Those pundits who think guru investor Warren Buffett's time has come and his magic faded away are bolstered by a Bloomberg report that says shares in Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) slumped some 19% since mid-December. Buffett has been hurt by large investments in both insurance and banks, industries that have suffered tremendously.
Lest you think this short-term lack of performance has swayed investors into looking elsewhere to park their money, many investors are looking at the fall in Berkshire stock as a buying opportunity.
According to Bloomberg, Frank Betz, a partner at Warren, New Jersey-based Carret Zane Capital Management said he'd "put a new client in Berkshire right now. [...] It's probably the highest-quality collection of individual companies that's ever been assembled. Long slides are not in the Berkshire Hathaway lexicon."
With the stock market drop, many contrarian investors think that stocks have hit bottom and are very cheap. Buffett, who is sitting on such a large cash position, may be able to take large stakes in solidly profitable yet beaten up companies.
If he decides to put his cash to work, he has the ability to get deals that happen only once or twice in a lifetime. He may end up providing returns that make his previous track record look just average. For the Buffett investors, the best may is yet come.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 7/1/08.
Six months of 2008 are now behind us and the stock market has not been a friendly place to most investors. Stability that was once found in household names that were industry giants is gone, and they have now been brought to their knees.
Many of them were the stocks we might have looked to in the past for stability, so you can be sure I put forward my five candidates with a little trepidation, but forward I go anyway. First a little review is in order.
Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) dropped from around $53 per share last year to around $30 in January and we can buy it today for around $17. Even at that price Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) has downgraded it to a sell and thinks there is more bad news to come. Citigroup was the largest bank in the world. Not any more.
General Motors (NYSE: GM) was the largest car maker in the world. That was before the stock tumbled from $43 to its current $11 range. A crushing blow to long time investors hoping that someone in the company could stop the ship from sinking.
The stock market was down today and the financial sector was hit as hard as anything else. These are the days you want to have your watch-list ready or perhaps your stock alerts triggered. I have been watching Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) for quite some time. Today at $27.00 I received an alert and decided to buy some.
As a value investor I am seeking not to just make a profit but to have as large a margin of safety as possible. That means I do not want to just buy a discounted stock but I want to "steal it". Patience is always in order, and usually is rewarded. That was the case when we watched Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) go from the low $40's to $57 per share and think we had missed the train, only to keep our eyes open as it fell back down to $36 where we pulled the trigger.
Last week TIF did us proud (see: Chasing Value: Tiffany's -- all that glitters) and although I am wrong way too often, I would be greatly surprised to see TIF anywhere near $36 ever again. It has reached $50 since we purchased it in April. The following chart illustrates the recent path of Wells Fargo.
After five months of tracking my 2008 picks, it is rewarding to finally have a breakthrough -- topping the three major stock indices and Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B) too. It has been painful to have to report each month that I was being bested. However, since I have not seen anything contradicting my original rationale for my eight picks I stood my ground.
Moving into positive territory by pennies was Loews Corporation (NYSE: LTR). Among its holdings is a 51% stake in Diamond Offshore Drilling, Inc. (NYSE: DO) that has been doing well as the world remains desperate for more oil and natural gas.
Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) was the other stock to cross the line into the black, while Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO), although improving, remains my worst performer. It is still down almost 28% after five months.
A story yesterday in Business Week, A Mideast Valley of Peace discussed how the development of a $3 billion canal from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea is gaining some traction. There is both Arab and Israeli support for the idea which would bring industry, tourism, and most importantly water through desalination plants to a very thirsty location.
According to the report the ambitious project is being energized by 60-year-old billionaire Itzhak Tshuva, who was born into a poor family of 11 who crammed into a single room after immigrating to Israel from Libya in the 1940s. He went on to build a global real estate empire that includes New York's Plaza Hotel, as well as a recently announced $8 billion luxury hotel, retail, residential, and casino complex on the Las Vegas Strip.
Equally important, the project is getting a warm reception in parts of the Arab world. This so-called Valley of Peace is part of a 520-kilometer (323-mile) corridor being proposed by Israeli President Shimon Peres for regional economic development. Peres says he has received letters of support from both Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Jordan's King Abdullah II. And according to Israeli press reports, Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal -- known for his investments in Western icons such as Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) -- recently told Tshuva that he will support the project through Jordan.
The financial press is trumpeting the latest pronouncement from the Oracle of Omaha: "I believe that we are already in a recession. Perhaps not in the sense as defined by economists. ... But people are already feeling the effects of a recession. It will be deeper and longer than what many think."
I'm a huge fan of Warren Buffett for a multitude of reasons; I've read just about every book in print about his methodology and I would list him among my top three heroes (Gabe Kapler and Perry Como being the other two). But I can say with confidence -- and Buffett would agree -- that he has not become the greatest investor in the world ever on the strength of his macroeconomic forecasts. He applies a bottom-up approach to his investments, looking for strong businesses at reasonable prices. In his shareholder letters he's written frequently about the difficulty of predicting the future for the broad economy, and also emphasized that successful investing does not require such prescience.
He's a smart guy and his prediction could turn out to be right, but going to Buffett for macro predictions is a little like going to Albert Einstein for fashion tips. Brilliance in one area may or may not equate to brilliance in others.
Even if you agree with Buffett's prediction, borrow a line from his playbook: Don't run scared. Focus on investing in companies with competitive advantages at good values.
Last December Chemtura Corporation (NYSE: CEM), a specialty chemicals company with a market cap of about $1.9B, said it might sell itself, and now The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) and Apollo Management are in talks to buy the company, the Wall Street Journal reported.
In part one of a series to help explain the reasons why The Bear Stearns Companies (NYSE: BSC) collapsed, the Wall Street Journal said that the troubled firm was torn apart by executives who couldn't agree on what course to take, including raising capital and slicing mortgage and related bonds from its inventory. And each of about six attempts to raise capital fell part.
OTHER PAPERS:
The American investor and Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE: BRK.A) chief Warren Buffett said the United States is already in a recession that is deeper and will last longer than the public expects, the Economic Times reported.
According to the Telegraph, Barclays Plc (NYSE: BCS) is planning to sell Barclays Life Assurance Company, its life assurance arm, which has over GBP7B of funds under management. Sources believe potential bidders for the unit may include Pearl, Swiss Reinsurance Company (OTC: SWCEY), General Re, Canada Life and XL Re. Market commentators believe that on an embedded value basis, the unit is currently valued at around GBP1B.
Just last week I moped about the lack of new developments in the reported talks between Anheuser-Busch and InBev, saying that as the industry is showing signs of consolidation, BUD seems a little lonely. Well, I may have spoken too soon considering today's reports.
According to Alphaville, the Financial Times' blog, InBev, the maker of Stella Artois, is working on a $46 billion bid, worth $65 a share, for Anheuser-Busch. The sources were not identified, but they indicated "that while extensive work had been carried out on the transaction, InBev was 'not about to push the button.'" There were no official comments.
If the deal is carried out, the second-largest shareholder, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.A), could stand to profit from its 5% stake. Buffett, profit? Nah! Barclay's, by the way, is the biggest stakeholder.
If the companies indeed join forces, they would cover the globe between them, pump out around 350 million hectolitres of beer and other beverages annually. Annual revenues would be around $20 billion and have a market capitalization close to $100 billion.
Since the first approach last October, InBev believes Mr Busch would be more willing to deal as pressure from shareholders have been increasing. And financing, you may ask, in this climate? Well, about $50 billion has been provisionally arranged with JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Banco Santander SA.
Now the question is, do we buy BUD shares at $57, hoping to cash in at $65?
Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE: BRK.A) recent high-profile investments in places like Europe and Israel have led many Oracle of Omaha-watchers to speculate that Warren Buffett is bearish on America.
Not so, says Mr. Buffett. Speaking at a business school in Switzerland, he told members of the media that "We buy ... when other people have a reason to sell. We love buying companies in the U.S."
The Wall Street Journalreports (subscription required) that Buffett also said he would consider future investments in Eastern Europe, but that it is difficult to find acquisition targets that are large enough to be meaningful for Berkshire. He also doesn't feel that the weakened U.S. dollar would make investing in Europe difficult.
There's nothing too surprising here. Buffett has generally pursued a bottoms-up investment philosophy throughout his career (with some style-drift in recent years as Berkshire's cash pile has grown). He looks for strong companies with good management and predictable future cash flow, and I don't think he would write off any region where he can find that because of supposed macroeconomic concerns.
After hitting a one-year high of $37.99 in September, the stock hit a one-year low of $24.38 in January. This morning, WFC opened at $29.64. So far today the stock has hit a low of $28.61 and a high of $29.65. As of 12:05, WFC is trading at $28.71, down 89 cents(-3.0%). The chart for WFC looks neutral and improving, while S&P gives the stock a neutral 3 STARS (out of 5) hold rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a July bear-call credit spread above the $32.50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make an 11.1% return in nine weeks as long as WFC is below $32.50 at July expiration. Wells Fargo would have to rise by more than 12% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
WFC hasn't been above $32.50 since February and has shown resistance around $30 recently. This trade could be risky if the flagging US economy turns around quickly, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by resistance WFC might find at its 200 day moving average, which is currently around $32 and falling.
DISCLOSURE: Mr. Archer owns and/or controls diversified portfolios of long and short stock and option positions that may include holdings in companies he writes about. At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in WFC or BRK.A.
It's that time again! Time to refocus on "my pal Warren's" life's work, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B), which closed yesterday at $4,119.50 and is trading lower, currently at $4,080. That is enough to get my attention after staying on the sidelines for months since I followed it up from our last buy-in around $3,600.
BRK.B shares reached a 52 week high of $5,059 last December and it has been bouncing around ever since with a trend downward.
This is not the time to pounce on the stock. This is the time to prepare yourself to pounce on the stock.
The current Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is 16.4. which is slightly under the current market average, but this is no average company. It actually is rated AAA (for real!) and has been for a long time. Most investors would consider Berkshire a safe haven, unless of course they decided to buy it at the all time high.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) was the big winner among only four that had appreciated. The following indicates commonly used metrics for tracking and comparing stocks.
Reviewing the stocks in order of lowest to highest P/E ratio (TTM):
It is interesting to note that only two of the eight have a below market P/E ratio, while only two are average. On the other hand, four are double the average and beyond, which leads me to believe the overall market consensus is that it is still very early in the game for these stocks and their futures are yet to be determined. The P/E ratios of the four are also the most volatile as are the stock prices.
Over the past year, we have been hearing a lot of bad news about investment banks and insurers. The slumping housing market, credit crunch and subprime mortgage troubles have been leading the headlines, so many of you are probably shying away from financial stocks as almost all the banks have been getting only bad publicity lately.
In the light of those worries about safe investments, CNNMoney is asking us to reconsider our opinions, claiming that there really are some quality stocks in these challenging financial times.
Berkshire Hathaway tops the list, mainly because of its CEO Warren Buffett, who has the experience of surviving previous recessions. While some investors may have impression that the company has a lot of tough times ahead, CNNMoney sees Berkshire with a lot of capital, which could be enough to steer it through the current economic storm. To support this argument, CNNMoney cites Keppler Asset management CIO Michael Keppler, who is convinced that Berkshire will be able to beat the difficult market.
This month saw great improvement after last month's disaster. Having to conclude my findings on a specific month end day, or any day, depending on the news, sometimes distorts results. For example news on March 31 sent the market down and on April first my picks shot up an unusual amount; hopefully the trend will continue.
My riskiest stock pick Newcastle Investment Corp (NYSE: NCT) was down the most in March but recovered about 35% of the loss in April leaving Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE: VLO) the dubious honor of being my worst performer, down over 30% in the first four months of the year.
April showed improvement as many companies reported positive earnings reports or beat expectations.
Most of my picks improved. Higher food prices no doubt helped Bunge Limited (NYSE: BG) which recaptured losses moving up 23% from its recent bottom. My two winners Raytheon Co. (NYSE: RTN), the high tech defense contractor, and Reliance Steel & Aluminum (NYSE: RS) were joined by a third, Anglo American plc (ADR) (NASDAQ: AAUK) which had a 10% swing entering positive territory.
Shares of Hershey Co. (NYSE: HSY) have jumped more than 6% on the news of the $23 billion takeover of Wm. J. Wrigley Co. (NYSE: WWY) by Mars Inc. and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.A) as investors bet that the maker of the eponymous chocolate bar won't stay independent for long.
Hershey, though, is a basket case thanks to soaring commodity costs and hopefully the growing interest in healthier eating. That will heighten the pressure on Hershey management to do a deal with Cadbury Schweppes Plc. or find another sugar daddy (pun intended).
"The deal would have clear strategic logic, as Cadbury, the world's biggest confectionery group, lacks presence in the U.S. chocolate market, while Hershey is looking to expand overseas," according to the news service.
During the first quarter earnings conference call, Chief Executive David West sounded upbeat, saying the company was "making progress, while it is slower than we would like, we do see the initial signs of improving marketplace trends." He has high hopes for new products such as the Hershey Bliss. Investors, though, may not be patient.
The Hershey Trust Co., the chocolate company's largest shareholder, has resisted buyout offers in the past from Wrigley and has vowed to keep the company independent. You have to figure that the trust's board will change its tune at the right price.
Six months of 2008 are now behind us and the stock market has not been a friendly place to most investors. Stability that was once found in household names that were industry giants is gone, and they have now been brought to their knees. 
After five months of tracking my 2008 picks, it is rewarding to finally have a breakthrough -- topping the three major stock indices and 
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It's that time again! Time to refocus on "my pal Warren's" life's work, 
About a month ago I posted 
This month saw great improvement after last month's disaster. Having to conclude my findings on a specific month end day, or any day, depending on the news, sometimes distorts results. For example news on March 31 sent the market down and on April first my picks shot up an unusual amount; hopefully the trend will continue.
Shares of 
The week in preview: New quarter earnings kick-off
Comfort Zone Investing: Keep your recovery expectations real
Will Americans have to slim down to fit into their cars?
