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Today's technical outlook: Day of decision after support lines broken

One by one, the key indices appear to be breaking their support lines.

The Dow Industrials were the first to break earlier this week and yesterday set a new bear market closing low. Now the S&P 500 has fallen through its support zone at 800-820 and so has the NYSE Composite. Only the Nasdaq is holding above its January low, while the others are in a full test of the November bear market bottoms.

For several days, I've been comparing this week's market action with the week of Nov. 17, when the market broke to new lows and then reversed. We've discussed the closing low of Nov. 20 and the subsequent reversal on Nov. 21, with its new intraday low, the similarity in the volume, the similar stochastic readings and so on.

Continue reading Today's technical outlook: Day of decision after support lines broken

Gold prices drop and take several gold stocks to new 52 week lows

Gold is trading down $19 today, and pulling several major gold stocks down to new 52 week lows in reaction to the drop in the precious metal.

If you follow gold prices, you know that the past month has not been kind on the commodity, with prices falling from above $900 an ounce a few weeks ago down to its current price of $716.30. Earlier in today's session we actually saw prices trading much lower, breaking through the psychological $700 barrier, and falling all the way down to $695.20 an ounce. This is the first time in 13 months that gold has been under $700, and marks a huge drop from the highs it set back on March 14, when it was at historic highs above $1000 an ounce.

Typically, you would think that recessionary times in America would lead to a rise in gold, but this time around things are a bit different. Not only is America in hard times, but countries all around the world are dealing with their own economic slowdowns, which in turn is pushing currencies around the world lower. As this happens, the dollar, despite the current state of the American economy, has been strengthening against its foreign counterparts. As we all know, gold trades inversely proportionate to the dollar, so any strength in the American currency will result in gold prices dropping, and that is part of what we are seeing right now.

Continue reading Gold prices drop and take several gold stocks to new 52 week lows

Barrick Gold (ABX) driven higher by rising gold futures

ABX logoBarrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) shares are trading higher today as gold futures have advanced by almost 2%. Gold is being propped up by yet another record high for crude, which investors expect to drive inflation. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on ABX.

After hitting a one-year low of $28.89 in August, the stock hit a one-year high of $54.74 in March. ABX opened this morning at $46.42. So far today the stock has hit a low of $46.00 and a high of $47.00. As of 12:05, ABX is trading at $46.55, up $1.05 (2.3%). The chart for ABX looks neutral and improving, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an August bull-put credit spread below the $37.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.3% return in just seven weeks as long as ABX is above $37.50 at August expiration. Barrick would have to fall by more than 19% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Continue reading Barrick Gold (ABX) driven higher by rising gold futures

Barrick Gold (ABX) rises with gold futures

ABX logoBarrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) shares are trading higher today as gold futures are on the move higher. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on ABX.

After hitting a one-year low of $27.79 last June, the stock hit a one-year high of $54.74 in March. ABX opened this morning at $41.06. So far today the stock has hit a low of $40.70 and a high of $41.50. As of 12:10, ABX is trading at $40.73, up 0.29 (0.7%). The chart for ABX looks neutral and improving, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bull-put credit spread below the $32.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 16.3% return in just four months as long as ABX is above $32.50 at October expiration. Barrick would have to fall by more than 20% before we would start to lose money.

ABX hasn't been below $35 at all since August and has shown support around $38 recently. This trade could be risky if the dollar recovers and gold futures fall, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the support the stock might find around $37 where it has formed a bottom over the past seven months.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in ABX.

Best of breed in the gold sector

With gold trading down sharply from its highs, Keith-Fitzerald offers a special report on gold stocks in Money Morning, highlighting three companies that he consider to be the "very best of the best."

"Gold remains a key profit opportunity -- especially if inflation, or even stagflation, is taking hold. It should also help that economic uncertainty is escalating. However, since the economic outlook has grown more uncertain, we've decided to our recommended list down to just three picks:

"The StreetTracks Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) is an ETF that tracks the price of gold directly, making it the simplest way to invest in the yellow metal via an ETF. And with a market cap approaching $17 billion, this fund has ample liquidity.

"Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX) is a Toronto-based company with mostly North American production, as well as properties in South America and Africa, and some copper and zinc add-ons. It has a $38 billion market capitalization, so there's plenty of liquidity.

Continue reading Best of breed in the gold sector

Barrick Gold (ABX) on the rise with gold futures

ABX logoBarrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX) shares are rising today, helped by higher gold futures. Gold futures are not back up to their record $1,000+ prices, but are recovering after a dip down below $900 in late March. The front-month contract is up almost 2% today, nearing $950 possibly due to investor worries about inflation as the dollar continues to struggle against foreign currencies. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on ABX.

After hitting a one-year low of $27.71 in May, the stock hit a one-year high of $54.74 in March, ABX opened this morning at $44.77. So far today the stock has hit a low of $44.75 and a high of $46.20. As of 12:40, ABX is trading at $45.63, up $2.16 (4.9%). The chart for ABX looks bearish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a May bull-put credit spread below the $37.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in just one month as long as ABX is above $37.50 at May expiration. Barrick would have to fall by more than 18% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Continue reading Barrick Gold (ABX) on the rise with gold futures

Gold stocks: Technical targets

Technician Yola Edwards had forecast a rise in gold to $1032; it rose to $1034, before correcting. In her Edwards Charts she offers a technical outlook for gold, Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) and Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX).

"Gold exceeded my $1032.50 level by posting an intraday high just shy of $1034 but it turned on a dime and plunged over a US$100. The daily chart now indicates prices are oversold according to the MACD and RSI as the price bounces off support at the lower Bollinger band.

"However, a negative bias remains. A corrective wave four will retrace to the top of wave 1 at about US$865 if the decline holds true to theory, which should be viewed as a buying opportunity as the fifth advancing wave should see gold rally to about $1145 over the next four months.

"Goldcorp has traced out a 'U' shaped bottom over the past two years and is now in a consolidation phase. Since pulling back from its high two weeks ago the month ended with a type of spinning top which halted the previous decline.

Continue reading Gold stocks: Technical targets

Barrick Gold (ABX) on the move as gold approaches $1,000

ABX logoBarrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) shares are rising today as front-month gold futures are making a charge at $1000. Gold is rising in part due to the weakening US dollar, as it is seen as a hedge against such movement. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on ABX.

After hitting a one-year low of $26.94 last March, the stock has risen steadily all year to hit a one-year high of $54.00 in January. ABX opened this morning at $51.98. So far today the stock has hit a low of $51.61 and a high of $53.39. As of 12:55, ABX is trading at $53.10, up 1.92 (3.8%). The chart for ABX looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a positive 4 STARS (out of 5) buy rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an April bull-put credit spread below the $42.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 4.2% return in just one and a half months as long as ABX is above $42.50 at April expiration. Barrick would have to fall by more than 19% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.

Continue reading Barrick Gold (ABX) on the move as gold approaches $1,000

Option update: Barrick Gold volatility flat as gold approaches $1000

Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) closed at $53.55 Monday.

Gold is recently up 0.30% to $987.20 according to Bloomberg.

ABX option implied volatility of 42 is near its 26-week average near according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional risk.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Barrick Gold (ABX) lifted by rebounding gold futures

ABX logoBarrick Gold Corp. (NYSE: ABX) shares are rising today as gold futures prices are soaring. Gold could be rising as investors continue to show concern about economic conditions around the world. Gold futures reclaimed most of yesterday's losses in early trading. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on ABX.

After hitting a one-year low of $26.94 in March, the stock hit a one-year high of $54.00 last month. ABX opened this morning at $49.23. So far today the stock has hit a low of $48.89 and a high of $49.55. As of 11:15, ABX is trading at $48.93, up $1.20 (2.5%). The chart for ABX looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a negative 2 STARS (out of 5) sell rating.

Continue reading Barrick Gold (ABX) lifted by rebounding gold futures

Gold stocks set new highs as gold continues to climb

As Michael Fowlkes discussed yesterday, gold prices have been rising strongly over the past few days as fears about a possible recession increased and the U.S. dollar continues to weaken. Gold for February delivery rose in the previous session $9.10 to end at $869.10 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. There have been a handful of notable names that have benefited from these news to trade up to new highs.

Gold has been strong lately, and gold stocks have been following gold's lead. Gold had a very strong day yesterday, with prices breaking through a new record for the second straight day. Josh Bridges, analyst at JP Morgan, anticipates the new year would be a strong one for gold as "it must be remembered that gold is typically a late-stage performer."

Continue reading Gold stocks set new highs as gold continues to climb

How to play gold in 2008

A popular play for 2008 is the precious metal Gold. Simply put, investors flee to gold in times of uncertainty. With doubts about the U.S. Dollar, the U.S. economy, and many other fears, gold is becoming a popular idea amongst many fund managers.

The momentum is certainly behind gold. As you can see from the chart on the right, gold just hit a fresh high and has been in an uptrend since late 2006. The commodity began it's strong move with a perfect breakout in mid-2007 during which the metal has run more than 100 points.

The future of gold is certainly hard to call but I believe the commodity should show a positive return in 2008 as the U.S. economy should weaken and doubts about the dollar (and other currencies) remain.

Continue reading How to play gold in 2008

Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-22.6010,428.35
NASDAQ-10.892,165.12
S&P 500-0.871,105.37

Last updated: November 24, 2009: 02:33 PM

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