Last week, JA Solar Holdings Co. Ltd. (NASDAQ: JASO) posted a quarterly loss and lowered its guidance. But as interest in alternative energy continues to grow, analysts polled by Thomson Financial are still looking for good things from solar energy concerns scheduled to report earnings this week.
Strong growth at Trina Solar Ltd. (NYSE: TSL) in the third quarter prompted it to lift its guidance back in October. Analysts expect the Chinese company to post profits that are 76.3% higher than a year ago, or $1.18 per share on revenues of $268.4 million (+225.0%). Though Trina Solar missed estimates in the second quarter, analysts on average recommend buying TSL. Shares are down 81.4% from a year ago and trading near an all-time low.
Earnings of rival LDK Solar Co. Ltd. (NYSE: LDK) are expect to have risen 47.9% to $0.71 per share on revenues of $486.7 million (+206.6%). Also based in China, LDK has not missed estimates in recent quarters; in fact, it blew past expectations in the second quarter. Yet the consensus recommendation is to hold LDK. Like Trina Solar, LDK's shares are trading near an all-time low; the share price has fallen 50.0% in the past year.
Analysts anticipate third-quarter earnings for Canadian Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: CSIQ) to be a whopping 96.3% higher than a year ago, or $0.54 per share on revenues of $248.0 million (+154.5%). The company easily topped estimates in the previous quarter. ReneSola Ltd. (NYSE: SOL) and Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd. (NYSE: STP) are also expected to report earnings growth of 29.7% ($0.37 per share) and 23.8% ($0.42 per share), respectively. All three of these stocks reached 52-week lows last week, and all are considered buys.
So, how will booksellers such as Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS), Borders Group (NYSE: BGP), and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) fare during the holiday season? It's an interesting question, one which is examined in an article at The New York Times. The piece talks about how the current recession seems to be affecting consumers and their desire to buy books. At the beginning of the article, two shoppers are browsing in a bookstore -- one buys, the other doesn't. Both have been affected by the bad economy. What are we to make of this?
I'll give you my take on things. Books, unfortunately, are simply not so glamorous these days. And I do think that booksellers are going to have a hard time this holiday season. With all the competition from video games and other media, the printed page just isn't that exciting to a lot of consumers. I don't think that books will be a top priority as the wallet continues to get squeezed and while job security remains an issue. Our attention spans have been cut so short these days, and they're only getting shorter. In an era of MTV quick-edits and PowerPoint presentations, 100,000-word diversions don't feel so diverting anymore.
Books are probably even less exciting to young people. Seriously, how many kids have books on their Christmas lists this year? They may want the latest Blu-ray cartoon from Disney (NYSE: DIS), or the latest Call of Duty game from Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ: ATVI), but I'm not so sure they want the latest Stephen King novel (as for me, I picked up King's latest short-story collection Just After Sunset at my local Barnes & Noble). Many kids have been introduced to the joys of reading through the Harry Potter series, but I don't think Potter will be working his magic this season. If parents do cut back this year on presents, I figure they're going to err on the side of making sure that all the non-book gifts are acquired.
Is there anything the booksellers can do about this?
Barnes & Noble Inc. (NYSE: BKS) surprised Wall Street today by reporting quarterly earnings that did not suck as bad analysts expected, mainly because it was able to control costs. The question is whether this is sustainable.
Net income at the world's largest bookseller fell to $15.4 million, or 27 cents a share, from $18.05 million, or 26 cents, a year earlier. Sales dropped 1.6% to $1.2 billion from a year earlier when J.K. Rowling's Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows was flying off the shelves. Barnes & Noble store sales decreased 1.6% to $1.1 billion, with comparable store sales decreasing 4.7%. Barnes & Noble.com sales rose 3.6% to $99.8 million.
Excluding a one-time tax benefit, profit was 15 cents, five cents ahead of the 10-cent average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. It was also higher than the company's guidance of 8 cents to 13 cents a share. Gross margins were stronger because of the greater utilization rates of its distribution centers and a lower markdown rate. Selling and administrative expenses fell in the quarter.
Of course, Barnes & Noble will continue to struggle as consumers cut back on their discretionary purchases. Moreover, Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) is not going anywhere soon. The company expects to lose 10 to 15 cents in the third quarter. It also lowered its full-year comparable same store sales guidance from "slightly negative to a decrease in the low single digits." The company is maintaining its full-year earnings guidance of $1.70 to $1.90.
At this rate, the company may be able to ride out the economic downturn until it can find a private equity buyer which is about the only hope for shareholders.
Russian business runs on different rules. News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) Rupert Murdoch, who has been doing business in China for years, is nervous about his Russian enterprises. This morning, the FBI announced it had rounded up a ring of data thieves, many from former Soviet Union countries. And then there's the little matter of BP-TNK, a joint venture between BP (NYSE: BP) and a Russian company, whose Russian shareholders are booting out its Western executives so they can take over the operation.
Here's what Silicon Alley insider reports Murdoch had to say about doing business in Russia: "We have great growing business there but just -- this is purely me, I'm sorry, I'm -- the more I read about investments in Russia, the less I like the feel of it. The more successful we'd be, the more vulnerable we'd be to have it stolen from us, so there we sell now."
In case you missed it, The Detroit Free Press reports that an international ring of data thieves used wardriving -- the practice of stealing data from unprotected Wi-Fi networks -- to take 40 million identities, use the information to print fake ATM cards, and steal millions of dollars. The corporate victims include customers of TJX (NYSE: TJX), Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS), and OfficeMax (NYSE: OMX). Five of the 11 defendants are from former Soviet Union countries -- "one is from Estonia, three are from Ukraine, and one is from Belarus."
The Wall Street Journalreports (subscription required) of upcoming releases this summer such as Andrew Davidson's The Gargoyle, New York Times reporter David Carr's memoir The Night of the Gun, and Ron Suskind's The Way of the World: A Story of Truth and Hope in an Age of Extremism.
There's a separate article on the release of Stephenie Meyer's book Breaking Dawn, which The Journal calls a "vampire romance novel." Borders Group (NYSE: BGP) said it has sold 250,000 copies in the first 24 hours following the book's release.
That's an impressive number, and it may be some cause for hope for shareholders who have taken a beating in booksellers like Borders, Barnes and Noble (NYSE: BKS) and Books-a-Million (NASDAQ: BAMM).
But don't get too excited. Since the first American edition of the first Harry Potter book in October of 1998, shares of Scholastic (NASDAQ: SCHL), a specialty publisher of children's books, have gone from around $20 per share to their current price of $26 -- a gain of 30% over the course of a decade. Not exactly something to get excited about, especially considering it's one of the bestselling books of all time, ever.
The bookstores might get a temporary jolt from late sumer and fall hits, but the long-term fundamentals of the industry will drive results. A new CD from Eminem -- or even The Beatles for that matter -- wouldn't be enough to save a company like Trans World Entertainment (NASDAQ: TWMC). For bookstores, that means the lower prices and wider selection of Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN), or conveniences of stores like Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT), as well as the onset of digital delivery are the factors investors have to look at.
And even vampire romance novels can't compete with those.
When it comes to companies lacking in any kind of strategic direction, it's hard to top Border Group (NYSE: BGP). In the midst of its efforts to sell itself, Borders recently launched its own e-commerce site to compete with better-financed, and just plain better, rivals like Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) and Barnes and Noble (NYSE: BKS).
Browsing NewYorkTimes.com this morning, I noticed a banner ad for "the new Borders.com: Free shipping on orders over $25."
Man, that should do a lot to lure customers away from Amazon and Barnes & Noble. Oh, wait. No it won't, because both of those sites offer exactly the same deal. And, just to add insult to injury, so does Books-A-Million (NASDAQ: BAMM).
Basically, Borders has a weak balance sheet and, in the midst of its efforts to put its shareholders out of their misery with a sale, is blowing money on capital expenditures that will give the company the same service as competitors: meaning that most strategic buyers won't pay any extra for the e-commerce site.
The stock's low price has attracted brilliant investors like William Ackman, but given that the company is continuing to make value-destroying decisions, I don't think it's a stock investors should go near.
New York-based Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS) reported Thursday that it lost $2.22 million, or 4 cents per share, in the quarter ended May 3. That compares with a loss of $1.67 million, or 3 cents per share, in the year-ago period. Excluding a charge related to the settlement of a long-standing dispute with the State of California, the bookseller would have earned 5 cents per share.
The company said revenues edged up to $1.16 billion in the first quarter, from $1.15 billion in the year-ago period. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial had expected a profit of 5 cents per share on revenues of $1.17 billion.
Barnes & Noble also reported that same-store sales declined 1.5% in the period. Based on the challenging retail environment, the company said that it expects same-store sales for the second quarter to decline as well from the year-ago period, when Harry-Potter-mania was in full swing. It also projected that full-year same-store sales would be negative.
Barnes & Noble Inc (NYSE: BKS) is considering a bid for rival bookseller Borders Group Inc (NYSE: BGP), the Wall Street Journal reported, a move which would allow Barnes & Noble to improve profits and reduce costs. Antitrust issues could prevent a deal.
The Wall Street Journal also reported that Carl Icahn's effort to remove Yahoo! Inc's (NASDAQ: YHOO) board has picked up new supporters, including T. Boone Pickens, who acquired a 0.75% stake. Some Yahoo shareholders believe it is still too early to predict whether Icahn will be able to carry July 3's shareholder vote.
A Financial Times investigation discovered that Moody's Corporation (NYSE: MCO) incorrectly awarded top ratings to billions of dollars to debt products due to an error in its computer models. Moody's said it is in the process of "conducting a thorough review" of the rating of the constant proportion debt obligations, which should have been up to four notches lower.
OTHER PAPERS:
According to the people briefed on the matter, the New York Times reported that the buyout of Penn National Gaming Inc (NASDAQ: PENN) by Fortress Investment Group (FIG) and Centerbridge Parters may involve revised terms. The sources said the negotiations may "delay or even imperil" the deal.
On Thursday, I expressed skepticism about Borders Group Inc.'s (NYSE: BGP) efforts to sell itself in the face of deteriorating fundamentals and a problematic balance sheet.
The New York Times reports on Wall Street speculation over the past year that Borders might sell itself to its larger rival, Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS). "A combination of the biggest and second-biggest booksellers has long been believed to be an invitation for regulatory scrutiny."
On a conference call, Barnes & Noble COO Mitchell S. Klipper said that, if approached by Borders, he would "certainly take a good look at the company and put it under review." The company's chairman, Leonard Riggio, told the Wall Street Journal (subscription required), "I think it would be the height of irresponsibility for us not to look at something presented to us. If they want us to take a look, we would be pleased to do so. We also feel we would be obliged to do so."
Well of course they would. Why wouldn't they take a good look at the company? But ultimately, I think that the better-run Barnes & Noble will take one look at Borders and decide it doesn't want anything to do with it. The brick-and-mortar book industry is in serious trouble -- there's no real antidote to competition from lower-cost providers like Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) and even Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT). Borders is looking to set up its own e-commerce site, but I can't even imagine what competitive advantage it will have going up against an established rival like Amazon.
Barnes & Noble is faring reasonably well and, given the long-term problems facing the industry, I just can't see any reason for the company to double down on brick-and-mortar book selling, taking on debt to acquire an ailing brand that would need more money to be pumped into it.
Most mergers and acquisitions don't create value, and I doubt that this one would be any exception. Given the strong track record of Barnes & Noble's management, I don't think they'll make that mistake.
Borders Group, Inc. (NYSE: BGP), the arch-rival of bookseller Barnes & Noble, Inc. (NYSE: BKS), is struggling mightily. It may not go away, but it seems that there's a good chance that it will continue its business imperatives under new owners. According to a press release issued by the company, as well as this AP article, the company appears to want to sell itself at this point because, to be blunt, management appears to have failed at its job of preserving and growing shareholder value; it also has failed against online entities such as Amazon.com, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMZN) and other retailers such as Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT). Why, as I write this, the stock is down 39%, and it is below $5 per stub. Yikes! I've been feeling pain with some of my financial stocks lately, but I feel bad for Borders shareholders, that's one torturous drop in value.
The retailer just isn't doing well; in fact, it decided to drop its dividend payout because it no longer can afford it. I'm sure shareholders were expecting such a move, but when it happens, it's always such a slap in the face. Borders is having cash issues, management doesn't seem to be confident in its current business structure, it missed earnings estimates, revenues are down, etc. Funny thing is, I actually prefer the shopping atmosphere of my local Borders store over my local Barnes & Noble outlet. Can't always go by personal experience, I guess.
Well, if one wants to speculate, one could buy some lottery tickets -- I mean, shares -- in Borders Group. I won't. Yes, catalysts could come down the line for the company, but for now, the market seems to be telling investors that this is one to stay away from.
Disclosure: I don't own any of the companies mentioned here; positions can change at any time.
Last week, 
So, how will booksellers such as 
Russian business runs on different rules. 
When it comes to companies lacking in any kind of strategic direction, it's hard to top 
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On Thursday, 
Big 3 CEOs drive to Washington to suck up to Congress
GM and Ford ready weak pitches for taxpayer bucks
Cramer on BloggingStocks: A troika of opportunity and trouble 
