I just spent the last hour or so looking around the market, trying to find something to buy. I haven't purchased a stock in a while. I'm in the mood. But, you know something, it's pretty tough out there, to state the very, very obvious.

I read a piece today by my colleague Sheldon Liber in which he takes Jim Cramer to task for being too bearish. Sheldon makes some great points. In fact, he inspired me to find something out there. Unfortunately, I came up empty. I mean, I was looking at adding some shares of Marvel (NYSE: MVL) to my existing position in that stock. To be honest, I felt more inclined to preserve the profits in that stock by selling out of the position. Yet, Marvel at under $30 isn't a bad buy, in my opinion. Still, I didn't feel like adding, and that felt completely anathema to my emotional mindset.

I then thought about Disney (NYSE: DIS) and General Electric (NYSE: GE). And Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO). Nothing felt right. Nothing. Why? Well, I just don't see the merit of adding to positions just yet. Simply put, I see us going down instead of up. The market action today in the major indexes is not encouraging at all.

It's funny, because this is a case of the two sides of the same story being right. Cramer is correct in that the selling is not over. Sheldon is correct about there being values out there. But things feel so troubled. I mean, why isn't Coke rallying with all the chaos? Yes, I know many investors are concerned about growth at the company, but shouldn't it be rocketing higher with a defensive premium? Puzzling.

Is the market getting you down? You want it to go up, right? Well, you better settle in and brace yourself for even harder times as an individual investor. That is, if some pundits are correct about the direction of share prices. According to this CNBC page, a Dow of 8,000 is now in play, and gold might be set to strap a rocket on its back and propel itself up to $1,500 per ounce over time. I'm not sure about the gold, but a Dow of 8,000 almost feels like a logical rest stop at this point (but that might be emotion talking). In the end, none of us can tell the future.

I can, however, share with you a wish. And it isn't just my wish. I'm sure there are others out there who have already said this. And, yes, this wish is coming from someone who owns The Walt Disney Corporation (NYSE: DIS), The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO), and General Electric (NYSE: GE). I own them for the long term (except for a separate trading position in GE which completely failed and may turn into another long-term asset), so maybe this wish isn't so mysterious. I want to go back to that "happy" time of October of '87. I want to see the Dow drop over 20% in one day. Preferably, I'd like to see it drop 25%, on Cloverfield-monster-sized volume. How many points would that be? As of this writing, it would be roughly 2,670 points.

What, am I insane? About as insane as the idiots who decided to become risk sponges, I suppose. In all seriousness, we need a crash. We need a reset, a reboot. We need a lot of panic on the street, and a spiking VIX ($VIX.X), to at least begin a bottom formation. If you think we're going to form a bottom without pain, you're wrong. And if you think, at this point, that we can form a bottom without a crash, well then, I won't say you're completely wrong on that count, but I will say that a crash would be better.

The Wall Street Journal reports that the stock market finished the second quarter just above Bear market territory. Does that mean everything's great or that things are going to get worse from here? I think the worst is yet to come and that investors should hold onto their stocks unless they and/or the companies they've bought are going bankrupt. And they might look to buy stocks in the coal and fertilizer industries.

The Journal reports that the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) began its march downward, ending the quarter (including Monday's slim 3.50-point gain) with an overall loss of 912.88 points, or 7.4%, at 11350.01 -- and perilously slightly less than the 20% decline from a recent high that is considered the start of a bear market. It was the third straight quarterly decline and the worst second quarter since 2002.

I think the 20% decline that designates a Bear market is pretty arbitrary. People know that the market has been a disaster. And if earnings matter, it's likely to get worse. The Journal notes that analysts expect earnings at S&P 500 companies to be down 11% for the second period, led by a 60% plunge in financial-sector earnings. Estimates fell sharply as the quarter progressed. On April 1, analysts were expecting a 2% drop in S&P earnings and a 31% decline in the financial sector.

Ted Allrich is the founder of The Online Investor and author of the just released book: Comfort Zone Investing: Build Wealth And Sleep Well At Night. In this weekly column, he'll offer advice to investors who are just getting started.

Of course they can. But they can also get much better. While the stock market, as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average, has rallied from its lows, can it sustain the gain or will investors take this opportunity to reap smaller losses (who has profits these days?) or step up and buy? Here's what will influence them.

It seems all economic news is bad. "Credit crunch" is more common than Captain Crunch around the breakfast table. Banks are hemorraging from bad loans. They're reluctant to make new ones unless the credit is so good and the loan so small that it would be impossible to lose money on it. Most likely the best terms are for those borrowers who deposit all the money they need in the bank first, then borrow it back, but not all of it. The banks want that extra cushion of safety these days. Don't look for the banks to change lending habits soon. More losses are coming. Until they stop, banks will keep credit tight.

We've been on the phone a lot with investors over the past few weeks. I don't know about you but from where we sit, there is a lot of fear in the market. Investors are worried: worried about what's going to be, how low the markets can go, how the dollar will continue to drop, inflation, etc. There's what to worry about.

But, there is a counter-Chicken Little story setting up behind the backdrop of fear. Bloomberg has an interesting piece out this morning entitled "Buy Signals Abound in U.S. Stocks Shadowed by 1970s". Bloomberg reporters draw comparisons with the almost 20% drop in the S&P 500 (Amex: SPY) we've seen since the October highs.

So, are things any different this time?

Well, for one, Bloomberg claims companies in the S&P 500 are trading at their cheapest levels in more than 18 years to forecasted profits. That means investors believe that forecasted profits are going to fall way short of projections. If the world doesn't come to an end, Bloomberg thinks there may be an opportunity here.

Secondly, valuations versus 10 year Treasuries are also lowest in at least two decades.

Investors don't want to hold stocks. I can't blame them. Anyone who's been trying to pick up some value has probably seen their trades go against them.

Today's markets were foiled with worries of counter-party risks, and even the "denying of rumors" didn't manage to help. You know that headlines of "Oil Nearing $108" isn't a huge help there. On the economic front, we saw some old data on January Wholesale inventories being +0.8%, above a forecast of +0.5%.

New York's Governor Eliot Spitzer has been caught up in a prostitution ring, and even though he is no longer Attorney General this didn't even manage to cheer Wall Street up after years of having Spitzer take down insurance companies, Dick Grasso, and more. Below are the day's unofficial closing prices:

• DJIA 11,740.15 (-153.54; -1.29%)
• S&P500 1,273.37 (-20.00; -1.55%)
• NASDAQ 2,169.34 (-43.15; -1.95%)
• 10-YR T-Bond 3.438%; -0.1030 (bonds still trading)

There were a few major standout stocks today, mostly to the downside.

The market bears are looking for cover and one of their leading superstars, Jim Melcher, who runs the Balestra Capital Partners hedge fund, told The New York Sun today that he believes we are heading for the worst recession since the 1930s and thinks the Dow will fall to between 9,100 and 10,400 - another 20% to 30%.

He told the Sun, "I've never seen the market with more risk and what's significant is that the risk is not yet priced in." He believes an investor's stock portfolio should be half what it is now. He expects unemployment to grow dramatically as consumption slows. And, he things the housing market collapse has a long way to go. He told the Sun that with the "burdens of rising energy and food costs, and combined deterioration of the credit markets" average homeowners will not be able to withstand this recession he sees.

So where's he putting his hedge fund's money? He says it's pretty much devoid of stocks except for two ETFs - the Oil Services Holders Trust (AMEX: OIH) and the StreetTRACKS Gold Trust ETF (NYSE: GLD). The rest of his fund management strategy is shorting stocks and certain bonds - mortgage-backed junk bonds. He's using derivatives, put options and credit default swaps. He is also short ABEX, which is an index of residential mortgage-backed securities.

Another key strategy he is employing is foreign currency trading. His favorite currencies are the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen.

Lita Epstein has written more than 20 books including the "Complete Idiot's Guide to Foreign Currency Trading" and "Trading for Dummies."

What happens when the stock market gets ugly and people start panicking? Once the logic prevails, investors gravitate toward defensive stocks. These are generally the ones you eat, drink, and smoke, or the drugs you need as well as the personal care products you use. Here are four of the top picks from my 17 defensive stocks, which are performing far better than the market today. These stocks have the lowest P/E ratios and the most stable income streams (in alphabetical order):

• Altria (NYSE: MO) ($67.83; -$0.44; -0.6%) has a 14 P/E ratio and a 4.4% dividend yield. This was also one of Cramer's TOP 2007 PICKS, but for different reasons.
• Anheuser-Busch (NYSE: BUD) ($49.92; +$0.20; +0.4%)as the beer drinkers play -- don't people drink more beer when they are stressed? The 18.9 P/E and the 2.7% dividend yield are better than most beverage plays.
• ConAgra Foods (NYSE: CAG) ($25.53; -$0.04; -0.15%) has a 16+ P/E and its 2.8% dividend yield is higher than most food suppliers.
• Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) ($61.76; +$0.10; +0.2%) as one of the more beaten up drug and medical names, plus the personal care products angle. The 17 P/E and the 2.7% dividend yield aren't going to kill you.

We are now in the perfect storm for a rate cut after the jobs numbers this morning posted the first drop in four years. Why does the phrase "Be careful what you wish for ..." keep ringing in my ears for all those who wished for a employment poor report so it would compel the Fed into a rate cut. Probably because the DJIA is down over 200 points today -- all of a sudden the weak data is too weak for comfort levels.

There are always other choices in smaller cap names, but investor mentality tends to go for the strength in numbers. Small caps may also not be familiar enough and so most tend to flock to the go-to names that are more established, hence defensive.

Jon C. Ogg produces the Special Situation Investing Nesletter and he does not own securities in the companies he covers.

Wednesday the market spiked 150 points at the end of trading. Thursday, it rose 100 right before trading closed. But today that trick didn't work -- instead the Dow fell about 281 points, according to AP.

AP's explanation is that S&P downgraded the debt of The Bear Stearns Companies, Inc. (NYSE: BSC) because of its exposure to the distressed mortgage and corporate buyout markets. And its Chief Financial Officer Sam Molinaro, described conditions in the credit market as the worst he'd seen in more than two decades.

Similarly bad credit news has been around the markets for weeks. But earlier in the week the market spiked at day's end, as I noted above. Today, not so much. Nobody really knows, except the traders, but my guess is that hedge funds have expected this bad credit market news to tank the market so they shorted it. When the market did not drop as much as expected, they decided to cover their short positions before the close of trading. This last minute buying drove up prices.

Maybe today the hedge fund managers left for their 5,000 acre Hampton estates early. So there was no short covering at the end of the day to give the market a pick me up. Something to think about as you cut your grass this weekend.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has no financial interest in Bear Stearns.

In case anyone is still feeling bullish, Paul Farrell of MarkeWatch has produced a list of 20 triggers that will end what he calls "the aging bull." Here are some of his suggestions for possible "tipping points" that will bring an abrupt end to all this fun. Here are some of the ones I think could be particularly catastrophic:

• Trade imbalance
• Real Estate markets problems
• Skyrocketing Oil
• Surging consumer debt
• Issues of international credibility

Interestingly, I disagree strongly with his concern about "Washington politics in endless gridlock." Isn't that a good thing? If the best government is the least government, what could be better than a bunch of bureaucrats in Congress arguing and accomplishing nothing -- i.e. not spending our money?

Take a look at the list and let us know what you think the top concerns are.

Much of the one-day panic about the market was driven by the fear that falling housing prices will hurt consumer confidence. One aspect of that is accurate. As variable rate mortgages reset, people may lose their homes. Unless, of course, the problem become so wide-spread that banks or the Fed decide that mortgage payments need to be underwritten so that homeowners keep their places and the market is not flooded with cheap real estate.

Another reason that investors are worried is the private equity debt is becoming more expensive. Some of the deals for companies like Chrysler or The Tribune Company (NYSE: TRB) could fall apart. The other side of that worry is that banks may pull out of the largest and most risky deals. That could cause lawsuits, but save financial institutions from billion dollar loses. It could also take the prices of some stocks that were in the takeover pool down. But, a stock that KKR wanted to buy at $100 may be attractive to investors at $80.

Shareholders who have stocks that have done as well as the S&P 500 over the last two years are up 20%. And that does not include dividends. Those stocks may be worth less than they were a week ago. But, if they have not been sold, that really isn't important.

The current market may be an ugly business for day traders, but it may give them a break from sitting in their basements in the dark all day.

They just might be scared out into the sunlight.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

Market sentiment seems to be favoring the bears again. My cursory research indicates that 65% of investors are again thinking about an impending decline while the other 35% are still cautiously optimistic. It's only seldom in these last few weeks that I came across the occasional person who insists that the bull charge, which began in 2002, shows no signs of relenting. Just the fact that there has been a noticeable increase in the past few weeks (even before these past few days of declines) in the volume of discussions and analysis regarding how to recognize a bear market is coming, how to prepare for it's arrival and what to do when it gets here, signals to me that investors are getting skittish. The funny thing is that it's almost a universally accepted fact that no one can truly predict a bear market turn.

I gave a warning a couple weeks prior to the last contraction that I thought one was coming. That quick downward slide in fact happened. I'm now going on record again as declaring that the bear is coming for another swipe. I expect that this time the cut will go deeper and bleed a bit longer. (Indeed, I originally wrote this post after Tuesday's sell-off, but already this downturn is longer and deeper than the last). Last time around, I sent you that message based solely on gut instinct with little else to back it up. This time, however, I'll clue you in to some of my thinking.

Despite the U.S. stock market's continued rally, investors are becoming increasingly more pessimistic.

The AAII Index registered 33% bulls and 45% bears, less bulls and more bears as the market goes higher and higher.

Barron's was also filled with negative sentiment. Steve Leuthold, of Leuthold Group, had little positive to day about the market. In addition, Barron's back-page editorial wrote of the structure bear market and high inflation of the 1970s. Further, even this week's book reviews spread negative vibes. Bubblicious, a history of bubble mania (which sounds like an excellent read), wrote of wildly over extended markets.

Mike Santoli titled his piece "The Bull Battle Fatigue," evidence of which is hard to find since the bull market is showing little sign of ending its upward ascent.

Despite a very good market for 2007, few want to suggest that this is simply a good and healthy bull market. Every rally leads to more and more pessimism.

Wait for the classic sentiment indicates to show too much optimism before becoming negative on the market.

Putting the first quarter behind us, as many wish we would, gives us pause to look ahead in hopes of finding the gems of success that wait for us. Here are some of my areas of interest as dictated by gut instinct. Please, before you groan and wretch and move on to the next post, remember that in defiance of one major writer's claim that no one warned you of the bear(ish) market that passed by this way ... I did.

I had also suggested steering clear of big pharma quite some time ago. You may take note that all but a few of them have, at least temporarily, splattered on the wall. The clear exception I see at this time is Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE), which I consider to be in turn-around mode. I'll even be so bold as to hint that you may want to watch it for some acquisition movement of some kind. Pfizer has a sharp, well-run operation with some fine projects on the table. I like Pfizer and have no reason to change my attitude towards it.

Here are some of my watch words for at least the next two quarters:

• Watch natural fibers including cotton, glass derivations, carbon, and cellulose. Apply liberal amounts of nano-technologies and your world vastly increases in breadth and scope.
• Pay attention to water in all it's forms and applications. You shall benefit if you move it ,use it ,split it, spend it, clean it, or own it.
• Continue to avoid bonds unless your slopping around with bundles of loose cash that you have nothing better to do with.
• Scrap metals remain solid and steady. Beware of mining, at least temporarily.
• Watch for increased use of wood as raw material in things other than home construction. In cost of materials, the dynamics are changing. Stay on top of what the manufacturing sector is hinting towards.
• Look hard at the building and maintenance of diesel engines. I'm receiving reports that biodiesel is having some negative impact on the current trucking fleet. Adaptations in materials and design will be needed soon to accommodate the changes in fuel make up. Be there and be ready.

That's what I have to offer you for right now. At this time I need to make one small apology. I hope those fine people who hold shares in General Electric (NYSE: GE) haven't lost faith in me yet. I promised you $40 per share and I still believe it's coming. Hold tight my friends, nothing good ever comes easy.