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The week in preview: Smooth sailing ahead

If you were paying close attention to this column last week, you would have sidestepped some of the pain and misery investors in many of the stocks discussed have suffered lately. Of late, we have seen the general direction of the markets turn positive, even in the face of news to the contrary.

Perhaps it is because investors have an appetite for stocks, since there seems to be few investment alternatives. Real estate is off limits and the yield on bonds and other fixed-income investments is pathetically low.

The theme for the week ahead is SMOOTH SAILING. In this week's column, we delve into some stocks that will be announcing earnings, and that may benefit from the changing tide of investor sentiment. To be sure, there will be several areas of choppiness as we continue to be bombarded by the stormy realities of a turbulent economy.

Monday, May 19

The chart for Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) looks M'm M'm good. Sporting a smooth line with nary a ripple over the past 12 months, management has done a great job at keeping both company earnings and share price up, even in the face of significant food inflation. While shares have been condensing during the past few months, recently they have been rising with a series of higher highs and higher lows. Be on the outlook for earnings of 44 cents per share on revenue expectations of $1.89 billion. Now that I think of it. That's a lot of soup wrapped in tin-plated steel -- one of many materials that has seen its price almost double in the past six months.

Continue reading The week in preview: Smooth sailing ahead

Analyst upgrades: COT, HIG, ALL and VLO

MOST NOTEWORTHY: Cott Corp, Hartford Financial, Allstate and Valero Energy were today's noteworthy upgrades:
  • Lehman upgraded Cott Corp (NYSE: COT) to Equal Weight from Underweight citing recent management changes, a focus on CSD business, and new product discipline.
  • Bernstein believes the entire non-life insurance group is oversold and that it is time to buy; the firm upgraded Hartford Financial (NYSE: HIG) and Allstate (NYSE: ALL) to Outperform from Market Perform.
  • Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO) was raised to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank on valuation with the stock trading at a -30% discount to NAV while the asset market for U.S. refineries is strong.
OTHER UPGRADES:
  • Goldman added Cisco (NASDAQ: CSCO) to its Conviction Buy List.
  • RBC Capital upgraded BJ Services (NYSE: BJS), Halliburton (NYSE: HAL) and Patterson-UTI Energy (NASDAQ: PTEN) to Outperform from Sector Perform.
  • Friedman Billings upgraded the Semiconductor Capital Equipment sector to Overweight from Market Weight.

Option update - March 22, 2007

Volatility Index S&P 500 Options-VIX up .05 to 12.30

BJ Services Co. (NYSE:BJS) calls active at low implied volatility on M&A chatter.
BJS, a provider of pumping and oilfield services for the petroleum industry, is recently up $0.51 to $27.24 on unconfirmed chatter Halliburton Co. (NYSE:HAL) is interested in BJS. BJS has a market cap of $7.9 billion with long term debt of $499 million. BJS reported annual 2006 sales of $4.3 billion. BJS call option volume of 15,700 contracts compares to put volume of 1,923 contracts. BJS April option implied volatility of 32 is below its 26-week average of 35 according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price risk.

Unisys Corp. (NYSE:UIS) implied volatility indicates Flat risk; UIS mentioned as target of Dell Inc. (NASDAQ:DELL).
UIS, a technology services and solutions company, is recently up $0.16 to $8.59. Dow Jones reported on 3/21 that Michael "Dell said in China that one of his company's top priorities is to boost its services business and that there will likely be acquisitions in that area." Dow Jones listed BE, SAPE & UIS as potential targets. DELL has a market cap of $52 billion. UIS has a market cap of $2.9 billion with long term debt of $1 billion and annual 2006 sales of $5.7 billion. UIS overall option implied volatility of 38 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price risk.

Option volume leaders today are: Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), Motorola Inc. (NYSE:MOT) and Palm Inc. (NASDAQ:PALM).

Note: The Daily Option Update is provided by Stock Options Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com.

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Last updated: December 02, 2008: 11:36 AM

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