If a vote were held Thursday or Friday, the U.S. Treasury's $700 billion bailout bill would probably pass both chambers of the U.S. Congress, but by narrow margins and with a) an equity stake for U.S. taxpayers for every company that receives assistance, b) a cap on executive compensation, and c) oversight provisions.

Once the bailout work is done, should the U.S. Congress also pass a homeowners assistance bill to help more homeowners with at-risk / burdensome mortgages refinance to secure a lower interest rate?

As BloggingStocks' Jon Berr pointed out Monday, while lawmakers (and no doubt taxpayers) do not want to reward housing speculators, there's a large pool of borrowers who will be able to pay their mortgages if they can get out of high interest rate notes, and other burdensome adjustable rate mortgages, and refinance at a low, 30-year fixed rate.

While it's true the U.S. Government and taxpayers would end up subsidizing refinanced mortgages if the government receives interest that's less than it could by investing the money elsewhere, the costs of foreclosure - leading to bond defaults - leading to banking institution stress / systemic stress will undoubtedly be far greater, so says economist David H. Wang.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• The Wall Street Journal's "Fund Track" reported that some banks struggling to raise capital may sell their money management units. National City Corporation (NYSE: NCC) is selling its Allegiant Funds, Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ: FITB) is considering selling its Fifth Third Asset Management, and KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY) will possibly sell its Victory Capital Management unit.
• The Wall Street Journal also reported that Andrew Cuomo, the New York state Attorney General, is preparing to file civil securities-fraud charges against UBS AG (NYSE: UBS), possibly as early as this week. Sources said the lawsuit may include allegations of malfeasance by senior UBS executives.

WEB SITES:

• Bloomberg reported that money manager John Paulson, the owner of Paulson & Co., is launching a hedge fund that will provide capital to financial firms which have been damaged by the housing crisis. Paulson, who wants to open the fund by December, used bets against the U.S. housing market to help him earn $3.7B in 2007.
• After U.S. lawmakers reached a deal on legislation to alleviate the housing recession, the House of Representatives will today vote on a rescue plan for Fannie Mae -- Federal National Mortgage Association (NYSE: FNM) -- and Freddie Mac -- Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (NYSE: FRE). Representative Barney Frank said that the package, which increases the likelihood Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will get the authority to inject capital into the two, is "fully acceptable," Bloomberg reported.
• Oil trading losses forced SemGroup LP, which used to be America's 12th largest private company, to declare bankruptcy yesterday. Reuters noted that SemGroup LP's parent company is SemGroup Energy Partners LP (NASDAQ: SGLP).

Democratic congressional leaders do not think the Fed's new mortgage rules go far enough and have indicated that they are considering taking power away from the Fed when it comes to protecting consumers, according to a story in today's Wall Street Journal. Senator Chris Dodd, Chairman of the Senate Banking Committee and one of the key leaders on this issue, told the Journal that the Fed's moves are a "clear signal that legislation is necessary to help protect homeowners from abusive and predatory lending practices." He also indicated that he is considering reexamining legislation he introduced last week to take power away from the central bank when it comes to consumer protection.

Rep. Barney Frank, who is chairman of the House Banking Committee, wasn't any happier with what he heard form the Fed. He told the Journal, "We now have confirmation of two facts we have known for some time. One, the Federal Reserve System is not a strong advocate for consumers, and two, there is no Santa Claus. People who are surprised by the one are presumably surprised by the other."

Bankers, seeing the writing on the wall and hoping that the Fed's changes will pacify critics, primarily supported the new rules. According to the Journal, the American Financial Services Association called the Fed's rules "measured" and the Independent Community Bankers of America said it was "an important step." But, the powerful American Bankers Association still hopes it can sway the Fed to ease the rules. It said some parts of the proposal were too rigid and "could make it harder for bankers to tailor products for their customers."

Poker fans rejoice! House Financial Services Committee Chairman, Barney Frank, introduced a bill on Thursday that would allow Americans to gamble online once again. The bill would allow online gambling companies to apply for licenses to accept bets from U.S. citizens. Frank referred to the ban on gambling as "an inappropriate interference on the personal freedom of Americans" and called internet gambling a victimless crime. The WTO has previously declared the U.S. ban illegal.

Congratulations to Mr. Frank for standing up on this issue. I will give a piece of pie to anyone who can make a compelling case as to why it isn't hypocritical for states to offer lotteries while simultaneously cracking down on people who play online poker. How can you muster up moral outrage when you're selling the same product? This is like Hostess accusing McDonald's of marketing unhealthy foods.

If you're a political junkie closely following this issue and counting probable votes, here are a couple stocks that could be affected:

Cryptologic (NASDAQ: CRYP) - This company provides the software platforms for numerous online gambling ventures. The stock took a beating when Americans were banned from internet gambling, but has since recovered and is close to its 52-week high.

World Poker Tour Enterprises (NASDAQ: WPTE) - This company produces the World Poker Tour Series on the Travel Channel (soon to be moving to the Game Show Network) and also operates an online gambling site. While the company hasn't targeted U.S. consumers in the past, that could possibly change.