Continue reading Bear rally or not, investors seem shock-resistant

Bear rally or not, investors seem shock-resistant originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 08 May 2009 14:20:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

The great debate: Have we reached bottom in the financial crisis, or is there more to come? It's a multi-million dollar question.

Reuters conducted a poll on April 21-27 to get feedback form analysts across Europe and the US. The sobering conclusion was that the recession could last a year or two more. Most said that the worst is yet to come. Their findings stated: "Financial and macroeconomic stability are still some way off and we don't yet have the foundation for a solid recovery."

Continue reading Reuters poll: Recession to last one or more years

Reuters poll: Recession to last one or more years originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 27 Apr 2009 18:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

It is not possible to know what level is the right level to enter the stock market and various analysts, gurus, journalists and economists have been weighing in this week as the market closed at a one month high, with some folks even becoming downright optimistic.

I might add that the true level we have reached is one of amusement to me because we all are trying to call the market bottom. I myself have entered the fray trashing Nostradamus along the way. This is as much hope, as fact, and folks are looking for clues everywhere.

Some are looking at historical precedent for clues. Technical analysts are combing their charts for patterns of market behavior. The uptrend has to be sponsored to some degree by short covering and momentum traders too.

Positive news was reported by Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) which said on Thursday, April 9 that it expects to post a record first-quarter profit of $3 billion, up about 50 percent from a year earlier, due to better-than-expected performance from Wachovia (acquired in December) and a strong performance in mortgage lending. This was all it took to send the market higher even before anyone has actually sifted through the quarterly report for themselves -- not due out until April 22.

I am not surprised that the market is up and I have been putting cash to work for the past six months; but not all at once; not without recognizing that I might be early; and not without a plan. This has included buying WFC most recently at $12.00 and selling naked puts at strike prices of $7.50, $9.00 and $12.00. My most recent post on the subject from last month was Chasing Value: The safest bank in the U.S. -- Wells Fargo.

If you have missed the recent market pop do not fret and do not chase it because it could change direction as many have called this a bear market rally.

What might be most prudent at this point, if you believe that the volatility will continue and the stock market will not see true lasting improvement for a while, is to segment the money you want to put back to work into four or five tranches and invest on a regular basis dollar cost averaging back in over time.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of WFC and I have open options.

Sunday Funnies: The bottom guessing game originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 12 Apr 2009 18:40:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

As I've said before, bear market rallies can be devastating to the short sellers because just as it looks like the market is turning lower, a piece of positive news occurs at a time when the market is most oversold and the shorts run for cover.

This usually drives the market higher with a dramatic explosion of buying, but just as the shorts exhaust their panic buying, the market turns down and eventually buries any new bulls as it dives to its former low.

Continue reading Today's technical outlook: Does the rally have legs?

Today's technical outlook: Does the rally have legs? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Tue, 24 Mar 2009 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

I confess to being surprised by the extent of the current rally, even after many times warning that bear-market rallies tend to be sudden, violent affairs.

Nevertheless, the facts point to the dramatic advance of the past 10 days (the best seven-day rally since 1939) as still nothing more than a rebound following a sell-off that took prices to a level that had to be attacked by bargain hunters and patient investors alike.

Now, however, the easy part is behind them.

Continue reading Today's technical outlook: Too late to buy stocks

Today's technical outlook: Too late to buy stocks originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 19 Mar 2009 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

On Thursday, the S&P 500 closed above the 20-day moving average at 745.10 for the first time since Feb. 9. And it closed above the resistance line drawn from the November low at 741.02 for the first time since Feb. 13.

Volume for each of the days of higher prices increased to more than 1.8 billion shares on the NYSE, and that is a higher-than-average volume for any month this year (1.6 billion average). But volume has been picking up since the breakdown on Feb. 27, at S&P 500 740, when more than 2 billion shares traded.

With a reflex rally now under way, the question is: How far can it go?

Continue reading Today's technical outlook: Enjoy the rally while it lasts

Today's technical outlook: Enjoy the rally while it lasts originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 16 Mar 2009 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Today's technical outlook: How far can this rally go?

Today's technical outlook: How far can this rally go? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 13 Mar 2009 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Tuesday's 6.4% rally on the S&P 500 was the best single day in almost four months. And an internal indicator, the NYSE A/D ratio, registered its highest number since Oct. 13, at 12.75.

Also, volume was above the average volume of the past three months and was more than 40% over Monday's volume on the NYSE.

Most analysts attributed the rally not only to very oversold readings, but primarily to the announcement of profits by Citigroup (NYSE: C) for both January and February.

But if that's the case, why then didn't the market follow through yesterday afternoon when JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) said that it too scored profits in those months?

Continue reading Today's technical outlook: Rally already fizzling

Today's technical outlook: Rally already fizzling originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 12 Mar 2009 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Today, I want to examine what others are thinking about this market.

I read Peter Brimelow's refreshing column, and on Monday he summarized the prognostications of some of the popular letter writers:

"Astrology oriented Crawford Perspectives ... up 50.75% last year, said, 'There are evidences that our whole system is melting down, and that could certainly disturb the normal cyclic flow. We believe that will NOT happen All At Once or Right Now! Even a drowning man gets a last breath or two before going down for the count.'"

Continue reading Today's technical outlook: Bear market rally could end as quickly as it started

Today's technical outlook: Bear market rally could end as quickly as it started originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Wed, 11 Mar 2009 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

Continue reading Today's technical outlook: Is a bear-market rally in the cards?

Today's technical outlook: Is a bear-market rally in the cards? originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Mon, 23 Feb 2009 09:30:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.