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The Fed decision: almost exactly as expected!

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) issued its statement almost exactly as expected. The language on interest rates is remaining low for an extended period of time remained largely unchanged, and the decision was unanimous.

As I have mentioned earlier, the Fed continues to avoid any potential language which could disrupt the financial markets. Any potentially controversial ideas seem to be reserved for speeches by the Chairman and other government officials.

Continue reading The Fed decision: almost exactly as expected!

If an institution is 'too big too fail,' is it too big?

Amid Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's call for a "credible process" for imposing losses on shareholders and creditors for a U.S. government decision to close down a financial institution, a parallel discussion will have to occur.

Namely, if an institution is 'too big too fail,' does that mean the institution is too big? In other words, should the U.S. government begin a long, incremental process of breaking-up those financial institutions – and other corporations – whose wayward behavior would pose systemic risk?

Continue reading If an institution is 'too big too fail,' is it too big?

Fed's quantitative easing timetable is the big $2 trillion question

MarketWatch Chief Economist Irwin Kellner sometimes boldly goes where no man has gone before, to cite an old Star Trek phrase, and this week he evaluates the U.S. Federal Reserve's dilemma.

And what a dilemma it is: regarding quantitative easing policy, if the Fed withdraws its record cash injections too soon, it could trigger a double-dip recession, Kellner said. Conversely, if the Fed withdraws funds too late, inflation could re-heat. As part of its quantitative easing policy, the Fed's balance sheet has swelled to more than $2 trillion from about $869 billion in 2007.

Continue reading Fed's quantitative easing timetable is the big $2 trillion question

Bernanke seeks a council of regulators to oversee banks

Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke wants a council of regulators to monitor systemic risk in the economy. In addition Bernanke wants all systemically important institutions subject to a consolidated regulator, whether or not the firm owns banks.

To further justify his concept of a council of regulators, Bernanke went on to say: "For both purposes of effectiveness and accountability, the consolidated supervision of an individual firm, whether or not it is systemically important is best vested in a single agency."

Continue reading Bernanke seeks a council of regulators to oversee banks

Closing Bell: An almost disappointment, sort of... (DNDN, AAPL, GE, C, AMR)

The recession is over according to Ben Bernanke. Inflation is staying tame. And the Fed just said we all saw our wealth grow in Q2. Yet today the markets gave back. Based upon many key tech shares hitting 52-week highs and then selling off, this was just a day of traders finally locking in some handy trading profits. The DJIA stayed up for much of the day, but the rest of the key indexes came well off of highs and many went negative. This call for DJIA 10,000 still seems much more likely even if the market showed that not every index has to rise every day.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 9,784.22 -7.49 (-0.08%)
S&P 500 1,065.49 -3.27 (-0.31%)
Nasdaq 2,126.75 -6.40 (-0.30%)

Top Trader Alerts
Top Analyst Upgrades
Top Analyst Downgrades

Continue reading Closing Bell: An almost disappointment, sort of... (DNDN, AAPL, GE, C, AMR)

Closing Bell: Bulls 97, Bears 4 (BBY, CVM, KR, MSO, HD, MOT, S)

Today was another up day and you have to wonder if the woes of the world we all felt a few short months ago are just gone for good. Bernanke said the recession is effectively lower. The inventories are getting low enough that a manufacturing surge could come. And inflationary fears are not scaring traders. If this was a football game, it seems that the bulls keep scoring, and the bears just got a couple accidental safety scores.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:

Dow 9,683.41 +56.61 (0.59%)
S&P 500 1,052.63 +3.29 (0.31%)
Nasdaq 2,102.64 +10.86 (0.52%)

Top Analyst Upgrades
Top Analyst Downgrades
Top Trader Alerts

Continue reading Closing Bell: Bulls 97, Bears 4 (BBY, CVM, KR, MSO, HD, MOT, S)

Comfort Zone Investing: Road signs, good and bad, to navigate the market

Unlike Commissioner Gordon who can send out the Bat signal to call his helpmate against crime, there is nothing investors can do to summon aid in times of stress. They have to go it alone. But they can be armed with intelligence that helps. Here are few of the most prominent data points that will make a difference for all stocks, a macro perspective that should make navigating the stock market highway a little easier.

However, taken on a one-time basis, these aren't going to solve the mystery that is the market. Rather, data has to show a trend before it can be used. Even then, a trend stops and another begins. So even though the trend can be your friend, it can just as easily turn and become your enemy. As they used to say on Hill Street Blues: Be careful out there.

Continue reading Comfort Zone Investing: Road signs, good and bad, to navigate the market

Is Ben Bernanke the doctor who cured the cancer he caused?

There will be thousands of op-ed pieces written all over the world in the next few days addressing President Obama's decision to keep Ben Bernanke on as chairman of The Federal Reserve.

In an op-ed piece in The Financial Times, Morgan Stanley Asia chairman Stephen Roach uses a colorful analogy:

While America's head central banker deserves credit for being creative and courageous in orchestrating an unusually aggressive monetary easing programme, it is important to remember that his pre-crisis actions played an equally critical role in setting the stage for the most wrenching recession since the 1930s. It is as if a doctor guilty of malpractice is being given credit for inventing a miracle cure. Maybe the patient needs a new doctor.


Oh snap!

Roach's piece goes on to explain how Bernanke's hands-off attitude toward inflating asset bubbles was part of the Greenspan ideology that played a significant role in leading to this mess.

Still, most Americans seem to agree with Obama's decision to reappoint Bernanke -- for whatever that's worth. A CNBC.com poll found that 66% think he should be reappointed because he saved the economy from collapse.

Cramer on BloggingStocks: Bernanke halted the wipeout

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says the Fed chairman saw we were in extreme deflation and prevented us from being brought down.

Ben's back!

Hey, it wasn't such a given, especially on the day when we had the jaw-dropping appointment of Denis Hughes, the president of the New York AFL-CIO, named as chairman of the New York Federal Reserve.

When the smoke is cleared you know that Ben Bernanke and not any other official before or after is going to be credited with recognizing what Lehman was and stood for. Bernanke was recessive and complacent pre-Lehman. He presided over an important debating society. He measured things and kicked them around.

Continue reading Cramer on BloggingStocks: Bernanke halted the wipeout

Before the Bell: Futures steady on news of Bernanke's reappointment

U.S. market futures were fractionally higher in pre-market trading this morning, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq contracts trading about one point above fair value.

President Barack Obama is set to renominate Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to another term, and will announce his decision this morning. Fed watchers believe continuity in that office will help markets remain calm, as more questions are raised about the Fed's ability to withdraw its numerous programs aimed at restarting the economy before inflation becomes a problem.

The market also awaits data on Consumer Confidence and the Case-Shiller Home Price Index, both of which will be released later this morning.

James Cullen edits and writes at CollegeAnalysts.com.

U.S. home foreclosures set a new record in July

There is "talk" that the economy is turning the corner, that the recession is history. But some of the numbers on the housing front are frankly frightening. The housing market is in quicksand and still sinking. The newest July numbers are gloomy at best. Let's take a look at them:

  • Foreclosure activity jumped 7% in July from June and 32% from a year earlier.
  • James J. Saccaccio of Realty Trac said: "July marks the third time in the past five months where we've seen a record set for foreclosure activity."

Continue reading U.S. home foreclosures set a new record in July

Bernanke is going on a buying spree with your money

The Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee minutes reveal that the Fed is going on a buying spree. The Fed plans to buy $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage backed securities, $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year, and $300 billion of Treasury securities.

One can only guess from these numbers that the Fed is extremely worried about the financial sector and is still trying to prop up the banks by buying their junk securities to get them off the hook.

Continue reading Bernanke is going on a buying spree with your money

Black Swan guru slams Paulson, Bernanke and Obama

In appearance on CNBC, Black Swan author Nassim Taleb slammed the U.S. government's handling of the financial crisis and argued that none of the systemic problems in the system had been fixed.

"When you have cancer, sometimes it hurts to remove the tumor," he said. "They're not removing the tumor."

"It is a matter of risk and responsibility, and I think the risks that were there before, these problems are still there," he said. "We still have a very high level of debt, we still have leadership that's literally incompetent ..."

Should Obama reappoint Ben Bernanke? Taleb doesn't think so. "Bernanke belongs to a school of economics that is not in synch with the complex system. By having Bernanke there you're rewarding failure."

Meanwhile, three-fourths of investors surveyed recently said that Bernanke has earned another term, but that plays right into Taleb's arguments: by instituting policies that prop up markets, Bernanke has pleased market participants without really having fixed anything long-term.

Check out the video below to watch the whole interview.

Bernanke confident on inflation ... we've heard that before

The U.S. Federal Reserve has an important job for its top dog: be able to say with a straight face that it will be able to control inflation. Bonus points are available if you can claim the ability to do this over the long-term. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke showcased his skills yesterday, claiming that the Fed has everything at its disposal needed to stem inflation for the next few years.

Specifically, he laid out five ways that the Federal Reserve can keep money supply and inflation from spiking, with interest rate management the primary tool. It looks like he's trying to get out in front of inflation concerns early, but only time will tell if he can deliver the goods. For now, keeping inflation contained remains a "top priority."

Continue reading Bernanke confident on inflation ... we've heard that before

Are we in a secular or cyclical bull market?

Are we in a bull or bear market? If you came to this article for an answer, forget about it. If you think you know the answer, forget about it. One of the challenges of trading the markets is not knowing the answer. For example, earlier this year Ben Bernanke of the Federal Reserve announced that the Fed was buying treasury securities, which to all stretches of the imagination would trigger a bull market in treasuries. Now then, if you jumped in and bet the farm, you are the proud owner of a huge losses as the treasury market fell out of bed during recent months.

This is not to say that we shouldn't do our research to determine in our minds where the market is going. There are those analysts who look at long-term trends lasting for several years and sometimes decades. These longer periods are called "secular" trends. Then we have others who look at shorter periods, which are often called. "cyclical" moves. The "cyclical" moves usually fall within the longer "secular" markets.

Continue reading Are we in a secular or cyclical bull market?

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DJIA+17.4610,023.42
NASDAQ+7.122,112.44
S&P 500+2.671,069.30

Last updated: November 08, 2009: 04:29 PM

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