Rowling's Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows was flying off the shelves. Barnes & Noble store sales decreased 1.6% to $1.1 billion, with comparable store sales decreasing 4.7%. Barnes & Noble.com sales rose 3.6% to $99.8 million.
Excluding a one-time tax benefit, profit was 15 cents, five cents ahead of the 10-cent average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. It was also higher than the company's guidance of 8 cents to 13 cents a share. Gross margins were stronger because of the greater utilization rates of its distribution centers and a lower markdown rate. Selling and administrative expenses fell in the quarter.
Of course, Barnes & Noble will continue to struggle as consumers cut back on their discretionary purchases. Moreover, Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) is not going anywhere soon. The company expects to lose 10 to 15 cents in the third quarter. It also lowered its full-year comparable same store sales guidance from "slightly negative to a decrease in the low single digits." The company is maintaining its full-year earnings guidance of $1.70 to $1.90.
At this rate, the company may be able to ride out the economic downturn until it can find a private equity buyer which is about the only hope for shareholders.
Amedisys (NASDAQ: AMED) was started as Outperform at Baird, according to24/7 Wall St. The financial website also reported that Telus (NYSE: TU) was raised to Buy at UBS.
The Wall Street Journalreports (subscription required) of upcoming releases this summer such as Andrew Davidson's The Gargoyle, New York Times reporter David Carr's memoir The Night of the Gun, and Ron Suskind's The Way of the World: A Story of Truth and Hope in an Age of Extremism.
There's a separate article on the release of Stephenie Meyer's book Breaking Dawn, which The Journal calls a "vampire romance novel." Borders Group (NYSE: BGP) said it has sold 250,000 copies in the first 24 hours following the book's release.
That's an impressive number, and it may be some cause for hope for shareholders who have taken a beating in booksellers like Borders, Barnes and Noble (NYSE: BKS) and Books-a-Million (NASDAQ: BAMM).
But don't get too excited. Since the first American edition of the first Harry Potter book in October of 1998, shares of Scholastic (NASDAQ: SCHL), a specialty publisher of children's books, have gone from around $20 per share to their current price of $26 -- a gain of 30% over the course of a decade. Not exactly something to get excited about, especially considering it's one of the bestselling books of all time, ever.
The bookstores might get a temporary jolt from late sumer and fall hits, but the long-term fundamentals of the industry will drive results. A new CD from Eminem -- or even The Beatles for that matter -- wouldn't be enough to save a company like Trans World Entertainment (NASDAQ: TWMC). For bookstores, that means the lower prices and wider selection of Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), or conveniences of stores like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), as well as the onset of digital delivery are the factors investors have to look at.
And even vampire romance novels can't compete with those.
When it comes to companies lacking in any kind of strategic direction, it's hard to top Border Group (NYSE: BGP). In the midst of its efforts to sell itself, Borders recently launched its own e-commerce site to compete with better-financed, and just plain better, rivals like Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Barnes and Noble (NYSE: BKS).
Browsing NewYorkTimes.com this morning, I noticed a banner ad for "the new Borders.com: Free shipping on orders over $25."
Man, that should do a lot to lure customers away from Amazon and Barnes & Noble. Oh, wait. No it won't, because both of those sites offer exactly the same deal. And, just to add insult to injury, so does Books-A-Million (NASDAQ: BAMM).
Basically, Borders has a weak balance sheet and, in the midst of its efforts to put its shareholders out of their misery with a sale, is blowing money on capital expenditures that will give the company the same service as competitors: meaning that most strategic buyers won't pay any extra for the e-commerce site.
The stock's low price has attracted brilliant investors like William Ackman, but given that the company is continuing to make value-destroying decisions, I don't think it's a stock investors should go near.
According to Yahoo! Inc (NASDAQ: YHOO), the Wall Street Journal reported that a severance plan investor Carl Icahn said is "excessively expensive" would come into play if Icahn is successful in his plan to take control of the company's board; Yahoo! maintained that the plan is structured to prevent Yahoo! from altering or dismantling it while under a proxy challenge.
The Financial Times reported that Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH) almost reached a strategic deal with a group of Korean financial institutions as part of its recent capital raising initiative, and the investment bank may still sign an agreement with the Korean companies this year, inside sources said.
A source familiar with the matter told dealReporter that Barnes & Noble Inc (NYSE: BKS) is conducting due diligence, but has not established whether it will competitively bid for Borders Group Inc (NYSE: BGP). Should Barnes & Noble indicate real interest, the biding process could be delayed, the source said.
OTHER PAPERS:
The Detroit News reported that Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F), in an effort to keep up with changing consumer demand in the U.S., is assembling a plan that will shift entire truck plants to car production.
In what looks to be a pretty desperate attempt to revive its failing business, Borders Group Inc. (NYSE: BGP) has officially cut its ties with Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) and launched its own e-commerce website. Under the previous arrangement, shoppers at Borders.com had their orders fulfilled by Amazon, with Borders taking a small commission.
Check out the site here. It offers some great incentives to switch over from Amazon -- like free shipping on orders over $25! Oh wait. Amazon and Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS) already offer the exact same deal. Never mind.
Borders invested a lot of money in developing a site with no particular competitive advantages. Most Amazon customers are pretty happy with the service they get, and I just don't see any reason for anyone to switch. The duplication of effort probably makes Borders less attractive to potential strategic buyers like Barnes & Noble, which might have preferred that the company pay down debt instead of building another website.
U.S. stock futures were mixed early Tuesday morning as investors return from a three-day weekend to a shortened week full of economic data. Oil prices have also kept their high levels due to ongoing supply concerns.
On the latest trading day, Friday, U.S. stocks once again finished the day with heavy losses -- it was the third time in four sessions. Reasons for the considerable declines included the continued climb of oil prices, inflation and economic concerns. Both General Motors (NYSE: GM) and General Electric (NYSE: GE) hit multi-year lows Friday. The Dow industrials ended Friday 145 points lower, or 1.16%, the S&P 500 fell 18 points, or 1.32%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 19 points, or 0.81%. For the week, all three indexes lost some 3% to 4%.
On Friday, investors' mood was dampened by reading from the housing sector, as a report showed considerable inventory and the the number of unsold U.S. homes piled up a 23-year high in April. Just as housing affected trade on Friday, it will no doubt have some impact today with the release of April new home sales due at 10:00 a.m. EDT. Economists expect the report to show yet another decline. Also at the same time, May consumer confidence is due and is also expected to edge lower.
And, of course, the ever (recently) rising oil prices. While no new highs have registered over the weekend, crude prices held above $133 a barrel Tuesday, supported by supply concerns and worries about the health of the U.S. economy and hence the outlook for the U.S. dollar. A militant attack on a pipeline in Nigeria didn't help matters either.
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U.S. stock futures were mixed early Tuesday morning as investors return from a three-day weekend to a shortened week full of economic data. Oil prices have also kept their high levels due to ongoing supply concerns.
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