Last week's Fed Beige Book report and GDP numbers suggested that the economy may be stabilizing, and this coming week will bring plenty of economic data to confirm or deny that suggestion. On the schedule are consumer credit, construction spending, factory orders, and pending home sales for June, the employment situation, the Import Price Index, and new motor vehicle sales for July, as well as the ISM Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing Indexes for July.

The week will also bring quarterly reports from home builders Beazer Homes USA Inc. (NYSE: BZH), D.R. Horton Inc. (NYSE: DHI), and Pulte Homes Inc. (NYSE: PHM). Yet again, analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect all three to have narrowed their losses in the most recent quarter. However, they've all tended to post deeper-than-expected losses in recent quarters as well. Analysts also expect to see their revenue down 45% or more for the past quarter. They forecast long-term EPS growth of 7% or more, but none of these homebuilders has a First Call consensus buy recommendation, not surprisingly. Short interest is falling off for Beazer and D.R. Horton, and D.R. Horton and Pulte have been reporting positive cash flow from operations, but all three of them said they had more long-term debt than cash in hand last time around. Mortgage insurer PMI Group Inc. (NYSE: PMI) is likewise expected to report that it narrowed its second-quarter loss.

On Wednesday, federal investigators filed mortgage and accounting fraud charges against Beazer Homes USA (NYSE: BZH). The homebuilder will be able to escape prosecution because it agreed to pay $50 million to victims and to accept responsibility for its improper actions.

Beazer found itself charged thanks to its participation in a scheme designed to fraudulently increase its profits and sell homes. Reportedly, the company also participated in an accounting scheme that was designed to "smooth earnings." Thanks to these schemes, homebuyers defaulted on their loans and some neighborhoods saw home values plummet thanks to loan defaults. State and federal investigators have scrutinized Beazer since March 2007, finding that the company's "aggressive sales tactics" contributed to an "unusually high foreclosure rate in many of its local starter-home communities."

It's about that time again: Pepsi vs. Coke. No, not another taste test or another Battle of the Brands. It's time for the next quarterly results from these two soft drink titans.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters anticipate that PepsiCo Inc. (NYSE: PEP), global beverage and snack food giant, will report fourth-quarter earnings this week that are 9.1% higher that a year ago, or $0.88 per share. Revenue is expected to total $12.8 billion, which is 3.9% higher than last year. For the full year, the profit is expected to be $3.67 per share on revenue of $43.4 billion, up from $3.38 per share on $39.5 billion in 2007. PepsiCo's earnings met or beat estimates in four of the past five quarters, but missed by only two cents per share in the third quarter. The consensus recommendation of analysts remains to buy PEP. The share price fell to a 52-week low in January and is now 24.4% lower than it was a year ago. During the fourth quarter, PepsiCo declared a $0.42 per share quarterly dividend, agreed to acquire a Spitz International, and announced investments in China and Mexico.

Last week, Bank of Montreal (NYSE: BMO), one of Canada's oldest and largest banks, reported growth in its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings. But it may be the only one that does, as at least two of the Canadian banks scheduled to report fourth-quarter numbers this week have already released preliminary results that warn of lower earnings due to debt write-downs and trading losses.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expect Toronto-based Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE: CM) to post earnings 42.6% lower than a year ago, or $1.28 per share. CIBC beat estimates by a penny in the third quarter, but missed by a penny in the period before that. The bank faces a class-action lawsuit related to investments in collateralized debt obligations consisting of U.S. subprime mortgages. Shares have climbed 20.7% from a recent 52-week low of $39.52, but are down 37.8% in the past three months.

Toronto Dominion Bank (NYSE: TD), Bank of Nova Scotia (NYSE: BNS), and Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE: RY) are expected to report more modest earnings declines of $1.01 per share, $0.73 per share, and $0.83 per share, respectively. All three Toronto-based banks topped estimates in the third quarter. Toronto Dominion and RBC have recently announced plans to offer shares in order to raise capital. Toronto Dominion and Scotiabank have been trading near 52-week lows, and their share prices are down around 39% in the past three months. But only Toronto Dominion has a consensus buy recommendation from analysts.

MAJOR PAPERS:

• In a move to help cut expenses and save on fuel prices, UAL Corporation (NASDAQ: UAUA), parent of United Airlines, will reduce its 460 airplane fleet by 70 jets. Not yet known is how may jobs will be affected, the Wall Street Journal reported.
• In an all stock deal, J.M. Smucker Co. (NYSE: SJM) is expected to buy Folgers coffee from The Proctor & Gamble Company (NYSE: PG) for an estimated $2B, according to the Wall Street Journal. Folgers, the best selling ground coffee in the U.S., has annual sales of about $1.6B.
• The Financial Times reported that Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc (NYSE: LEH) lost $500M-$700M on some of its hedging positions in Q2, which have contributed to a larger than expected loss that could result in the bank raising more capital by selling a stake to an outside investor. Lehman has begun negotiations with potential investors, including asset managers and Asian banks, sources said.

OTHER PAPERS:

• According to sources, the Rocky Mountain News reported that troubled home builder Beazer Homes USA Inc (NYSE: BZH) is pulling out of Colorado. Beazer, which is being investigated for mortgage fraud by several government agencies, has built homes in the suburbs of Denver and in Colorado Springs.

Imagine home prices falling for another ten years. Consumer spending could be eroded. The mortgage crisis could get much, much deeper. The chances for a long economic slowdown would increase exponentially.

Robert Shiller, a Yale University economist and co-developer of Standard and Poor's S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, told Reuters that declines in home values in the most vulnerable markets could well double the losses recorded thus far. "Based on the futures market for the S&P Case-Shiller Composite Index, we are looking at home prices down another 5 percent in 2008," Shiller said. And that might be on the low end.

That, of course, would be a catastrophe.

If Schiller is right, companies like Countrywide (NYSE: CFC) and home-builder Beazer (NYSE: BZH) could actually fail due to falling home demand and mortgage defaults. Pools of mortgage-based securities held by Wall Street firms could be decimated.

So, Wall Street should keep its fingers crossed. Almost every sign points to things in the housing market getting worse.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com

A look at a list of 52-week lows sometimes signals market sentiment about certain sectors or broader financial trends. Here are a few critical bottoms hit last week:

Level 3 (NASDAQ: LVLT) would seem to be a poster child for the new demand for bandwidth. It has a huge national network covering 48,000 miles and a first-rate customer base including big telcos and cable companies. It also carries a lot of VoIP traffic. The company hit a 52-week low because it has something Wall Street hates right now -- a ton of high-yield debt backed by shaky cash flow. The debt is over $6.8 billion, and LVLT has had negative operating income for each of the past three years. The stock is being sold off just before earnings because any sign of weak earnings is exposure to significant balance sheet problems. Borrowing is not popular these days.

Toyota (NYSE: TM) should be riding high. It has passed General Motors (NYSE: GM) as the world's largest car company and is more profitable than any of its global peers. But, hyper-growth may be catch up with the Japanese company. It slipped from the top spot in the Consumer Reports vehicle reliability survey and had to recall 470,000 cars in its home market. GM's new UAW contract will also make it a rougher competitor.

Beazer Homes USA Inc. (NYSE: BZH) shares are trading higher today after an audit uncovered several accounting errors. Beazer is going to restate its results going back almost a decade. The changes are expected to boost the company's cumulative bottom line, though it will likely reflect a decrease in net income for 2006. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on BZH.

After hitting a one-year high of $48.60 in December, the stock plunged to hit a low of $8.08 in September. BZH opened this morning at $10.50. So far today the stock has hit a low of $10.13 and a high of $10.75. As of 10:35, BZH is trading at $10.22, up $0.29 (2.9%). The chart for BZH looks neutral but improving, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a November bull-put credit spread below the $7.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 11.1% return in just 5 weeks as long as BZH is above $7.50 at November expiration. Beazer would have to fall by more than 26% before we would start to lose money.

The market has turned since my last video update -- with the Fed's recent interest rate cut, now is the time to embrace your inner bull! I discuss buying strategies in this edition of StockWatch: Between the Bells.

Three stocks you should look into:

• First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ: FSLR), a Phoenix manufacturer of silicon-free solar-power modules. FSLR is significantly undervalued, by as much as $40 if you believe Bank of America.
• China Medical Technologies (NASDAQ: CMED), which develops cancer treatments in Beijing. CMED is expanding its operations into the rest of Asia, as well as into Russia and Europe.
• After stalling a bit last month, Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) is pushing higher again, bound for $600.
  

Stay away from home builders like Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV) and Beazer Homes (NYSE: BZH) -- the ongoing mortgage meltdown is not over, and the housing market has yet to bottom out. Until then, also avoid home furnishings retailers, like Ethan Allen (NYSE: ETH).

Lastly, check out Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU), China's leading search engine -- currently trading at $275 and soon to hit $300. Don't think that Google is considering a Baidu buyout? Think again.

Enjoy the video!

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My new book, Ahead of the Curve, is hot off the presses. Here's an excerpt! You can also visit my AOL Coaches site.

With his popularity at an all time low and the very real prospect of the Democrats taking back control of the White House in 2008, President Bush is throwing a lifeline to subprime mortgage holders who are in danger of losing their homes to foreclosure.

The plan would allow homeowners who are 90 days behind in their mortgages to refinance their debt through loans insured by the Federal Housing Administration, a move that will help about 80,000 households. Homeowners also would be able to avoid taxes on forgiven debt under a temporary change Bush is proposing. The President also will call for Congress to raise FHA loan limits to $417,000 in some expensive markets. Interestingly, Bush is rejecting calls to let Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac increase the total value of the mortgages they hold in their portfolio.

Before people talk about the return of compassionate conservatism, it's important to remember that many subprime mortgage holders are speculators or people who bought second or third homes. Nonetheless, the administration had to do something to help people who were hoodwinked by sleazy brokers into mortgages that they couldn't afford.

In a televised address, Bush like Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke stressed that it isn't government's role to bail out speculators. He also argued that the economy "remains strong enough to weather any turbulance."

Regardless, investors took these reports as a positive sign, sending shares of financial stocks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS), Countrywide Financial Corp. (NYSE: CFC) and Bear Stearns Cos. (NYSE: BSC) higher. Homebuilders, including Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (NYSE: HOV), Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL) and Beazer Homes USA Inc. (NYSE: BZH) all gave back their gains from earlier today after the speech.

Something has to be done to help the real victims of this crisis, though I'm not sure whether these moves will be enough to address the subprime problem. The government needs to be sure that it's helping the people who deserve to be helped.

CNBC's Jim Cramer is bearish on most of the housing sector, even predicting the demise of a few major players including DR Horton (NYSE: DHI) and Beazer Homes (NYSE: BZH),. But he believes Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL) will be one of the least damaged companies in the industry. Cramer notes that Toll Brothers is okay because the company only really builds luxury homes – Toll's customers are not high risk loan candidates, and they are not terribly damaged by the mortgage issues surrounding the market right now. If you are inclined to agree, then it could be a good time to get into a bullish hedged trade on Toll.

After hitting a one year high of $35.64 in February, the stock has been beaten down with the rest of the housing sector this year, hitting a one year low of $18.85 earlier this month. This morning, TOL opened at $21.89. So far today the stock has hit a low of $21.26 and a high of $21.96. As of 10:45, TOL is trading at $21.29,down $0.71 (-3.2%). The chart for TOL looks bearish but improving slightly, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.

If you agree with Cramer, then for a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider an October bull-put credit spread below the $17.50 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 11.1% return in just 2 months as long as TOL is above $17.50 at October expiration. Toll would have to fall by more than 17% before we would start to lose money.

TOL hasn't been below $17.50 at all in the past year and has shown support around $21 recently. This trade could be risky if investors don't consider the positive aspects of TOL before panic-selling the stock, but this position could gain protection if the Fed decides to take action to help the credit problem.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

On today's STOP TRADING! on CNBC, Jim Cramer maintained that you have to sell financial into strength. He said that even Citigroup (NYSE: C) could get pulled down by the malaise even though at most it has 5% of its business tied to such issues. It isn't that he hates all financials, it's that he sees the panic selling in anything tied to mortgages at all. Names like Beazer Homes USA Inc. (NYSE: BZH) has big impairments, and it even has an investigation. Thornburg (NYSE: TMA) is another one he'd still sell because even if it isn't tied into the malaise it could still fall. On MasterCard (NYSE: MA), Cramer said that down $18 feels like an over-reaction.

With the past ten days' worth of continued financial stock selling, you could say that Cramer may be calling the bottom. But it is very hard to fight the tape and it will be hard calling any exact bottom on almost any of these financial stocks. I saw today on CNBC where Charlie Gasparino even noted that Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) is getting to a level that it could in theory be thought of as a buyout candidate, but right now until the dust settles it is unlikely that any such offer would be made by anyone. The lawsuits haven't even really started and the waves of downward earnings estimates haven't come from Wall Street itself. Until that happens, this tape is just too hard to fight regardless of fairly recent and longer-term opinions.

After the bell, Beazer Homes (NYSE: BZH) announced it's now being formally investigated by the SEC. According to the company, the SEC is investigating whether any "person or entity related to Beazer Homes has violated federal securities laws." Interestingly, the company is already involved in several lawsuits due to its practices in the mortgage-origination business. In addition, the company fired its chief accounting officer last month because he tried to destroy company documents. Add all these factors up and it seems pretty fishy.

As you probably expected, Beazer's stock was hit in after-hours trading -- currently trading at $17.70 per share vs. opening at $19.65 Monday. Stocks always slide when the announcement of an investigation by the SEC hits the wires because investors become nervous about the company's management's integrity.

Although the very successful hedge fund Moore Capital is involved in the stock, I think investors would be wise to avoid this stock until the clouds clear. While many value investors make tremendous returns betting on stocks under investigation or very out of favor, I think that game is way too risky for most retail investors.

There were several events during the last week that are almost certainly clues to what is likely to happen in certain industries and the economy in general as Wall Street looks forward to the July through September period. The week was dominated by the launch of Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) iPhone and the extended glow for AT&T (NYSE: T), but in the broader picture, the news means very little.

Looking at other news:

Oil closed over $70 for the first time since late last summer. While the news may be good for Exxon (NYSE: XOM) and other big exploration and refinery companies, it will hurt industries from air freight to automotive.

Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) hit a 52-week high, a sign that Wall Street believes the PC industry may have a good second half, especially with Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) also trading near its high point.

An unusually broad number of stocks representing several important industries hit 52-week lows. While it would be expected that home builders like Beazer (NYSE: BZH) would struggle in a poor housing market, Blackstone (NYSE: BX), Circuit City (NYSE: CC), and one of the nation's largest banks, Wachovia (NYSE: WB) also touched bottoms.

Beazer Homes USA Inc (NYSE: BZH): House of Cards?

Home builder Beazer said in a regulatory filing yesterday that it terminated its Chief Accounting Officer for violating the company's ethics policy. Beazer said it fired Michael T. Rand after an internal probe of the company's mortgage origination business. The Atlanta-based company said the action was taken by its board and management after saying Rand violated the company's ethics policy by attempts to destroy documents.

The country's sixth largest home builder is currently under investigation by the FBI and is the subject of several lawsuits. Earlier this year, media reports noted that the company was under federal investigation for alleged mortgage fraud, a charge Beazer has vehemently denied. In May, it announced the SEC was conducting an informal inquiry to determine if the company, or its employees, had violated any securities laws.

Rand's firing is bad news for the Atlanta company, particularly because of the FBI investigation. JP Morgan analyst Michael Rehaut said that Rand's termination "raises red flags regarding the content of the documents in question." It is unclear whether the allegations against Rand will become part of the investigation.

Rand is the second senior official to be fired at Beazer this year. The company dismissed Kenneth Gary, its general counsel, in February for "a pattern of personal conduct" that included violations of company policies. Former CFO James O'Leary resigned from Beazer in March. Shares of the company, whose competitors include D.R. Horton Inc (NYSE: DHI) and Pulte Homes, Inc (NYSE: PHM), fell nearly 8% on yesterday's announcement; shares have fallen more than 40% this year.

Who's responsible for the company's troubles? Rand, the others, or is the company looking for scapegoats?