Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK - option chain) stock is lower today after the company reported a second-quarter profit this morning of $176 million, or 15 cents per share. Excluding one-time items, BK earned 23 cents per share, missing analysts' estimates of 53 cents per share. BK also announced its quarterly dividend of 0.09 per share down 62% from the previous 0.24. If you think this stock won't be rising too far in the coming months, then it could be a good time to look at a bearish hedged play on BK.

This morning, BK opened at $27.55. So far today the stock has hit a low of $26.48 and a high of $27.67. As of 11:40, BK is trading at $26.89, down $2.22 (-7.6%). The chart for BK looks bullish and S&P gives BK a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy ranking.

Late Monday, The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation (NYSE: BK) unveiled its plan to sell $1.2 billion worth of stock in order to repay its TARP loan to the U.S. Treasury Department. The company priced 42 million shares at $28.75 a piece, a discount of 3% to the stock's close on Monday.

Even though BK passed the government's stress test with no trouble, the bank is nonetheless eager to raise funds and pay off its debt to the government. Other financial firms selling stock to repay TARP loans include Capital One Financial (NYSE: COF) and U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB).

However, investors seem none too pleased with BK's dilutive stock offering. The security shed 2.5% within the first 10 minutes of today's trading, extending BK's retreat from double-top resistance at the $33 level. The shares first shied away from this region in mid-April, and pulled back from the $33 neighborhood again last week.

It is being reported today in the Business Journal that the safest bank in the United States is Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE: WFC).

According to Global Finance, which will publish its analysis, "World's 50 Safest Banks" in its April issue, international banks dominate the rankings, which show the effects of the sub-prime mortgage meltdown and credit crisis brought on by large Wall Street players. San Francisco-based Wells Fargo is the top-rated U.S. bank at No. 21. European banks now dominate the rankings, with only four U.S. banks among the listing.

For more earnings forecasts, see Peter Cohan's Earnings expectations for 10 banks tell a mixed story.

Thomson Financial expects Bank of New York Mellon (NYSE: BK) to earn $0.69 when it announces its fourth-quarter results on January 17th. That's up 19% from the same period in 2006 when it earned $0.58.

Bank of New York Mellon is a New York-based bank that operates through three segments: Institutional Services, Private Bank & BNY Asset Management, and Corporate & Other. In the last year, its revenues were $5 billion and its net income totaled $2 billion. Its stock has gained 13% in the last year, and it now trades at a P/E of 19.9.

Bank of New York Mellon consistently beats estimates. In the second quarter of 2007, it beat the estimate by 1.6%, and in the third quarter it beat by 9.8%. My hunch is that it will beat expectations.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in Bank of New York Mellon securities.

With the price of Thanksgiving dinner up 11% this year over last, the Fed won't help consumers because it's confident that inflation -- as measured by Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) will range between 1% and 2%. Meanwhile, Washington is happy to create lucrative business deals for Wall Street -- in the form of arrangements to manage and keep records of its Structured Investment Vehicle (SIV) bailout.

What is the Fed smoking? I don't know any personal consumption expenditures that are growing at 1% to 2%. The price of oil has quadrupled since January 2001 to $99.29 a barrel, gasoline prices are up 40% since last year, airfares have more than doubled -- a flight from Boston to Florida that cost $300 last year is now $700 -- and the dollar has lost 61% of its value since January 2001. I guess the Fed has decided to define PCE in a way that conveniently confirms its pro-inflation interest rate policy.

Meanwhile, the Treasury Department has backed a Super-SIV plan to bail out banks, such as Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) which created the $320 billion SIVs industry and invested the proceeds of SIV-issued commercial paper in now-worthless mortgage backed securities (MBSs).