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Cramer on BloggingStocks: Tech's unjustified super bull market run

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says these stocks have become too expensive without takeovers and a more robust economy.

One after another after another, these software charts are amazing. And, I might add, a bit scary. How did McAfee (NYSE: MFE) (Cramer's Take) make that kind of move just on security software? Didn't Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) (Cramer's Take) just say -- admittedly for the 4 millionth time -- that it was going to give away free anti-virus software? Or Citrix (NASDAQ: CTXS) (Cramer's Take)? What's that all about? How could it return to those levels?

There were rumors of a Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) (Cramer's Take) takeover a week or two ago, and, amazingly, when it didn't come true, the stock hung in.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Tech's unjustified super bull market run

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: GOOG, AAPL, CELG, NFLX ...

Analyst upgrades:
  • Merriman upgraded shares of Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) to Neutral from Sell as they believe consensus estimates for Q4 and FY09 are no longer too high. In addition, the firm believes Google's slowing capex spend will improve margins and their recent channel checks indicate the company's ad coverage has increased significantly during Q4.
  • Oppenheimer upgraded shares of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) to Outperform from Perform following yesterday's disclosures regarding Steve Jobs' health. The firm has a $135 price target on Apple shares.
  • UBS upgraded BMC Software (NYSE: BMC) to Buy from Neutral and raised its target to $31 from $28 citing easier booking comps in the March quarter.
  • YRC Worldwide (NASDAQ: YRCW) was raised to Market Perform from Underperform at Wachovia.
  • Goldman removed Hewitt (NYSE: HEW) from its Conviction Sell List.
Analyst downgrades:
  • Stephens downgraded Emergency Medical Services (NYSE: EMS) to Equal Weight from Overweight on valuation, as they believe the stock is fairly valued at current levels. The firm maintains a $39 price target.
  • Merriman downgraded Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) to Neutral from Buy after Super Micro pre-announced a Q2 miss to reflect the company's "challenging" outlook.
  • Baird downgraded Celgene (NASDAQ: CELG) to Neutral from Outperform citing Revlimid growth concerns following their most recent survey and potential pressures on the European business and on Thalomid.
  • Medtronic (NYSE: MDT) was lowered to Market Perform from Outperform at Leerink.
  • Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE) was cut at Goldman to Neutral from Buy.
  • Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays.
Analyst initiations:
  • Merriman believes Itron (NASDAQ: ITRI) is well-positioned to benefit from the upgrade to Advanced Metering Infrastructure by tier one utilities and finds the stock attractively valued. Shares were initiated with a Neutral rating.
  • Oppenheimer assumed Jones Lang LaSalle (NYSE: JLL) with a Perform rating and expects the company's growth to slow in 2009 given global credit concerns and the economic slowdown.
  • Citigroup started Telmex (NYSE: TMX) with a Sell rating and $15 target. The firm believes the company's inability to offer 3-play services could lead to accelerated market share loss in 2009.
  • Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) was initiated at Janney Montgomery with a Neutral rating and $31 fair value estimate.
  • Arthur J. Gallagher (NYSE: AJG) was initiated with a Neutral rating at Piper Jaffray.
  • Jesup & Lamont assumed UTi Worldwide (NASDAQ: UTIW) with a Buy rating and $18 target.

Analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations: ALKS, CS, EBAY, AMZN, EXPE, FDX ...

Analyst upgrades:
  • Jefferies upgraded shares of Alkermes (NASDAQ: ALKS) to Overweight from Neutral on valuation, as they believe the current share price undervalues Risperdal Consta and provides little to no value for other pipeline drugs.
  • JP Morgan upgraded ASML Holding (NASDAQ: ASML) to Buy from Hold following the company's Q1 results, as they believe further estimate reductions are unlikely.
  • UBS expects ITT Educational (NYSE: ESI) to benefit from strong enrollment growth and they see less private student lending risk. Shares were upgraded to Buy from Neutral.
  • BMC Software (NYSE: BMC) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman and added to the firm's Conviction Buy List.
  • Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill Lynch.
  • Covance (NYSE: CVD) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at First Analysis.
Analyst downgrades:
  • UBS downgraded Anglo American (NASDAQ: AAUK) to Neutral from Buy and added shares to its Short-term Sell list citing the significant reduction in 2009 coal prices and estimates.
  • Friedman Billings cut Century Aluminum (NASDAQ: CENX) to Market Perform from Outperform and lowered its target to $8 from $18 shares to reflect a lowered aluminum price forecast and financing concerns.
  • Bernstein downgraded eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) to Market Perform from Outperform citing recent share performances and the difficult macro environment.
  • CommVault (NASDAQ: CVLT) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman and added to the Conviction Buy List.
  • TomoTherapy (NASDAQ: TOMO) was cut to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair.
  • Boston Properties (NYSE: BXP) was lowered to Neutral from Buy at UBS.
Analyst initiations:
  • Morgan Keegan initiated Brinker (NYSE: EAT) with a Market Perform citing the difficult macro economy, relative debt levels and the competitive environment.
  • Brookdale Senior Living (NYSE: BKD) was initiated at Oppenheimer with an Outperform rating and $12 target. The firm expects the company to benefit from growing demand for higher acuity assisted living.
  • Baird initiated Healthcare Realty (NYSE: HR) with an Underperform rating and $19 target citing the company's premium valuation vs. the group.
  • UBS initiated Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE), Priceline (NASDAQ: PCLN), and Orbitz Worldwide (NYSE: OWW) with Neutral ratings citing the difficult near-term demand environment.
  • FedEx (NYSE: FDX) was started at Jesup & Lamont with a Hold rating.

Cheap Stocks: BMC Software

This post is part of a series featuring bargain stocks that are worth a look now. See more Cheap Stocks.

Tech stocks are taking a beating lately, as more and more companies scale back on their IT spending. While it may be foolhardy to bet on any significant short-term rallies for this struggling group, there's probably no better time than the present to dive into a long-term play. With BMC Software (NYSE: BMC) approaching key support levels, this is one stock worth looking into.

While many major technology concerns have provided weak or slashed forecasts for the coming quarters (Cisco, anyone?), BMC recently raised its fiscal 2008 earnings guidance. The company now expects fiscal-year profits of $2.15 to $2.25 per share, up from its previous outlook of $2.10 to $2.20 per share. BMC also exceeded second-quarter profit expectations in its October 30 report -- overall, this is one tech name that's no slouch in the earnings department.

With BMC holding up strong in a tough environment, it's no wonder that Raymond James analyst Michael Turits recently upgraded the shares from Outperform to Strong Buy. "We expect ... BMC to continue to benefit from the relative resilience of the mainframe market," Turits wrote in a note to clients, adding that "customers at the [CA World] conference indicated no slowing in mainframe capacity growth planning."

Continue reading Cheap Stocks: BMC Software

Analyst initiations: BMC, SMOD and ENTR

MOST NOTEWORTHY: BMC Software, Smart Modular and Entropic Comm were today's noteworthy initiations:
  • Stanford initiated BMC Software (NYSE: BMC) with a Buy rating and $45 target. The firm highlights the company's broad product portfolio and configuration management database leadership and thinks margin expansion should continue.
  • ThinkPanmure assumed Smart Modular (NASDAQ: SMOD) with an Accumulate rating and $5.50 target. The firm expects better DRAM pricing but expects SMOD to experience some headwinds with Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) losing share in the server market.
  • Broadpoint expects Entropic Comm (NASDAQ: ENTR) to benefit from the adoption of applications that allow video through numerous devices, especially high definition and data content. Shares were started with a Buy rating and $6 target.
OTHER INITIATIONS:

Early analyst calls (HOV) (BK)

UBS has upgraded Hovnanian (NYSE:HOV) to "neutral" from "sell," according to Briefing.com. The news service also reports that Oppenheimer raised its price target for Verisign (NASDAQ:VRSN) to $42.

Lehman Brothers affirmed it "overweight" rating on Bank of New York (NYSE:BK) ahead of the company's annual meeting with brokers, according to the AP.

BMC Software (NYSE:BMC) started as "neutral" at UBS, according to Briefing.com.

Earnings highlights: Ford, Hormel, Limited Brands, Intuitive Surgical, PetSmart and others

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Additional earnings highlights:
Home Depot, Gap, Lenovo, Air France, Activision, Suntech and others
Hewlett-Packard, Target, Barnes & Noble, Campbell, Staples and others

Upcoming results to watch for include Borders (NYSE: BGP), Polo Ralph Lauren (NYSE: RL), TiVo (NASDAQ: TIVO), Big Lots (NYSE: BIG), Costco (NASDAQ: COST), Dell (NASDAQ: DELL), HJ Heinz (NYSE: HNZ), Sears (NASDAQ: SHLD), Lions Gate (NYSE: LGF), and Tiffany (NYSE: TIF).

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

BMC Software (BMC): Shares define bullish 'pennant' consolidation

BMC Software (NYSE: BMC) provides software used by large enterprises to manage computer systems and company services. Among the functions addressed are business process scheduling and integration, application and database performance, and recovery and storage management. Customers include Dell (NASDAQ: DELL), Home Depot (NYSE: HD) and Toyota Motor (NYSE: TM).

The company surprised investors last week, when it reported fiscal Q4 EPS of 63 cents and revenues of $466.9 million. Analysts had been looking for 51 cents and $460.3 million. In discussing the successful quarter, the CEO noted client interest in the unified architecture of the firm's suite. Management also guided FY09 EPS to $2.10-$2.20, versus consensus of $2.09. Oppenheimer and Lehman Brothers subsequently reiterated "buy" recommendations on the issue and boosted their price targets to $43.

Continue reading BMC Software (BMC): Shares define bullish 'pennant' consolidation

BMC blazes a deal for BladeLogic

In the summer of last year, BladeLogic (NASDAQ: BLOG) launched its IPO, which skyrocketed nearly 50%. It helped that one of its main rivals, Opsware, get a $1.65 billion buyout offer from Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ).

Well, BladeLogic has now agreed to sell out, although at a lower valuation: $800 million. The buyer is tech veteran, BMC Software (NYSE: BMC).

BladeLogic is focused on helping to deal with the mind-numbing complexities of data centers, helping with things like compliance, downtime, speed and so on. Keep in mind that there's about $140 billion spent on data centers per year.

At the same time, over the past few years, BMC has done a good job restructuring its company. Now it's in a position to ramp growth – and BladeLogic will be a nice boost. In fiscal Q1, the company's revenues spiked 68% to $21.4 million.

Although, Wall Street is skeptical. In today's trading, BMC's stock is down 7% to $31.31.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates DealProfiles.com.

Analyst upgrades: BMC, CYNO and ADCT

MOST NOTEWORTHY: BMC Software, Cynosure and ADC Telecomm were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Credit Suisse upgraded BMC Software (NYSE: BMC) to Outperform from Neutral based on an improving pricing environment for mainframe software, growth expectations, and upcoming release of IBM (NYSE: IBM) mainframe hardware.
  • Cynosure (NASDAQ: CYNO) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup. The firm upgraded shares after yesterday's sell-off as their checks suggest no notable reduction in demand in Q4.
  • Merriman upgraded shares of ADC Telecommincations (NASDAQ: ADCT) to Buy from Neutral on the company's strong margin performance in Q4, prospects for growth and attractive valuation.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Before the bell: Futures flat ahead of Fed announcement

Following the Dow's steepest one-day climb in four years, stock futures were flat Tuesday ahead of the Federal Reserve's 2:15 p.m. decision on interest rates. The Fed is expected to maintain its benchmark federal funds rate at 5.25%.

Also Tuesday morning, the Labor Department will report on second-quarter productivity and costs; moderated labor costs and increased productivity are expected.

Companies reporting earnings today include Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO), TXU Corp. (NYSE: TXU), and Harrah's Entertainment (NYSE: HET). Cisco is expected to match earnings estimates of 35 cents a share.

Overseas, the Nikkei eked out a 0.04% rise to close at 16,921.77, while the FTSE 100 rallied following Wall Street's gains Monday.

Corporate news

Bear Stearns
(NYSE: BSC) shares advanced overseas on a report from London that CEO Jimmy Cayne called other financial executives to assure them of BSC's fiscal health.

Reporting earnings following Monday's close, software maker BMC (NYSE: BMC) nearly doubled its first-quarter profits from last year and raised estimates for the year.

Also late Monday, Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) said it has enough drugs in development to meet its goal of tripling its portfolio of final-trial phase products by 2009.

Analyst upgrades 7-12-07: ISCA, LMT, MRK and STX

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Today's noteworthy upgrades included Lockheed Martin (LMT), Raytheon (RTN), Hartford Financial (HIG), Seagate Technology (STX) and CommScope (CTV):
  • JP Morgan upgraded two defense stocks today: Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight on valuation;
  • Raytheon (NYSE: RTN) was raised to Overweight from Neutral, with expectations for the company to post above average organic growth driven by strong bookings. The firm also raised Raytheon's 2008 EPS estimate to $3.80 from $3.60, well above the consensus estimate.
  • AG Edwards believes Hartford Financial's (NYSE: HIG) recent weakness has created a buying opportunity and upgraded shares to Buy from Hold.
  • Seagate (NYSE: STX) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Brean Murray as checks indicate a healthy seasonal uptick in demand for drives and PCs in 2H07.
  • CommScope (NYSE: CTV) was Upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Morgan Keegan based on higher 2007 and 2008 expectations along with accretion from the Andrew acquisition...
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • BMC Software (NYSE: BMC) was upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse.
  • Friedman Billings raised Kimco Realty (NYSE: KIM) to Outperform from Market Perform.
  • Merck (NYSE: MRK) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at AG Edwards.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Market highlights for next week: Markets closed Monday

Here is a quick look at this upcoming holiday shortened week.

Monday May 28
  • Markets closed for Memorial Day holiday.
  • PDUFA date for MedImmune Inc's (NASDAQ: MEDI) sBLA for CAIV-T.
Tuesday May 29
Wednesday May 30
Thursday May 31
Friday June 1

Analyst upgrades 5-25-07: GSK, LNVGY, RFMD and TWB

MOST NOTEWORTHY: GlaxoSmithKline plc (GSK), RF Micro Devices, Inc (RFMD), BMC Software, Inc (BMC) and Tween Brands Inc (TWB) were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Jefferies upgraded shares of RF Micro Devices (NASDAQ: RFMD) to Buy from Hold and raised the target to $9.00 from $7.00 after their channel checks indicated RFMD's business has improved since its last earnings call.
  • Cowen raised BMC Software (NYSE: BMC) to Neutral from Underperform citing valuation and improvements in the cash flow for their upgrade.
  • Susquehanna upgraded Tween Brands (NYSE: TWB) to Positive from Neutral based on Justice's performance and recent buyback activity...
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Lenovo Group Ltd (OTC: LNVGY) was upgraded at Credit Suisse to Neutral from Underperform; JP Morgan upgraded Lenovo to Overweight from Neutral.
  • Goldman upgraded CDI Corp (NYSE: CDI) to Buy from Neutral.
Analyst summaries provided by TheFlyOnTheWall.com (subscription required).

Newspaper wrap-up 1-19-07: UPS may cancel Airbus order

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • The Wall Street Journal's (subscription required) "Heard on the Street" column focused on companies that would be hurt the most by the price of oil continuing to fall. The article mentioned Hess Corp (NYSE: HES) and Suncor Energy (NYSE: SU), along with alternative energy companies Aventine Renewable Energy Holdings (NYSE: AVR), Pacific Ethanol (NASDAQ: PEIX) and VeraSun Energy (NYSE: VSE).
OTHER PAPERS:
  • French newspaper Les Echoes reported that United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) may cancel its order for 10 Airbus A380s, which could create an opportunity for Boeing (NYSE: BA).
  • Light Reading reported that Tellab's (NASDAQ: TLAB) CTO Thomas Gruenwald will leave the company at the end of this week.
  • Investor's Business Daily's "New America" column mentioned BMC Software (NYSE: BMC) positively.
  • BusinessWeek's "Inside Wall Street" column mentioned Volcano (NASDAQ: VOLC), UCBH Holdings (NASDAQ: UCBH) and US Airways Group (NYSE: LCC) positively.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-7.338,273.41
NASDAQ-19.411,777.11
S&P 500-3.83892.59

Last updated: July 06, 2009: 03:43 PM

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