With the results of the bank stress tests looming this afternoon, many people are wondering what the results will hold for the 19 tested banks. One of the banks tested but not named as much is Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ: FITB); its results are of major interest in my hometown of Cincinnati, Ohio.

In the electronic version of the local fishwrap (The Cincinnati Enquirer), Erik Oja from Standar & Poor's was interviewed about FITB's situation. Oja contends that "Fifth Third will be required to raise capital ... How much is the issue."

First of all, let me say that Federal law prohibits the disclosure of all bank "stress tests" and bank examinations, so everything said here is pure hearsay.

Nevertheless, we have some good news: Banks are holding up well under Federal examination. All 19 banks will pass their stress tests. The bad news is that they still may need additional taxpayer money.

Three years ago the Swiss supermarket chain Migros started an in-store bank. We're not talking just installing ATM machines operated by a large banking conglomerate. These were actual full-service bank branches located right down the aisle from the meat and deli counters. All under the supermarket's own brand: Migros Bank. . . . What were they thinking, right?

Well, here's the thing: Migros has been a smashing success. How is that possible? Here's a tiny bank in a supermarket. Its primary role is to service store customers. The bank does not pay top bankers any bonuses. Nor does it engage in high-risk international investments.

Instead, it has a simple (some people might call it outmoded) business model. It collects deposits from customers and then turns them into low-risk loans. With this approach, Migros deposits surged SFr 2.6 billion to SFr 24 billion, even as customers, worried about fallout from the financial crisis, were pulling their money out of leading Swiss banks like UBS AG (NYSE: UBS).

Policy makers and bank officials are hoping it's just a Monday 'pause that refreshes.'

Short-term interests notched a mixed day on Monday, as the London rate for three-month loans in dollars declined for the 24th consecutive day, dropping another 6 basis points to 2.24%.

However, the three-month rate is still 124 basis points above the U.S. Federal Reserve's target interest rate. Further, the five-year average for the three month rate is 22 basis points. In addition, the overnight rate, or LIBOR, rose 2 basis points to 0.35%.

Also, the difference between what banks and the U.S. Treasury pay to borrow dollars for three months, the TED spread, fell another 6 basis points to 170 basis points, which is down from 387 basis points on October 10.

However, the TED spread was 87 basis points before the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy, and the current rate is still 159 basis points above the 11-basis-point, five-year average.

More progress on the credit market front.

The initiative by major central banks to increase the supply of dollars globally to free-up credit continued to move rates in the right direction early Monday -- down -- as rates fell to their lowest level since the failure of Lehman Brothers on September 15.

The London rate for three-month loans in dollars declined for the 16th consecutive day, dropping another 17 basis points to 2.86%. The three-month rate for the euro, the Euribor, also fell 3 basis points to 4.74%. Rates also fell in Asia.

Meanwhile, the London interbank overnight rate, or LIBOR, decreased 2 basis points to 0.39%. In addition, the difference between what banks and the U.S. Treasury pay to borrow dollars for three months, the TED spread, fell to 224 basis points, which is down from 364 basis points on October 10.

Short-term rates, including overnight rates, are key sources of cash for corporations and other large institutions, which use the cash to pay suppliers, make payroll, roll over debt etc. Hence, very high overnight and short-term rates will discourage corporations from conducting business, restricting commerce and slowing the economy, economists say.

Short-term interest rates continue their downward trek.

The effort by major central banks to increase the supply of dollars globally to free-up credit continued to move rates in the right direction Thursday -- down -- as private banks were encouraged by the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and $120 billion in new swap lines with emerging market central banks.

The London rate for three-month loans in dollars declined for the 14th consecutive day, dropping another 23 basis points to 3.19%. Rates also fell in Asia: the three-month rate for Hong Kong, the HIBOR, dropped 15 basis points to 3.39%.

Meanwhile, the London interbank overnight rate, or LIBOR, plunged another 41 basis points to 0.73% - - its lowest level since January 2001.

Short-term rates, including overnight rates, are key sources of cash for corporations and other large institutions, which use the cash to pay suppliers, make payroll, roll over debt etc. Hence, very high overnight and short-term rates will discourage corporations from conducting business, restricting commerce and slowing the economy, economists say.

The dollar and yen surged Friday -- with the yen the clear winner head-to-head versus the dollar -- as traders and institutions added both currencies in a flight-to-safety on concern that all of the world's major economies will fall into a recession at the same time.

The dollar surged 3 cents versus the euro to $1.2642 and 6 cents versus the British pound to $1.5606.

The yen strengthened 4.7 yen to 92.64 versus the dollar and about 10 yen to 144.73 yen versus the British pound.

Institutions raise cash in dollars, yen

Currency Trader Andrew Resnick told BloggingStocks Friday, this morning's flight-to-safety is not solely due to economic fundamentals, which suggest slowing growth in the world's major economies, but also hedge fund / investment fund de-leveraging and closing out of losing stock positions.

"We're seeing many things happen at once, and that's producing these enormous moves. First, the carry trade [where traders borrow yen and invest it elsewhere] is unwinding. Leverage for investing purposes is declining as a trading strategy," Resnick said. "Second, major players are raising cash to cover redemptions, which is also causing stock markets globally to plunge."

"Third, we're seeing a re-pricing of risk to the higher, which is forcing some funds to raise even more cash, boosting the dollar," Resnick said. "Some of the moves are cash-necessary moves, but many are clearly panic-based, with traders exiting positions that have little chance of succeeding if the global economy continues to slow."

The meltdown in short-term interest rates continues unabated.

The effort by major central banks to increase the supply of dollars globally to free-up credit continued to move rates in the right direction Wednesday -- down. The London interbank overnight rate, or LIBOR, fell another 16 basis points to 1.12% -- its lowest level since June 2004. The London rate for three-month loans in dollars declined for an eighth consecutive day, dropping 29 basis points to 3.54%.

In addition, the difference between what banks and the U.S. Treasury pay to borrow dollars for three months, the TED spread, fell to 248 -- down from 434 basis points a week ago.

Short-term rates, including overnight rates, are key sources of cash for corporations and other large institutions, which use the cash to pay suppliers, make payroll, roll over debt etc. Hence, very high overnight and short-term rates will discourage corporations from conducting business, restricting commerce and slowing the economy, economists say.

A settlement may be close in the battle of whether Citigroup (NYSE: C) or Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) ends up owning Wachovia (NYSE: WB). Wells Fargo came in with what was considered a winning bid after Citi thought it already had a deal.

An appellate court has ruled against a stay requested by Citi. Most investors and the Wachovia board appear to think the Wells Fargo deal is better for investors. It also does not involve money from the FDIC which the Citi purchase did. That has to be attractive to the government.

To get the fighting over, it appears that Wells Fargo will get about 75% of the WB deposits and Citi will get the rest. According to Reuters, "Analysts said it may make sense for Citigroup to get at least some assets in the transaction because the bank worked with the FDIC on the deal and supported Wachovia financially last week."

But, with the banking industry falling apart, does either bank want Wachovia? Its assets, especially mortgage-backed paper, could be falling in value every day. Some bank stocks were down as much as 20% yesterday on concerns about their liquidity and ability to stay in business.

Citi and Wells Fargo may be better off letting Wachovia fail and picking up the pieces at a fire sale. It has become that dangerous to be a big US bank taking on assets which could potentially have huge problems. Honoring deals has become a thing of the past. Fear has trumped honor

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Baudouin Prot , CEO of one of Europe's largest and best run banks, BNP Paribas (OTC:BNPQY), said that he believes that the worst of the subprime mess is behind us. What makes this statement important is that BNP is one of the few major banks not to take a serious hit from subprime. The bank estimates that their exposure to subprime is minimal this year and was only about 200 million Euro in '07.

In a Marketwatch report, Prot says: "There are no doubts the crisis isn't over. However, the worst should be over and I believe that in the second semester the crisis may normalize."

While I am skeptical of any bank CEO telling me that the worst is behind us, as they certainly have their own agenda of keeping their stock prices up, when the CEO of a bank that has had little exposure to the crisis tells me that he thinks the tide is turning, I would listen. After all he has an interest in watching some of his competitors fall further, as he could then swoop in and buy on the cheap. The fact that he isn't talking down the industry means that he truly thinks that we are beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

No one seems ready to call a bottom in the financial sector, but with this report, investors may want to start researching the financials that are in the best shape, as we may potentially be near a bottom.

Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 6/29/08.