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The economics of Social Security, Medicare, and you

With a sluggish economy, uncertain job growth, the most serious housing recession in more than 20 years, record oil and gasoline prices, ramping food costs, and a foreign policy landscape that's challenging (to say the least), decision makers in the United States, public and private, have more than enough to be concerned about, near-term, most analysts and citizens would agree.

Still, the above wasn't enough to prevent the annual "alarm sounding" about long-term concerns, such as Social Security and Medicare, the likes of which occurred again this week when the Social Security Trustees released their revised 2008 actuarial balance, which is a status report.

Moreover, while it's never prudent to ignore the tax and benefits implications of entitlement programs as large as Social Security and Medicare, it's important that investors and taxpayers also keep in mind one undeniable reality pertaining to statistical analysis of this sort. Namely, that we're dealing with longitudinal projections stretching out decades in which -- if any one of 20 variables (or more) change -- receipts and outlays would change substantially.

Continue reading The economics of Social Security, Medicare, and you

Stryker (SYK) is hardly striking out

In a choppy/consolidating (or perhaps worse) market, discretion dictates that one looks for companies where the demographics are running in the company's favor. Health care services in the United States is one such sector, and in this category, Stryker Corp (NYSE: SYK) is worth an evaluation.

Stryker (NYSE: SYK) is a leading provider of artificial hip, prosthetic knee and trauma products.As one might sense, orthopedic implant demand is robust and looks to remain so in the immediate years ahead, and probably beyond. Not only because the U.S.'s population is aging, but also the population in key international markets.

Analysts see sustained, double-digit earnings growth driven by the above demand and by new product launches. Further, Stryker also has modest pricing power, and analysts also see market share gains in selected business segments. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for SYK are $2.40/$2.88.

The risks? A negative change in Medicare reimbursement rates would hurt Stryker's results. The company also remains vulnerable to the emergence of a 'game changer' -- an innovative product launch by a competitor in one of its tech-intensive business lines.

The First Call mean rating for SYK is: Buy [22 firms]. Mean 2008 target: $82.00 [high: $90, low: $74].

Stock Analysis: Stryker is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than two years should be rewarded from SYK's shares. Sell / Stop Loss: $48.

Two keys to St. Jude Medical's success: systole, diastole

As the U.S. baby boom generation ages, demand for medical services is likely to increase, which is good news for St. Jude Medical.

St. Jude Medical (NYSE: STJ) develops and markets devices that treat cardiovascular disease and is also one of the world's leading manufacturers of mechanical heart valves.

St. Jude Medical's core business is its cardiac rhythm management division, which includes pacemakers, implantable cardioverter defibrillators [ICDs] and other equipment to regulate heart rhythm.

In general, analysts believe new product introductions and enhancements to existing products will allow STJ to increase its ICD market share in 2008, with overall company revenues advancing 13-17%. The Reuters F2007/F2008 EPS consensus estimates for STJ are $1.80/$2.09.

The risks? Analysts are keeping an eye on STJ's new product roll-out timetable. Further, negative changes to Medicare reimbursement rates would also hurt STJ's results.

The First Call mean rating for STJ is: Buy [25 firms]. Mean 2008 target: $47.00 [high: $54, low: $40].

Stock Analysis: St Jude Medical is a moderate-risk stock not suitable for low-risk investors. Investors with an investment horizon longer than two years should be rewarded from STJ's shares. Sell / Stop Loss if you were to purchase shares in this company: $28.

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Last updated: December 02, 2008: 11:10 AM

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