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Bernie's bets: A trio of trades from Schaeffer

Options expert and stock trader Bernie Schaeffer combines fundamental, technical and sentiment-based metrics to select his specific trades.

In his latest The Options Advisor, he looks at a trio of diverse trades: wireless semiconductor play, Broadcom (NASDAQ: BRCM); homebuilder, Ryland Group (NYSE: RYL); and miner, Southern Copper (NYSE: PCU).

"Broadcom has rocketed up the charts in 2009, racking up a year-to-date gain of about 74%. The stock has stair-stepped consistently higher since January, capitalizing on support at its 10-week and 20-week moving averages.

"BRCM's relentless upward momentum has forced many short sellers out of their bearish positions, as short interest on the equity dropped by nearly 20% during the past month.

Continue reading Bernie's bets: A trio of trades from Schaeffer

A trio of technical bets from Bernie Schaeffer

In his 'Master Trading' portfolio, Bernie Schaeffer uses fundamental, technical and sentiment metrics to select trades. Here's a trio of ideas from Schaeffer's Investment Research.

"I have initiated a long position in Office Depot (NYSE: ODP). Price action for ODP has been strong, with the equity gaining more than 108% year-to-date.

"Recently, the equity pulled back to its 20-day moving average. There is heavy out-of-the-money put open interest for ODP. An unwinding of the short positions related to this open interest could provide a tailwind for the stock.

Continue reading A trio of technical bets from Bernie Schaeffer

The long & short of Bernie Schaeffer's trades

Options and trading specialist Bernie Schaeffer selects stocks based on a combination of fundamental, technical and sentiment-based metrics.

His research leads to long trading positions for his Schaeffer's Master Portfolio and short trading plays for his Schaeffer's Short Selling services.

Here's a long at four of his latest trading ideas -- long positions in Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) and VMware (NYSE: VMW) as well as short position in Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) and Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL).

Continue reading The long & short of Bernie Schaeffer's trades

Technicians bet on Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)

Two leading advisors -- both known for an expertise in technical analysts -- are bullish on the prospects for Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ: BWLD), which operates and franchises casual food restaurants in 38 states.

Here's an overview of the stock from Joseph Hargett, an analyst with Schaeffer Investment Research, and Richard Schmidt, editor of The Stellar Stock Alert.

Schmidt explains, "You've got to love the action of Buffalo Wild Wings. Last month, the stock jumped up nearly 25% in one day and continued to move up.

Continue reading Technicians bet on Buffalo Wild Wings (BWLD)

Top Stock Picks '09: World Fuel Services (INT)

This post is part of a special annual report -- Top Stock Picks '09 -- in which TheStockAdvisors.com asked 75 leading newsletter advisors to select their favorite investment for the new year.

"Technically speaking, World Fuel Services (NYSE: INT) is a stock that has shown incredible strength by outperforming the broad market," says Bernie Schaeffer, who chooses the issue as his top pick for 2009.

In his top-notch trading and investing service, Schaeffer's Investment Research, he looks at the company, which provides fueling services to marine vessels in some 1,000 seaports.

"The company estimates it holds more than 10% of the global marine fuels market. It also provides 24-hour fueling service to aircraft at 1,500 airports in more than 160 countries.

"Its aviation fueling business focuses on serving small to medium-sized air carriers, cargo and charter carriers, and private aircraft. World Fuel Services also markets fuel and related services to petroleum distributors operating in the land transportation market.

Continue reading Top Stock Picks '09: World Fuel Services (INT)

Best Stocks for 2008: Contrarian charges up Mastercard (MA)

For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.

"My favorite conservative idea for 2008 is Mastercard (NYSE: MA)," says Bernie Schaeffer, editor of Schaeffer's Investment Research.

"We look for stocks with strong price action, strong fundamentals and evidence of investor skepticism, with the skepticism being an indication that there is sideline buying power that can drive the stock even higher.

"Mastercard fits this profile just about perfectly. In late October, MA reported third-quarter earnings that beat Wall Street estimates by 27%, as credit card transaction growth continued to soar. The earnings report continued a trend of positive earnings surprises, as the company beat Wall Street estimates by an average of 42% in its previous three earnings reports.

Continue reading Best Stocks for 2008: Contrarian charges up Mastercard (MA)

Best Stocks for 2008: Schaeffer lights up First Solar (FSLR)

For 25 years, Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, has surveyed the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is one of 100+ ideas in the Best Stocks for 2008 report.

"Our favorite speculative play for 2008 is First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR)," says Bernie Schaeffer, editor of Schaeffer's Investment Research.

"First Solar is a specialized semiconductor company that is a play on the alternative-energy theme. FSLR designs, manufactures and sells solar electric power modules. With a price-earnings (P/E) ratio of 178 and the stock posting gains of nearly 700% in 2007, investors in FSLR should expect a potentially wild ride.

"Despite the 'internet bubble-like' appreciation in the stock, we think the trend can continue, as this is a company with actual earnings and its share of naysayers. The skepticism is an indication that there is sideline buying power that can drive the equity even higher in the months to come.

"FSLR's third-quarter earnings report was spectacular. Net income of 58 cents per share easily topped Wall Street's estimate of 19 cents per share, sending the stock soaring on the news. The year-over-year earnings growth rate in the third quarter was an outstanding 729%.

Continue reading Best Stocks for 2008: Schaeffer lights up First Solar (FSLR)

Three bets on the 787 Dreamliner

With Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) having now showcased its new 787 Dreamliner, investors might wonder if it is too late to invest. According to three newsletter advisors, there are still upside opportunities. One looks at Boeing itself, one spots value in an aircraft seat and interior designer, and one looks at an aircraft leasing play.

Boeing is a buy for longer-term investors from Bernie Schaeffer, who recommends the shares in his Power Stocks advisory.

Technically, the advisor notes that Boeing recently broke out after a lengthy sideways consolidation. From mid-November 2006 to the middle of last month, he points out that the stock traded in a narrow range between $85 and $92. He explains, "Such long periods of sideways movement can be followed by extended trends."

That level, he now says, should hold as support and should serve as a "foundation for higher prices." Further, he adds, the stock's rise above $100 is "psychologically significant" and should offer additional support for the stock.

The contrarian advisor notes, "Even with the strong fundamental and technical backdrop, Wall Street remains fairly pessimistic. According to Zacks, nine of the 18 analysts rate the stock a 'hold' or worse and three of those have a 'strong sell' rating on it. Any upgrades or upward price target revisions from this skeptical crowd could boost the stock."

Meanwhile, he maintains a target price for the stock is $127 a share. In addition to investing in Boeing itself, there are two ancillary companies that couldl benefit from the success of the Dreamliner.

Continue reading Three bets on the 787 Dreamliner

Earnings preview: Can Nike keep its lead ahead of the pack?

Sprinting into the earnings confessional tomorrow after the closing bell sounds is Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE), the ubiquitous maker of stylish kicks and apparel for fitness-and-fashion-minded folks. According to Briefing.com, analysts with Reuters are expecting the king of the "swoosh" to bank 85 cents per share in its fourth quarter; analysts polled by Zacks expect 86 cents; both projections exceed year-ago estimates of 69 cents per share.

Technically speaking, Nike has been in rally mode since last August, gaining more than 45% in slightly more than 10 months. The stock has benefited from support at its 10-week and 20-week moving averages; while last week's broad-market pullback dropped the stock below these short-term trendlines, Nike has risen 3% today to retake control of these supportive averages.

My mentor Bernie Schaeffer has taught me to always gauge investor and analyst expectations ahead of an earnings release, as inflated expectations can lead to a disappointing reaction following the report. It seems as though optimism is running fairly high on the footwear retailer. Options players are showing a preference for call positions, which means a sense of bullishness, especially among short-term speculative players. Short interest is low -- the latest numbers show a short-interest ratio of just 2.1 days to cover despite a 19% jump in NKE shorted shares. Finally, analysts are already favoring the bullish camp. Recent Zacks data indicates six "buy" ratings and two "holds," leaving precious little room for upgrades.

It is true that Nike's recent uptrend provides some justification for this optimism. But when expectations are bloated, there is the concern that earnings will not be well received, even if they manage to match or exceed analysts' estimates.

Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

Top 20 advisors: Bernie Schaeffer tunes in to RadioShack

Last December, over 100 stocks were featured in our Top Picks for 2007 report. Now, at mid-year, we turn to the 20 advisors whose picks showed the strongest gains to get an update on their previous picks, as well as a new favorite stock for the second half of the year.

Bernie Schaeffer, editor of Schaeffers Investment Research, chose International Securities Exchange (NYSE: ISE) as his top pick for 2007. The stock has risen 40% on news that Deutsche Boerse AG plans to acquire the firm. For those who own the stock, Schaeffer recommends selling.

For his new favorite idea, the advisor turns to electronics retailer RadioShack Corp. (NYSE: RSH). He explains, "The stock has been flying high in 2007, doubling in value in less than six months and moving to a two-year high. Throughout this impressive rally, the stock has enjoyed the reliable support of its 10-day and 20-day moving averages.

"RSH shares have also benefited from their 10-week moving average, which neatly guided the equity higher following a late-April pullback in the shares.

"This performance has clearly dwarfed the accomplishments of the broader retail sector. RadioShack's weekly relative-strength measure, as compared to the AMEX Retail HOLDRs Trust, has been on the rise since January and is now at a 26-month high.

"The company has been impressive in the earnings confessional as well. RadioShack's first-quarter earnings, reported in late April, hit 31 cents per share, well above year-ago results of 6 cents per share and easily better than analysts' consensus view of 14 cents per share.

Continue reading Top 20 advisors: Bernie Schaeffer tunes in to RadioShack

'Put downs': Bearish bets on GOOG and YHOO

Though he says he remains confident in "some major upside" for the general market, options expert Bernie sees downside risk in two popular high tech plays -- Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) and Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO). Indeed, as a contrarian, it is their excessive popularity that to a large extent are the basis of his negative outlook.

Schaeffer explains, "Google, the search Goliath has performed well of late, helping to feed the raging optimism toward the Internet firm. The speculative options crowd's optimism is reflected in GOOG's Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio, which is lower than roughly two-thirds of those taken during the past 52 weeks."

But the "true measure of extreme bullishness," he notes, comes from the analysts. Zacks reports that GOOG has received 16 'strong buy' rankings, four 'buys,' and one 'hold.' Schaeffer states, "Any change of heart from this bullish bunch could result in a wave of downside pressure the shares may not withstand."

Continue reading 'Put downs': Bearish bets on GOOG and YHOO

Macau: Global gaming gains

Macau -- an 11-square-mile territory on the southern coast of the People's Republic of China -- is a "gaming hotbed," notes Beth Gaston Moon, an analyst with Schaeffer's Investment Research. Indeed, Macau saw 2006 gambling revenue up 22% to $6.95 billion. For the first time on record, its gaming revenue exceeded that of Las Vegas.

As the technical analyst -- known for her contrarian investment strategy -- points out, "These figures affirm Macau's status as a region to be reckoned with in the world of blackjack and baccarat." Here, she looks at the investment opportunities in the region:

Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: LVS) was the first stateside company to begin operations in Macau. Moon explains, "In 2004, the company built the Sands Macau, the largest casino in the world (in terms of the number of table games)."

Next in line was Wynn Resorts (NASDAQ: WYNN), which she notes built the Wynn Macau in 2006. A third player, whose casino is slated for construction over the next year is the MGM Grand (NYSE: MGM).

Continue reading Macau: Global gaming gains

Top Picks 2007: Option Advisor speculates on options exchange

Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.

International Securities Exchange Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: ISE) is the top speculative play for 2007 from Bernie Schaeffer, technical trading expert and editor of The Option Advisor. He explains, "ISE is an electronic exchange and the world's largest trading venue for equity options (in terms of volume traded).

"About two years ago, the ISE set a precedent when it became the first U.S. options exchange to debut for public trading. ISE has appeared in the earnings confessional seven times since its trading debut in early 2005. On all of those occasions, the firm has either matched or exceeded Wall Street's earnings expectations.

"Since it appeared on the scene, the stock's path of least resistance has pointed higher, although options players remain wedded to the bearish camp. If the stock continues to advance upon new-high territory, a short-covering situation could be in the offing, eliciting an additional source of buying power.

"Analysts are also skeptical; the most recent Zacks information finds that 10 of the 11 brokerages following the stock have named it a 'hold,' leaving one 'strong sell' rating and nary a 'buy' to be found. The skepticism is palpable on this one, making it a solid contrarian play as 2007 kicks off."

To see Bernie's top conservative investment idea for 2007, click here.

Top Picks 2007: Schaeffer sees solid foundation under Lennar

Each year Steven Halpern, editor of TheStockAdvisors.com, surveys the leading financial newsletter advisors asking for their favorite stocks for the coming year. This article is part of his 24th annual Top Picks Report.

Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) is the favorite conservative investment for 2007 from Bernie Schaeffer, editor of The Option Advisor. He notes, "Lennar, one of the largest homebuilding firms in the U.S., is built on a very solid foundation.

"For more than 20 quarters running, the stock has exceeded or matched analysts' per-share earnings expectations. Despite negative earnings revisions and poor housing statistics during the past few months, homebuilding stocks have actually rallied from their July 2006 lows.

"For its part, LEN is back up near six-month highs. It has been a relative-strength leader when compared to its peers in the outperforming ISE Homebuilders Index. Meanwhile, options players are firmly entrenched in the bearish camp. And, nearly 9% of the equity's float has been sold short.

"Analysts are still leery of LEN, as evidenced by the latest Zacks data. Of the 12 brokerage firms ranking the shares, five have awarded a 'hold' rating while two list the stock as a 'strong sell.' A continued upward drive in the shares could spur some upgrade activity, drawing positive attention toward the equity."

To see Bernie's favorite speculative idea for 2007, click here.

Short-term concerns about the current "Santa Rally"

As the year draws to an end I thought it might be interesting to check in with Bernie Schaeffer, my boss, to get his thoughts on the short-term outlook. I asked him about his near-term outlook and he had three concerns about the action during the next few weeks.

The first concern is based on the level of optimistic comments being made by analysts. Tracking this form of "anecdotal sentiment" is time consuming as it requires constantly staying abreast of what is being discussed, but it offers a look into the mindset of the Street. When the expectations get one-sided, it can be warning sign to watch out for potential disappointments.

The second point of concern comes from the options market. Among other uses, options give investors a way to speculate and hedge. Monitoring the activity can give another perspective on what market players are feeling and expecting. The current data reveal a slant toward optimism as speculators have a preference for calls in some indices. Comparing the relative pricing of call options to put options also suggests optimism, as we have seen a contraction in the typical negative volatility skew we track.

His last point of concern is based on underlying deterioration in the small-cap area. The Russell 2000 Index (RUT) has turned lower after pushing to the 800 level, but most of the attention has been on the narrowly focused strength in blue-chip stocks.

Taken as a whole, it seems that expectations may have gotten a bit ahead of themselves, which opens up the possibility of some short-term volatility. However, Bernie is quick to point out that he is quite bullish about the overall outlook for next year. In BusinessWeek's poll of 80 strategists, Bernie maintains the highest year-end target for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Calling for a new all-time high in the average, he does expect the economy will slow down next year, but believes that is already factored into expectations.

Nick Perry is an analyst with Schaeffer's Investment Research.

Symbol Lookup
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DJIA+19.8110,453.52
NASDAQ+5.262,174.44
S&P 500+3.151,108.80

Last updated: November 25, 2009: 01:24 PM

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