Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) is out with earnings and they are solid. The company reported that net income more than doubled from Q2 '07, to $2.77 billion. Adjusted net income came in at 55 cents, a penny above estimates. MarketWatch reports, "Pfizer said it reaffirmed its full-Year 2008 revenue and adjusted net income targets. It's on track to achieve its total cost-reduction target."
The stock may very well trade up on this news. Keep in mind that while shares haven't performed well, with a 7% dividend yield, the stock may be an interesting play for investors looking for both income and a potential turnaround story.
Aaron Katsman is the lead Portfolio Manager and Managing Director of America Israel Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 7/23/08.
"The pipelines of most Big Pharmas are bone dry; last year, the FDA approved the lowest number of new drugs (19) since 1983," notes Louis Basenese, editor of The Oxford Club.
"But opportunity always lurks in the wreckage, and one Big Pharma, in particular, is being unfairly punished." Here's his bullish outlook on Novartis (NYSE: NVS).
"Unlike others in the sector, Novartis doesn't suffer from an empty pipeline. It's launched more drugs globally than any other firm in the past seven years. It has more than 100 projects in phase II (or later) trials. And it expects to file at least six new drug applications this year alone.
"Plus, its products cover all bases, from vaccines to specialized drugs to generics to eye-care products, even animal health items. And most are enjoying rapidly expanding sales.
"Moreover, the company maintains a fortress-like financial position that includes a $10.8 billion cash horde. Management keeps raising the dividend, for 11 years and counting. And it recently announced a massive $9 billion stock-repurchase plan, too. Hardly the hallmarks of a sickly stock.
According to Reuters, big pharma concern Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) is planning ahead for growth. The company has been plagued by generic competition and a falling stock price, so management knows that it's got to tell investors something good so that they will realize that the drug maker is still in the game.
Pfizer wants to use the theme of international growth to boost its potential shareholder value. The company is looking at Asia and the emerging markets as catalysts. Can't blame Pfizer for that; not only is that theme not played out yet, but with the weak dollar, shareholders should welcome any aggressive stance in this regard (so long as the company can execute properly). Then there's the pipeline, which Pfizer is aiming to expand, hoping to get as many late-stage trials going as it can.
Shareholders will have to wait and see how Pfizer's rhetoric plays out, but you can't dismiss the stock as an interesting long-term idea. By now, I don't need to tell you that pharmaceuticals and providers of healthcare products will always be in need; in fact, stocks like Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MRK), and Novartis AG (ADR) (NYSE: NVS) are all interesting for this very reason. I happen to be prone to Johnson & Johnson myself, but the thing I like about Pfizer is its juicy yield, which sits well above 5% right now. Also, the stock is near its lows, and it is in a narrow 52-week range. I don't necessarily expect it to rocket higher tomorrow, but if you are looking for a drug company to add to your portfolio, definitely check this one out as a potential value, and keep yourself informed about Pfizer's plans for the emerging markets.
For big pharmaceutical companies, the largest business challenge is that patents are expiring on some of their most popular drugs. If they do not have new "blockbusters" to replace those, revenue is certain to fall. The solution is to raise prices on the best selling drugs and milk them before generics cut sales.
Unfortunately, while this may be a great deal for the companies, it is not so hot for patients and health-care costs. According toThe Wall Street Journal [subscription required], "Pharmaceutical companies increased wholesale prices for the 50 top-selling branded drugs by an average of 7.82% in 2007." Prices on some drugs went up 50% or more.
Of course, the costs to produce these drugs is probably not rising much at all. What is obvious is that drug companies will probably face pressure from the government to keep prices down because the costs of health-care are still rising faster than GDP. The Congress may simply elect to put a cap on how much drug prices can rise. Or, the Feds may allow generics to come into the market sooner to provide alternative treatments that are cheaper.
But why should the government involve itself in an industry's pricing? The answer is that it is for the common good. That leaves out the companies themselves and their shareholders.
When the government interferes with the free market systems, it opens a Pandora's Box. Which industries will be regulated and which will not? Which affect the common good and which do not? Call it socialism, because that is what it is.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) is expected to report EPS on 10/18. GOOG October at the money 570 straddle is priced at $35. GOOG October option implied volatility of 28 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional risk.
Wyeth (NASDAQ: WYE) implied volatility Flat into $5 billion stock buyback. WYE, is engaged in the discovery, development, manufacture, distribution, and sales of products in pharmaceutical, healthcare and animal health. WYE announced a $5 billion share repurchase program. WYE has a market cap of $60 billion. WYE October option implied volatility of 27 is near its 26-week average of 25 according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional risk.
Daily options Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.
Now that Merck & Co. (NYSE: MRK) and Schering-Plough Corp. (NYSE: SGP) both posted better-than-expected second quarter earnings, will investors show some love to big pharma?
Shares of Merck are down about 5% over the past three months while Schering-Plough has eeked out a mere 2.5% gain. Perhaps investors are worried about Merck's Vioxx legal battles, which so far it has largely won, and the controversy surrounding its cervical cancer vaccine Gardisal. Schering-Plough's $14.4 billion acquisition of Akzo Nobel's Oreganon unit may also be concerning some people. Maybe people think that if Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) is up the creek, all big drug companies are in the same boat.
Regardless, both companies posted impressive numbers that should quell the concerns of investors. Their stocks remain pretty cheap. Merck trades at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of 17, slightly cheaper than Schering-Plough's 20.
Merck, based in Whitehouse Station, New Jersey, reported net income of $1.65 billion or 77 cents, up from $1.5 billion, or 69 cents a year earlier. Revenue jumped 5.9% to $6.1 billion fueled by demand for blockbusters such as the high-cholestoral treatment Vytorin which it makes in a joint venture with Schering Ploug. Excluding some costs, Merck earned 82 cents, beating the 72 cent-average estimate of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial. The revenue figure also beat the $5.77 billion, analysts had expected.
Vytorin also boosted results at Kenilworth, NJ-based Schering Plough. Net income climbed to $539 million, or 34 cents a share, more than doubling from $259 million, or 16 cents. Revenue jumped 14% to $3.2 billion. Excluding some costs, profit was 41 cents, beating the conesensus forecasts of 35 cents. Revenue also beat expectations of $3.07 billion.
Wall St. expects Bristol-Myers to have a poor quarter. But, in the language of investing, that may already be "factored into" the price. BMY is in the classic Big Pharma hard spot, with some of its drugs going off patent which brings in generic competition. Two of the company's best sellers, Plavix and Pravachol, fall into this category.
But, all is not lost for Bristol-Myers. It has two newer drugs in the market, Orencia for rheumatoid arthritis and Sprycel for leukemia, and some analysts have high hopes for them.
At $28.50, the shares trade near their 52-week high. To some, that would say the shares should be avoided. But, as The Wall Street Journal (subscription required) pointed out, a number of significant uncertainties at the company are about to be resolved. The company is closer to settling with the federal government on charges that it paid illegal incentives to drug distributors. BMY is also probably close to getting a permanent CEO.
Some of the shorts exiting the stock must have weighed the good against the bad and decided that too many things might go right for the company.
Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) and the other Big Pharma companies keep taking a pasting as their drugs come "off patent" and are greeted by competition from generic drug makers. As really big drugs like Lipitor move into that pool, the old line drug firms could lose billions of dollars in revenue.
But, the champagne was open at Pfizer today. It won a court case against generic giant Teva (NASDAQ:TEVA) over rights to the painkiller Celebrex, which is the world's top arthritis pain-killer. Teva had tried to get the FDA to approve a version for it to sell. Pfizer said this would violate its intellectual property.
Celebrex now belongs to Pfizer until 2015. The more money it can make off current drugs like this, the better the chance that it can invest in R&D to create new drugs for its pipeline. Otherwise, the company is toast along with its investors.
Merck & Co. (NYSE:MRK) must now attract glass-is-half-full types as stockholders.
Who else but supreme optimists would buy stock in a drug maker facing more than 27,000 lawsuits regarding Vioxx, not including the Pennsylvania woman who recently dropped hers? Their faith that Merck will beat these cases is evident in the stock price.
Shares of Merck have jumped more than 39% over the past year, outperforming Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) Novartis AG (NYSE:NVS) and Schering-Plough Corp. (NYSE:SGP). Granted, beating Pfizer isn't that much of a victory, but still, that's a decent move.
Wall Street, which is awaiting Merck's fourth quarter results Jan. 30, expects the stock to climb further. The median target for Wall Street analysts is $48.50, according to Thomson Financial. Opinion, though, remains divided. Eleven analysts consider the shares either a strong buy or buy, 10 rate it a hold, and 3 a sell.
Merck has already said earnings this year are going to be lackluster and Wall Street is taking the company at its word. Analysts are forecasting earnings of 50 cents on sales of $5.38 billion, according to Thomson Financial. A year earlier, the company had a profit of 64 cents and revenue of $5.77 billion.
As Douglas McIntyre pointed out, Merck needs to convince investors that it's not Pfizer in the wake of that company's failed anti-cholesterol drugs. The Whitehouse, New Jersey-based company said last month that it will seek approvals for three important drugs this year and would have four more drugs in late-stage trials by mid-2007.
Also check out some other earnings reports that we're following, and let us know your thoughts on earnings expectations.
Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) announced today that it would cut some 10% of its worldwide work force -- 10,000 jobs -- in an effort to stem costs. The company, which announced better than expected earnings today, hopes to cut up to $2 billion in annual costs to help curtail losses due to generic competition.
It said it will also close three research sites in Michigan and two manufacturing plants in New York and Nebraska. It may also sell another manufacturing site in Germany, and close research sites in Japan and France, according to an Associated Press story in Forbes.
Pfizer, which became a household name in 1998 when it introduced Viagra, is in many ways a textbook example of what happens when a pharmaceutical company becomes reliant on one or two blockbuster drugs to drive growth. Drugs only have patent protection for so long, after which they can fall prey to much cheaper generic versions. By the end of this year, Pfizer will have suffered through patent protection losses on several of its big name drugs, including the anti-depressant Zoloft and blood pressure pill Norvasc.
The company suffered a giant setback recently when it had to pull the plug on clinical trials for its "good cholesterol" drug Torcetrapib, which it had hoped would be in place in time to help bolster revenues lost when its blockbuster drug Lipitor loses patent protection in 2010. Lipitor brings in some $12 billion in revenues.
With nothing sexy coming down its pipeline anytime soon, analysts have said they doubt Pfizer has the virility to push major sales growth going forward. Its only recourse looks to be slashing costs, via layoffs and plant closings, or through acquisitions. The fourth quarter already saw CEO Jeffrey Kindler slashing the U.S. sales force by some 20%.
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) is expecting a competitor to produce a generic version of their popular drug Plavix, and is putting out the word it will vigorously defend its patent rights in the United States and abroad, they said in their quarterly filing with the SEC.
Shares fell $1.56, or 6.9%, to $21.21 in premarket activity after the comments were made. This follows a rough couple weeks for BMY as shares have dropped over 12% since the launching of a investigation in alleged anti-trust activity around this same drug. [The shares have remained at about $20.20 most of the day.]
Plavix is a blood thinner. The needs of public who can benefit from less expensive drugs, and of the companies that seek profits and funds for expensive and speculative R&D, is just about the thorniest issue in capitalism that I can think of. Sooner or later, every drug that proves useful gets knocked off.