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Wells Fargo (WFC): 'Ride the financial wave'

"Banks had taken a brutal beating over the last two years was brutal; the S&P Sector SPDR Financials dropped 72.0% from its high last September to its low in March," notes Brandon Clay.

In his Invest with an Edge, he explains, "One bank in particular is exerting itself again as a dominant player: Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC)." Here's his review.

"The painful declines in bank stocks appear to have stopped for now, as bank stocks have exploded off the March lows. As we've observed, financials have 'friends in high places.'

"Banks in general are showing promise as credit becomes easier. There's still a long way to go for complete recovery, but the trend is pointing up.

Continue reading Wells Fargo (WFC): 'Ride the financial wave'

Insider buying at Citigroup (C)

"Citigroup (NYSE: C) used to be the world's #1 bank; it is now ranked #15 after the financial crisis," points out long-standing investing and trading expert Mark Skousen.

Yet, in his premium Hedge Fund Trader service, the leading advisor ranks the bank as a speculative buy. Here's his review.

"The stock fell to $1 a share from $40 a share two years ago. But now Citigroup is showing some breathing room after selling Smith Barney to Morgan Stanley for $6.7 billion and pushing revenues up to $34 billion.

Continue reading Insider buying at Citigroup (C)

Are financial stocks still a buy?

Are financial stocks a buy now? Jeffrey Palma, a strategist for UBS says yes. He is recommending a modest "overweight" for this sector. He goes on to say that financials had the biggest gains among 10 industry groups in the MSCI World Index in the second quarter.

Let's be clear here. Mr. Palma is referring to the second quarter. The second quarter is done, finished. The real question is whether or not, going forward, the rally will continue.

Continue reading Are financial stocks still a buy?

What is the good and the bad about the condition of our banks?

What is the real condition of our banks? Well depends on which glass you are looking at. Is it half full or half empty? Let's look at the good news first:
  • Profits for the bans are up.
  • Bank stocks are surging.
  • The U.S. government gave 10 banks permission to pay back $70 billion of TARP monies.
  • Since January, banks have raised $200 billion and sold $75 billion in debt.
  • Stress tests showed that 19 of the biggest banks needed only $75 billion to withstand a tougher than expected recession.
  • In a press conference, U.S. Treasury Geithner said, "these are early signs of repair and improvement."

Continue reading What is the good and the bad about the condition of our banks?

Hudson City (HCBK): 'Best in breed' bank bet

"Hudson City Bancorp (NASDAQ: HCBK) is a fortress of safety with plenty of upside potential," says value investor Nathan Slaughter.

In his Half-Priced Stocks, he explains, "The 140-year old bank is a classic example of the tortoise and hare fable. Its slower, measured approach has paid off handsomely and keptit at arms length from the problems plaguing other banks."

"Hudson City manages a network of 130 bank branches spread throughout affluent regions of New Jersey, New York and Connecticut. At last count, the firm had over $20 billion in deposits and approximately $56 billion in total assets.

"According to an independent study, this tight-knit institution has been rated one of the nation's three strictest mortgage underwriters. So when most other banks relaxed their standards in recent years to attract riskier clientele, Hudson City stuck to its conservative roots and refused to budge.

Continue reading Hudson City (HCBK): 'Best in breed' bank bet

UBS narrows quarterly loss after write-downs

This morning, Swiss bank UBS (NYSE: UBS) reported a first-quarter loss of roughly $1.75 billion, adding a warning that bad-debt charges could increase. UBS's loss of 1.98 billion Swiss francs was far better than the 11.62 billion Swiss francs that the bank lost a year ago.

While UBS saw improved sentiment during the quarter, the bank remains cautious about its immediate outlook, noting, "The strong influence that government policy has on the market environment was clearly demonstrated in the first quarter as investors became less risk averse. However, the real economy has continued to deteriorate, and this is expected to have negative implications for credit-related provisioning in coming quarters."

Continue reading UBS narrows quarterly loss after write-downs

Comfort Zone Investing: Earnings are up, but stock price is down. So what's really up?

If you follow the bank stocks, you noticed the latest earnings were very good. Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) showed earnings that almost tripled. Citigroup (NYSE: C) lost 18 cents a share, but that was much better than the 34 cent loss analysts expected, and way better than the $2.44 it lost in the last quarter of 2008. Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) pre-announced it would have great earnings. Then delivered record results. But all of these stocks are well off their recent highs. Why is that?

It has to do with the quality of earnings. In other words, what was the source of this new-found land of profitability or in the case of Citi, lower loss? Investors like ongoing, predictable earnings. In the case of banks, that means loans such as mortgages or credit cards to worthy borrowers. But that isn't where banks got their profits this quarter. Instead, they came from investment banking and trading.

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Earnings are up, but stock price is down. So what's really up?

Today's technical outlook: Back out of the banks

Today's technical outlookAs the three-day Easter weekend approaches, volume is declining as both traders and investors shy away from a market that is fraught with uncertainty.

Not only are the Q1 earnings in doubt, but longer-term economic analysis by the ChangeWave team indicates that we can expect to see a trading range of 700 to 900 on the S&P 500 for at least several months. And this is supported by my own technical analysis.

After a discussion of many of the risks peculiar to this economic cycle, the ChangeWave team appraises the big economic forces that "simply have to play out over time."

Continue reading Today's technical outlook: Back out of the banks

Comfort Zone Investing: Time to buy bank stocks?

Bank stocks are well off their bottoms. Bank Of America (NYSE: BAC) traded at $2.53 on Feb. 20 of this year. Now it's $7.90 as I check the latest quote. Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) was down to $7.80 on March 5. You'll have to pay $17 as of this writing. JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) touched $14.96 before bouncing to $28. And Citigroup (NYSE: C) (hopefully) bottomed at $.97 on March 5, then ran to $3 as I write this. Is it finally time to start buying bank stocks?

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Time to buy bank stocks?

What does 'supporting the private banking system' mean?

The market rallied yesterday when the White House said it supported the private banking system. According to Reuters, an official said "This administration continues to strongly believe that a privately held banking system is the correct way to go, ensuring they are regulated sufficiently by this government."

The statement caused a small rally in big bank stocks, which had been off over 20% much of the day. But, they did not rally back to where the traded at the middle of the week.

Why? Smart investors know that the statement did not mean much. If one of the large banks, probably Citigroup (NYSE: C) or Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) gets into real trouble, the government will still have to step in. If confidence in one of the banks erodes fast enough and other banks refuse to do business with it or customers begin to pull enough money out, the government will have to step in. If Citi's stock price drops below $1 and is still falling, the government will have to step in.

Continue reading What does 'supporting the private banking system' mean?

Barclays (BCS): Some hope for U.S. bank stocks

Barclays (NYSE: BCS) posted earnings that would be the envy of almost any other global bank. In the process, it gave the troubled banking industry some hope that the future will not be one of ongoing losses stretching well into this year, if not into next.

The bank's second half surprised analysts. According to Bloomberg, "It looks like a pretty good underlying performance and start to 2009," said Michael Trippitt, a London-based analyst at Oriel Securities Ltd., who has an `add' rating on Barclays." A lot of the improvement came because many of Barclays large consumer and business service divisions did well when the effects of toxic asset where taken out.

Continue reading Barclays (BCS): Some hope for U.S. bank stocks

Memo to the President: Don't recycle bad bank fix ideas, get new ones that work

You've asked people to give you ideas, so here's one: Don't recycle Bush's failed ideas and expect them to work. Each of those failed ideas has deep flaws. Instead, if you have to save the banking system -- and I would like to see how things would work if companies and people lived within their means rather than borrowing to pay for things that they can't afford -- then cull and capitalize or create new banks.

Here's what's wrong with the three recycled Bush ideas being floated:

Continue reading Memo to the President: Don't recycle bad bank fix ideas, get new ones that work

Seven reasons the market is not going up any time soon: #4 The banks are falling apart

The banks are a wreck and now the pieces are beginning to fly apart, with Citigroup (NYSE: C) struggling the most and beginning to dismember itself.

Meredith Whitney, the uber-analyst who has been right about everything in banking for more than two years, said there were $2.4 trillion in asset downgrades at the end of last year by the credit agencies. This will really whack the banks' critical Tier 1 capital.

And even if you forget earnings problems, the banks will continue to have no money to lend, which will strangle businesses and the economy.

Be sure to read all 7 reasons the stock market isn't going up any time soon.

Michael Shulman is a contributor to OptionsZone.com.

The case builds in U.S. for two-tier banking

In the months, and perhaps quarters ahead, they'll be a great deal of talk about banking reform, in the context of financial services reform.

You'll hear much about the need 'to ban banks' or 'get control of commerce / economic activity out of banks hands' etc.

The fault, dear Brutus, is in ourselves

These well-intentioned arguments are missing the point. The problem is not banks per se, but the abuse of the FDIC provision and related insurance protections. In other words, what has to end is not banks, but 'heads the bank wins, tails the U.S. taxpayer loses (and pays).'

And as I wrote earlier, one viable solution, outlined by economist Richard Felson, is two-tier banking. An interpretive report by Gretchen Morgenson in Sunday's New York Times (NYSE: NYT) basically describes the themes discussed in the two-tier banking blog, and what appears to be the likely direction for banking.

Briefly, in the future, Felson argues that there should be two levels of banks. The first: private banks that invest in commercial operations, offer higher interest rates and have other exotic investment products, but offer no government insurance on deposits.

The second level: community-based banks that invest primarily in conventional mortgages, offer very low interest rates on deposits, have no high-risk / high interest rate investments, but offer government insurance for depositors.

Continue reading The case builds in U.S. for two-tier banking

JPMorgan up on earnings report

JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) posted earnings Thursday. In a surprise to analysts, who had been expecting a break-even quarter, JPM reported earning 7 cents for the fourth quarter.

While the report showed a 76% decline from the previous year, the news pushed the stock to early gains in the face of a drop in the Dow.

Typical of the lack of conviction in the markets, JPM gave up early gains. Subsequent trading restored the stock to the positive column before it succumbed to a late-day sell-off that shaved more than 6% from its market value.

The mid-morning decline in JPM occurred as Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) plummeted to a new low at $7.50. BAC is sagging under the weight of absorbing Countrywide and Merrill Lynch, both of which have proven more difficult to digest than earlier thought.

Bank stocks in general are under heavy selling pressure after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke declared Wednesday that billions more will be required to restore stability to the nation's (and the world's) banking system.

Continue reading JPMorgan up on earnings report

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-93.7910,197.47
NASDAQ-17.882,149.02
S&P 500-11.271,087.24

Last updated: November 13, 2009: 02:48 AM

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