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The 'big picture' of our economy

In celebration of Barry Ritholtz's critically-acclaimed new book Bailout Nation, he held The Big Picture Conference, which I was fortunate to attend.

Here are the main points from the most reputable speakers, Congressman Alan Grayson, Nassim Taleb, Doug Kass, and Josh Rosner.

Florida Congressman Alan Grayson discussed how systemic risk is an excuse for socialism and that interconnectedness is the main reason that these institutions are "too big to fail." In fact, these institutions no longer hold social or economic purpose, they are simply too big to exist.

Continue reading The 'big picture' of our economy

Taleb calls the stock market and private equity Ponzi-like

Bestselling author and financial markets guru Nassim Nichola Taleb has a novel idea: Try to make the US economy as different from Bernie Madoff as we can.

Speaking on Bloomberg Television, Taleb said that "We want economic life to be organized to be as distant from that Madoff model as we can." The private equity industry is Ponzi-like because "you rely on new investors to pay off the other ones," Taleb said. "The stock market has some mild Ponzi characteristics. We have to make sure that innocent people are not harmed by this Ponzi-attribute."

Ah. Well that's the role of the SEC, right? Wrong.

"Regulators are fundamentally dumb," Taleb added. "Traders will go around them. I want the system where regulators can be stupid without you and I being harmed by it."

If we're going to try to move away from the Madoff model of economic policy, there are quite a few places we could start, but this one's my favorite: The United States government is buying cars from General Motors (NYSE: GM) to help the company demonstrate viability and secure more government loans.

Or we could take the principled stance and admit that what Madoff is doing isn't different from what Wall Street and the government dose everyday with little fanfare -- and let him get back to work.

Were the mathematicians of Wall Street a blessing or a curse?

Everyone is trying to figure out the roots of the current financial crisis. You can trace it back to one man, Mr. Li, and a formula that was very misused by Wall Street. Let me start by telling you a story that took place some 30 years ago.

I was sitting in my statistics class and the professor walked in and said, "Today we are going to learn about correlations." He explained that correlation is very simple. It is a single number that describes the degree of relationship between two variables, and that there was a formula in our book we could use. "But right now," he said " it's more important that you learn the concept that a correlation is a single number that describes the degree of relationship between two variables," he repeated, as professors often do. "Your answer will therefore always range between -1 and +1."

Continue reading Were the mathematicians of Wall Street a blessing or a curse?

Black Swan author profited in last month's financial collapse

Reading through Nassim Nicholas Taleb's tome, The Black Swan is a tough slog but investors who bought into his strategy for protecting against plunging markets are celebrating their good fortune. (Taleb's book is about highly unexpected events -- the "black swan" refers to the formerly widely held belief that all swans are white which European explorers dispelled when they discovered black swans in Australia.)

Investors in Taleb's $3 billion Universa hedge fund made returns of 65% to 115% in October. How did Universa do this? Universa buys far-out-of-the-money put options on stocks and stock indexes, betting on sharp market falls. Universa keeps 90% of assets in cash so it either breaks even or loses small amounts in most months while waiting for black swans. One Universa killing: American International Group (NYSE: AIG) puts. In late July, it paid $1.29 apiece for AIG put options, which were going to pay off only if AIG stock fell below $25 a share by September (AIG common traded at $26 on July 31st). Universa eventually sold its puts for $21 apiece.

Should you try to replicate Taleb's strategy? It depends. If you believe that the worst is over and other hedge funds are already copying the strategy, then the answer is no. If you think that the markets have further to fall, but that other kinds of stocks will prove most vulnerable, you can buy out of the money puts on those stocks. I am glad to see that someone is making money in this horrible market. Why shouldn't you?

Peter Cohan is President of Peter S. Cohan & Associates. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He owns AIG securities.

Market stumbles on a black swan

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is looking pretty good. In his 2007 book The Black Swan, the futures trader turned philosophy guru warned about the impact that large, fat-tail events can have on financial markets. He has been saying for years that traditional risk management models are inadequate and The Bear Stearns Companies (NYSE: BSC), Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER), and just about everyone else are probably agreeing with him right about now.

The Black Swan has outsold Alan Greenspan's new book -- a testament to the intelligence of readers. With the meltdown in housing, Taleb is finally getting the media attention her deserves.

The latest issue of Bloomberg Markets has a fantastic profile of him, as does Fortune.

Continue reading Market stumbles on a black swan

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Last updated: November 14, 2009: 06:34 PM

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