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Comfort Zone Investing: Checked your PEG lately?

Want to know if your stock is overpriced, maybe ready to take a breather? Then check its PEG. That's Price to Earnings to Growth, or the P/E ratio divided by the growth rate of a company's earnings. It's a quick and easy way to see if your stock may be ahead of its earnings power. It's also one measure a lot of momentum investors rely on as a screening tool.

If a stock's P/E ratio is well above its growth rate, they believe the stock is overpriced and won't touch it. But if the p/e ratio is well below the stock's growth rate, it could signal a bargain. It helps to know your stock's PEG.

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Checked your PEG lately?

The week in preview: Seeking more signs of economic stability

Last week's Fed Beige Book report and GDP numbers suggested that the economy may be stabilizing, and this coming week will bring plenty of economic data to confirm or deny that suggestion. On the schedule are consumer credit, construction spending, factory orders, and pending home sales for June, the employment situation, the Import Price Index, and new motor vehicle sales for July, as well as the ISM Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing Indexes for July.

The week will also bring quarterly reports from home builders Beazer Homes USA Inc. (NYSE: BZH), D.R. Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI), and Pulte Homes Inc. (NYSE: PHM). Yet again, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect all three to have narrowed their losses in the most recent quarter. However, they've all tended to post deeper-than-expected losses in recent quarters as well. Analysts also expect to see their revenue down 45% or more for the past quarter. They forecast long-term EPS growth of 7% or more, but none of these homebuilders has a First Call consensus buy recommendation, not surprisingly. Short interest is falling off for Beazer and D.R. Horton, and D.R. Horton and Pulte have been reporting positive cash flow from operations, but all three of them said they had more long-term debt than cash in hand last time around. Mortgage insurer PMI Group Inc. (NYSE: PMI) is likewise expected to report that it narrowed its second-quarter loss.

Continue reading The week in preview: Seeking more signs of economic stability

Beazer Homes USA will pay victims $50 million

On Wednesday, federal investigators filed mortgage and accounting fraud charges against Beazer Homes USA (NYSE: BZH). The homebuilder will be able to escape prosecution because it agreed to pay $50 million to victims and to accept responsibility for its improper actions.

Beazer found itself charged thanks to its participation in a scheme designed to fraudulently increase its profits and sell homes. Reportedly, the company also participated in an accounting scheme that was designed to "smooth earnings." Thanks to these schemes, homebuyers defaulted on their loans and some neighborhoods saw home values plummet thanks to loan defaults. State and federal investigators have scrutinized Beazer since March 2007, finding that the company's "aggressive sales tactics" contributed to an "unusually high foreclosure rate in many of its local starter-home communities."

Continue reading Beazer Homes USA will pay victims $50 million

Comfort Zone Investing: Is it too late ... or too early to buy stocks?

The stock market, as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, sharply rebounded from its low of 6440 in March of this year. Currently, as this is written, the notable index is hovering around 8400. That's an increase of 30%. Not bad for two months of trading. While the average is made up of only 30 stocks, those 30 stocks are some of the best. There are also some real losers, such as General Motors (NYSE: GM) and Citigroup (NYSE: C). But for the most part, the index contains the strongest industries with some of the strongest stocks. With that kind of recovery already in place, is it too late to buy stocks or is this just the start of a major rally?

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Is it too late ... or too early to buy stocks?

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Make sure to dot the I's and cross the T's

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says if a plan to sell bad assets isn't watertight, it won't float in this era of intense scrutiny.

Does the private market have any appetite for bad assets? Does it make sense that investors join in the government to buy them?

Yes, if there is price discovery and financing; no, if it doesn't know their worth and can't get loans to buy the stuff.

Many people who don't know the biz often think that these purchases involve actual cash. They don't. The sidelined money wants financing to buy the stuff to magnify the returns. I know instinctively people hear "leverage" these days and don't want to play. Forget about it -- the hedge funds who have the ability to buy this stuff aren't going to touch it unless they can borrow against it.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Make sure to dot the I's and cross the T's

The week in preview: Coke versus Pepsi

It's about that time again: Pepsi vs. Coke. No, not another taste test or another Battle of the Brands. It's time for the next quarterly results from these two soft drink titans.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters anticipate that PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE: PEP), global beverage and snack food giant, will report fourth-quarter earnings this week that are 9.1% higher that a year ago, or $0.88 per share. Revenue is expected to total $12.8 billion, which is 3.9% higher than last year. For the full year, the profit is expected to be $3.67 per share on revenue of $43.4 billion, up from $3.38 per share on $39.5 billion in 2007. PepsiCo's earnings met or beat estimates in four of the past five quarters, but missed by only two cents per share in the third quarter. The consensus recommendation of analysts remains to buy PEP. The share price fell to a 52-week low in January and is now 24.4% lower than it was a year ago. During the fourth quarter, PepsiCo declared a $0.42 per share quarterly dividend, agreed to acquire a Spitz International, and announced investments in China and Mexico.

Continue reading The week in preview: Coke versus Pepsi

U.S. stimulus plan may give home builders a lift

One of the programs which may come with the new economic stimulus package is a big tax credit for people who buy new homes. It would help potential buyers across almost every income class, which is not what was being contemplated a few days ago. According to Bloomberg, "By replacing a $7,500 tax credit for first-time homebuyers earning less than $150,000 with a $15,000 break for all income groups as part of the economic stimulus package, senators effectively are encouraging purchases by higher-income households with a reduced risk of default."

Last week, Moody's said it was reviewing debt ratings on four home builders, including Beazer (NYSE: BZH) and Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV), for downgrades. That did not do the shareholder in the companies any favors.

Continue reading U.S. stimulus plan may give home builders a lift

New data: No recovery in home-building stocks

Homeowners lost $3.3 trillion in the value of their houses last year. A report from Zillow.com, picked up by Bloomberg, said that national home prices dropped 11.6% compared to 2007.

That makes stocks like Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV) and Beazer (NYSE: BZH) sells, even at current depressed levels. HOV shares are down to $1.64 from a 52-week high of $13.50. Beazer is off from a high of $12.40 to $0.98. The company could even face delisting over the next year if it cannot get its share price up.

There is a temptation to think that home-building stocks are so inexpensive that, if the companies can drop inventory prices enough, they can start to improve sales, even if the margins on each home sold are poor. But it is not that simple.

Continue reading New data: No recovery in home-building stocks

Earnings highlights: Sears, GE, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, Staples and others

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

Continue reading Earnings highlights: Sears, GE, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, Staples and others

Stocks in the news: GM, F, SHLD, GS, SPLS, BZH, JPM, PALM, GE, BA (update)

General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM), Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) and Chrysler plan to present their plan to Congress today as they ask for $25 billion of help. They would refinance their debt, cut executive pay, seek concessions from workers and find other ways of reviving their staggering companies. Meanwhile, autmakers will also release November sales and analysts expect them to post large declines of between 20-40%. GM shares rose 10% in pre-market trade and Ford's added 5.1% (8:02 am). By around 11:42, GM shares rose 6.5% and Ford's 10.2%.

Sears Holdings Corp. (NASDAQ: SHLD) reported a much wider-than-expected third-quarter loss due to an 8% decline in sales and store closing charges. Excluding the charges, Sears reported a loss of 90 cents per share in the latest period. Analysts had expected, according to Thomson Reuters, a loss of 49 cents per share. The company did announce a $500 million stock buyback. By around 11:42 SHLD shares soared 17.9%.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYTSE: GS), known so far for being able to mostly dodge most of its rivals' problems, may now, according to industry insiders The Wall Street Journal quotes, report a net loss of as much as $2 billion for its quarter ended Nov. 28 -- its first loss as a public company. Fourth-quarter loss could be as much as $5 a share, five times the current analyst consensus. GS shares trade 1% lower in premarket. By around 11:42 Goldman shares declined 2.2%.

Continue reading Stocks in the news: GM, F, SHLD, GS, SPLS, BZH, JPM, PALM, GE, BA (update)

The week in preview: Canadian banks, homebuilders, Sears and food producers

Last week, Bank of Montreal (NYSE: BMO), one of Canada's oldest and largest banks, reported growth in its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings. But it may be the only one that does, as at least two of the Canadian banks scheduled to report fourth-quarter numbers this week have already released preliminary results that warn of lower earnings due to debt write-downs and trading losses.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect Toronto-based Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE: CM) to post earnings 42.6% lower than a year ago, or $1.28 per share. CIBC beat estimates by a penny in the third quarter, but missed by a penny in the period before that. The bank faces a class-action lawsuit related to investments in collateralized debt obligations consisting of U.S. subprime mortgages. Shares have climbed 20.7% from a recent 52-week low of $39.52, but are down 37.8% in the past three months.

Toronto Dominion Bank (NYSE: TD), Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE: BNS), and Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY) are expected to report more modest earnings declines of $1.01 per share, $0.73 per share, and $0.83 per share, respectively. All three Toronto-based banks topped estimates in the third quarter. Toronto Dominion and RBC have recently announced plans to offer shares in order to raise capital. Toronto Dominion and Scotiabank have been trading near 52-week lows, and their share prices are down around 39% in the past three months. But only Toronto Dominion has a consensus buy recommendation from analysts.

Continue reading The week in preview: Canadian banks, homebuilders, Sears and food producers

The week in preview: Expectations remain high for energy and oil

With a turn of the calendar page, we drift into the middle portion of the current quarter, but the earnings season rolls on. Among the many companies scheduled to report quarterly results this coming week are Time Warner Inc. (NYSE: TWX), Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), News Corp. (NYSE: NWS), and Whole Foods Market International (NASDAQ: WFMI). Let's take a look at which companies Wall Street analysts are expecting to be among the top earnings gainers and decliners this week.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect the following to report strong earnings growth when compared to the same period of the previous year.

Continue reading The week in preview: Expectations remain high for energy and oil

Analyst upgrades: SGMS, COT and HWCC

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Scientific Games, COTT Corp and Houston Wire & Cable were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Morgan Stanley upgraded Scientific Games (NASDAQ: SGMS) to Overweight from Equal Weight as they believe investors are underestimating the company's opportunity in China and sees potential upside to estimates.
  • CIBC upgraded COTT Corp (NYSE: COT) to Sector Outperformer from Sector Performer citing the company's re-focus on Retail Brands and adding talent to the board.
  • William Blair raised Houston Wire & Cable (NASDAQ: HWCC) to Outperform from Market Perform on valuation and the company's continued large project growth.
OTHER UPGRADES:

Newspaper wrap-up: UAL Corp. to drop 70 more jets

MAJOR PAPERS:
  • In a move to help cut expenses and save on fuel prices, UAL Corporation (NASDAQ: UAUA), parent of United Airlines, will reduce its 460 airplane fleet by 70 jets. Not yet known is how may jobs will be affected, the Wall Street Journal reported.
  • In an all stock deal, J.M. Smucker Co. (NYSE: SJM) is expected to buy Folgers coffee from The Proctor & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) for an estimated $2B, according to the Wall Street Journal. Folgers, the best selling ground coffee in the U.S., has annual sales of about $1.6B.
  • The Financial Times reported that Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH) lost $500M-$700M on some of its hedging positions in Q2, which have contributed to a larger than expected loss that could result in the bank raising more capital by selling a stake to an outside investor. Lehman has begun negotiations with potential investors, including asset managers and Asian banks, sources said.
OTHER PAPERS:
  • According to sources, the Rocky Mountain News reported that troubled home builder Beazer Homes USA Inc (NYSE: BZH) is pulling out of Colorado. Beazer, which is being investigated for mortgage fraud by several government agencies, has built homes in the suburbs of Denver and in Colorado Springs.

How to play the financial sector right now

Judging by my latest emails, everybody wants to know "how should I play the financial sector right now?" Let me make it real simple for you: avoid this entire sector at all costs. Don't buy them and don't short them, at least not yet. I've been repeating the same thing over and over since December, so while I know this will leave many unsatisfied, nothing much has changed in two months. In fact, the recent downgrade concerns over bond insurers MBIA (NYSE: MBI) and Ambac Financial (NYSE: ABK), student lender Sallie Mae (NYSE: SLM) and more importantly, prime mortgage lender Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM), means the situation has gone from bad to worse. Yes, we still risk economic disaster and that's when defaulting consumers could really hurt credit card companies American Express (NYSE: AXP) and Mastercard (NYSE: MA).

But thanks to the lack of transparency in this industry, there's simply no way to accurately judge how bad things really are and as I learned the hard way, accurately gaming disaster is next to impossible.

The good news is that if I had to guess, I'd say the chances of a true disaster are slim. Given that this seems to be an increasingly popular view, many of these financial stocks have been punished to the point of exhaustion. And just as I wouldn't buy them, I wouldn't short them here either. Despite the seemingly steady stream of negative news, the risk of further damage to shareholders and the overall market crashing all around them, broker stocks like Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Bear Sterns (NYSE: BSC), Merrill Lynch (NYSE: MER) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) have basically stopped going down. They haven't bounced much either, but the nation's three largest banks Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), Citigroup (NYSE: C) and JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM) have managed that feat, with all three bouncing considerably off their lows.

Continue reading How to play the financial sector right now

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-14.2810,318.16
NASDAQ-10.782,146.04
S&P 500-3.521,091.38

Last updated: November 23, 2009: 03:43 AM

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