TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the guys at the top don't know what they're doing, and it shows.
AIG's (NYSE: AIG) (Cramer's Take) making everyone's life difficult today. That's in part because AIG had been the biggest proponent of "super senior," meaning they repeatedly said that their collateralized debt obligation (CDO) exposure was of the kind that was intelligent, measured and thoughtful. They talked endlessly about how their due diligence made the difference and that unlike all of the other buyers, they kicked the tires three times and never bought the plain ol' CDOs. Then they brought in professors from Wharton to be sure that even if all heck broke loose and they were being too aggressive, they would be hedged.
They also were the first to give you the percentages of how much could go bad and that even in the worst-case scenario, they were overcapitalized. And, most important, they were insurers, no need to mark to market, they can play it all out.
Plus, they touted their own struggles. They made the point that because of the turmoil at the top, they hadn't bought any bad stuff and stopped buying residential real estate products after 2005. What they did buy -- they assured us in that big teach-in dog-and-pony show in December -- was the extra-special nature of their particular buys and that, unlike everyone else, risk officers scrutinized every single piece of paper that went into their super senior insurance, meaning only the top-top part of a CDO-squared, the part where everything had to default ahead of it; they made a point of how impossible that would be.
In January, Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) made a gutsy move when it decided to purchase Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC). True, it would greatly expand its mortgage footprint, but it would also mean taking on lots of risk.
Of course, since then, the financials went into a swoon. In fact, the US financial system almost imploded because of the Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) debacle.
As a result, there is much skepticism that Bank of America will close its deal, as evident by remarks from an analyst with Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & Co. – Paul Miller – who thinks that Bank of America should forgo the deal.
His belief is that there will be a need for a whopping $30 billion writedown, which would be tough to swallow for Bank of America's shareholders.
Interestingly enough, there are already signs that Bank of America is getting skittish. Last week, the firm was not clear that it would back Countrywide's debt. The upshot was that S&P downgraded the debt to junk status.
And yes, in today's trading, Countrywide's stock is down 10% to $5.35.
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) is paying $6 million in fines to settle SEC charges that the company favored the recommendation of its own mutual funds while purporting to be offering unbiased advice. From the SEC's release on the matter, "The recommendations were supposed to be based upon an objective and unbiased research methodology that was outlined for clients and prospective clients in promotional literature and disclosures. However, in certain instances, Banc of America Investment Services and Banc of America Capital Management focused on subjective criteria in the research process, which favored Nations Funds, and resulted in increased assets under management for Banc of America Capital Management."
15,000 customer accounts were effected, and the settlement will be used to compensate those customers: an average of $400 each. The average "losses" to consumers were quite small, but there's an important principle here for investors to keep in mind: be wary of any advisor who suggests that you buy their products.
If you choose to work with a financial planner/advisor/manager, make sure it's a fee-only one, not someone paid on commission.
Better still, put together your own portfolio of low-cost index mutual funds. For a couple great examples, check out Ben Stein's model portfolios.
If the financial crisis hasn't crippled banks enough, the cost to build bank loan reserves may be just as painful, according to the Wall Street Journal's "Heard on the Street". The need for larger reserves is eating away at earnings and is showing up in first quarter reports for banks such as Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC), whose results took an additional hit because of a $6B addition to its loan loss reserve.
Just four months after Journal parent Dow Jones & Co. was bought by Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation (NYSE: NWS), Wall Street Journal managing editor Marcus Brauchli is expected to resign, according to the Wall Street Journal. Journal publisher Robert Thomson may temporarily take over until a new managing editor is hired.
According to Reuters, activist shareholders in ASM International (NASDAQ: ASMI) believe, by giving more equity to top managers, that they can boost its value by $1.6B.
Private equity firm Corsair Capital and several of the banks bigger shareholders are expected to inject over $6B into Cleveland regional bank National City Corporation (NYSE: NCC), the Wall Street Journal reported.
According to sources, the Financial Times reported that Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) is planning to sell a portion of its 9% stake in China Construction Bank in order to raise capital. However, Bank of America will offset some of the share sales by exercising options it holds to buy additional stakes in the bank at levels that are now well below market rates.
The UK Telegraph reported that the BBC is talking to private equity firms to join in a bid for Virgin Media Inc's (NASDAQ: VMED) Virgin Media Television, which owns a percentage of the UKTV content business that the BBC doesn't already own.
Investment Quality Trends -- one of the most respected newsletters in the advisory field -- uses a proprietary strategy that assesses historic level of stock price to yield; it's goal is to buy those stocks offering the best potential for downside protection and upside appreciation.
Here, editor Kelley Wright explains his methodology and highlights his current "Timely Ten" stocks that best match his time-tested criteria.
"Investors who wished to hold every stock in that we currently rank in the 'Undervalued and Rising Trend' categories, would need to hold one hundred twenty six stocks as of March; clearly too many positions to be practical.
"Our Timely Ten, therefore, is our reasoned expectation based on our methodology and experience for what we believe will perform best over the next five years.
"Do we believe that all 10 will go up simultaneously or immediately? Of course not. Our four decades of research and experience, however, leads us to believe that these stocks, purchased at current Undervalued levels, are well positioned for appreciation.
After hitting a one-year high of $52.96 in October, the stock hit a one-year low of $33.12 in January. This morning, BAC opened at $39.18. So far today the stock has hit a low of $38.76 and a high of $39.30. As of 12:50, BAC is trading at $38.81, down $0.69 (-1.8%). The chart for BAC looks bullish but deteriorating, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will today outline a new plan to better organize the overall bureaucracy that oversees financial markets, the Wall Street Journal reported. Paulson's new proposals include merging or eliminating all together institutions such as the SEC.
According to people familiar with the matter, the Wall Street Journal also reported that Alphonso Jackson, the Housing and Urban Development secretary, is expected to today announce his resignation, a move which could deal a blow to the Bush administration's efforts to combat the crisis in the housing markets.
The Financial Times reported that Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) may take its equity prime brokerage business off the market after receiving weak interest from potential bidders. People close to the situation emphasized that no final decision has been made on the unit.
WEB SITES:
Bloomberg reported that Citigroup Incorporated (NYSE: C) will set up an independent credit card unit, according to sources. The rest of the consumer division, mainly bank branches and non-bank lending, will be divided into five regional groups, according to the inside sources.
After hitting a one-year high of $52.96 in October, the stock hit a one-year low of $33.12 in January. This morning, BAC opened at $40.23. So far today the stock has hit a low of $39.00 and a high of $40.45. As of 12:00, BAC is trading at 39.89, down $1.08 (-2.6%). The chart for BAC looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a May bear-call credit spread above the $47.50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 8.7% return in 8 weeks as long as BAC is below $47.50 at May expiration. B of A would have to rise by more than 18% before we would start to lose money.
CFC has been recently subject to unconfirmed chatter Bill Miller of Legg Mason Value Trust and other major CFC shareholders want Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) to increase its offer for CFC.
BAC announced on Jan. 11, 2008 it will pay CFC shareholders 0.1822 per share of BAC for each share they own. The BAC buyout premium spread is wide at 22% ($7.46).
CFC May option implied volatility of 74 is near its 12-week average of 77 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional risk.
Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Credit Suisse, Bank of America and Bear Stearns were today's noteworthy downgrades:
UBS downgraded Credit Suisse (NYSE: CS) to Neutral from Buy to reflect the company's higher-than-expected write-downs in Q1.
Merrill cut Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) to Sell from Neutral and lowered their estimates to reflect a higher credit loss outlook as they now estimate Bank of America's loan provision will rise to $15B in 2008 from $8.4B in 2007.
Sandler O'Neil downgraded Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) to Sell from Hold citing share premium to deal value of $10.00.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Citigroup lowered Gap (NYSE: GPS) to Hold from Buy.
Tiffany & Co (NYSE: TIF) was downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Countrywide Financial, AstraZeneca, Massey Energy and International Coal were today's noteworthy upgrades:
Wachovia upgraded Countrywide (NYSE: CFC) to Market Perform from Underperform, as they do not expect any other bidders to emerge and for the acquisition by Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) to close.
HSBC upgraded AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) to Overweight from Neutral on valuation and their belief that an agreement with Ranbaxy on Nexium is possible.
Massey Energy (NYSE: MEE) and International Coal (NYSE: ICO) were upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan citing higher coal price forecasts.
With shares of Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) trading at a 35% discount to the price that Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) has agreed to pay for the company, it appears that traders have substantial doubt about the deal's prospects.
Of course, an FBI investigation into the company's accounting is also doing little to boost investor confidence. If the company's financial statements are misleading, Countrywide's estimates of default rates could be off. And if they're off by a lot, the company could be in big trouble.
One banker warned [subscription required] the Wall Street Journal that Countrywide's financial position "isn't a mark-to-market balance sheet," which make the arguments of investors like Jon Wood that the company should be sold for something closer to its $22 book value irrelevant.
TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the guys at the top don't know what they're doing, and it shows.
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