Canaccord upgraded Rio Tinto (NYSE: RTP) to Buy from Hold citing valuation following the severe price decline following BHP Billiton's (NYSE: BHP) dropped bid.
UBS upgraded Itron (NASDAQ: ITRI) to Buy from Neutral citing valuation and defensive business mix.
Jefferies upgraded shares of HealthSouth (NYSE: HLS) to Buy from Hold on valuation and maintains a $13.50 target.
Merrill downgraded Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) to Neutral from Buy and expects marketing and promotional spending to limit earnings growth in 2009 and 2010. The firm lowered their target to $35 from $42.
Mechel Steel (NYSE: MTL) was cut to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley to reflect declining coal demand.
Friedman Billings downgraded shares of Legg Mason (NYSE: LM) to Underperform from Market Perform on liquidity concerns given the Legg Mason's leveraged balance sheet and falling EBITDA. The firm lowered their target to $7 from $11.
Like just about all other private equity firms, Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) reported a horrible Q3, with losses of $502.5 million, or $0.44 per share. However, the firm was fairly optimistic on the overall value of its sprawling portfolio of companies. That is, the writedown was only about 7%.
As a result, some investors were naturally skeptical – and the stock price of Blackstone continued to slide.
Well, this week, the CEO of Blackstone, Stephen Schwarzman, opined on the matter at a Merrill Lynch investor conference. Basically, he was mostly rosy and thinks there are good valuations in the marketplace. But, paradoxically, he said the Blackstone equity portfolio is in good shape.
And, in general, he has a point. If you take a look at the history of private equity, the best investment periods are in tough times (such as the early 1990s and 2001).
When getting the pulse on the credit markets, the private equity firms have a good sense of things. Credit is the lifeblood of the business. And, of course, the credit freeze has essentially stopped private equity activity.
But, according to some veteran private equity dealmakers, it does look like things are stabilizing. For example, the Blackstone Group LP's (NYSE: BX) CEO, Stephen Schwarzman, is optimistic that the environment is improving. The main reason: the massive government interventions.
And, this week we also got KKR's chief, Henry Kravis, to chime in. However, his sentiments are somewhat qualified. After all, he thinks that the real economy is in a fragile state and that investor confidence is still a big problem. What's more, he believes that it will take awhile for growth to comeback.
In the meantime, Kravis predicts a surge in consolidation in the financial services industry. Interestingly enough, some of the leaders in this trend could be operators like Blackstone and KKR, which don't have leveraged balance sheets.
Emphasizing this point is another private equity bigwig, the Carlyle Group's David Rubenstein. According to him, there's a huge opportunity for private equity firms to provide capital to the ailing financial services industry. In fact, the Federal government has recently relaxed some of the investment rules for such deals, which should make returns even more lucrative and give dealmakers more incentive to get transactions done.
Despite having lots of cash – and little debt – shares of Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) have collapsed along with the other financials. Over the past year, the stock price has plunged from $29.38 to a recent low of $6.88.
But the firm's uber dealmaker, Stephen Schwarzman, is getting optimistic. At the Super Return Middle East conference, he gave a presentation that extolled the benefits of the US's ambitious – and expensive – plan to get things back on track. Yes, he thinks it's a good idea for the Feds to become equity holders in some of the top US banks.
So, why is this die-hard capitalist turning into a government supporter? Well, I guess the globalization of finance requires new approaches. In fact, Schwarzman mentioned that it was critical that the recent interventions have involved a variety of governments.
What's more, by having a strong government backstop, institutions will have a comfort level with counterparty risks. In other words, it's a good bet that we'll start seeing some risk taking again. And, for Schwarzman, it should also mean a re-emergence of buyout activity, which has been virtually frozen over the past few months..
With depressed markets, it would seem that private equity funds have many opportunities to pickup some good investments at compelling valuations. In fact, this environment seems particularly good for top-tier operators, such as TPG, KKR and Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX).
Well, perhaps not.
For example, according to a piece in the Wall Street Journal (subscription required), Blackstone will likely snag a mere $250 million form the California State Teachers' Retirement System (Calstrs) for its next fund. Keep in mind that Calstrs pumped in $1.7 billion in the prior fund from Blackstone.
Is this a sign of a chill? Of course, we won't know for awhile. But, Calstrs is influential. Besides, pensions are probably getting a little edgy as the credit crunch is still in effect.
Although, another concern may be that Blackstone is now a public company. As a result, there is less confidentiality and maybe even more conflicts. For instance, may a private equity fund cash-out of a deal too soon so as to meet the quarterly earnings expectations?
If so, this could be bad for other private equity firms planning to become public, such as Apollo and KKR.
Were you wondering which sector of the U.S. economy would be next to take a dive from the year-old credit crunch? Well look no further, because Barron's [subscription required] reports that private equity firms like Apollo Global Management, Kohlberg Kravis Roberts, and Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) are hurting gators thanks to too much borrowed money and the weak financial performance of the companies they bought. And business is way down, Barron's reports that through mid-August, the 2008 total deal volume "stood at $67 billion, versus more than $400 billion in the corresponding 2007 period."
This does not come as a surprise to me. In February 2007, I appeared on CNBC arguing that private equity had peaked. And I began to question its long-term viability back in August 2006 when Barron'sAlan Abelson quoted my thoughts on the matter. The basic problem is that when debt is cheap, private equity booms and when it starts selling itself to the public, investors should hold onto their wallets for dear life. People who own private equity firms tap their superior knowledge of the coming downturn to convince the public to bail them out by buying their stock.
Barron's cites -- as evidence of trouble in private equity land -- examples of the declining value of the publicly traded debt in companies that private equity took private at too-high prices with too much borrowed money. It writes that bonds of "many companies taken private in the past two years have plunged to 50 cents on the dollar or less, signaling that investors fear they won't be fully repaid. Many companies that were the subjects of buyouts a year or two ago are so grossly over-leveraged that they're struggling simply to pay interest. If they were to default, debt investors would be stung, but equity investors would be even worse off; the value of their holdings would be deeply impaired or wiped out."
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (NYSE: LEH) is poised to lose $2.6 billion and it's trying to dump $40 billion worth of real estate from its books. The Wall Street Journal reports that Guy Moszkowski, a Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER) analyst thinks Lehman could lose $2.6 billion -- while others expect a mere $1.8 billion loss. Lehman normally reports in mid-September but it may pre-announce earnings this month.
I always find it interesting when analysts -- particularly those who work for banks with their own problems -- offer bearish earnings outlooks for their competitors. But I have met Moszkowski and I found him to be both very smart and a straight shooter. The Journal reports that he "more than doubled his loss projection to $2.6 billion and predicts that Lehman will take a $4.5 billion hit from write-downs." It quotes him as saying that an additional markdown up to 20% related to Lehman's remaining $64 billion in mortgage and commercial real-estate exposure "seems like a lot but can't be ruled out." If that were to happen, Lehman might need to raise more capital.
Speaking of that real estate, FT.com reports that Lehman is in talks to dump $40 billion worth of commercial real estate assets and securities. FT.com reports that there is a wide gap in what the potential buyers -- Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) and BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) -- and Lehman think those assets are worth. It also reports that the assets in question consist of mortgages and mortgage-backed securities that Lehman valued at $29.4 billion at the end of May and real estate assets then valued at $10.4 billion.
According to the Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) conference call, it appears that the buyout market is getting somewhat better. For example, in Q2 the firm struck deals like the purchase of the The Weather Channel.
Despite all this, things are still far from good. In fact, Blackstone predicts that the slowdown will continue into 2009 and perhaps 2010. Actually, it looks like the problems are slipping over into Europe and even Asia.
So it should be no surprise that Blackstone's recent financial results are fairly lackluster. The firm posted a net loss of $156.5 million, or $0.60 per share, which compares to a profit of $774.4 million or $0.20 per share in the same period a year ago. Revenues plunged 63% to $353.7 million. Of course, the main reason is that Blackstone hasn't had opportunities to exit investments from its portfolio.
However, Blackstone believes there are juicy investment opportunities. For example, the firm's credit-focused hedge fund, GSO Capital, is investing in distressed debt and even providing financing for Blackstone buyouts. Interestingly enough, the alternative asset management segment saw a 34% spike in revenues to $225.2 for Q2.
Some other good news: Blackstone is still collecting large amounts of assets. So far, the amount is about $113 billion, providing the firm with lots of power to capitalize on things.
When UK mortgage lender HBOS Plc went to market to raise capital, the outcome was a bust. The company sold only about 8% of the securities. In the end, HBOS's underwriters -- Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and Dresdner Kleinwort Ltd. -- were stuck with $7.6 billion in unwanted paper.
In light of this, it's going to be tough for UK financial institutions to bolster their balance sheets. But there is an alternative: private equity.
In fact, it looks like The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) is taking a look at Paragon, a UK mortgage lender. It appears that Paragon is opening up its books to engage in some initial due diligence.
Of course, this is still nascent, and deals can easily fall apart, especially in tough markets. However, investors are certainly excited. In London trading, Paragon's shares spiked 23%.
Even so, the value of Paragon is still down 87% over the past year, so it should be no surprise that the private equity folks sense opportunity.
Struggling mortgage lender Paragon is reportedly in talks with The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) about a potential takeover by Blackstone, the Financial Times reported.
OTHER PAPERS:
The New York Times reported that TiVo Inc (NASDAQ: TIVO) will today introduce a "product purchase" feature in partnership with Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ: AMZN). Under TiVo's plan, the television remote control will be turned into a tool for buying products that are advertised and promoted on talk shows and commercials.
A. F. Petrocelli has done some dealmaking in his career. For example, in October 2004 he sold Prime Hospitality Corp. to The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX).
Now, he wants to do another deal; that is, buy United Capital Corp. (AMEX: AFP) for $23 per share, or roughly $194.4 million ($270 million if you include the outstanding debt). In fact, Petrocelli is the Chairman, President, and CEO of the company.
United consists of a variety of businesses. First, there is a real estate management division, which involves leasing properties to department stores, shopping stores, and so on. Next, there are hotel operations. And, then there are engineered products, which are meant to function in adverse environments (yes, it seems out-of-place).
Taking a look at Capital's latest quarterly report, revenues increased 11% to $18.7 million (apparently, there was a boost from the hotel segment). Net income was $2.7 million, or $0.32 per share.
Actually, it looks like good timing for Petrocelli to buy United. After all, the stock price has gone from $29.16 to 17.58 during the past year.
What's more, Petrocelli will have a lot of leverage on the deal. He currently owns 75.4% of the company.
The Financial Times reported that Bain Capital, The Blackstone Group LP (NYSE: BX) and General Electric Company's (NYSE: GE) NBC universal will acquire The Weather Channel properties from Landmark Communications for approximately $3.2B in a leveraged buy-out. The Weather Channel will be run separately.
A top Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) trader is defecting to GLG Partners Inc (NYSE: GLG), the UK's second-largest hedge fund. Goldman's Driss Ben-Brahim, a partner in the firm and the head of its emerging market trading business, will take over GLG's $1.2B emerging markets special situations fund, the Financial Times reported.
OTHER PAPERS:
Take-Two Interactive Software Inc (NASDAQ: TTWO), which makes video games, will probably sign video game creator Ken Levine to a new contract. The deal would bolster Take Two's argument that its value exceeds the $25.74 per share that Electronic Arts Inc (NASDAQ: ERTS) has offered as a takeover price for the company, The New York Post believes.
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Analyst upgrades:
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GM and Ford ready weak pitches for taxpayer bucks
Cramer on BloggingStocks: A troika of opportunity and trouble 
