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Serious Money: Buying the Super Caps, Part 2

Sheldon Liber — Tue, 18 May 2010 10:40:00 EST

Filed under: Microsoft (MSFT), Apple Inc (AAPL), General Electric (GE), Wal-Mart (WMT), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), Bank of America (BAC), Procter and Gamble (PG), PetroChina Co Ltd ADR (PTR), BHP Billiton Ltd ADR (BHP), Wells Fargo (WFC), Serious Money, China Mobile Limited (CHL), Stock Picks

In my search for value investments among the top twelve stocks by capitalization -- the "super caps" -- I began by reviewing the price-to-earnings and price-to-sales ratios. Today we will move on to examine price-to-book (P/B) and price-to-cash flow (P/CF).

If you are one of the lucky ones that benefited from the market's long rise from the depths of Hades and are now looking to rotate into less volatile positions, or you still remain apprehensive and want to stake out a new position, some of these super caps may be just for you.

Continue reading Serious Money: Buying the Super Caps, Part 2

Serious Money: Buying the Super Caps, Part 2 originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 18 May 2010 10:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Race to declare victory for stimulus

Tom Johansmeyer — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 16:40:00 EST

Filed under: Good news, Employees, Economic Data

When you spend $787 billion, there's a lot of pressure to show results. So, there's no surprise that success is being proclaimed across the country. States are saying that they've used the federal stimulus package money to create or save more than 388,000 jobs this year. Teachers, construction workers and other professions have realized the upside of stimulus cash according to reports from 33 states and Puerto Rico, with the remainder of the results being released on Friday.

Of course, the numbers "should be taken with a grain of salt," says Ethan Pollack of the Economic Policy Institute. The states were tasked to count the jobs created or protected, but the results have been of dubious accuracy. This doesn't mean the stats can't provide fodder to people on both sides of the aisle.

Columbia Business School's Frank Lichtenberg says the data shows a solid economic impact, and the Obama administration's Council of Economic Advisors believes the stimulus spending has taken care of between 600,000 and 1.1 million jobs.

And, there are those who disagree.

Continue reading Race to declare victory for stimulus

Race to declare victory for stimulus originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 28 Oct 2009 16:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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G-20 split on stimulus program and financial reform

Connie Madon — Wed, 01 Apr 2009 12:50:00 EST

Filed under: International Markets, Japan, Politics, Financial Crisis

The players at the G-20 summit have opened the curtain on Act 1.

First we have Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso. He holds the position that a strong stimulus program is the only means to pull Europe and the world out of the current crisis. He cited Japan's experience in the 1990s when Japan used a strong stimulus as a way to stimulate growth. He also cited Japan's current stimulus package, which amounts to $720 billion, and he even said that Japan would discuss further stimulus if the need arises.

Standing in opposition is German Chancellor Angela Merkel. She is firmly opposed to more stimulus and demands to know why it is needed. She believes that excessive public spending will not assure a vital recovery.

Continue reading G-20 split on stimulus program and financial reform

G-20 split on stimulus program and financial reform originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 01 Apr 2009 12:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Today's technical outlook: Obama's bad timing

Sam Collins — Thu, 26 Feb 2009 09:30:00 EST

Filed under: Technical Analysis, S and P 500, DJIA, NASDAQ

Since Obama's inauguration, the market seems to have responded negatively to the president's rhetoric, and yesterday was no exception. Within seconds of a White House alert that the president and his chief economic advisers would make an important announcement, stocks headed south.

And by the time that President Obama -- flanked by his team -- began the address at 3:50 p.m. Eastern, the Dow had given up more than 100 points, with investors fearful that the team had decided on a major policy shift.

Despite the poor timing of the White House's news conference, which contained little new information and spooked traders into a flurry of profit-taking, Wednesday's small correction did little to change Tuesday's upside reversal and the probability of further buying.

Continue reading Today's technical outlook: Obama's bad timing

Today's technical outlook: Obama's bad timing originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 26 Feb 2009 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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King had a dream, does Obama have a fantasy?

Sheldon Liber — Wed, 25 Feb 2009 16:50:00 EST

Filed under: International Markets, Other Issues, Rants and Raves, Competitive Strategy, Politics, Headline News, Recession, Financial Crisis

Listening to President Obama's speech last night I was very impressed with his grasp of the vast number of difficult issues that face our nation. I support him in addressing these problems head on -- with optimism, energy and forthrightness. He said, "I get it" -- I believe him.

Now, having laid out a vision for all that ails us, I can't help but think that the president is going to be playing out a fantasy. His epic journey to the White House has reinforced the President's conviction that 'anything' is possible, but the real question this morning is whether 'everything' is possible.

Continue reading King had a dream, does Obama have a fantasy?

King had a dream, does Obama have a fantasy? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 25 Feb 2009 16:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Washington Post Q4 earnings preview

Michael Fowlkes — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 16:50:00 EST

Filed under: Earnings Reports, Forecasts, Products and Services, Newspapers, Magazines, Marketing and Advertising, Presidential Elections, Recession, Financial Crisis

Tomorrow morning before the bell, The Washington Post Company (NYSE: WPO) will have its chance to impress Wall Street when it reports its fourth quarter numbers.

Going into tomorrow's announcement, analysts are expecting the company to show earnings on the quarter of $8.17 per share. Should the company hit this estimate, it would be a decline of 16.5% from its reported $9.79 during its fourth quarter 2007.

Continue reading Washington Post Q4 earnings preview

Washington Post Q4 earnings preview originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 24 Feb 2009 16:50:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Foreclosures halted by two big banks

Michael Fowlkes — Fri, 13 Feb 2009 15:00:00 EST

Filed under: Good news, Consumer Experience, Citigroup Inc. (C), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Economic Data, Politics, Housing, Recession, Financial Crisis

The alarming rate at which foreclosures have been rising over the past year is definitely something to be concerned about. Today, some homeowners are getting a little breathing room as a couple of the biggest banks are granting a moratorium on foreclosures.

As Lita Epstein pointed out yesterday, last month was the tenth month in a row where foreclosures were in excess of 250,000 as 274,399 foreclosures were filed in January. The foreclosure epidemic has been a serious drain on the overall economy, and it is hoped that the Obama administration is going to be able to develop a plan to help keep homeowners in their homes.

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Foreclosures halted by two big banks originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 13 Feb 2009 15:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Big Three use bailout bucks to sue state governments

Bruce Watson — Thu, 29 Jan 2009 12:00:00 EST

Filed under: Ford Motor (F), General Motors (GM), Stocks to Sell, Recession

Looking over the recent history of America's automakers, one theme seems to stand out. Regardless of their situation, the economy, or the issue at hand, the Big Three have an almost preternatural ability to determine the most foolish course of action and pursue it with amazing vigor.

Regardless of whether we're talking about the Ford Motor Company's (NYSE: F) decision to focus its attention on cars (to the detriment of its truck lines), Chrysler's decision to channel stuff its dealerships, or General Motors' (NYSE: GM) decision to sit on its fuel cell cars, Detroit seems determined to misjudge the economy and the customers.

At their best, the three have minimized innovation while milking their successes. At their worst, they have spent time and money on expensive acquisitions or dead-end technologies, to the detriment of their bottom line.

Continue reading Big Three use bailout bucks to sue state governments

Big Three use bailout bucks to sue state governments originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 29 Jan 2009 12:00:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Oil moves higher despite bearish inventory report

Michael Fowlkes — Wed, 28 Jan 2009 18:15:00 EST

Filed under: International Markets, Forecasts, Products and Services, Middle East, Economic Data, Oil, Federal Reserve, Financial Crisis

Oil prices inched up slightly today, despite the fact that inventories swelled much more than the market had anticipated last week. Going into today's inventory report from the U.S. Department of Energy, analysts had been expecting to see an increase in oil inventories last week. But, on average, analysts had been expecting that the increase would be around 3.4 million barrels, and the actual increase was much larger, with a reported 6.2 million increase: a very bearish indicator.

Typically when we see inventories rise so much higher than expected, we would expect to see traders push oil prices lower, but not today. Instead, oil was able to move a bit higher on the day, trading up 58 cents a barrel to $42.16. Earlier in the session prices had been up as high as $43.60.

Continue reading Oil moves higher despite bearish inventory report

Oil moves higher despite bearish inventory report originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 28 Jan 2009 18:15:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Lockheed Martin rises on strong earnings

Michael Fowlkes — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 16:30:00 EST

Filed under: Major Movement, Earnings Reports, Forecasts, Good news, Lockheed Martin (LMT)

Shares of Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE: LMT) have moved strongly higher in today's action after the defense contractor put up better than expected numbers for its fourth quarter this morning.

Going into today's earnings release, analysts had been expecting to see the company show $1.92 per share, but the company came in well above those estimates, with a reported $2.05 a share for its quarter ending December 31.

This morning's good news was slightly balanced by the company's announcement that its upcoming full year 2009 profit was probably going to be lower than it had previously forecast, a result of increasing pension expenses. The market was tough on the company's pension plan in 2008, and drove the plan's value down by 28%. The resulting increase in pension expenses forced Lockheed Martin to lower its full year 2009 profit guidance down to between $7.05 and $7.25 from a previous estimate of between $7.65 and $7.90 per share.

Continue reading Lockheed Martin rises on strong earnings

Lockheed Martin rises on strong earnings originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 22 Jan 2009 16:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Sprint Nextel asks Obama administration for $2 billion

Brian White — Thu, 22 Jan 2009 12:16:00 EST

Filed under: Industry, Sprint Nextel Corp (S)

Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) has urged President Obama's administration to pony up $2 billion dollars to build and enable a nationwide emergency wireless network that could help response teams and first responders immensely when a disaster occurs. While that may not be high on the new President's priority list, it should fall in there somewhere in the next 18 months.

There is still no nationwide advanced communications network to assist responders as soon and efficiently as possible in the wake of a terrorist or natural disaster. Thinking back to overloaded wireless networks (and non-functioning towers) during the Hurricane Katrina disaster, there's the proof that something like this is needed. Is Sprint the right company to build it? It says $2 billion and one year is all that it would take.

Sprint's suggestion says the $2 billion -- which would come from the "bailout money" (whatever that is, heh) -- would make a new emergency network operable for up to five years. It would include 100 satellite-based cells placed strategically around the U.S. and 100,000 ready-to-use handsets to work on the new network. Perhaps this is Sprint's way to continue utilizing its Nextel assets for something other than a network that loses customers every quarter.

Sprint Nextel asks Obama administration for $2 billion originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 22 Jan 2009 12:16:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Should Congress let Obama's Treasury pick slide on taxes?

Jonathan Berr — Mon, 19 Jan 2009 12:37:00 EST

Filed under: Scandals, Economic Data, Recession

The honeymoon between President-elect Barack Obama and the American people may end about the time crews finish cleaning up from tomorrow's inauguration festivities. For now, the American people and Congress are willing to cut the charismatic politician some slack, especially when it comes to his troubled nominee for Treasury Secretary.

Priority number one for the first African-American leader of the free world is the U.S. economy. It's more important than the war in Gaza, more important than education and more important than the fight against terrorism. The U.S. economy is in its worst shape since the early 1980s. If the slump, which has already lasted 12 months, lingers for more than 16 months than it will equal the Great Depression, according to Reuters.

Obama is well aware of the challenges that lie ahead. CNN reports that he is planning to meet with his top aides Wednesday "to map out how to step up his personal lobbying efforts to get Congress to pass his stimulus plan, which has a price tag of $825 billion."

Continue reading Should Congress let Obama's Treasury pick slide on taxes?

Should Congress let Obama's Treasury pick slide on taxes? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 19 Jan 2009 12:37:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Before releasing the next $350 billion, what happened to the first?

Peter Cohan — Tue, 13 Jan 2009 09:48:00 EST

Filed under: Economic Data, Politics, DJIA, Recession

When Hank Paulson scared Congress into passing the Troubled Asset Relief Plan (TARP) last fall, he said that it would be used to buy toxic waste from banks. That never happened. All we know is that $350 billion of our taxpayer money is gone and that most of it went to banks and a bit to the auto industry. What are they doing with our money? How is the government measuring the success of TARP? Is it helping? Until we get those answers, we should not allow more good money to be thrown after bad.

What we have now is a bunch of talk. Sen. Kent Conrad (D-ND) said "Without the first TARP, we may have a Dow at 4,000 right now and the economy in an absolutely free fall." Thanks Kent -- I'd like to see your proof for that claim. Why not Dow 400? Progress on finding out what happened to the money is coming from Sen. Carl Levin (D-MI) who got Treasury to cough up contracts between the government and 10 financial institutions -- by threatening a subpoena.

Continue reading Before releasing the next $350 billion, what happened to the first?

Before releasing the next $350 billion, what happened to the first? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 13 Jan 2009 09:48:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Obama to keep 'death tax' alive

Jonathan Berr — Mon, 12 Jan 2009 14:30:00 EST

Filed under: Law, Economic Data, Financial Crisis

The so-called "death tax" refuses to die.

Despite pleading from Republicans to kill the estate tax, President-elect Barack Obama plans to do no such thing. According to the Wall Street Journal, Obama and congressional leaders "plan to move soon to block the estate tax from disappearing in 2010."

George W. Bush has made eliminating the death tax one of the cornerstones of his economic policy before the current crisis. Critics of the tax dubbed it "the death tax" as if Uncle Sam in standing before the pearly gates of heaven with his hat in his hand. They claim it is a huge burden to small businesses. Nothing can be further from the truth.

Data from experts show that a small number -- several hundred -- small family businesses ever pay the tax. Only individuals with estates of more than $2 million and couples with more than $4 million estates are subject to the tax. Estate taxes are designed -- in theory anyway -- to prevent the U.S. from developing a European-style aristocracy based on familial wealth. That's why Warren Buffett backs the tax.

Continue reading Obama to keep 'death tax' alive

Obama to keep 'death tax' alive originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 12 Jan 2009 14:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Rattner for Car Czar?

Peter Cohan — Fri, 09 Jan 2009 10:45:00 EST

Filed under: International Business Machines (IBM), Politics, Recession

Steve Rattner -- a major Democratic party fundraiser who heads the investment firm Quadrangle Group is the leading candidate for a position that does not formally -- and should never in my view -- exist. That is, Rattner for Car Czar. The Car Czar's job -- if Congress creates it -- will fix the U.S. automobile industry by using the threat of throwing the companies into bankruptcy to force economic "haircuts" on labor unions, dealers, bondholders and others.

I worked with Rattner in the Kerry presidential campaign and hold him in high regard. He worked to raise money for Hillary Clinton and when she did not win the nomination Rattner raised $100,000 for Barack Obama. And Rattner does not just serve Democrats -- reportedly he is managing independent New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg's $13 billion fortune. I find that feat to be a remarkable testimony to Rattner's investment acumen.

Nevertheless, I think it would be better to find a different way to use Rattner's talents. If the Car Czar position does get created, it should go to an individual with demonstrated experience turning around large organizations in deep trouble. The person who comes to mind is Louis Gerstner who fixed International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM). Gerstner is not a car guy but he knows how to fix a big organization and could bring in automotive expertise as needed.

Rattner would be an asset to Obama's administration, but if there must be a Car Czar -- find a better fit.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College. His eighth book is You Can't Order Change: Lessons from Jim McNerney's Turnaround at Boeing. He has no financial interest in IBM securities.

Rattner for Car Czar? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 09 Jan 2009 10:45:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Obama: What capital gains tax?

Sheldon Liber — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 15:42:00 EST

Filed under: Personal Finance, Politics, Presidential Elections

When President-elect Barack Obama was Candidate Obama on the campaign trail, there was talk of raising the tax level on long term capital gains from the current 15% to as high as 29% but soon became 25%. It has not been that high for quite some time.

Obama was challenged by this throughout the campaign and it was one of the questions he faced in the presidential debates. He had to answer a direct question as to why he would raise this particular tax in light of evidence that the reduced rate had benefited the government coffers and investors. He replied that he was interested in balancing the budget and fairness in the system, but that he would be weighing all of the issues under discussion and he might temper his opinion.

Well, as I recall, toward the end of the campaign he tempered his opinion all the way down to 20%.

Now what brings this to mind as we close out the year is that I have been reviewing 2008 with my accountant and making projections for the purpose of last minute adjustments I might need to consider. As we were discussing capital gains for 2008 we, like many of you reading this, discovered there would not be any. The losses outweighed the gains.

Then I started thinking about Obama wanting to raise the tax and realized he could raise the tax to 100% because this year and next many people may not be paying any due to their accumulated losses. As a matter of fact, in extreme cases some folks may not be paying any capital gains even if he is in office eight years.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money.

Obama: What capital gains tax? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 18 Dec 2008 15:42:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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The Madoff scandal gets weirder and weirder

Jonathan Berr — Thu, 18 Dec 2008 15:19:00 EST

Filed under: Law, Scandals

Regulators did not just drop the ball in the Bernard Madoff scandal. They never held it in the first place.

According to the Wall Street Journal, the SEC discovered in 2006 that Madoff had misled the agency about how he managed customers' money. Moreover, investor Henry Markopolos spent the past decade trying to convince the agency that Madoff's returns were too good to be true. Markopolos and his friends tried to replicate his returns using complex mathematical models and could not.

Barron's reported that no one understood how Madoff made money and that the investors were pressured to never reveal that they had money with him. Ever hear of an asset manager who did not want rich people to brag about how well they did with them? But people did not need to try that hard to figure out that Madoff is a crook. All they needed was common sense.

Anyone who promises investors consistent double-digit returns is either a crook or a fool. The stock market does not work that way. It never has. The one aspect of this scandal that baffles me is how Madoff was able to convince sophisticated people at banks, charities and some of the nation's wealthiest families that the reality of the market did not apply to them.

Continue reading The Madoff scandal gets weirder and weirder

The Madoff scandal gets weirder and weirder originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 18 Dec 2008 15:19:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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People like Obama but don't expect much

Jonathan Berr — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 11:38:00 EST

Filed under: Economic Data, Politics, Recession

Most Americans like Barack Obama even though they don't think he will do them much good.

According to a Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll, more than half of respondents say that the president-elect will not be able to help their personal finances. Almost seven in 10 expect Obama to accomplish only a few of his campaign goals.

Perhaps their cynicism is justified. All of the available data indicates that the economy is going to get worse. Retail sales are expected to be dismal this holiday season. Housing probably will not bottom until next year at the earliest.

Interestingly, people are willing to give Obama the benefit of the doubt. People who responded to the poll say Obama makes them feel "hopeful," "optimistic" and "proud," which is incredible. People know the economy is bad, so bad that they believe a man with limited experience in Washington can do a better job than the president who has lead the country for the past eight years.

"Outside of the economy, Americans rate the Iraq War, followed by health care, as the most pressing issues, with energy and tax cuts trailing," Bloomberg says. "And more than two-thirds trust the president-elect on national security, even though he was criticized for his lack of experience in that area during the campaign."

We are living in interesting times.

People like Obama but don't expect much originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 10 Dec 2008 11:38:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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Illinois governor's corruption charges touch Obama, Tribune

Jonathan Berr — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 11:40:00 EST

Filed under: Deals, Scandals, Politics

Police today arrested Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich and his chief of staff on federal corruption charges that both touch the Tribune bankruptcy and the incoming administration of his fellow Illinois Democrat Barack Obama.

According to the Chicago Tribune, the governor and his Chief of Staff John Harris allegedly demanded the firing of Chicago Tribune editorial board members responsible for editorials critical of Blagojevich in exchange for state help with the sale of Wrigley Field, the Chicago Cubs baseball stadium owned by Tribune Co. That takes pettiness to a new level.

Finding a new owner for the ivy-covered baseball temple is in the best interest of all taxpayers. I can't understand why any political leader with an ounce of integrity would want to hinder the sale, even to the extraordinarily obnoxious Mark Cuban. Then I read a little further.

The Tribune reports Blagojevich and Harris have been accused in a "wide-ranging criminal conspiracy" to gain financial benefits for the governor, members of his family and his campaign fund in exchange for state appointments, state jobs and state contracts.

Continue reading Illinois governor's corruption charges touch Obama, Tribune

Illinois governor's corruption charges touch Obama, Tribune originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 09 Dec 2008 11:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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GE, Cisco and Emcor Group -- plays on Obama's $900 billion infrastructure boost?

Peter Cohan — Tue, 09 Dec 2008 10:40:00 EST

Filed under: Cisco Systems (CSCO), General Electric (GE), Stocks to Buy

President-elect Barack Obama plans to offer a $900 billion infrastructure investment plan, according to an economic adviser. Three companies are among the beneficiaries of that plan. And it might be worth looking at them as investments.

The advisor, James Galbraith, recommends spending of more than $900 billion to rewire classrooms and libraries for high-speed Internet service and repair bridges and highways. And the companies that would benefit from this spending are high tech: General Electric (NYSE: GE) -- thanks to its Ecomagination program, Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) which makes communication infrastructure gear and Emcor Group (NYSE: EME) which makes systems for voice and data, electrical power and lighting.

GE could get orders for its green products. It spends $1.4 billion a year to develop energy-efficient products such as locomotives, jet engines and power-plant equipment, including wind turbines and solar power. It might also benefit from water treatment, lighting efficiency, "smart grid" electrical distribution and health-care information systems. Cisco stock rose 8.2% on the Nasdaq yesterday -- more than twice the average increase -- due to the perception that it will benefit from this infrastructure plan.

Let's hope Obama's infrastructure plan meets the high expectations built into these stock price increases.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He owns GE stock and has no financial interest in the other securities mentioned.

GE, Cisco and Emcor Group -- plays on Obama's $900 billion infrastructure boost? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 09 Dec 2008 10:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

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