Do stock market analysts take creative writing or are they the ultimate bandwagon guys? The lame information provided by stock market analysts keep providing more fodder for my rants. Last Friday -- Lehman raised Anadarko Petroleum (NYSE: APC) to Overweight from Equal Weight citing relative valuation and strong U.S. gas exposure....well duh!

I have ranted and raved about the poor performance of most analysts for almost the entire time I have been writing for BloggingStocks but the wonders never cease. The stock is at a 52 week high and now they take notice. I don't have their "training" yet I was pushing APC at $40, its low. It closed at $78.15 near its all time high and now Lehman makes the call. To quote a 90 year old Wall Streeter when asked to share what he had learned from his 70 years in the market "Nobody knows nuttin". The following is the two year chart for APC.

The Motley Fool ranted in a similar vain when they discussed a study by Patrick Cusatis and J. Randall Woolridge of Pennsylvania State University that studied 20 years' worth of published earnings estimates made by Wall Street industry analysts. They discovered that analysts were consistently overly optimitsic and that practically speaking, you should ratchet them down to the tune of around 40%; or you'll be sorry.

Sunday Funnies: Analysts must have a great sense of humor originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Sun, 18 May 2008 20:10:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

My stock alert was triggered for Wells Fargo Corp (NYSE: WFC) at $28 per share, two days ago. I did not buy any shares. I would like to own some stock but I'm still hoping for one more dip before I jump in. Having been burned by financial stocks this past year, like many investors, I'm proceeding with caution. It closed yesterday at $28.98.

I suppose I do own some fractional interest indirectly through Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) and the Vanguard Group Inc., the largest (8.8%) and fourth largest (3%) shareholders in Wells Fargo respectively. By the way, insiders own less than 1% of the company so although "my pal Warren" prefers companies where managers have some skin in the game, this one contradicts that philosophy. The respected Chairman CEO, Richard M. Kovacevich, has actually been the largest seller of the stock, which he does through a planned process almost every two months.

Wells 52-week high / low range is $37.00 / $24.38. Although I did not buy any shares yet, I do get the feeling that Wells Fargo may look like a steal in 12 months. It is the fifth-largest bank in the United States. Regular readers of the column know I missed another stock Anglo American.

Perhaps it was childish not buying WFC on Tuesday, but financial stocks and commodities are two very different things right now...

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm. He writes the columns Chasing Value and Serious Money. Disclosure: I own shares of AAUK.

Chasing Value: Wells Fargo may look like a steal in 12 months originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 06 Mar 2008 12:12:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

VeriSign (NASDAQ: VRSN) had excellent performance in 2007. The stock ran from the low $20s to the low $40s, and now has settled in at $37.54. My 2008 price target for VeriSign is $55. It will be an interesting year for this company -- the toll booth of the internet.

I wrote about VeriSign back in late May 2007 when the tenured CEO, Stratton Sclavos, abruptly left the company. Sclavos was CEO for 11 years, having taken the company through its 1998 IPO and many, many acquisitions. Since his quick departure last May, the stock has gone up from $25 to its current price. The market has voted favorably on this CEO's departure. So what makes VeriSign a great buy for 2008?

Continue reading Best Stocks for 2008: VeriSign, the internet's toll booth

Best Stocks for 2008: VeriSign, the internet's toll booth originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Fri, 28 Dec 2007 16:33:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

My eight stock picks for 2008 will not include one of my favorites, Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG) because of recent appreciation in the stock price. Since I am basing my picks on the December 28 close, in two days, it just looks too pricey. The company is not only the leader in producing patented robotic surgical systems; it is the only game in town.

Intuitive Surgical was a strong candidate at $280 to $290, about 20% off it's high, but not at Wednesday's closing price of $335.24. It has a trailing P/E of 109 and a forward P/E of 77 if you believe projections, and I do since ISRG is constantly beating them. However, this stock has a 52-week low of $86.20 and a high of $359.59. That's very high and a 400% bounce has to leave even Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) enthusiasts astonished.

I have written favorably about ISRG in the past 22 months, so perhaps some of my readers have shared in the gains. It is one of the few stocks I have mentioned that does not pay a dividend, but it has beat all estimates every year since I bought it, and is likely to do so again (albeit with fits and starts). It has hardly penetrated its potential market, and already it has grown into a $12 billion company.

At this point, I would definitely put ISRG on my watch list, and perhaps like many volatile stocks, there would be an opportunity to own it at a lower price.

Disclosure: I own shares of ISRG in several portfolios.

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

Chasing Value: Intuitive Surgical on the 2008 watch list originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 27 Dec 2007 13:37:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.

PDS closed today at a price of $15.47 per share near its 52 week low of $15.35, a low set today during the trading day, and 44% off its high of $27.78. The P/E is a trailing figure and is actually higher but the dividend looks secure. The dividends have been paid monthly. The company earned $0.58 for the third quarter implying an annual return of $2.32 if earnings do not slip further. That would give it a forward P/E of 6.68. This is comprable to other energy sector stocks, unless earnings are further eroded. The winter weather makes working PDS's drilling rigs harder. I am looking for the spring thaw to also thaw out its earnings.

Disclosure: I own shares of PDS

Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm.

Chasing Value: Precision Drilling for 10% yield originally appeared on BloggingStocks on Thu, 13 Dec 2007 18:51:00 EST. Please see our terms for use of feeds.