The new earnings season ramps up this week as Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: AA) reports fourth-quarter results. Last week, the Pittsburgh-based producer of aluminum and alumina announced layoffs and production cuts as a reaction to the economic downturn. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect that Alcoa will have swung to its first quarterly loss in years: $0.10 per share. That compares to a profit of $0.36 per share in the same period of the previous year. Revenues for the quarter are expected to have fallen 28.8% from a year ago to $5.3 billion. For 2008, analysts are looking for earnings of $1.40 per share on revenue of $27.6 billion, down from $2.60 per share and $30.8 billion in the previous year. Alcoa missed earnings estimates in three of the past five quarters, by 25.4% in the third quarter. The consensus recommendation of analysts shifted from buy to hold AA during the past quarter. The share price has been climbing in recent weeks, but it is 65.6% lower than a year ago.

Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) is also scheduled to report fourth-quarter results this week, one of a handful of tech stocks to do so. The number one semiconductor maker is expected to post earnings down 86.8% to $0.05 per share, and sales of $8.2 billion, down 23.3% from a year ago. Last week, Intel forecast sales for the quarter of $8.2 billion. The full-year numbers are expected to be marginally lower than a year ago, or $0.94 per share on $37.7 billion. Intel only missed earnings estimates in one of the past five quarters. Shares are about $2.00 higher than the 52-week low, but 37.2% lower than a year ago.

MOST NOTEWORTHY: BT Group, Luminent Mortage, Cognos, Thor Industries and Watson Pharmaceuticals were today's noteworthy upgrades:

• ING Group upgraded shares of BT Group (NYSE: BT) to Hold from Sell to reflect the company's more stable revenue trend and improving cash flow generation.
  
• Deutsche Bank upgraded shares of Luminent Mortgage Capital (NYSE: LUM) to Hold from Sell, as they believe the company's portfolio is beginning to stabilize and its liquidity has improved.
  
• Goldman upgraded Cognos Inc (NASDAQ: COGN) to Buy from Neutral following its Q2 report.
  
• Thor Industries (NYSE: THO) was raised to Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC Capital Markets. The firm's checks indicate strengthening backlog and lower promotional spending.
  
• Roth Capital believes Watson Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: WPI) is about to enter a growth phase with Paul Bisaro at the helm and is positive on Silodosin potential. The firm upgraded shares to Buy from Hold.

OTHER UPGRADES:

• Bank of the Ozarks (NASDAQ: OZRK) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at B. Riley.
  
• Bear upgraded Harman International (NYSE: HAR) to Outperform from Market Perform.
  
• Goldman upgraded Packagaing Corporation (NYSE: PKG) and Smurfit-Stone Container (NASDAQ: SSCC) to Buy from Neutral.
  
• Friedman Billings raised Conseco Inc (NYSE: CNO) to Outperform from Market Perform.