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Posts with tag Bill Gross

Using our $810 billion to line Wall Street's pockets

During the Great Depression, Franklin Roosevelt established the Work Projects Administration (WPA) to create work -- such as constructing public buildings, projects and roads and operating large arts, drama, media and literacy projects -- for Americans of all stripes.

Now the W Administration has its own WPA -- but this one only applies to the very wealthiest of Wall Street who are looking for more to do. The three million homeowners who are going through foreclosure won't get that $810 billion ($700 billion is earmarked for buying financial toxic waste and the other $110 billion went to buy the additional votes -- through tax cuts -- needed to get the House to pass the bill).

How will W's Wall Street WPA (WSWPA) program work? It will hire firms such as Bill Gross's PIMCO and Blackrock (NYSE: BLK) to manage a reverse auction to buy that toxic waste. Bill Gross bought $500 billion of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) bonds at distressed prices, "advised" the administration on its $200 billion program to nationalize Fannie and Freddie, and then profited handily when the bailout boosted the value of Gross's bonds. Blackrock is already enjoying our tax dollars as the manager of the $29 billion in Bear Stearns assets which the Fed took on back in March. In total, WSWPA could generate $7 billion in fees (1% of the $700 billion to be spent) for Wall Street.

Continue reading Using our $810 billion to line Wall Street's pockets

If it's Sunday, it must be bailout time

After last Thursday, when the Dow lost 345 points, I speculated that another bailout plan would emerge over the upcoming weekend. As I posted, there was no obvious reason why the market fell so much that day. But one of the possible clues of trouble was that Bill Gross, who manages the $800 billion Pacific Investment Management Co. (PIMCO), was making noises about how the government needed to spend $500 billion to save the housing market.

Coincidentally, Gross -- whose holdings include $500 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) -- is rumored to have "helped" the Treasury with its bailout plan for Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE). And he has profited handsomely from it since he bought the MBS during the panic-- which have risen in value post-bailout.

The reason I felt that a bailout was coming is because this administration has a solid track record of responding to stock market plunges with weekend rescue plans. Evidently it is concerned that Asian markets -- more specifically China's which happens to own $340 billion worth of MBS -- need a weekend bailout plan so when their markets open on Monday they will have something to celebrate. The Big Picture has provided a helpful service by listing the six Sundays in the last 14 months that the government has announced a new bailout plan for the financial markets.

Continue reading If it's Sunday, it must be bailout time

Fannie/Freddie bailout: Winners and losers

To understand why as much as $800 billion in taxpayer money could be at risk in this bailout, it pays to look at its winners and losers. Last month I appeared on CNBC's Power Lunch discussing the potential winners and losers from a bailout of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE).

The bailout has been announced -- featuring a government takeover of their operations, receipt of senior preferred stock worth $1 billion paying 10% dividends, the promise of buying up to $200 billion more worth of senior preferred each quarter to keep their net worths positive, $5 billion worth of open-market mortgage-backed securities (MBS) buys, and a demand that they reduce their MBS holdings by two-thirds over the next several years.

It is clearer today that this takeover was triggered by a report from Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) that Fannie and Freddie needed $50 billion in capital "to offset the companies' combined losses," according to the New York Times. They had reported $84 billion in capital at the end of June, $12 billion more than the minimum required to trigger a government takeover. The Morgan Stanley report suggested that overly optimistic accounting understated their capital needs.

Continue reading Fannie/Freddie bailout: Winners and losers

Five reasons the Fannie/Freddie bailout should not happen -- and some reasons why it is anyway

In the last year, Washington has been shoveling our tax dollars out the door to bail out the money mistakes of multi-billionaires.

It cut interest rates from 5.25% to 2% ,which sent inflation soaring, yet mortgage rates remain higher than they were a year ago. It spent $29 billion to finance the merger of Bear Stearns and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM). And now it's about to spend as much as $800 billion to bailout a few huge investors who own mortgage-backed securities (MBS) issued by Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE).

I find the reasons why this latest bailout shouldn't happen to be far more compelling than the reasons it should. (Here's some background on the mortgage giants.)

Here are five reasons I think this bailout shouldn't happen:

  • Punishes the innocent and rewards the guilty. Why does it make sense for taxpayers -- most of whom are paying their mortgages on time and working hard to support their families despite declining real wages and higher costs -- be asked to dig into their pockets to clean up the errors of a few large institutional investors? Why not let the people who made the bad decisions pay for their own mistakes?

Continue reading Five reasons the Fannie/Freddie bailout should not happen -- and some reasons why it is anyway

Will Fannie and Freddie shareholders be wiped out this weekend?

Three weeks after Barron's reported that a senior administration official -- my guess is it was Hank Paulson -- leaked details of a "rescue" plan for Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) -- Bloomberg News reports that its implementation could be imminent. And in after-hours, shares of both companies are down 20%. If what Barron's reported -- wiping out common shareholders and slashing preferred dividends -- proves prescient, both stocks have further to tumble -- as in all the way to 0.

Bloomberg reports that Paulson met with Ben Bernanke and the CEOs of Fannie and Freddie and the head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency which oversees the two. And they have catering set for the entire weekend. I wonder what they are serving? I think PIMCO bond guru Bill Gross knows. He said, "There's probably a 95 percent chance that the moment that something will happen is Sunday or Saturday," according to Bloomberg.

Yesterday Gross called for the government to use $500 billion to bail out the real estate market. As I posted yesterday, this bailout is for the benefit of people like Gross and China's central bank which owns $340 billion worth of Fannie and Freddie mortgage-backed securities. If you happen to be among the holders of their common or preferred stock -- you are going to lose it all. As I suggested this morning, after the market lost 345 points yesterday, the government needed to announce another rescue plan by Sunday night.

Continue reading Will Fannie and Freddie shareholders be wiped out this weekend?

Pimco's Bill Gross hits the panic button

Bill Gross of Pimco, one of the most respected bond investors in the world, thinks the credit crisis is about to get much, much worse. He also believes that the federal government is the only entity that can save the markets.

Gross's biggest concern is that financial companies will have to keep selling assets to raise cash. With home prices falling, he does not see an early end to this, and that troubles him. According to Reuters, Gross wrote "Unchecked, it can turn a campfire into a forest fire, a mild asset bear market into a destructive financial tsunami."

Gross may be right, but his suggested solution is wrong. He wants the U.S. Treasury to start buying distressed assets to help build a floor for their values. Of course, the funding source for Treasury is the U.S. taxpayer.

Solving one problem by creating a larger one is rarely a good program. There is a great deal of evidence supporting the fact that taxpayers are already stretched to the limit. Job losses are up. Easy credit is gone. Gas, oil, and food cost much more than they did a year ago. The average person, who may already be unable to handle his own financial burdens, can hardly be asked to help support the purchase of assets being sold by large financial institutions.

If Gross's vision about the future of the credit markets is right, the financial system is only at the beginning of a growing disaster. But, turning to the U.S. citizen for cash is like looking through a man's pockets for a spare change. All the more valuable paper money has been spent.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Best bond fund bets: Core picks for income investors

"We've added two bond fund's to our buy list: PIMCO Total Return (PTTDX) and Loomis Sayles Bond (LSBRX)," says Mark Salzinger.

The editor of The No-Load Fund Investor explains, "We favor both funds for many of the same reasons: both have experienced, top-flight management supported by robust credit-research staffs." Here's his review.

"Both bond funds have performed strongly over the long-term and during recent market turbulence. And each has a relatively open mandate that allows their respective management teams the flexibility to scoop up attractive bonds from diverse sectors of the bond market in pursuit of both capital appreciation and income.

"PIMCO Total Return is the world's biggest bond fund, and second large mutual fund of any stripe, with $128 billion in assets. The fund's popularity is a product of the outstanding track record and enormous reputation of its manager, Bill Gross. Its 10-year annualized return of 6% puts the fund in the top 5% of all intermediate-term bond funds over that time.

Continue reading Best bond fund bets: Core picks for income investors

Two more national banks fail, number will rise sharply

The FDIC took over two more banks. According to The Wall Street Journal (subscription required), "The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, a division of the Treasury Department, revoked the charters of First National Bank of Nevada, based in Reno, Nev., and First Heritage Bank of Newport Beach, Calif. The FDIC was appointed receiver of both banks." The Nevada bank had over $3 billion in deposits.

Current estimates are that less than 100 banks will fail during the current credit crisis, a much smaller number than closed during the saving and loan debacle of the late 1980s.

But, those estimates may be low. Bill Gross, an extremely prominent investor and head of Pimco, recently wrote that total losses related to the housing market will hit $1 trillion. About $450 billion of those write-downs have made it through the system. That leaves a potentially massive burden on the banking system going forward.

The idea that only 100 banks will fail in the next year is wishful thinking.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

PIMCO's Gross says U.S. mortgage write-downs to total $1 trillion

Continued declines in U.S. home prices will force financial firms to write down $1 trillion from their balance sheets, Pacific Investment Management Co.'s Bill Gross said in commentary published Thursday.

Further, Gross, who manages the world's largest bond fund, said the write-downs will constrict bank lending and require asset sales, and that either of which will affect economic growth.

Also, Gross called federal housing assistance legislation currently up for debate in the U.S. Senate following U.S. House approval Wednesday "the best way to begin the long journey back to normalcy," in the housing sector.

The legislation includes provisions that grant the U.S. Treasury the authority - - for 18 months - - to extend an unlimited line of credit and/or to buy shares in - - Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE), marketwatch.com reported Thursday. Fannie and Freddie own or guarantee about one-half of the $12 trillion U.S. mortgage market.

Continue reading PIMCO's Gross says U.S. mortgage write-downs to total $1 trillion

Pimco's Bill Gross likes U.S. dollar over euro

Investors have watched the precipitous fall in the U.S. dollar over the past few years with trepidation. Investors in Israeli stocks trading in the U.S. have witnessed the once-lowly shekel dominate the dollar (and most other global currencies) over the past two years. It looks, at least from some uber-investors' perspectives, that the dollar may be set to reverse -- a boon for those companies with significant sales in the U.S.

Bloomberg has an article out this morning saying that bond guru, Bill Gross, the manager of the world's largest bond fund, the $129 billion Pimco Total Return Fund, has turned negative on the euro for the first time since its inception in 1999. According to the article, Gross's firm, Pimco, believes that according to purchasing power parity, a measure used to account for differences in exchange rates across countries, the euro is overvalued by 30%.

And Gross isn't the only one who is concerned that Europe may suffer a bigger slowdown than the U.S. in a world confronted with slowing growth and financial snafus. The same Bloomberg article says that according to a recent poll conducted by Bloomberg of global strategists, many think that the euro has seen its day and that the dollar is poised for a rally (hard to believe in the face of Fannie Mae and IndyMac).

Europe's Trichet-led Central Bank has signaled that it may be done raising rates. In fact, given the choice between fighting inflation and re-energizing a sputtering economy, some are betting that the ECB may need to actually lower rates. With a Fed-led plan to bailout the U.S. banking system and the bottoming out of the dollar, it looks like Gross and Co. are betting against the euro for years to come.

Zack Miller is the managing editor of IsraelNewsletter.com and a former equity analyst for a leading multinational hedge fund.

Pimco votes 'yes' on mortgage debt

Perhaps the most well regarded bond manager in the country, Bill Gross of Pimco, is making a huge gamble on mortgage debt. The Pimco Total Return Fund, which invests $130 billion, has tripled its exposure to mortgage debt instruments.

According to the FT, Gross is counting on the US government to partially bail out the housing industry. He told the paper that "his decision to raise exposure to mortgage debt in recent months was based on the US government's implicit guarantee of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, the government-sponsored mortgage agencies."

Of course, counting on the government to do anything is a bit risky, but Gross is probably making a good bet that the US will not let the housing situation slide much more than it has already. The risk to the entire economy is too great.

Gross could be right, and, if he is, Pimco investors stand to make huge returns on the fund.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Bill Gross suggests municipal bonds

In the world of fixed income, as in the world of markets in general, there is almost no one whose predictions are worth listening to.

Bill Gross is an exception and, in an interview with Kiplinger, he gave his bleak outlook on the economy and a tip for investors: We are probably in a recession, and it's not going to be a quick easy one. And what should you do with your money? Well it isn't as exciting as what most gurus will tell you:

The most attractive area, the one that's been tossed away for a number of reasons, is the municipal-bond area. There are hundreds of closed-end municipal-bond funds that trade on the New York Stock Exchange. Many trade at 5% to 10% discounts to their net asset values and at yields of 5%, plus or minus.

Municipal bonds have been tossed away for several reasons. One: they're not bought by the Chinese or by the Saudis. The Saudis have no use for a municipal bond and its tax advantages. That's one of the reasons they haven't gone up in price and down in yield.

His rationale, as always, seems to make great sense. To lean more about how to think like Bill Gross, check out The Bond King: Investment Secrets From Pimco's Bill Gross.

Fund guru says recession has arrived

There are always a few financial pundits that the market listens to: Greenspan, Buffett, and, Bill Gross, fixed income master of the universe and head of PIMCO. "If I had to be bold I'd say we began a recession in December," Gross said in a Financial Times interview, in which he called on the Federal Reserve to bring interest rates down to 3 percent.

Gross has been downbeat about the U.S. economy for some time and thinks the Fed has been sitting on its hands. The bond manager believes that the subprime mortgage problems have done too much to hurt the financial economy and consumer confidence, and that GDP is shrinking.

There are a number of reasons to believe that Gross is right. He tends to look mostly at the housing market, bank defaults, and consumer spending undermined by the mortgage market. But, he could add to his list the fact that the high price of oil is keeping gasoline prices above $3 in most regions of the U.S. Spending for the holidays appears to be at its lowest level in five years. And, the cost of staples like food seems to go higher with each passing month.

Gross is probably right about a recession. His view of the reasons may simply be too narrow.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.

Soros, Greenspan, Gross: More subprime fallout ahead

When financial world's mavens speak - - such as Alan Greenspan, George Soros, Bill Gross - - the markets usually take notice.

And when the mavens speak in unison regarding economic fundamentals, well, a word to the wise: be certain to record those data points before forming your own conclusion regarding the U.S. economy's health.

Soros, in a lecture at New York University, said the U.S. economy was on the verge of "a serious correction."
"I think we are definitely in for a slowdown that I think will be a bigger slowdown than (Federal Reserve Chairman Ben) Bernanke is seeing," Soros said, Reuters reported.

Continue reading Soros, Greenspan, Gross: More subprime fallout ahead

Pimco opens distressed bond fund -- a sign of opportunity?

One good sign of a bottom is when the media is panicking and the shrewdest investors aren't afraid to be contrarians. We may reached the point in the subprime crisis.

According to The Wall Street Journal, Pacific Investment Management Co. (Pimco) is planning to launch a $2 billion distressed-debt fund, hoping to play the role of "vulture" picking up subprime debts on the cheap as weaker hands dump them in panic.

According to The Journal, this could be a sign that credit markets are "beginning to adjust to the market turmoil." Pimco sports an impressive roster of talent, most famously Bill Gross, who has been called the "Peter Lynch of bonds." The firm also just lured Mohamed A. El-Erian back from his role managing Harvard's endowment.

While investors probably shouldn't run in and start buying Novastar Financial (NYSE: NFI) first thing in the morning, this could be a sign that the worst of the subprime woes are over. Savvy investors may want to look into putting money in a high-yield bond ETF.

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Last updated: December 02, 2008: 11:31 AM

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