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Black Friday expected to be strong, no promises for Christmas

Retailers expect a strong turnout on Black Friday this year, but they are careful to explain that it doesn't guarantee a winning holiday shopping season.

Consumers are being lured by good deals and special promotions, and Black Friday specials have been leaked earlier than usual this year in the hopes of generating some buzz. The retail sector needs it. Last year's holiday season was the worst in decades, thanks to the financial crisis. This year, the survivors will benefit from fewer competitors chasing the same consumer dollars.

Continue reading Black Friday expected to be strong, no promises for Christmas

Japan's warming up to buyouts?

To unwind its $45 billion in federal loans, Citigroup (C) has been aggressively selling off non-core assets. For example, the company sold its Japanese brokerage -- Nikko Cordial Securities -- and is even planning to take its Primerica unit public.

The dealmaking has continued. This week, Citigroup has agreed to sell its Bellsystem24 -- a major call center operator -- for $1 billion to Bain Capital LLC. All in all, it's a small deal. But every dollar counts, right?

This deal also highlights another trend; that is, the Japanese market is getting more amenable to buyouts, which is certainly a big shift. After all, Japan tries to avoid huge job losses. Yet, this can make it more difficult to streamline companies.

In fact, the Bellsystem24 transaction was able to get financing from a syndicate of Japanese financial institutions that include Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, Mizuho Financial Group and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group. No doubt, this is a sign that key players in Japan are willing to make some changes when it comes to buyouts.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including
The Complete M&A Handbook.

Bain goes shopping in China for GOME

Based in China, GOME Electrical Appliances is a top electronics retailer. However, the firm has been under a cloud lately. After all, GOME's founder, Huang Guangyu, is under investigation for alleged financial fraud.

But, such things aren't a deterrent for Bain Capital. As expected, this private equity operator announced a deal to buy about $233 million in convertible bonds in GOME. What's more, the retailer plans to sell $214 million in shares, with a discount of 40%.

Continue reading Bain goes shopping in China for GOME

Luxury sales to fall 20% in first half of 2009

Bain & Co., a leading consulting firm, estimates that luxury goods sales will fall 20% in the first half of 2009 before stabilizing in the second half. In all, Bain expects luxury goods sales will fall 10% for the year. In October, Bain was forecasting a drop of just 7%, but conditions have deteriorated quite a bit since then.

The Wall Street Journal reports (subscription required) that "The U.S., which accounts for roughly a third of luxury-goods sales, is one of the worst-hit markets. Bain expects U.S. sales of high-end clothing, accessories, tableware, cosmetics and jewelry will drop by 15% this year. That compares to expected sales declines of about 10% in both Europe and Japan."

Continue reading Luxury sales to fall 20% in first half of 2009

Doomsday Scenario: Bain eats onion, no-name groceries hot, pension fund fracas

More wonderful and weird tidings: Bain Capital, the brainiac Boston buyout fund, has hired salvage consultancy AlixPartners to extricate any remaining value from its bankrupt buy-out, Outback Steakhouse Incorporated. Outback is the originator of mega-calorie Blooming Onion, and is apparently too many calories for Bain, as the company reported a quarterly loss of a whopping $750 million.

Big grocery chain The Kroger Company (NYS: KR) reported strong earnings. That's the good news. The bad news? Growth was fueled by record growth in purchases by customers of its private label goods, which rose to a stunning 35% of total store purchases. Not only cat food, but white label cat food for the recession, people.

Continue reading Doomsday Scenario: Bain eats onion, no-name groceries hot, pension fund fracas

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Rationality's price

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer wonders what's going on with the Clear Channel deal.

The focus on this Clear Channel (NYSE: CCU) (Cramer's Take) breakdown, the endless focus, is on the $500 million that the private-equity team, Bain/Lee, will have to pay Clear Channel.

What's more important, I believe, is the billions of dollars I believe the bankers will owe Bain/Lee if they don't find some way to cut this price and make this deal smaller.

There have been dozens of deals that were struck during this period that the bankers wished they could walk away from but didn't. Which says to me, how desperate are they now NOT to have to pay the $22 billion in this very large deal. How desperate are they given the fact that a judge will, I believe, find against them and the damages will be immense, as big as the billions that Lee/Bain can show -- and will -- they would have made if the deal closed in the out years.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Rationality's price

Private equity: still partying like it was 2007

With the severe credit crunch, the private equity world has come to a screeching halt. Sure, there is some dealmaking – but nothing like it was just a year ago.

So, what are the private equity folks doing? Well, they are raising billions of dollars. This is according to a piece in the FT.com (subscription required).

Although, the typical investors in private equity funds – such as pension funds – are actually losing their appetites. There are concerns about lower returns as well as larger concentrations of portfolio risk. Just look at the recent write-downs at KKR.

Yet, the top-tier private equity firms are still having little trouble raising money. TPG plans to snag $15 billion and Apollo should also get the same amount. And, as for Bain and Blackstone(NYSE: BX), it looks like they'll get $20 billion apiece.

OK, so where is the big money coming from? Yep, it's the sovereign wealth funds. With bulging coffers – especially from oil – the money needs to go somewhere. And, with lower valuations and distressed companies, it could be spot-on timing for those with a long-term perspective.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates DealProfiles.com.

Clear Channel secures an approval, closer to closing merger

This near-lifelong private equity buyout of Clear Channel Communications (NYSE: CCU) may finally be coming to an end. Today the Department of justice issued a statement after the close of the market. This merger is being cleared with some conditions. Assuming this closes at the stated price of $39.20, this would be indicative of a 32% merger-arb gain. Not bad at all for a near-$20 Billion private equity deal at a time when it seems like all super-deals in private equity are dead.

Bain Capital and Thomas H. Lee can acquire the radio conglomerate if it divests radio stations in Houston, Las Vegas, Cincinnati, and San Francisco. This will prevent higher advertising prices in those markets. The Antitrust Division of the DOJ filed a suit today blocking the deal, but it filed a proposed settlement that would resolve competitive concerns.

This does allow any person to submit written comments during a 60-day comment period. Just in the last couple weeks the merger-arb spread was indicating that this deal was looking at-risk.

Now if we can just get these guys to approve the Sirius Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: SIRI) and XM Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: XMSR) merger. There was a boutique research report yesterday noting that a DOJ approval may be imminent.

Jon Ogg is a partner at 247WallSt.com.

Guitar Center solo no more

For months, we've expected someone to pick up Guitar Center (NASDAQ: GTRC), the largest U.S. musical instrument retailer. Now, Bain Capital Partners affiliates will pay $1.9 billion in cash, or $63 per share, equal to a premium of 26% over yesterday's closing price of $50.06. Additionally, the buyers will assume about $200M in debt. Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) helped to auction them off, and the deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter.

Guitar Center, which went public in 1997, now has over 210 stores. Last year they bought instrument retailer Woodwind & Brasswind for about $30 million. Back in March came word that Sageview Capital upped its holdings to 8.69%. Brokers responded with strong buys, buys and some holds, based on expectations of solid growth in the year ahead. Now it's time for private equity to tune it up. The stock had been a disappointment and the direct response business needs help.

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA+30.6910,464.40
NASDAQ+6.872,176.05
S&P 500+4.981,110.63

Last updated: November 26, 2009: 12:26 AM

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