BillGross posts
FeedPosted Mar 31st 2010 4:20PM by Jon Ogg (RSS feed)
Filed under: Citigroup Inc. (C)

This was set up for a good day, but ADP employment data projected about 23,000 jobs were lost rather than some 40,000 created. This lowered the unofficial expectations for Friday's unemployment data and non-farm payrolls data. Then came the weaker than expected ISM data from Chicago, which effectively sealed the fate for a weak trading day.
Bill Gross of PIMCO also noted that stock and bonds might have sub-par returns for years. With the negative macro-news flow today, a drop of 50 DJIA points after the run up we have seen lately might be considered a win.
Here were today's unofficial closing bell levels:
Dow 10,856.63 -50.79 (-0.47%)
S&P 500 1,169.43 -3.84 (-0.33%)
Nasdaq 2,397.96 -12.73 (-0.53%)
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Top Analyst CallsContinue reading Closing Bell: Could Have Been Far Worse (C, AIB, OXGN, OSTK)
Posted Jan 7th 2010 6:30PM by Connie Madon (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Analyst Reports, Forecasts, Management, Market Matters, Getting Started, Money and Finance Today, Economic Data, Personal Finance, Recession
Bill Gross is one of the world's biggest investors. In his recent monthly letter he cites the dangers of ultra high deficits in the US.
But first, we must cite Gross' comments on the state of our democracy. He said: "Our democracy does not work anymore, or perhaps more accurately, when it does, it works for special interests and not the American people." "When special interests even singular citizens write a check, it represents a perversion of democracy, not the exercise of the First Amendment..."
Here's another priceless quote: Referring to the money spent by health care lobbyists, he said: "What amazes me the most of all is that politicians can be bought so cheaply."
Continue reading Gross Says Deficits Will Push Up Interest Rates and Other Priceless Comments
Posted Apr 17th 2009 4:30PM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: Indices, DJIA, Financial Crisis, Obama Picks
In February I interviewed Bill Gross back when the Dow traded at 7,182. Gross's message? Equities are dead. Or more specifically, in light of his expectation that there would be no economic growth for the foreseeable future, there was no point in risking an investment in common stock since it stands in line behind all sorts of debt for a piece of the cash flows of a company in the event of a bankruptcy.
Interestingly, President Obama spoke to reporters not long thereafter -- on March 3rd to be specific when the Dow was at 6,726 -- and during that talk, he mentioned that buying stocks might be a good deal. Since then, the Dow has risen 21.5% and since Gross recommended staying away from stocks, they've gained 13.8%. The Dow is at 8,175 as of this writing.
Continue reading Is President Obama a better stock picker than Bill Gross?
Posted Apr 9th 2009 10:30AM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: Financial Crisis
Just when I think I have heard it all, they come up with something even more eye-poppingly incredible. That's right folks. First they sucked you into the dot-com boom; then wiped out your tech stocks. Next they urged you to buy houses with money you couldn't pay back -- and those houses plunged in value while the global stock markets lost half their value -- further decimating your net worth.
Now they want to give you the once in a lifetime opportunity to buy the very toxic waste that is sinking the entire global financial system. And if you have a job in state government, your pension fund may be enticed into this financial sludge as well.
Continue reading Wanna buy some toxic waste?
Posted Feb 26th 2009 5:10PM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: Industry, Financial Crisis

Bill Gross is a big deal in bonds -- with $747 billion under management in his PIMCO. Gross emailed me yesterday because he was a bit put off by some of my recent media comments about him. I responded to him by asking him some questions about PIMCO and the general market. He thinks that equities are history and people should buy bonds instead.
Gross is obviously talking his book but in my interview with him, he made a very interesting point. He suggested that since bonds and preferred stock are senior to common stocks in the liquidation hierarchy of a company, in a slow growth environment, there is no upside to stocks, only downside.
Continue reading Bill Gross and the death of equities
Posted Dec 2nd 2008 3:50PM by Tom Taulli (RSS feed)
Filed under: DJIA
While Bill Gross is big-time bond trader for Pacific Investment Management Co., he also has some interesting takes on the equities markets. Unfortunately, his views are fairly pessimistic.
According to Gross, the stock market can be somewhat nuanced. In fact, he compares it to a "fragile flower where price is part perception, part valuation, and part hope or lack thereof."
In his analysis, Gross takes a look at several well-known market metrics. For example, there is the "Q" ratio, which compares the stock market to the replacement costs of the net assets. If below 1.0, then stocks are cheap. Interestingly enough, the ratio is now the lowest since World War II.
Next, there is the P/E ratio. And yes, this is also at historically low levels.
So, it is time to buy up shares? Perhaps not.
Basically, Gross says that we need to account for a myriad of trends. First of all, there is a massive deleveraging of the economy. In other words, there is much less financing to boost valuations.
Another problem: expect much more regulation of the economy, which will likely slow things down.
Oh, and it's a good bet there will be higher taxes.
For the most part, Gross thinks that these trends are "transgenerational." Essentially, the US is moving away from being a financed-based economy and becoming more enmeshed in government meddling (keep in mind that 20% of bank capital is now owned by the US government). The upshot is likely to be slower growth, and in turn, muted stock valuations.
Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook
and The Streetsmart Guide to Short Selling: Techniques the Pros Use to Profit in Any Market
. He is also the founder of BizEquity, a valuation website.
Posted Oct 4th 2008 8:02AM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: Federal Natl Mtge (FNM), Financial Crisis
During the Great Depression, Franklin Roosevelt established the Work Projects Administration (WPA) to create work -- such as constructing public buildings, projects and roads and operating large arts, drama, media and literacy projects -- for Americans of all stripes.
Now the W Administration has its own WPA -- but this one only applies to the very wealthiest of Wall Street who are looking for more to do. The three million homeowners who are going through foreclosure won't get that $810 billion ($700 billion is earmarked for buying financial toxic waste and the other $110 billion went to buy the additional votes -- through tax cuts -- needed to get the House to pass the bill).
How will W's Wall Street WPA (WSWPA) program work? It will hire firms such as Bill Gross's PIMCO and Blackrock (NYSE: BLK) to manage a reverse auction to buy that toxic waste. Bill Gross bought $500 billion of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) bonds at distressed prices, "advised" the administration on its $200 billion program to nationalize Fannie and Freddie, and then profited handily when the bailout boosted the value of Gross's bonds. Blackrock is already enjoying our tax dollars as the manager of the $29 billion in Bear Stearns assets which the Fed took on back in March. In total, WSWPA could generate $7 billion in fees (1% of the $700 billion to be spent) for Wall Street.
Continue reading Using our $810 billion to line Wall Street's pockets
Posted Sep 9th 2008 9:30AM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: Federal Natl Mtge (FNM), Economic Data, Housing, Recession
After last Thursday, when the Dow lost 345 points, I speculated that another bailout plan would emerge over the upcoming weekend. As I posted, there was no obvious reason why the market fell so much that day. But one of the possible clues of trouble was that Bill Gross, who manages the $800 billion Pacific Investment Management Co. (PIMCO), was making noises about how the government needed to spend $500 billion to save the housing market.
Coincidentally, Gross -- whose holdings include $500 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) -- is rumored to have "helped" the Treasury with its bailout plan for Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE). And he has profited handsomely from it since he bought the MBS during the panic-- which have risen in value post-bailout.
The reason I felt that a bailout was coming is because this administration has a solid track record of responding to stock market plunges with weekend rescue plans. Evidently it is concerned that Asian markets -- more specifically China's which happens to own $340 billion worth of MBS -- need a weekend bailout plan so when their markets open on Monday they will have something to celebrate. The Big Picture has provided a helpful service by listing the six Sundays in the last 14 months that the government has announced a new bailout plan for the financial markets.
Continue reading If it's Sunday, it must be bailout time
Posted Sep 8th 2008 9:10AM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: Competitive Strategy, Federal Natl Mtge (FNM), Morgan Stanley (MS), Economic Data
To understand why as much as $800 billion in taxpayer money could be at risk in this bailout, it pays to look at its winners and losers. Last month I appeared on CNBC's Power Lunch discussing the potential winners and losers from a bailout of Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE).
The bailout has been announced -- featuring a government takeover of their operations, receipt of senior preferred stock worth $1 billion paying 10% dividends, the promise of buying up to $200 billion more worth of senior preferred each quarter to keep their net worths positive, $5 billion worth of open-market mortgage-backed securities (MBS) buys, and a demand that they reduce their MBS holdings by two-thirds over the next several years.
It is clearer today that this takeover was triggered by a report from Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) that Fannie and Freddie needed $50 billion in capital "to offset the companies' combined losses," according to the New York Times. They had reported $84 billion in capital at the end of June, $12 billion more than the minimum required to trigger a government takeover. The Morgan Stanley report suggested that overly optimistic accounting understated their capital needs.
Continue reading Fannie/Freddie bailout: Winners and losers
Posted Sep 5th 2008 9:01PM by Peter Cohan (RSS feed)
Filed under: Federal Natl Mtge (FNM)
Three weeks after Barron's reported that a senior administration official -- my guess is it was Hank Paulson -- leaked details of a "rescue" plan for Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) -- Bloomberg News reports that its implementation could be imminent. And in after-hours, shares of both companies are down 20%. If what Barron's reported -- wiping out common shareholders and slashing preferred dividends -- proves prescient, both stocks have further to tumble -- as in all the way to 0.
Bloomberg reports that Paulson met with Ben Bernanke and the CEOs of Fannie and Freddie and the head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency which oversees the two. And they have catering set for the entire weekend. I wonder what they are serving? I think PIMCO bond guru Bill Gross knows. He said, "There's probably a 95 percent chance that the moment that something will happen is Sunday or Saturday," according to Bloomberg.
Yesterday Gross called for the government to use $500 billion to bail out the real estate market. As I posted yesterday, this bailout is for the benefit of people like Gross and China's central bank which owns $340 billion worth of Fannie and Freddie mortgage-backed securities. If you happen to be among the holders of their common or preferred stock -- you are going to lose it all. As I suggested this morning, after the market lost 345 points yesterday, the government needed to announce another rescue plan by Sunday night.
Continue reading Will Fannie and Freddie shareholders be wiped out this weekend?
Posted Sep 5th 2008 9:30AM by Douglas McIntyre (RSS feed)
Filed under: Forecasts, Recession
Bill Gross of Pimco, one of the most respected bond investors in the world, thinks the credit crisis is about to get much, much worse. He also believes that the federal government is the only entity that can save the markets.
Gross's biggest concern is that financial companies will have to keep selling assets to raise cash. With home prices falling, he does not see an early end to this, and that troubles him. According to Reuters, Gross wrote "Unchecked, it can turn a campfire into a forest fire, a mild asset bear market into a destructive financial tsunami."
Gross may be right, but his suggested solution is wrong. He wants the U.S. Treasury to start buying distressed assets to help build a floor for their values. Of course, the funding source for Treasury is the U.S. taxpayer.
Solving one problem by creating a larger one is rarely a good program. There is a great deal of evidence supporting the fact that taxpayers are already stretched to the limit. Job losses are up. Easy credit is gone. Gas, oil, and food cost much more than they did a year ago. The average person, who may already be unable to handle his own financial burdens, can hardly be asked to help support the purchase of assets being sold by large financial institutions.
If Gross's vision about the future of the credit markets is right, the financial system is only at the beginning of a growing disaster. But, turning to the U.S. citizen for cash is like looking through a man's pockets for a spare change. All the more valuable paper money has been spent.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Posted Aug 5th 2008 1:05PM by Steven Halpern (RSS feed)
Filed under: International Markets, Newsletters, Mutual Funds
"We've added two bond fund's to our buy list: PIMCO Total Return (PTTDX) and Loomis Sayles Bond (LSBRX)," says Mark Salzinger.
The editor of The No-Load Fund Investor explains, "We favor both funds for many of the same reasons: both have experienced, top-flight management supported by robust credit-research staffs." Here's his review.
"Both bond funds have performed strongly over the long-term and during recent market turbulence. And each has a relatively open mandate that allows their respective management teams the flexibility to scoop up attractive bonds from diverse sectors of the bond market in pursuit of both capital appreciation and income.
"PIMCO Total Return is the world's biggest bond fund, and second large mutual fund of any stripe, with $128 billion in assets. The fund's popularity is a product of the outstanding track record and enormous reputation of its manager, Bill Gross. Its 10-year annualized return of 6% puts the fund in the top 5% of all intermediate-term bond funds over that time.
Continue reading Best bond fund bets: Core picks for income investors
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