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Posts with tag BabyBoomers

Bet on T&A with J&J (JNJ)

Over the long holiday weekend, I had a chance to do some much needed reading. Given my vocation, sometimes I like to read articles that have little to do with the markets or finance as a way of recharging my batteries.

Of course, even when I partake in this guilty pleasure, there really is no way to truly escape. Somehow every story has a link or relationship to investing that I can utilize in my stock-picking mission.

This weekend, it was an article critical of a Shape magazine cover featuring a bikini-clad Faith Hill that has import for individual investors. In this particular article, the author does a really great job of highlighting the battle of fitness versus self-image.

How exactly did the 41-year-old country singer get that body? Was it photoshopped? How about plastic surgery? Is it really fair to present her in that way without the caveats, if any? The image alone implies that this woman, a busy professional with young children, managed to eat right and exercise in a way that created the image you now see on the magazine -- and that you can achieve yourself.

Wow, what pressure. The problem, of course, is that Photoshop was probably used in this instance, and if not Photoshop, then plastic surgery for certain.

So what does this have to do with investing?

This morning I awoke to the news that Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) announced a definitive agreement to purchase Mentor (NYSE: MNT), a leading supplier of medical products for the global aesthetic market -- namely, breast implants.

JNJ is paying $31 per share, or $1.07 billion in cash, for the company. The purchase price is about double what MNT fetched in the open market on Friday.

A premium price of that magnitude in this market environment is hard to believe, but I would not bet against JNJ here. They have their pulse on the market and a copy of Shape magazine on their desk. As the baby-boomer generation ages, plastic surgery looks to be a huge market. Fueled by images like those in Shape magazine, the market is more than worthy of a premium price.

The fact that MNT was valued at the purchase price as recently as June is telling. Yes, the economy is in recession, but the desire to improve self image is alive and well.

This is a brilliant deal for JNJ. The company enters a strong market with great demographics at a time of economic weakness. Taking advantage of a strong balance sheet and rich cash flow, JNJ is a winner in this economy.

Self-image issues aside, I like this deal.

Jamie Dlugosch is a contributor to InvestorPlace.com.

Will baby boomers bankrupt social security?

USA Today reports that at age 62, America's first baby boomer opted into Social Security today. The question for America is whether the 80 million people born between 1946 and 1964 will bankrupt Social Security by the time all of them are receiving their payments.

The caseload for so-called entitlements -- Social Security and Medicare -- is going to explode in the next 23 years. By 2030, Social Security's caseload will be 84 million people, up from 50 million today. Medicare will go from 44 million beneficiaries to 79 million. That will leave about two workers paying payroll taxes for every retiree. The tab is estimated at $50 trillion in future obligations over the next 75 years. Social Security will rise from 4% to 6% of the GDP, and Medicare will go from 3% to 11%.

The options are not good. Fixing Social Security solely with higher taxes or cuts in spending would mean a 16% increase in the payroll tax or a 13% cut in benefits. Medicare's needs would be far greater: a 122% payroll tax hike or a 51% reduction in spending, just for hospital care. Unfortunately, the longer we wait to fix the problem, the more it will cost.

However, if history is any guide, we'll wait until a crisis before we find the will to act. And that crisis will fall on the shoulders of the baby boomers' children and grandchildren -- not much of a legacy.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter.

Chasing Value: Will Harley-Davidson (HOG) fade like Levi Strauss?

Yesterday I posted Chasing Value: Harley-Davidson (HOG) looking on down the road and actually bought a few shares. Late in the day I received a comment from one of our frequent readers whose opinions I have grown to respect, although he can be a little harsh at times. This reader raised some interesting points I thought worth some consideration. He wrote:

  • "I don't like the stock. I see it as a luxury item for aging Baby Boomers. The ones who always wanted one, (or who) already own one. The younger generations aren't interested. I also think you're making a classic mistake when you speculate by saying "if it returns to its former level within the next few years."

He is correct that there is no assurance a stock will return to past glory. It is entirely possible that a company may fade away, just like Levi Strauss did when competitors stormed its castle from all sides with cheaper products, fancier products, variations on a theme and jeans made by other strong brands that extended their product lines into Levi's historic stronghold.

Similar things are happening now to Harley-Davidson (NYSE: HOG) as Honda Motors, Yamaha, Kowasaki and Suzuki take on "style and look" of the classic American "HOG" ride. They do it cheaper, with less effort and even borrow American icons like eagles and flags to promote their machines. They also offer a smoother ride in many cases, as Harley clings to the past and continues producing motorcycles with what it calls "edgy" (read "rough") rides. It is also true that younger motorcycle enthusiasts do not appreciate the Harley mystique in the same way as Baby Boomers have.

Continue reading Chasing Value: Will Harley-Davidson (HOG) fade like Levi Strauss?

They don't wanna retire ... they just wanna work at their jobs all day

Last week I reported on a new study suggesting that around a third of baby boomers don't have enough in savings to maintain their current standard of living in retirement. While I certainly think people need to save more money, I wasn't panicking yet. I wrote that, "Rather than seeking Florida retirement communities and golf courses, the senior citizens of the future may work longer, often on projects that have a social element. Remember, this is the group of people that brought us Woodstock and the Vietnam War protests -- I don't see them sitting by the beach."

MarketWatch's Marshall Loeb has a good piece on this very same issue. He starts with a nice quote from Jack Welch: "People don't want to sit on the beach just because they've hit 70. They're too vibrant. They want action: 70 is the new 55."

Loeb writes that "The appeal of early retirement is fading, and more and more folks are willing -- even eager -- to work beyond some mythic date. A record 24.6 million Americans age 55 and above are on the job."

Age discrimination is on the decline and so are "mandatory retirement ages" for certain companies and occupations.

This is great news for everyone: Older workers have a lot to teach younger workers, and working, at least part-time, late into life will likely slow mental deterioration (just like playing bridge does).

So let's not weep too much for the baby boomers. Many may not have enough to retire at 65, but that could work out just fine for them -- and society at large.

Baby Boomers need more money for retirement

Here's a shocker: baby boomers don't have enough money for retirement. An Associated Press piece reports that "Nearly one-third of baby boomers ages 51 to 61 are at risk of not having enough in savings to finance a comfortable retirement, according to a study being released Tuesday by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College."

This piece seems like the most believable of the recent studies on this topic that have come out. One actually suggested that people were saving too much, which reminded me of an old newspaper clipping I saw on the 'Headlines' segment of Jay Leno's Tonight Show: "Newspapers look for ways to deliver mail more slowly." I don't really see how anyone can argue that Americans are saving too much money. Pick up a copy of Maxed Out if you need convincing. Why would people who are saving too much money have so much debt?

The saving grace here may be that baby boomers are likely to retire in a way that is dramatically different from the way their parents did. Rather than seeking Florida retirement communities and golf courses, the senior citizens of the future may work longer, often on projects that have a social element -- Remember, this is the group of people that brought us Woodstock and the Vietnam War protests: I don't see them sitting by the beach.

My hunch is that medical advances will allow older people to be more active longer, and that we won't end up with too much of a retirement crisis.

Manor Care Buyout: Carlyle gives no premium for old fogies

This was an odd morning. I am not sure if the weird factor was that a senior care company was finally being acquired or that there was no real premium to the deal. The Carlyle Group is acquiring Manor Care (NYSE:HCR) in a $4.9 billion acquisition, or $6.3 billion if you include the debt assumption.

Shareholders will receive $67 per share, assuming shareholders approve it. "No-Premium" deals are harder for new shareholders to stomach, but older shareholders will be able to cash out since the stock jumped roughly 20% back in April after word of a deal had come to light when the company announced it was exploring strategic alternatives.

Manor Care employs almost 60,000 people and operates more than 500 facilities in nursing and rehabilitation centers, assisted living facilities, outpatient rehabilitation clinics, and hospice and home care agencies. If you consider the looming retirement of the baby boomers, all of these facilities offer a considerable value.

It sure seems like the price of poker, or bingo in this case, just went up. You expect more consolidation in a cottage industry that is about to become a secular group.

Jon Ogg can be reached at jonogg@247wallst.com; he does not own securities in the companies he covers.


Winnebago: Looking down a long, bumpy road

High gas prices, lower retail sales (unless it's the government figure), and a somewhat cautious transportation market compared to the outlook this time last year, higher metal costs, and higher labor costs ... the perfect storm to create a worrisome market for motor homes and RV's.

This morning Winnebago Industries Inc. (NYSE: WGO) announced a 14% profit drop, with earnings per share coming in at $0.35 and revenues of $231 million. Unfortunately the estimates were $0.49 EPS and $245 million revenues, but the silver lining is that sales were actually up 5% from last year. Unfortunately its nine-month sales fell to $632.5 million from $659 million a year earlier.

Shares gapped down to under $29 at the open and are at $29.93. The 52-week trading range is $26.90 to $36.72 and shares have traded in what looks to be a $27 to $40 since 2004. This could have been a lot worse in today's trading, but the market was strong this week and it appears traders are willing to take a "glass half-full" attitude.

The company said customers have been buying lower margin motor homes in recent months. If travel is soft the rest of the year it is going to have some tough comps ahead when compared to 2006 even without higher materials and labor costs. With the front tail of the Baby Boomers just now starting to turn 60, you know Winnebago wants the next five years to get here ASAP.

Money Shots: Preparing for a boomer retirement

This year, the first of the baby boomers -- those born during the high birth-rate years after World War II -- turned 60, and they continue to do so at a rate of 8,000 per day. Aside from the obvious boost to the Elastic Waistband industry, what does this news really signify? Answer: A large swath of the population will soon be lounging around Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ:SBUX) all day reading Dean Koontz novels.

But not so fast, people. Mary Beth Franklin, a senior editor at Kiplinger's, says you have to get real if you want a comfortable retirement. Take Social Security checks, for example. While not going away, she says, "they're not going to look like today's checks." They might only be exchangeable for dollar coins.

Furthermore, as pensions continue to freeze -- leaving up-to-date savings intact, but preventing further additions -- it's a good time to apply some common sense, ingenuity and discipline to your retirement planning.

In the following video feature, Ms. Franklin details what you need to be saving and how to save it:




B. Brandon Barker is the author of the novel Operation EMU.

Starbucks will need products for Paul McCartney fans

Now that Starbucks Corp.'s (NASDAQ:SBUX) signing of Paul McCartney to its Hear Music label, the coffee chain is going to need to accommodate the people who are going to flock to its stores.

Here are a few suggestions:

1) Non-fat Viagra Frappuccino -- Why should the health conscious ED sufferer sacrifice taste?

2) Starbucks hair dye -- People will never believe that you are 64;

3) Menopausal iced coffee -- Cool down those hot flashes and get a nice buzz;

4) Calcium-fortified Chai tea -- Great tasting and bone-saving;

5) Laxative latte -- Regularity was never so delicious.

McCartney's fans may need some help in understanding why they should pay so much for a cup of coffee. I'm sure Starbucks is working on that marketing challenge as well.

Goldman gets a Yen for boomers

Of course, there is always talk about how to make money from the Baby Boomers in the US.

As for Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS), it thinks another big opportunity is in the aging population in Japan. According to a story in the Financial Times, Goldman has actually set up a new investment to take advantage of the mega trend. It's a warrant that is based on the performance of 11 companies (it's called the Baby Boomer Basket E-Warrant).

The basket of companies are in industries such as fitness, hobbies, travel and even toilet makers (because retired people are likely to spend more time at home).

There could be a sudden boost. The reason: the typical Japanese pension pays out in a lump-sum, not as an ongoing annuity.

Oh, and yes, Goldman also has some banks in its warrant.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including the Complete M&A Handbook and the EDGAR-Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements.

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Last updated: December 02, 2008: 11:11 AM

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