TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the guys at the top don't know what they're doing, and it shows.
AIG's (NYSE: AIG) (Cramer's Take) making everyone's life difficult today. That's in part because AIG had been the biggest proponent of "super senior," meaning they repeatedly said that their collateralized debt obligation (CDO) exposure was of the kind that was intelligent, measured and thoughtful. They talked endlessly about how their due diligence made the difference and that unlike all of the other buyers, they kicked the tires three times and never bought the plain ol' CDOs. Then they brought in professors from Wharton to be sure that even if all heck broke loose and they were being too aggressive, they would be hedged.
They also were the first to give you the percentages of how much could go bad and that even in the worst-case scenario, they were overcapitalized. And, most important, they were insurers, no need to mark to market, they can play it all out.
Plus, they touted their own struggles. They made the point that because of the turmoil at the top, they hadn't bought any bad stuff and stopped buying residential real estate products after 2005. What they did buy -- they assured us in that big teach-in dog-and-pony show in December -- was the extra-special nature of their particular buys and that, unlike everyone else, risk officers scrutinized every single piece of paper that went into their super senior insurance, meaning only the top-top part of a CDO-squared, the part where everything had to default ahead of it; they made a point of how impossible that would be.
In January, Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) made a gutsy move when it decided to purchase Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC). True, it would greatly expand its mortgage footprint, but it would also mean taking on lots of risk.
Of course, since then, the financials went into a swoon. In fact, the US financial system almost imploded because of the Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) debacle.
As a result, there is much skepticism that Bank of America will close its deal, as evident by remarks from an analyst with Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. – Paul Miller – who thinks that Bank of America should forgo the deal.
His belief is that there will be a need for a whopping $30 billion writedown, which would be tough to swallow for Bank of America's shareholders.
Interestingly enough, there are already signs that Bank of America is getting skittish. Last week, the firm was not clear that it would back Countrywide's debt. The upshot was that S&P downgraded the debt to junk status.
And yes, in today's trading, Countrywide's stock is down 10% to $5.35.
Countywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) reported a loss of $893 million for the first quarter. BloggingStocks' Peter Cohan wrote that "Fortunately, Countrywide has an exit strategy. In January, Countrywide agreed to sell itself to Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) for about $4 billion in stock. The question is whether Bank of America will pull out of the deal now that it sees the rising costs it will incur if it moves forward. Since Countrywide trades 15% below that takeout price, the market has its doubts."
But now that may be in further doubt. In a surprise move, Standard & Poor's downgraded Countrywide's debt to junk status, citing concern that Bank of America might not back the company's debt once the buyout is completed.
But some analysts say that the fact that Bank of America hasn't stood up and said it will back the debt raises questions about whether the deal can be completed at all. Friedman Billings Ramsey & Co. analyst Paul Miller said that "A lot of things have changed in the last 30 days. Home prices are still falling very rapidly and Countrywide's credit costs are getting worse from what we hear."
Shares of Countrywide fell on the initial news of the downgrade but rebounded to close down just 1.16% on the day. Still, the wide premium to the proposed takeover offer reflects a great deal of skepticism about the deal's prospects.
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) is paying $6 million in fines to settle SEC charges that the company favored the recommendation of its own mutual funds while purporting to be offering unbiased advice. From the SEC's release on the matter, "The recommendations were supposed to be based upon an objective and unbiased research methodology that was outlined for clients and prospective clients in promotional literature and disclosures. However, in certain instances, Banc of America Investment Services and Banc of America Capital Management focused on subjective criteria in the research process, which favored Nations Funds, and resulted in increased assets under management for Banc of America Capital Management."
15,000 customer accounts were effected, and the settlement will be used to compensate those customers: an average of $400 each. The average "losses" to consumers were quite small, but there's an important principle here for investors to keep in mind: be wary of any advisor who suggests that you buy their products.
If you choose to work with a financial planner/advisor/manager, make sure it's a fee-only one, not someone paid on commission.
Better still, put together your own portfolio of low-cost index mutual funds. For a couple great examples, check out Ben Stein's model portfolios.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) to post a much smaller profit for the first quarter, while Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE: ADM) is expected to report a profit gain. Both companies are scheduled to report results Tuesday morning.
Countrywide Financial is expected to earn two cents per share, which is down 97% from the same period in 2007 when it earned 72 cents per share, but that swings from a loss of 79 cents per share in the most recent quarter. However, the company tended to fall short of earnings estimates even before the credit crunch set in; that fourth-quarter loss of 79 missed estimates by 163%.
Formerly one of the top residential mortgage lenders, California-based Countrywide Financial is being bought out by Bank of America (NYSE: BAC). In the past year, Countrywide's revenues were $24 billion, and its net income is in the red to the tune of $703.5 million. Not surprisingly, the consensus recommendation of analysts remains to hold CFC.
The stock has fallen 84.9% in the past year and closed Monday at $5.83.
The Bank of America, seeking approval of its Countrywide Financial Corp. takeover, announced Monday it will modify at least $40 billion in troubled mortgages during the next two years to keep customers in their homes, Bloomberg News reported Monday.
The action could help as many as 265,000 homeowners, Liam McGee, president of the Bank of America's (NYSE: BAC) global consumer and small-business banking unit, said Monday in Los Angeles at a U.S. Federal Reserve hearing on the pending purchase, Bloomberg News reported.
``No one benefits from a foreclosed home,'' McGee told Bloomberg News. ``It is bad business for banks.''
Bank of America's shares moved 10 cents higher to $38.40 while Countrywide (NYSE: CFC) gained 7 cents to $5.91 on the news in Monday afternoon trading.
If the financial crisis hasn't crippled banks enough, the cost to build bank loan reserves may be just as painful, according to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street". The need for larger reserves is eating away at earnings and is showing up in first quarter reports for banks such as Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC), whose results took an additional hit because of a $6B addition to its loan loss reserve.
Just four months after Journal parent Dow Jones & Co. was bought by Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation (NYSE: NWS), Wall Street Journal managing editor Marcus Brauchli is expected to resign, according to the Wall Street Journal. Journal publisher Robert Thomson may temporarily take over until a new managing editor is hired.
According to Reuters, activist shareholders in ASM International (NASDAQ: ASMI) believe, by giving more equity to top managers, that they can boost its value by $1.6B.
Private equity firm Corsair Capital and several of the banks bigger shareholders are expected to inject over $6B into Cleveland regional bank National City Corporation (NYSE: NCC), the Wall Street Journal reported.
According to sources, the Financial Times reported that Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) is planning to sell a portion of its 9% stake in China Construction Bank in order to raise capital. However, Bank of America will offset some of the share sales by exercising options it holds to buy additional stakes in the bank at levels that are now well below market rates.
The UK Telegraph reported that the BBC is talking to private equity firms to join in a bid for Virgin Media Inc's (NASDAQ: VMED) Virgin Media Television, which owns a percentage of the UKTV content business that the BBC doesn't already own.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) to post a smaller profit for the first quarter, while Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK) is expected to report a modest profit gain. Both companies are scheduled to report results on Monday morning.
Bank of America is expected to earn 41 cents per share, which is down 65% from the same period in 2007 when it earned $1.17 per share, but up 87% from the previous quarter when it reported 5 cents per share. While the company was beating quarterly estimates before the credit crunch set in, in the third quarter of 2007 it missed the consensus estimate by 22.2%, and in the fourth quarter it fell short by 72.1%.
Charlotte, NC-based Bank of America is the second-largest bank in the U.S. by assets behind Citigroup (NYSE: C), and boasts the country's most extensive branch network. In the past year, its revenues were $119.2 billion and its net income totaled $14.9 billion. Its EPS growth forecast for the year is -0.9%, which is slightly better than the banking industry average. The consensus recommendation of analysts remains to hold BAC.
The stock has fallen 25.6% in the past year and trades at a P/E of 11.68. Shares closed Friday at $38.56.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial expect JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) to post smaller profits in the first quarter. Both banks are scheduled to report results on Wednesday.
JP Morgan is expected to earn 65 cents per share, which is down 51% from the same period in 2007 when it earned $1.34. The company has tended to beat quarterly estimates recently. However, it fell short of the consensus fourth-quarter 2007 estimate by six cents, or 6.8%.
New York-based JP Morgan is the third largest financial services firm in the U.S, behind Citigroup (NYSE: C) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), and recently agreed to buy Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC). In the past year, JP Morgan's revenues were $116.3 billion and its net income totaled $15.3 billion. Its EPS growth forecast for the year is -23.4%, much worse than the banking industry average and the S&P 500. Yet the consensus recommendation of analysts is to buy JPM and has been for most of the past three months.
The stock has fallen 15.5% in the past year and trades at a P/E of 9.47. Shares closed Monday at $41.50.
Investment Quality Trends -- one of the most respected newsletters in the advisory field -- uses a proprietary strategy that assesses historic level of stock price to yield; it's goal is to buy those stocks offering the best potential for downside protection and upside appreciation.
Here, editor Kelley Wright explains his methodology and highlights his current "Timely Ten" stocks that best match his time-tested criteria.
"Investors who wished to hold every stock in that we currently rank in the 'Undervalued and Rising Trend' categories, would need to hold one hundred twenty six stocks as of March; clearly too many positions to be practical.
"Our Timely Ten, therefore, is our reasoned expectation based on our methodology and experience for what we believe will perform best over the next five years.
"Do we believe that all 10 will go up simultaneously or immediately? Of course not. Our four decades of research and experience, however, leads us to believe that these stocks, purchased at current Undervalued levels, are well positioned for appreciation.
After hitting a one-year high of $52.96 in October, the stock hit a one-year low of $33.12 in January. This morning, BAC opened at $39.18. So far today the stock has hit a low of $38.76 and a high of $39.30. As of 12:50, BAC is trading at $38.81, down $0.69 (-1.8%). The chart for BAC looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will today outline a new plan to better organize the overall bureaucracy that oversees financial markets, the Wall Street Journal reported. Paulson's new proposals include merging or eliminating all together institutions such as the SEC.
According to people familiar with the matter, the Wall Street Journal also reported that Alphonso Jackson, the Housing and Urban Development secretary, is expected to today announce his resignation, a move which could deal a blow to the Bush administration's efforts to combat the crisis in the housing markets.
The Financial Times reported that Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) may take its equity prime brokerage business off the market after receiving weak interest from potential bidders. People close to the situation emphasized that no final decision has been made on the unit.
WEB SITES:
Bloomberg reported that Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) will set up an independent credit card unit, according to sources. The rest of the consumer division, mainly bank branches and non-bank lending, will be divided into five regional groups, according to the inside sources.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the guys at the top don't know what they're doing, and it shows.
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Countrywide Financial is expected to earn two cents per share, which is down 97% from the same period in 2007 when it earned 72 cents per share, but that swings from a loss of 79 cents per share in the most recent quarter. However, the company tended to 
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Bank of America is expected to earn 41 cents per share, which is down 65% from the same period in 2007 when it earned $1.17 per share, but up 87% from the previous quarter when it reported 5 cents per share. While the company 
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