Analyst Upgrades

• Cree (CREE) and Rubicon Technology (RBCN) to buy from neutral at Merriman.
• Children's Place (PLCE) to outperform from market perform at BMO Capital.
• Lockheed Martin (LMT) to neutral from underperform at BofA/Merrill.
• Copano Energy (CPNO) to outperform from market perform at Morgan Keegan.
• Motorola Mobility (MMI) to neutral from reduce at Nomura.
• Parker-Hannifin (PH) to buy from hold at KeyBanc.
• Akamai (AKAM), ShoreTel (SHOR), AMB Property (AMB) and ProLogis (PLD) to buy from hold at Stifel Nicolaus.

Analyst Upgrades

• Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) to positive from neutral at Susquehanna.
• tw telecom (TWTC) to outperform from neutral at Cowen.
• Agree Realty (ADC) to buy from neutral at Janney Capital.
• Millicom (MICC) to buy from neutral at Nomura.
• BioMed Realty (BMR) to outperform from market perform at FBR Capital.
• Realty Income (O) to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.

BMC Software (BMC) rallied to a ten-year high Thursday. January 50 call options were active with implied volatility at 29. February call option implied volatility at 31, below its 26-week average of 33, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Monsanto (MON) said orders are on track for Genuity Reduced-Refuge family of corn products and Genuity Roundup Ready 2 Yield Soybeans, according to slides the company presented at a conference Thursday. The company is expected to report first quarter results on January 6. January call option implied volatility is at 29; April is at 31, below its 26-week average of 34, according to Track Data. Large option volume suggests decreasing price movement.

Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Analyst Upgrades

• Google (GOOG) to outperform from neutral at Wedbush.
• Nike (NKE) to buy from neutral at UBS.
• Apollo Group (APOL) to market perform from underperform at FBR Capital.
• JDSU (JDSU) to overweight from neutral at Piper Jaffray.
• NetApp (NTAP) to overweight from equal weight and Verigy (VRGY) to equal weight from underweight at Barclays.
• RSC Holdings (RRR) to outperform from neutral at RW Baird.
• Exelon (EXC) to buy from hold at Jefferies.
• Aon (AON) and Willis Group (WSH) to outperform from market perform at Keefe Bruyette.
• BMC Software (BMC) to outperform from neutral at Cowen.

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) closed up $3.44 to $42.03 on better-than-expected same-store sales. Call option volume of 18K contracts compares to put volume of 16K contracts. October put option implied volatility is at 43, November and January is at 46, near its 26-week average, according to Track Data, indicating non-directional larger price movement.

Adobe (ADBE) options active and volatility increases as shares rally 11%.

BMC Software (BMC) calls active as shares rally 6% to a ten-year high.

CBOE Volatility Index-VIX up 7 cents to $21.56 into September employment report.

Options Update is by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Analyst Upgrades

• FBR Capital upgraded Pioneer Natural (PXD) to outperform from market perform and raised its price target for shares to $85 from $60. The firm upgraded shares on expectations that returns from the company's Spraberry field will increase materially.
• Baird upgraded Acroda Therapeutics (ACOR) to outperform from neutral based on valuation and a new survey that indicates a strong uptake for Ampyra and improvements on the reimbursement front. The firm has a $40 target on the stock.
• Morgan Stanley upgraded Nokia (NOK) to overweight from underweight based on checks that indicate strong orders and less than expected discounting for its upcoming N8 smartphone.
• GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) and British American Tobacco (BTI) were upgraded to buy from neutral at BofA/Merrill.
• Quality Systems (QSII) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at William Blair.
• Siemens (SI) was upgraded to buy from neutral at UBS.

Analyst Upgrades

• TD Newcrest upgraded Agrium (AGU) to action list buy from hold based on a higher valuation supported by BHP's (BHP) bid for Potash (POT). The firm raised its price target for Agrium to $95 from $76.
• Wells Fargo upgraded Weingarten Realty (WRI) to outperform from market perform, citing valuation and stronger retail occupancy.
• Deutsche Bank upgraded Aegon (AEG) to buy from hold after the company won European Union approval for its recapitalization using state aid.
• HCP Inc. (HCP) was upgraded to buy from hold at Argus.
• MedAssets (MDAS) was upgraded to buy from accumulate at Madison Williams.
• BreitBurn Energy (BBEP) was upgraded to outperform from sector perform at RBC Capital.

Analyst Upgrades

• BMO Capital upgraded EOG Resources (EOG) to market perform from underperform. The firm has a $100 target on the stock.
• Morgan Joseph upgraded Glimcher Realty (GRT) to buy from neutral with a $6.50 target. The firm believes the company has solved most of its liquidity problems while its dividend yield is very attractive.
• Citigroup upgraded AmerisourceBergen (ABC) to buy from hold.
• Lincoln Electric (LECO) was upgraded to gradually accumulate from hold at Soleil.
• BMC Software (BMC) was upgraded to outperform from neutral at Credit Suisse.
• Mercer (MERC) was upgraded to outperform from market perform at Raymond James.

This post is part of a special report, Top Picks for 2010, the 27th annual survey in which TheStockAdvisors.com asks the nation's leading advisors for their single favorite stock for the new year. See all 80 stocks listed here.

Dow Theory Forecasts is one of the most venerable players in the financial newsletter community; the service has been published continuously for well over five decades.

Editor Richard Moroney looks to BMC Software (BMC) as his top pick for 2010. He explains, "BMC develops products that run corporate data centers, which house critical computer systems."

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says these stocks have become too expensive without takeovers and a more robust economy.

One after another after another, these software charts are amazing. And, I might add, a bit scary. How did McAfee (NYSE: MFE) (Cramer's Take) make that kind of move just on security software? Didn't Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) (Cramer's Take) just say -- admittedly for the 4 millionth time -- that it was going to give away free anti-virus software? Or Citrix (NASDAQ: CTXS) (Cramer's Take)? What's that all about? How could it return to those levels?

There were rumors of a Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) (Cramer's Take) takeover a week or two ago, and, amazingly, when it didn't come true, the stock hung in.

Analyst upgrades:

• Merriman upgraded shares of Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) to Neutral from Sell as they believe consensus estimates for Q4 and FY09 are no longer too high. In addition, the firm believes Google's slowing capex spend will improve margins and their recent channel checks indicate the company's ad coverage has increased significantly during Q4.
  
• Oppenheimer upgraded shares of Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) to Outperform from Perform following yesterday's disclosures regarding Steve Jobs' health. The firm has a $135 price target on Apple shares.
  
• UBS upgraded BMC Software (NYSE: BMC) to Buy from Neutral and raised its target to $31 from $28 citing easier booking comps in the March quarter.
• YRC Worldwide (NASDAQ: YRCW) was raised to Market Perform from Underperform at Wachovia.
  
• Goldman removed Hewitt (NYSE: HEW) from its Conviction Sell List.

Analyst downgrades:

• Stephens downgraded Emergency Medical Services (NYSE: EMS) to Equal Weight from Overweight on valuation, as they believe the stock is fairly valued at current levels. The firm maintains a $39 price target.
  
• Merriman downgraded Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) to Neutral from Buy after Super Micro pre-announced a Q2 miss to reflect the company's "challenging" outlook.
  
• Baird downgraded Celgene (NASDAQ: CELG) to Neutral from Outperform citing Revlimid growth concerns following their most recent survey and potential pressures on the European business and on Thalomid.
• Medtronic (NYSE: MDT) was lowered to Market Perform from Outperform at Leerink.
  
• Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE) was cut at Goldman to Neutral from Buy.
  
• Devon Energy (NYSE: DVN) was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays.

Analyst initiations:

• Merriman believes Itron (NASDAQ: ITRI) is well-positioned to benefit from the upgrade to Advanced Metering Infrastructure by tier one utilities and finds the stock attractively valued. Shares were initiated with a Neutral rating.
  
• Oppenheimer assumed Jones Lang LaSalle (NYSE: JLL) with a Perform rating and expects the company's growth to slow in 2009 given global credit concerns and the economic slowdown.
  
• Citigroup started Telmex (NYSE: TMX) with a Sell rating and $15 target. The firm believes the company's inability to offer 3-play services could lead to accelerated market share loss in 2009.
• Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) was initiated at Janney Montgomery with a Neutral rating and $31 fair value estimate.
  
• Arthur J. Gallagher (NYSE: AJG) was initiated with a Neutral rating at Piper Jaffray.
  
• Jesup & Lamont assumed UTi Worldwide (NASDAQ: UTIW) with a Buy rating and $18 target.

Analyst upgrades:

• Jefferies upgraded shares of Alkermes (NASDAQ: ALKS) to Overweight from Neutral on valuation, as they believe the current share price undervalues Risperdal Consta and provides little to no value for other pipeline drugs.
  
• JP Morgan upgraded ASML Holding (NASDAQ: ASML) to Buy from Hold following the company's Q1 results, as they believe further estimate reductions are unlikely.
  
• UBS expects ITT Educational (NYSE: ESI) to benefit from strong enrollment growth and they see less private student lending risk. Shares were upgraded to Buy from Neutral.
• BMC Software (NYSE: BMC) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman and added to the firm's Conviction Buy List.
  
• Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merrill Lynch.
  
• Covance (NYSE: CVD) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight at First Analysis.

Analyst downgrades:

• UBS downgraded Anglo American (NASDAQ: AAUK) to Neutral from Buy and added shares to its Short-term Sell list citing the significant reduction in 2009 coal prices and estimates.
  
• Friedman Billings cut Century Aluminum (NASDAQ: CENX) to Market Perform from Outperform and lowered its target to $8 from $18 shares to reflect a lowered aluminum price forecast and financing concerns.
  
• Bernstein downgraded eBay (NASDAQ: EBAY) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) to Market Perform from Outperform citing recent share performances and the difficult macro environment.
• CommVault (NASDAQ: CVLT) was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman and added to the Conviction Buy List.
  
• TomoTherapy (NASDAQ: TOMO) was cut to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair.
  
• Boston Properties (NYSE: BXP) was lowered to Neutral from Buy at UBS.

Analyst initiations:

• Morgan Keegan initiated Brinker (NYSE: EAT) with a Market Perform citing the difficult macro economy, relative debt levels and the competitive environment.
  
• Brookdale Senior Living (NYSE: BKD) was initiated at Oppenheimer with an Outperform rating and $12 target. The firm expects the company to benefit from growing demand for higher acuity assisted living.
  
• Baird initiated Healthcare Realty (NYSE: HR) with an Underperform rating and $19 target citing the company's premium valuation vs. the group.
• UBS initiated Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE), Priceline (NASDAQ: PCLN), and Orbitz Worldwide (NYSE: OWW) with Neutral ratings citing the difficult near-term demand environment.
  
• FedEx (NYSE: FDX) was started at Jesup & Lamont with a Hold rating.

This post is part of a series featuring bargain stocks that are worth a look now. See more Cheap Stocks.

Tech stocks are taking a beating lately, as more and more companies scale back on their IT spending. While it may be foolhardy to bet on any significant short-term rallies for this struggling group, there's probably no better time than the present to dive into a long-term play. With BMC Software (NYSE: BMC) approaching key support levels, this is one stock worth looking into.

While many major technology concerns have provided weak or slashed forecasts for the coming quarters (Cisco, anyone?), BMC recently raised its fiscal 2008 earnings guidance. The company now expects fiscal-year profits of $2.15 to $2.25 per share, up from its previous outlook of $2.10 to $2.20 per share. BMC also exceeded second-quarter profit expectations in its October 30 report -- overall, this is one tech name that's no slouch in the earnings department.

With BMC holding up strong in a tough environment, it's no wonder that Raymond James analyst Michael Turits recently upgraded the shares from Outperform to Strong Buy. "We expect ... BMC to continue to benefit from the relative resilience of the mainframe market," Turits wrote in a note to clients, adding that "customers at the [CA World] conference indicated no slowing in mainframe capacity growth planning."

MOST NOTEWORTHY: BMC Software, Smart Modular and Entropic Comm were today's noteworthy initiations:

• Stanford initiated BMC Software (NYSE: BMC) with a Buy rating and $45 target. The firm highlights the company's broad product portfolio and configuration management database leadership and thinks margin expansion should continue.
  
• ThinkPanmure assumed Smart Modular (NASDAQ: SMOD) with an Accumulate rating and $5.50 target. The firm expects better DRAM pricing but expects SMOD to experience some headwinds with Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) losing share in the server market.
  
• Broadpoint expects Entropic Comm (NASDAQ: ENTR) to benefit from the adoption of applications that allow video through numerous devices, especially high definition and data content. Shares were started with a Buy rating and $6 target.

OTHER INITIATIONS:

• Banc of America initiated General Dynamics (NYSE: GD), Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) with Buy ratings and targets of $100, $120 and $80, respectively.
  
• Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE) was initiated with a Buy rating and $150 target at UBS.
  
• Intrepid Potash (NYSE: IPI) was assumed with a Buy rating at Merrill Lynch.

UBS has upgraded Hovnanian (NYSE:HOV) to "neutral" from "sell," according to Briefing.com. The news service also reports that Oppenheimer raised its price target for Verisign (NASDAQ:VRSN) to $42.

Lehman Brothers affirmed it "overweight" rating on Bank of New York (NYSE:BK) ahead of the company's annual meeting with brokers, according to the AP.

BMC Software (NYSE:BMC) started as "neutral" at UBS, according to Briefing.com.