Japan, the world's second largest economy is facing a sharp downturn. To try and stimulate its economy, Japan is using the financial tools used by the US and UK. The Bank of Japan( BoJ) said that it is increasing its purchases of JGB's (Japanese Government Bonds) from y 1,400 billion to y 1,800 billion per month. A central bank buying its bonds has the effect of creating new money that will flow into the economy. Japan is careful to say that this is not "quantitive easing" or just printing money, but in reality it will have the same effect.
Bank of Japan posts
FeedBank of Japan is buying Japanese government bonds
Continue reading Bank of Japan is buying Japanese government bonds
Fed be nimble, Fed be quick, Fed deploys a quantitative fix
Does the Federal Reserve's lowering of its benchmark, short-term interest rate to 1% represent the end of its ability to stimulate economic growth and / or shorten the U.S. recession?
No, it doesn't. That's because the Fed has another tool in its arsenal: 'quantitative easing.'
Quantitative easing involves increasing the reserves in the banking system after the Fed loses the ability to lower the cost of money from an interest rate standpoint.
The size of the resources available for quantitative easing policy varies on how much money the Fed believes it has to deploy, so says economist David H. Wang. One school argues that the amount of money available is up to a set percentage of U.S. GDP, for example 15% or 20%, he said. However, another school argues that the amount of money available is much larger than that, Wang added.
The Fed's balance sheet has surged to $2.2 trillion this month from about $924 million in September, when the first wave of the financial crisis began to freeze credit markets and decimate stock markets around the world, he said. Further, the Fed's balance sheet is likely to increase as other interventions become necessary to stabilize the financial system. For example, the Fed is on the hook for up to another $240-265 billion as a result of Monday's rescue of Citigroup (NYSE: C).
No, it doesn't. That's because the Fed has another tool in its arsenal: 'quantitative easing.'
Quantitative easing involves increasing the reserves in the banking system after the Fed loses the ability to lower the cost of money from an interest rate standpoint.
The size of the resources available for quantitative easing policy varies on how much money the Fed believes it has to deploy, so says economist David H. Wang. One school argues that the amount of money available is up to a set percentage of U.S. GDP, for example 15% or 20%, he said. However, another school argues that the amount of money available is much larger than that, Wang added.
The Fed's balance sheet has surged to $2.2 trillion this month from about $924 million in September, when the first wave of the financial crisis began to freeze credit markets and decimate stock markets around the world, he said. Further, the Fed's balance sheet is likely to increase as other interventions become necessary to stabilize the financial system. For example, the Fed is on the hook for up to another $240-265 billion as a result of Monday's rescue of Citigroup (NYSE: C).
Continue reading Fed be nimble, Fed be quick, Fed deploys a quantitative fix
Fed, ECB lead effort to increase dollar supply in global markets
The U.S. Federal Reserve is leading an unprecedented effort by major central banks to push dollars into the global financial system, the Fed announced Monday, backstopping government fiscal policies to restore confidence,
The European Central Bank, Bank of England, and the Swiss Central Bank, will offer unlimited dollar fund auctions with maturities of seven days, 28 days, and 84 days at a fixed interest rate. The Bank of Japan may offer similar measures, the Fed said.
The Fed added that "central banks will continue to work together and are prepared to take whatever measures are necessary to provide sufficient liquidity in short-term funding markets."
Dollar falls on increased currency supply
The dollar fell early Monday against the world's other major currencies on the news, as traders adjusted positions to the increased supply of dollars. The dollar fell one half cent to $1.3615 versus the euro, 1.5 cents to $1.7286 versus the British pound and one-third yen to 100.37 versus Japan's yen.
Economist Richard Felson told BloggingStocks Monday the major central banks' effort is clear: keep financial markets adequately supplied with dollars amid a world that's hoarding dollars.
"It's one of the paradoxes of this current global financial crisis that despite the fact that the crisis originated in the United States, banks and financial institutions around the world are hoarding dollars. The reason is the dollar is still the world's reserve currency and investors are engaging in a flight to safety. The consequence has been a credit crunch," Felson said. "The central banks' policy should help alleviate that crunch by ensuring that there's adequate dollar liquidity. It's the correct move."
The European Central Bank, Bank of England, and the Swiss Central Bank, will offer unlimited dollar fund auctions with maturities of seven days, 28 days, and 84 days at a fixed interest rate. The Bank of Japan may offer similar measures, the Fed said.
The Fed added that "central banks will continue to work together and are prepared to take whatever measures are necessary to provide sufficient liquidity in short-term funding markets."
Dollar falls on increased currency supply
The dollar fell early Monday against the world's other major currencies on the news, as traders adjusted positions to the increased supply of dollars. The dollar fell one half cent to $1.3615 versus the euro, 1.5 cents to $1.7286 versus the British pound and one-third yen to 100.37 versus Japan's yen.
Economist Richard Felson told BloggingStocks Monday the major central banks' effort is clear: keep financial markets adequately supplied with dollars amid a world that's hoarding dollars.
"It's one of the paradoxes of this current global financial crisis that despite the fact that the crisis originated in the United States, banks and financial institutions around the world are hoarding dollars. The reason is the dollar is still the world's reserve currency and investors are engaging in a flight to safety. The consequence has been a credit crunch," Felson said. "The central banks' policy should help alleviate that crunch by ensuring that there's adequate dollar liquidity. It's the correct move."
Continue reading Fed, ECB lead effort to increase dollar supply in global markets
Trichet's ECB 'cash cavalry' is on the move - and not a moment too soon
The resources of the central bank of the world's second strongest economy have now been marshaled to address the global financial crisis. The European Central Bank, led by President Jean-Claude Trichet has shifted policy - - a remarkable, historic change - - and is now working in coordination with its companion major central banks - - the U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and the Bank of China - - and others, to end a credit crisis that threatens to cripple international business and seriously damage economies, worldwide.
A legendary inflation hawk,Trichet, whose ECB lowered its key, short-term interest rate by 50 basis points in conjunction with the other major central banks on Wednesday, declined to rule out further steps to solve the crisis, including additional interest rate cuts, Bloomberg News reported Thursday.
ECB: banks offered unlimited cash at 3.75%
Further, and equally significant, Trichet offered banks unlimited cash at 3.75% to help them cope with tight credit markets, Reuters reported Thursday. Previously, the ECB had offered funds to the highest bidders, a tactic that pushed average rates as high as 4.99% - - almost 75 basis points above the official rate.
In addition, the ECB cut in half the premium it charges for overnight emergency loans and increased the interest rate it pays on deposits, Reuters reported Thursday.
Continue reading Trichet's ECB 'cash cavalry' is on the move - and not a moment too soon
Economists: Fed, ECB, BOJ, others will fight the fire now, address costs later
A debate on 'How much money does the Fed have?' is premature, several economists told BloggingStocks Monday.
Instead Fed policymakers, in conjunction with the U.S. Treasury, and major central banks in industrialized economies, should and will focus on the huge task at hand: using traditional and new tools to stabilize the financial system. Investors/traders should concentrate on that, as well, the economists say.
'Fight the fire, now; worry about water costs, later'
"Questions regarding the ultimate size of the Fed's resources are not appropriate at this juncture, in my view," Economist David H. Wang said. "The immediate task is to prevent a panic, a panic that could cause this financial crisis to turn into a financial calamity."
"The Fed, ECB [European Central Bank], Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and others must fight the fire that's pretty big right now, and determine the water costs later," Wang added. "They have to maintain liquidity and create new tools and mechanisms that keep overnight credit available to banks, companies and institutions, Otherwise commerce is going to slow down like a car with an oil leak."
Economist Richard Felson agreed with Wang, adding that the Fed and or the U.S Treasury have to make sure corporations and other key institutions - - including state governments - - have adequate overnight and related short-term capital. "They have to prevent the financial crisis from choking off credit to sound companies and of course to the states. The crisis can not be allowed to prevent companies from conducting typical business or states from paying suppliers, making payroll, rolling over debt etc. or the economy will contract further," Felson said. "We've got to stop the momentum and get the ball rolling in the other direction."
Instead Fed policymakers, in conjunction with the U.S. Treasury, and major central banks in industrialized economies, should and will focus on the huge task at hand: using traditional and new tools to stabilize the financial system. Investors/traders should concentrate on that, as well, the economists say.
'Fight the fire, now; worry about water costs, later'
"Questions regarding the ultimate size of the Fed's resources are not appropriate at this juncture, in my view," Economist David H. Wang said. "The immediate task is to prevent a panic, a panic that could cause this financial crisis to turn into a financial calamity."
"The Fed, ECB [European Central Bank], Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and others must fight the fire that's pretty big right now, and determine the water costs later," Wang added. "They have to maintain liquidity and create new tools and mechanisms that keep overnight credit available to banks, companies and institutions, Otherwise commerce is going to slow down like a car with an oil leak."
Economist Richard Felson agreed with Wang, adding that the Fed and or the U.S Treasury have to make sure corporations and other key institutions - - including state governments - - have adequate overnight and related short-term capital. "They have to prevent the financial crisis from choking off credit to sound companies and of course to the states. The crisis can not be allowed to prevent companies from conducting typical business or states from paying suppliers, making payroll, rolling over debt etc. or the economy will contract further," Felson said. "We've got to stop the momentum and get the ball rolling in the other direction."
Continue reading Economists: Fed, ECB, BOJ, others will fight the fire now, address costs later
Major central banks seen tolerating gradual dollar decline, but no 'brutal' moves
With passage of the rescue bill, and the U.S. Treasury's upcoming actions to stabilize credit markets through a variety of tools/mechanisms, one area that is likely to experience negative consequences is the dollar.
Simply, more dollars borrowed (or more dollars printed) almost always means each dollar is worth less. Economist Richard Felson said a gradual, orderly decline in the dollar "would be expected, and is almost considered the default response, given increased U.S. government borrowing." The dollar closed Friday down about one-half cent to $1.3775 and $1.7713 versus the euro and the British pound, respectively.
Central banks monitoring dollar's level
However, leaders of the world's major industrialized economies will not, in Felson's interpretation, accept a sudden and/or inordinate decline in the dollar. "Along with increased stress on the financial system, 'brutal' currency movements, as [European Central Bank President Jean-Claude] Trichet has said, throws everything out of whack by making it hard for companies to project costs of foreign operations," Felson said. "For these reason and others I believe the major central banks will intervene to support the dollar, should the U.S. Treasury's extra borrowing or the U.S. Federal Reserve's extra lending for the bailout lead to too large or too quick of a decline in the dollar."
Continue reading Major central banks seen tolerating gradual dollar decline, but no 'brutal' moves
Fed, ECB, BOE, BOJ again add funds to financial system
The U.S Federal Reserve and its companion, major central banks around the world again Monday took actions to keep financial markets liquid amid a credit crunch that has made private banks reluctant to lend critical, short-term funds to each other, and that threatens to slow global growth to a crawl.
The Fed said it increased the size of its dollar swap arrangements to $620 billion from the previously-announced $290 billion. The Fed also increased the size of its liquidity auctions and announced two forward auctions to provide funding over the year-end period.
"These steps are being undertaken to mitigate pressures evident in the term funding markets in the United States and abroad," the Fed said.
"By committing to provide a very large quantity of term funding, the Fed actions should reassure financial market participants that financing will be available against good collateral, lessening concerns about funding and rollover risk," the Fed said.
The nine banks participating in the swap lines are: the European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, National Bank of Denmark, Bank of Norway, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Sweden, and the Swiss National Bank.
Economist backs Fed's moves
Economist Richard Felson applauded the Fed's move, given "the unchartered waters the Fed is in, and the political pressure it faces."
"It's liquidity front-and-center, while simultaneously determining with the [U.S.] Treasury which institutions have to be saved, which it can let the private sector dissolve, and at the same time begin the process of buying distressed debt," Felson said. "One goal is lowering the LIBOR spread, and this should help."
Libor-OIS rose 219 basis points Monday, Felson said, "a clear sign banks remain reluctant to lend to each other."
The Fed said it increased the size of its dollar swap arrangements to $620 billion from the previously-announced $290 billion. The Fed also increased the size of its liquidity auctions and announced two forward auctions to provide funding over the year-end period.
"These steps are being undertaken to mitigate pressures evident in the term funding markets in the United States and abroad," the Fed said.
"By committing to provide a very large quantity of term funding, the Fed actions should reassure financial market participants that financing will be available against good collateral, lessening concerns about funding and rollover risk," the Fed said.
The nine banks participating in the swap lines are: the European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, National Bank of Denmark, Bank of Norway, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Sweden, and the Swiss National Bank.
Economist backs Fed's moves
Economist Richard Felson applauded the Fed's move, given "the unchartered waters the Fed is in, and the political pressure it faces."
"It's liquidity front-and-center, while simultaneously determining with the [U.S.] Treasury which institutions have to be saved, which it can let the private sector dissolve, and at the same time begin the process of buying distressed debt," Felson said. "One goal is lowering the LIBOR spread, and this should help."
Libor-OIS rose 219 basis points Monday, Felson said, "a clear sign banks remain reluctant to lend to each other."
Continue reading Fed, ECB, BOE, BOJ again add funds to financial system
Dollar falls Thursday, but the decline is orderly, not frenetic
The dollar was lower early Thursday against most of the world's other major currencies, but traders underscored that the expected decline was orderly, not frenetic nor frenzied. "We are seeing an orderly decline in the dollar, which was expected given the increased U.S. Government borrowing and spending associated with the AIG bailout and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rescues," Currency Trader Andrew Resnick said. "Banks are still hoarding cash and are reluctant to lend to one another but we're not seeing a large fall in the dollar, which is a moral victory of sorts."
At 10:20 a.m. EDT the dollar was mixed across the board - - down about one-half cent to $1.4383 versus euro and one-third cent to $1.8204 versus the British pound, but up about one-half yen to 105.24 versus Japan's yen.
Overnight lending rates drop
Resnick said he does not expect the U.S. Federal Reserve's effort, in conjunction with the European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, Swiss National Bank, and Bank of Canada, to auction $247 billion "to solve the financial crisis in a day or a week or month, but it is having its intended effect."
"It is easing money market pressures because overnight money market rates dropped about 120 basis points to 3.80%," Resnick said. "But more importantly it's sending a signal to the cash hoarders and those who may want to make a bet on the opposite of the central banks that 'You had better be careful trying to speculate against us because the likelihood of a series of cash interventions is high.' Over time, this will help maintain liquidity and keep the currency markets orderly."
Continue reading Dollar falls Thursday, but the decline is orderly, not frenetic
Dollar holding up (so far), despite credit, stock market woes
A flight to the dollar? Amid the United States' worst financial crisis in more than 20 years, perhaps since The Great Depression of the 1930s? It seems almost paradoxical, but that's the reality. So far. Stay tuned, an economist says.
The dollar has lost ground versus the world's other major currencies, amid this latest round of write-offs, bankruptcies and mortgage-asset-related stress on Wall Street, but the greenback has not plunged. In fact, the dollar is off its lows registered early Monday.
In early Tuesday trading, the dollar rose about a half-cent versus the euro to $1.4198, 1.5 cents versus the British pound to $1.7854, and a half-cent versus the Swiss franc to $1.1101. However, the dollar fell about 1 yen to 103.68 versus Japan's yen.
Themes: flight to quality, de-leveraging
Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Tuesday the dollar's recent track displays two tendencies: a flight to quality and an unwinding of the carry trade -- i.e. a global de-leveraging.
"Although the U.S. Government and taxpayers are likely to spend more to deal with this financial crisis, and that implies more dollars in supply and inflation, institutional investors fear a decline or collapse in stock markets around the world, and are piling into the dollar," Wang said. "That is offsetting the dollar-weakening-effect of more U.S. Government spending. Essentially, it is flight to quality, so far."
The dollar has lost ground versus the world's other major currencies, amid this latest round of write-offs, bankruptcies and mortgage-asset-related stress on Wall Street, but the greenback has not plunged. In fact, the dollar is off its lows registered early Monday.
In early Tuesday trading, the dollar rose about a half-cent versus the euro to $1.4198, 1.5 cents versus the British pound to $1.7854, and a half-cent versus the Swiss franc to $1.1101. However, the dollar fell about 1 yen to 103.68 versus Japan's yen.
Themes: flight to quality, de-leveraging
Economist David H. Wang told BloggingStocks Tuesday the dollar's recent track displays two tendencies: a flight to quality and an unwinding of the carry trade -- i.e. a global de-leveraging.
"Although the U.S. Government and taxpayers are likely to spend more to deal with this financial crisis, and that implies more dollars in supply and inflation, institutional investors fear a decline or collapse in stock markets around the world, and are piling into the dollar," Wang said. "That is offsetting the dollar-weakening-effect of more U.S. Government spending. Essentially, it is flight to quality, so far."
Continue reading Dollar holding up (so far), despite credit, stock market woes
Suddenly, everyone is buying the dollar
The much-maligned, beleaguered dollar -- driven lower for nearly a decade by series of unconscionable mistakes by United States' policy makers, may be poised to make a comeback.
But don't try to put those words into the mouth of currency trader Andrew Resnick. No sir. Dollar what? Resnick remains the skeptic of skeptics. There have been too many false break-outs and weak rallies that proved to be mere corrections in the euro's decade-long rise, in Resnick's view, to conclude at this juncture that the worst for the dollar -- and, by extension, for the United States -- is over.
A strong week for the greenback
That said, the week's data points are compelling. The dollar registered its biggest gain in two months against the euro, strengthening to $1.5006 -- or an improvement of almost 3.7% -- an enormous move in the currency market for one week. The dollar also strengthened about 2.1% versus the British pound to $1.9208, and about 2% versus Japan's yen to 110.08 yen.
What has caused the sudden turn of events in the currency market? (We don't want to use more-positive adjectives just yet.) Not the health of the U.S. economy, according to Resnick.
ECB leaves key, short-term interest rate unchanged at 4%
The European Central Bank Thursday kept its key, short-term interest rate -- the refinanced rate -- the same at 4%, the bank announced.
The ECB said its most recent data confirmed the existence of strong, short-term upward pressure on inflation. The bank went on to say that Europe is "experiencing a rather protracted period of temporarily high annual rates of inflation, resulting mainly from increases in energy and food prices." Hence, upside risks to the price stability remain, the ECB added, necessitating the stand-pat monetary stance.
Trichet is resolute
In general, economists and analysts had expected the stand-pat stance, given the acceleration of inflation in the euro-zone. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet indicated as much in his post-ECB meeting news conference.
"We believe that the current monetary policy stance will contribute'' to bringing inflation under control, Trichet said, according to Bloomberg News. "The firm anchoring of medium- to longer-term inflation expectations is of the highest priority.''
Further, for at least the time being, the ECB does not appear to be concerned about the euro's steady, two-year rise versus the dollar. The euro rose to a record $1.5913 versus the dollar Thursday morning before paring gains to trade around $1.5830 Thursday at mid-day.
The euro is up about 33% versus the dollar since January 2006. A stronger euro makes European exports harder to sell because it raises the cost of exports as European producers increase the price of their goods to compensate for foreign currency depreciation. Some European companies, commercial aerospace giant Airbus among them, have complained that the euro's rise versus the dollar is beginning to affect their competitiveness.
The ECB said its most recent data confirmed the existence of strong, short-term upward pressure on inflation. The bank went on to say that Europe is "experiencing a rather protracted period of temporarily high annual rates of inflation, resulting mainly from increases in energy and food prices." Hence, upside risks to the price stability remain, the ECB added, necessitating the stand-pat monetary stance.
Trichet is resolute
In general, economists and analysts had expected the stand-pat stance, given the acceleration of inflation in the euro-zone. ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet indicated as much in his post-ECB meeting news conference.
"We believe that the current monetary policy stance will contribute'' to bringing inflation under control, Trichet said, according to Bloomberg News. "The firm anchoring of medium- to longer-term inflation expectations is of the highest priority.''
Further, for at least the time being, the ECB does not appear to be concerned about the euro's steady, two-year rise versus the dollar. The euro rose to a record $1.5913 versus the dollar Thursday morning before paring gains to trade around $1.5830 Thursday at mid-day.
The euro is up about 33% versus the dollar since January 2006. A stronger euro makes European exports harder to sell because it raises the cost of exports as European producers increase the price of their goods to compensate for foreign currency depreciation. Some European companies, commercial aerospace giant Airbus among them, have complained that the euro's rise versus the dollar is beginning to affect their competitiveness.
Continue reading ECB leaves key, short-term interest rate unchanged at 4%
So far, dollar intervention 'whispers' remain just that
Although confidence that market forces will be the only factors determining currency rates is decreasing, there's little indication the world's major central banks are about to initiate a coordinated action to support the dollar.The dollar has fallen more than 20% versus the euro and more than 10% versus the British pound since 2006. In the months ahead, monetary officials may face increased pressure to intervene as companies in Europe complain about the higher prices they must charge for their exports to the U.S. to retain purchasing power amid a falling dollar.
"The risks of coordinated intervention are going to increase in the second quarter for sure as the dollar weakens further,'' Mitul Kotecha, head of foreign-exchange research in London at Calyon, told Bloomberg News Monday. The firm is the securities unit of Credit Agricole SA, France's second-biggest bank.
In midday Monday trading, the dollar was mostly higher against the world's other major currencies after U.S. stock markets rose. The dollar gained about one-half cent to $1.5356 versus the euro, about 1 yen to 100.55 versus Japan's yen, and about 1.5 cents to $1.0288 versus the Swiss franc. The dollar was virtually unchanged at $1.9822 versus the British pound.
Continue reading So far, dollar intervention 'whispers' remain just that
Dollar falls to record low vs euro on Bear Stearns, credit market woes
The dollar fell to a yet another record-low against the euro Friday and plunged against the world's other major currencies, as investors shunned U.S. investments ahead of an almost-certain U.S. recession, with likely further interest rate reductions from the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Friday's trigger event for selling was The Bear Stearns Companies, Inc. (NYSE: BSC) stunning announcement that -- less than 10 days after senior management officials called liquidity-crunch rumors 'absolutely ridiculous' -- it had accepted a 28-day, emergency, secured loan from the U.S. Federal Reserve via JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM).
The Fed said in a statement that it will ``continue to provide liquidity as necessary to promote the orderly functioning of the financial system,'' repeating reassurances Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has made often since credit problems first surfaced in August 2007. The Fed did not state how large their loan is to Bear Stearns.
Friday's trigger event for selling was The Bear Stearns Companies, Inc. (NYSE: BSC) stunning announcement that -- less than 10 days after senior management officials called liquidity-crunch rumors 'absolutely ridiculous' -- it had accepted a 28-day, emergency, secured loan from the U.S. Federal Reserve via JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM).
The Fed said in a statement that it will ``continue to provide liquidity as necessary to promote the orderly functioning of the financial system,'' repeating reassurances Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has made often since credit problems first surfaced in August 2007. The Fed did not state how large their loan is to Bear Stearns.
Continue reading Dollar falls to record low vs euro on Bear Stearns, credit market woes
Martin Wolf: The financial situation is serious, but remains manageable
The ever-incisive FT columnist Martin Wolf offers a stark and sober analysis of the United States' current financial and economic predicament, but it's an analysis well-worth reviewing, if one has the time. A synopsis is provided here, but first, full warning: read the analysis when you're feeling well and in a good mood, not during other times.
Continue reading Martin Wolf: The financial situation is serious, but remains manageable
Dollar falls below 100 yen to lowest level since 1995
The dollar plunged to a 13-year low versus Japan's yen Thursday, falling below 100 yen to 99.77 yen before recovering somewhat, after the markets received work that the a Carlyle Group fund had moved closer to collapse, Bloomberg News reported Thursday. The dollar also fell against the world's other, major currencies. The dollar fell about one-half cent to $1.5587 versus the euro, about 1 cent to $2.0350 versus the British pound, and about one-half cent to $1.0088 versus the Swiss franc.
The dollar did recover slightly against the yen to 100.12 yen later in the Asia session, but the plunge to 99.77 represented the dollar's lowest level against the yen since October 1995. During that period of dollar depreciation, the Bank of Japan, Japan's central bank, intervened to support the dollar. Thus far, there's little indication the central bank will do the same today, independent currency trader Andrew Resnick told BloggingStocks Thursday.
Continue reading Dollar falls below 100 yen to lowest level since 1995
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