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From gold standard to no standard: 'Lightspeed inflation'

In one of my previous blogs: Is the stock market spring loaded? I coined the phrase Lightspeed Inflation in reference to the rate at which the government was able to dilute our currency. It is time we stopped referring to the government's over spending as "running the printing presses".

We have reached a point, given our maximum note size of $100, that we would actually be better off if the government did have to print the money. Now they can just add whatever amount they want to the balance sheet electronically.

Continue reading From gold standard to no standard: 'Lightspeed inflation'

Unemployment for Bush appointees is 10 times national rate

This week, Texans watched a meteorite burn up in the atmosphere leaving a few glowing pebbles in the scrub for astronomers to recover. It turns out that when 3,000 people accepted positions in the Bush administration, they thought they were hitching their career wagons to a star. Now, it looks more like their careers were attached to that flaming out meteorite instead. How so?

With the national unemployment rate at 7.6%, the unemployment rate among those Bush appointees is 75%. Or put another way, only about 25% of those 3,000 folks have found jobs. It turns out that this unemployment rate is much higher than for former Presidents Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton staffers -- about half of which had jobs within a month of leaving their government posts.

Continue reading Unemployment for Bush appointees is 10 times national rate

Why the Bush debt-recession will topple Clinton's equity-recession

If you can't pay back the bank, the bank takes your house or your car. If a stock you own loses its value, there's no collateral you can go after to cushion your loss. This is why Bush's debt recession will be far far worse than Clinton's equity one.

The stock market in the last year of George Bush's term is following a pattern that reminds me of the last year of Bill Clinton's. The Clinton market tumble -- where the NASDAQ fell in March 2000, rose through September 2000, and then began a straight down plunge through January 2001 -- preceded a brief recession in 2001. But I think that the Bush recession -- following Dow and broader market quakes in March 2007, August 2007, and the 14% decline since the October peak -- will be much much worse.

The reason? Clinton's recession was driven largely by a collapse in equity prices, while Bush's will be driven by an implosion in the value of debt. Before focusing on what Bush's recession might look like, it's worth remembering that Clinton's was driven by the collapse of the NASDAQ as the dot-com bubble burst. It also involved debt -- $1 trillion worth of borrowing by fiber optic network builders like Global Crossing that went bankrupt when they couldn't pay their debts as their customers, the dot-coms, went belly up.

Continue reading Why the Bush debt-recession will topple Clinton's equity-recession

Facebook, ABC Networks, team up for political education

Remember in 2004 when Sean Combs Puff Daddy P-Diddy Diddy helped champion the "Vote or Die" campaign? Yeah, me neither. But for decades, attempts to get the younger generation to the polls have been critical parts of our major elections. I still remember watching Bill Clinton on MTV in the summer of 1992, lamenting the fact that I was only 18 and unable to vote.

A new President will be elected in about 50 weeks, and Walt Disney's (NYSE: DIS) ABC Networks is planning on using new media to help educate the social-networking crowd about candidates and news along the campaign trail. The network has inked a deal with Facebook -- in which Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) owns a small stake -- to provide news reports and video for the nearly 60 million members of the website. Facebook members will also be able to participate in polls and debates.

ABC and Facebook have announced plans to jointly sponsor Democratic and Republican Presidential debates in New Hampshire on January 5, three days ahead of the critical primary election in the Granite State. Dan Rose, VP of business development for Facebook, told The New York Times that "Through this partnership, we want to extend the dialogue both before and after the debate."

The agreement was not of a financial nature. ABC News will have exposure on an increasingly popular site; Facebook gets free, fresh content for its political section.

Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

Wal-Mart (WMT) called 'eco leader' by for former President Bill Clinton

Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT) has gained a powerful ally in its quest to be known as the greenest company on the planet. Former U.S. President Bill Clinton is trumpeting the company's efforts and practices in the area of ecological sustainability. Clinton's three-day 'Clinton Global Initiative' will end today with a panel on economic growth in the face of decreasing resources and climate change.

Clinton has toured the world as a private citizen touting green strategies and corporate sustainability, so it's no surprise that he's recognized Wal-Mart in this manner. His comments during the Clinton Global Initiative were witnessed by Wal-Mart CEO H. Lee Scott as well. Clinton stated that Wal-Mart alone could set a template on how to reduce waste and increase sustainability to developing countries. That's quite an endorsement.

But, not so fast. Democrats in the U.S. constantly chide the world's largest retailer for its labor practices and health insurance costs, and one of the biggest former Democratic leaders sings its praises? Why sure -- this has nothing to do with labor on the surface. Clinton did say that if the retailer can generate wealth and jobs while reducing its carbon footprint, other companies will follow. I'm not sure how 'being green' will generate jobs (and good ones at that).

Clinton then made several references to the amount of energy saved by Wal-Mart customers buying and using compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs) among highlighting other moves by the company in recent years to minimize the impact it has on the world's environment. On that note, later today I'll be looking at Wal-Mart's recent moves into sustainability and operating in the 'green' in detail, so stay tuned for another edition of The Wal-Mart Weekly this afternoon.

Greenspan has harsh words on Bush

Over the weekend, we had a wide range of "Money Face-Off's" here on Bloggingstocks, and I brought you the face-off between Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke. In discussing Greenspan, I noted that one of the main ways a Fed Chief can stay in power for as long as he did was to keep his Presidents happy. Now that Greenspan is no longer under the thumb of President Bush, he obviously feels no such responsibility, and that is made evident in the harsh comments he has on the current President in his book, "The Age of Turbulence: Adventures in a New World," due to be released today.

Even though the book was not scheduled to come out until today, the Associated Press got its hands on a copy over the weekend and quickly pointed out that the former Fed Chief has some pretty nasty things to say about our current President, as well as on the future of the economy in his much anticipated memoirs.

In his book, Greenspan said that the greatest frustration he had with President Bush was his consistent unwillingness to veto "out-of-control spending." Let's remember that Greenspan is a well-known Republican, so watching an administration ignore party doctrine and move away from small government principals has to hurt a bit, especially when that government is being led by another member of the Republican party.

Continue reading Greenspan has harsh words on Bush

CEO crack: Sumner Redstone's secret to long life? MonaVie

They say money can't buy you time, but tell that to Sumner Redstone, the 84-year-old chairman of Viacom Inc. (NYSE: VIA). He spoke of his addiction to a health-drink in a recent issue of Fortune. He loves it so much, he's pushing it to all his mogul friends.

His beverage of choice these days? It's called MonaVie, a dark-purple drink with a cult-like following. Allegedly chock full of antioxidants, one of its main ingredients is the Brazillian acai berry (pronounced A-sigh-ee), well known among health nuts for its anti-aging properties. It'll set you back $40 a bottle (no problem if you run in Sumner's circles), and it's sold only via private party, like Tupperware. Or Avon.

Redstone told the magazine that he was first hipped to the drink by Viacom executive Bill Roedy on a trip to Germany in January. Then he learned that his butler's sister-in-law was a fan as well. Well, what more endorsement does one require?

He bought a bottle and tried it for himself. Now he's gulping down four ounces a day. "Since I've been on
MonaVie," I haven't taken a sleeping pill," he told the magazine.

So enamored is he of the purple elixir that he slipped a bottle to Bill Clinton and Wolfgang Puck at a recent party, according to the magazine. "Just about every friend I have is on it," he said. Fans include Michael Milken and Boston Red Sox pitcher Jonathan Papelbon.

No reports yet on how Clinton likes the stuff. But it's probably only a matter of time before celebrity chef Puck introduces a meat dish with a MonaVie reduction sauce.

New Bill Clinton book scheduled for September release

Former President (and potential First Man) Bill Clinton is taking another stab at authorship. Possibly following the humanitarian lead of his former right-hand man, Al Gore, the former commander in chief is publishing a book on citizen activism, titled Giving: How Each of Us Can Change the World.

The book will be released on September 4, according to Knopf Publish Group (a division of Random House ... which is a unit of the privately held Bertelsmann AG). The initial print run will total 750,000 copies.

In an accompanying quote, the sax-wielding democrat noted that his observations of workers' devotion to various charitable organizations around the world have proven to him that "almost everyone -- regardless of income, available time, age and skills -- can do something useful for others and, in the process, strengthen the fabric of our shared humanity."

Clinton already has a good track record in the nation's bookstores. His 2004 memoir, My Life, was a leading seller for Knopf; the 957-page book sold more than 2 million copies in the U.S. alone and was printed in more than 30 countries. According to The Washington Post, it managed a fist-day nonfiction sales record of 400,000 copies.

Beth Gaston Moon is an analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research.

Helping the Clintons sell their stock

Bill and Hillary Clinton are liquidating their stock portfolio, , according to the New York Times. Of their eight biggest holdings -- you might consider bidding for two: Time Warner, Inc. (NYSE: TWX) and The Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD).

The reason for their decision to sell the stocks is to avoid a conflict of interest. This spring, a government directive also ordered her, as a presidential candidate, to dissolve her blind trust and disclose all of her assets to the public. The move will cost the couple "substantial amounts" in capital gains taxes and force them to forgo the potentially higher returns from these stocks.

But do these stocks really have that much potential? I don't know since I can't predict the future. Of the eight stocks of which the Clintons own between $250,001 and $500,000, I think they should be happy to sell one, I am on the fence about five and you should consider buying shares of two. Which are which?

Continue reading Helping the Clintons sell their stock

Towel Talk: Will Ron Burkle give Murdoch a run for his money?

Dow Jones & Company's (NYSE: DJ) Wall Street Journal (a.k.a., The Towel) occupies a unique spot in the media firmament. As I pointed out earlier in the year, it changed its format and now looks to me like a Holiday Inn bath towel. Towel Talk offers a perspective on its news and views.

The Towel's union members are not happy about Rupert Murdoch's $5 billion bid for their employer. Neither are some shareholders, such as James Ottaway. The AP reports that the Independent Association of Publishers' Employees has reached out to supermarket billionaire Ron Burkle to make a competing bid.

Burkle, a buddy of former President Clinton who tried and failed to buy Tribune Co. (NYSE: TRB), is likely to treat union members with greater respect than Murdoch who in my estimation is a bit more to the right of the political spectrum.

Assuming that Burkle does come through with an offer, his odds of winning will be enhanced if he satisfies two tests: 1. He pays more money than Murdoch and 2. He guarantees not to meddle in editorial decisions. Up until today, I had not heard any speculation about Burkle's interest so I won't be surprised if new bidders emerge in the next few days.

With The Towel's stock closing 50 cents above Murdoch's price, it appears that investors expect more money on the table.

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates, a management consulting and venture capital firm. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has consulted to News Corp.'s CEO and has no financial interest in Dow Jones.

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Last updated: November 10, 2009: 10:41 AM

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