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Top resource ideas: Bet on Buenaventura (BVN)

This article is part of a 20 article special report on "Metals, miners and money".

"Although gold is probably due to retrace some, bullion still looks very strong," says Jack Adamo's Insiders Plus. Here, he looks at Compania de Minas Buenaventura (NYSE: BVN).

"Open interest in gold futures, which measures the current size of bets made by futures traders, is 34% lower than it was in May of 2006, which was the last time we touched a speculative price peak. That suggests that much of this crowd is still on the sidelines. When they come rushing back in, the stocks can move up very fast."

The advisor continues, "The cheapest by far of all our gold stocks is still Compania de Minas Buenaventura. Even being up 53% year-to-date, it's selling at 15-times this year's expected earnings, with year end only three months away. It's unlikely earnings will miss expectations this late in the year.

"Of course, expectations a year out are much less reliable, but if current analysts' estimates are close, the stock is a screaming bargain. With '08 estimates of $3.59 a share, the stock is selling at 11-times next year's earnings, and has an earnings growth rate of 37%. Price/earnings-to-growth ratios like that make me salivate.

"If you've not filled your gold positions, here's your chance. I don't expect another opportunity for at least four months. Gold is usually strong going into the holiday season, and sometimes all the way into January. Buy Buenaventura."

Each day, Steven Halpern's TheStockAdvisors.com website features the latest investment commentary and favorite stock picks of the nation's leading financial newsletter advisors.

Option update: Gold options active as hedgers adjust to $700 gold

Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM) call volume & implied volatility elevated as gold above $704. NEM, the world's largest non-hedged gold producer, is recently trading up $1.95 to $44.25. Gold is up 1.95% to $704.20 according to Bloomberg. NEM call option volume of 71,210 contracts compares to put volume of 15,428 contracts according to Track Data. NEM September option implied volatility of 36 is above its 26-week average of 29 according to Track Data, suggesting larger price risks.

Barrick Gold (NYSE:ABX) calls active; volatility elevated on hedging as gold above $700. ABX a gold mining company is recently up $2.58 to $35.98. ABX has a market cap of $31 billion. ABX call option volume of 37,967 contracts compares to put volume of 11,279 contracts according to Track Data. ABX September option implied volatility of 38 is above its 26-week average of 29 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.

Buenaventura (NYSE::BVN) implied volatility elevated; BVN operates three gold & silver mines in Peru and also has controlling interests in four mining companies as well as a majority interest in several other mining companies in Peru. BVN is recently up $3.83 to $42.42. BVN September option implied volatility of 48 is above its 26-week average of 37 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.


Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

Analyst upgrades 6-06-07: MCO, NGS; BAS and CPX

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Oil and gas services companies, mining companies and Moody's Corporation (NYSE: MCO) were today's noteworthy upgrades:
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Inverness Medical Innovations Inc (AMEX: IMA) was upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel Nicolaus.
  • Credit Suisse upgraded shares of Johnson Controls Inc (NYSE: JCI) to Outperform from Neutral, citing growth outlook in the company's building efficiency business.
  • Allianz SE (NYSE: AZ) was upgraded to Buy from Add at WestLB on valuation and the company's strong Q1 results.

Adamo: Mining for value

With a penchant for following insider buying, Jack Adamo takes a fundamental long-term approach to investing. In his Insider Plus newsletter, he has been a fan of mining companies, and sees recent price weakness as a reason to add to positions in Meridian Gold (NYSE:MDG) and Compania de Minas Buenaventura (NYSE:BVN).

His proprietary indicators, which follow patterns of insider buying and selling, had been forecasting a setback for metals; as such, he did not view the recent pullback as a surprise. And with the "speculative fever" in the gold sector having cooled, he is now more comfortable recommending mining positions.

One favorite is Meridian Gold, which he notes pulled back nearly 16% on what he cites as no news except a broker downgrade from Market Outperform to Market Perform. He notes, "This is hardly cause for panic."

"Meridian is back within our buy range now," he says. "If you don't own the stock, I'd ease in by buying a half position at this time, and waiting to see what the market does. Still, it's a good long-term buy at this price, with the stock down 33% from its 52-week high."

Continue reading Adamo: Mining for value

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Last updated: December 02, 2008: 11:03 AM

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